Unemployment

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Gallup reports that unemployment is up sharply to 9.1%, the third straight monthly increase.

This is just based on polling, which is obviously different than how official unemployment is measured, but it is curious that Gallup's numbers, and more importantly, the trend, is so different from the official numbers. Gallup says unemployment has been going up over the last three months, while the official unemployment rate has steadily dropped.

Perhaps this is explained by the number of people dropping out of the job market (and thus, not counting towards the official numbers), or is there something else?

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

If you have been out of work for more than 99 months, you are officially employed according to the US of A.

[Rage Against the McKee]

If you have been out of work for more than 99 months, you are officially employed according to the US of A.

If you have been out of work that long, you obviously have no desire to get a job, so you should not be counted toward any statistic that is used to show how hard it is to find employment in America.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

If you have been out of work for more than 99 months, you are officially employed according to the US of A.

If you have been out of work that long, you obviously have no desire to get a job, so you should not be counted toward any statistic that is used to show how hard it is to find employment in America.

Oooops, 99 weeks.  I agree 99 months is a long time. 

[michigancat]

nobama is rigging the official numbers obviously. Curious.

[Bookcat]

nobama is rigging the official numbers obviously. Curious.

of course.

from here on out...any bit of information that indicates the GDP is expanding our employment is improving is a ploy by the media to get Obama reelected.

All of the bad news (coming out of Fox 24/7) is reality.

[puniraptor]

nobama is rigging the official numbers obviously. Curious.

of course.

from here on out...any bit of information that indicates the GDP is expanding our employment is improving is a ploy by the media to get Obama reelected.

All of the bad news (coming out of Fox 24/7) is reality.

I like to imagine that you are actually Arthur.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

I'm not alleging a conspiracy to manipulate the unemployment numbers - it's just an interesting difference.

The official unemployment rate was updated today: 8.3%, unchanged from last month. This, despite the 3-month up-tic in reported unemployment according to Gallup's polling.

Maybe part of the reason is that more people seem to be taking part-time jobs, and no longer count as "unemployed."



I haven't yet found any measurement of the number of people dropping out of the workforce, which could also be a contributing factor.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

I'm not alleging a conspiracy to manipulate the unemployment numbers - it's just an interesting difference.

The official unemployment rate was updated today: 8.3%, unchanged from last month. This, despite the 3-month up-tic in reported unemployment according to Gallup's polling.

Maybe part of the reason is that more people seem to be taking part-time jobs, and no longer count as "unemployed."



I haven't yet found any measurement of the number of people dropping out of the workforce, which could also be a contributing factor.

I think the reason they are taking the part time jobs is simply because their 99 weeks of unemployment benefits is over. These people are counted as "employed" whether they have a job or not in the U3 numbers.

[sonofdaxjones]

What are the underemployment numbers?

Book is a full subscriber to the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

Like many hardcore liberals, any and all discussion that doesn't speak in absolute glowing terms about the Barry W. Obama administration MUST have originated on Fox, or on "right wing" radio.   

[Rage Against the McKee]

What are the underemployment numbers?

Book is a full subscriber to the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

Like many hardcore liberals, any and all discussion that doesn't speak in absolute glowing terms about the Barry W. Obama administration MUST have originated on Fox, or on "right wing" radio.

How is underemployment calculated?

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

How is underemployment calculated?

I believe "underemployment" is also known as the "U6" unemployment rate. In addition to the traditional "U3" unemployed, it includes "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Part-time work could be as little as 1 hour per week. The U6 is currently 14.9%.

And here some information on those who have dropped out of the labor force. When Barack Obama took office, the size of the U.S. labor force as a percentage of population was 65.7%. Today, it has shrunk to 63.9%. This represents both people dropping out of the workforce because they have given up looking for work, and also includes a natural attrition due to baby boomer retirement.

According to this guy, if you adjust for the shrinking of the workforce (also taking into account natural baby boomer retirement), the unemployment rate would be 10.4%. So, this would indicate that the unemployment rate is being significantly reduced by people giving up looking for work. That seems ironic.

[kstatefreak42]

“If you want to really know why the American people feel badly about the economy, it’s that the unemployment rate is escalating. It’s very high,” he said. “But if you take ... the number of people employed, 132 million people, it’s the same number that was employed in the year 2000. There have been no new jobs produced.”

[star seed 7]

“If you want to really know why the American people feel badly about the economy, it’s that the unemployment rate is escalating. It’s very high,” he said. “But if you take ... the number of people employed, 132 million people, it’s the same number that was employed in the year 2000. There have been no new jobs produced.”

well, at least that boring video suggested this awesome one

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

We have 3 million fewer people participating in the labor force, that's how unemployment has shrunk to the completely unacceptable level of 8.3%.  U-6 and U-9 remain at depression levels.

The so-called recovery is already losing whatever little steam it had.  Enjoy the summer doldrums obamabots, will be a good time to gather up your talking points and vitriol against President Romney.

[Stupid Fitz]

We have 3 million fewer people participating in the labor force, that's how unemployment has shrunk to the completely unacceptable level of 8.3%.  U-6 and U-9 remain at depression levels.

The so-called recovery is already losing whatever little steam it had.  Enjoy the summer doldrums obamabots, will be a good time to gather up your talking points and vitriol against President Romney.

This is going to be interesting.  I honestly have no idea which way it is going to go but I am interested in seeing how it plays out.  Gas prices seem to be going nowhere but up.  However, if the economy tanks again, fuel prices go down and most people are happy.  The market is the other interesting thing.  I think it is funny that they look at the market to say whether or not the economy is good when the avg person could give a crap if the stock market is up or down as long as gas is affordable and they have a job.  What happens if gas prices are through the roof, unemployment is steadily craptistic, and they "sell in May and go away"?  Going to be pretty tough for Obammer to explain that one. 

[kstatefreak42]

I would say its closer to 20%