I think everyone would agree that outside of a major Foster injury we expected this season to be our worst season for the next 4 years. We have Hurt and Edwards for the next two, and then this class of freshman will be seniors after that. So if we can compete for a Big 12 title and win a tournament game with this team, it seems pretty obvious that oscar's ceiling is way higher than we first thought.
i think you mean his floor, at least medium-term, is higher than thought. he's been to the final four before, so i'm not sure that people were constraining him with a low ceiling (if they were, i don't know why).
his past record is one that includes a mixture of impressive success and inexplicable failure relative to the profile of the program, not one of consistent mediocrity.