Author Topic: ORCHID Week 5 (Read 4397 times)

CHONGS · « **on:** September 30, 2012, 05:11:10 PM »

	Team	Effective Off	Effective Def	Power %
1	FloridaSt.	0.75	0.22	1.
2	Alabama	0.61	0.15	0.95
3	Georgia	0.7	0.31	0.9
4	KansasSt.	0.63	0.27	0.88
5	Texas	0.61	0.29	0.86
6	SouthCarolina	0.54	0.22	0.86
7	Oregon	0.59	0.28	0.84
8	Florida	0.47	0.17	0.84
9	TCU	0.47	0.19	0.83
10	LSU	0.56	0.29	0.82
11	NotreDame	0.41	0.16	0.81
12	MississippiSt.	0.52	0.29	0.8
13	WestVirginia	0.63	0.39	0.79
14	TexasTech	0.51	0.29	0.79
15	TexasA&M	0.49	0.18	0.78
16	OhioSt.	0.46	0.27	0.77
17	LouisianaTech	0.54	0.36	0.76
18	Nebraska	0.59	0.33	0.75
19	ArizonaSt.	0.51	0.25	0.75
20	OklahomaSt.	0.66	0.31	0.74
21	Cincinnati	0.4	0.26	0.73
22	Stanford	0.44	0.21	0.73
23	Oklahoma	0.49	0.27	0.72
24	SouthernCalifornia	0.47	0.26	0.71
25	NorthCarolina	0.55	0.24	0.71

I now have enough data to call the third column the power %.

70% of the Big12 in the top 25!

steve dave · « **Reply #1 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:15:08 PM »

I Love Chingon and I love the ORCHID!

0.42 · « **Reply #2 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:17:57 PM »

An outstanding ranking system by an outstanding poster.

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #3 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:19:49 PM »

THIS IS INCREDIBLE! I LOVE IT AND I LOVE CHINGON!!!

8manpick · « **Reply #4 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:22:34 PM »

Meh, I think it has us a few spots low.

Frankenklein · « **Reply #5 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:23:04 PM »

now it's starting to look like something

Trim · « **Reply #6 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:23:37 PM »

Nailed it.

mancattanite · « **Reply #7 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:29:12 PM »

Sorry if luked... but where can we see more details? As in what do the numbers mean?

SwiftCat · « **Reply #8 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:29:16 PM »

Is there anything better than the ORCHID? If it was a food I would eat it for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. EVERYDAY!

kim carnes · « **Reply #9 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:31:08 PM »

Quote from: mancattanite on September 30, 2012, 05:29:12 PM

Sorry if luked... but where can we see more details? As in what do the numbers mean?

SwiftCat · « **Reply #10 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:31:23 PM »

Quote from: 8manpick on September 30, 2012, 05:22:34 PM

Meh, I think it has us a few spots low.

You better watch your back 8mp. The ORCHID is the best and we will run you out of town if you think otherwise.

Dr Rick Daris · « **Reply #11 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:31:38 PM »

looks like it took this dipshit a week or two to get his stats straight but better late than never i guess.

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #12 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:33:16 PM »

Quote from: mancattanite on September 30, 2012, 05:29:12 PM

Sorry if luked... but where can we see more details? As in what do the numbers mean?

If you have to ask you'll never know.

CHONGS · « **Reply #13 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:35:37 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on September 26, 2012, 07:22:31 PM

FYI who those who don't know:

Effective Off is effective offense, the average number of points that team scores per play (adjusted per game for opponents effective defense).

Effective Def is effective defense, the average number of points that team allows per play (adjusted per game for opponents effective offense).

The power % is the difference between them minus a penalty for # of losses.

It's simple and objective.

CHONGS · « **Reply #14 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:41:37 PM »

If you want to know who has the best defense, the number to look at is not yard per game or yards per play or points given up, but points per play given up (adjusted to strength of schedule) which is effective defense.

Alabama is #1 in that category and Florida St is #1 in effective offense.

KSU is #6 in effective offense and #23 in defense at this point in time.

mancattanite · « **Reply #15 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:45:45 PM »

Thanks Chingon.

As a math-y person I'm pretty interested in this kind of stuff. Seems simple enough. Would be interested in how you factor in the adjustments, but I won't ask you to just give away your entire formula for rankings. Good job.

DQ12 · « **Reply #16 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:48:27 PM »

Looks like the Orchid is really hitting its stride!

_33 · « **Reply #17 on:** September 30, 2012, 05:54:43 PM »

Feels good to be undefeated vs ORCHID Top 25 teams.

MixBerryCrunch · « **Reply #18 on:** September 30, 2012, 06:15:02 PM »

Is it possible to account for SOS in these rankings? Maybe multiply power percentage by SOS or something. Or do you already account for it in your adjustments?

mocat · « **Reply #19 on:** September 30, 2012, 06:28:43 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on September 30, 2012, 05:41:37 PM

KSU is #6 in effective offense

This is crazy considering it seems like we run soooo many plays for 3.3 yards per play, so one would think it takes us more plays to score points. But the stats don't lie. Great work Chingon.

CHONGS · « **Reply #20 on:** September 30, 2012, 06:36:00 PM »

Quote from: MixBerryCrunch on September 30, 2012, 06:15:02 PM

Is it possible to account for SOS in these rankings? Maybe multiply power percentage by SOS or something. Or do you already account for it in your adjustments?

already accounted for. The stats from every game this season so far are adjusted each week. So even though KSU was idle our numbers changed.

MixBerryCrunch · « **Reply #21 on:** September 30, 2012, 06:40:09 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on September 30, 2012, 06:36:00 PM

Quote from: MixBerryCrunch on September 30, 2012, 06:15:02 PM
Is it possible to account for SOS in these rankings? Maybe multiply power percentage by SOS or something. Or do you already account for it in your adjustments?
already accounted for. The stats from every game this season so far are adjusted each week. So even though KSU was idle our numbers changed.

mocat · « **Reply #22 on:** September 30, 2012, 06:41:45 PM »

how does D/ST scoring affect the numbers, if at all?

CHONGS · « **Reply #23 on:** September 30, 2012, 06:47:02 PM »

Quote from: mocat on September 30, 2012, 06:41:45 PM

how does D/ST scoring affect the numbers, if at all?

effective offense is number of points scored per play (regardless of how)

mocat · « **Reply #24 on:** September 30, 2012, 06:48:46 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on September 30, 2012, 06:47:02 PM

Quote from: mocat on September 30, 2012, 06:41:45 PM
how does D/ST scoring affect the numbers, if at all?
effective offense is number of points scored per play (regardless of how)

that's why KSU is #6!