Kansas State might be able to repeat ‘miracle’ season, but numbers certainly not on its side
By Beyond the Bets On July 30, 2012 ....
You don’t see too many negative words written about Kansas State on this site, and that’s because we’re partial to Hall of Fame coach LHC Bill Snyder and the incredible program he’s built (and rebuilt).
But objectively, there are plenty of things working against K-State entering 2012, things that most pundits miss in their hurried attempt to declare regression for reasons they’re unable to articulate or explain.
As one pundit recently put it: “K-State won’t win 10 games again. I mean, it’s Kansas State!”
So, for those predicting doom & gloom for the Wildcats, what are a few of the real reasons we might expect them to take a step back in 2012—and possibly a significant one?
Let’s take a closer look:
1. It’s a one-man show
Collin Klein is a Heisman Trophy candidate and rightfully so. His 27 rushing touchdowns tied a Big 12 record and he finished with more than 3,000 total yards despite being banged up throughout much of the season. Will his body hold up for another year if forced to carry a similar workload?
If it can’t—and if Klein misses time due to injury—what will the Wildcats become without him? Klein had 31 of the team’s 37 touchdowns in Big 12 play last season, meaning he had a part in 83.8 percent of the team’s scoring plays. Only Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas (82.1%) came close to that percentage.
It can be argued that Klein is the most irreplaceable player in the country. Consequently, it can be argued that K-State’s season would go up in flames if he missed significant action.
2. The schedule is tougher
K-State played Texas A&M and Missouri, the two teams that left the Big 12 in the offseason, at home in 2011. Now, the Wildcats will play the two newcomers—West Virginia and TCU—on the road.
The two wins from last year’s schedule (by a combined 10 points) could becomes losses in 2012, and the Wildcats are projected underdogs of 7 points against both the Mountaineers and Horned Frogs.
The road slate as a whole also figures to be much more difficult. K-State played only two bowl teams (Oklahoma State and Texas) away from home in 2011, and this year they’ll face five bowl teams on the road: West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor and Iowa State.
Home games against Oklahoma State and Texas are coin flips. In fact, K-State is currently listed as a 5.5-point underdog against the Longhorns at the LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas. Overall, the Wildcats are a projected favorite in just seven of 12 games.
3. Close games go the other way
Maybe you’ve heard, but K-State was the best team in the country in close games last year. The Wildcats posted an incredible 6-1 record in Big 12 games decided by one score or less.
According to Statistically Speaking, there were 19 teams from 2005 to 2010 that performed at a similarly high level in close games. Fifteen of those teams declined by at least one game the following year in conference play, and only one BCS team—the 2009 Cincinnati Bearcats—managed to improve their overall record.
Teams that “fell off” did so by an average of about 1.65 wins.
