Author Topic: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?  (Read 12085 times)

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Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #25 on: February 02, 2012, 12:26:25 PM »
I feel better now. I just wanted to see what it felt like to post like OK_Cat. I know we don't suck at football and i'm the guy who tries to make reason for why we recruit 2*'s and 3*'s. :TuckingShirtBackIn:
« Last Edit: February 02, 2012, 12:37:12 PM by fanningksu »

Offline Ira Hayes

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #26 on: February 02, 2012, 12:30:26 PM »
You may have a point, but I don't think age is very significant.  In Snyder's early years when everyone we played was geared up to try to stop the NU & OU rushing attacks we had Paul Watson, Carl Straw, and Chad May chucking it all over the field.  Now that everyone has switched to trying to defend the spread/pass happy style of OSU, OU, MU, TT we have a power running game.  

Snyder is a contrarian ala Bill Belichik.  If everybody else is recruiting based on NFL combine style measurables, Snyder is going to do something different.  It sounded yesterday like he is actually looking at real football stats.  Think about guys like Hubert.  Or look at Donnie Starks who had 189 solo tackles this fall but doesn't have any of the measurables.  That's a ridiculous number of tackles.  As Snyder himself said yesterday about Marquez Clark: "“Certainly, the numbers tell you something.  You can’t get that kind of yardage without having some skill."  

I'm sure Snyder is looking beyond the numbers, but the numbers are a good starting point - especially when nobody else is looking at them.


First, I think I clearly stated in the OP that "age" was NOT significant but given Snyder's detail it certainly has to be considered as being part of his evaluation.  Again, 40% of his high school signees this year were born after April 1st...that is nowhere close to the population of high school seniors and/or D-1 prospects.

Second, the reason Snyder threw it around the yard initially is because he didn't have the horses to run the ball with Nebraska, Colorado, and OU.  The short passing game he used could be equated to the 3 pt shot or "keep away" offenses employed by mid-majors in the NCAA tourney.  It isn't that he didn't want to run then...he just couldn't run it well enough.  Once he started playing those teams and saw their usage of the QB in terms of running the ball and controlling games he wanted that and has never steered away from it.  He's not doing it now to be a contrarian...he does it because he feels it is the key to winning at KSU.  He wants balance offensively...he doesn't always get it, especially with underclassmen starting at QB, but he wants it.  I have researched it and with QBs that have started with him as both juniors and seniors Snyder's QBs will attempt 8 more passes per game as seniors than they did as juniors...so he does strive to throw it more than it appears.



Sure, he wants to be balanced.  But when everybody else is unbalanced, he will take what he can get and he will appear to be unbalanced in the opposite direction.  See Klein's game against Texas last year.

Same theory in recruiting.  If everybody is chasing a small group of kids, he's going to look elsewhere.  He even admitted this year that it's not worth his time to chase those kids.  Of course nobody agrees with him, but it looks like it's working.  Gary Pinkel may have a helicopter, but we have the scoreboard.

Offline The Manhatter

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #27 on: February 02, 2012, 12:33:10 PM »
I feel better now. I just wanted to see what it felt like to post like OK_Cat. I know we don't suck at football and i'm the guy who tries to make reason for why we recrruit 2*'s and 3*'s. :TuckingShirtBackIn:

I don't even reason 2 and 3 star commits.  I watch the video I can find and make my own determinations.  I was begging for us to offer Travis Britz when nobody was offering him and wasn't going to offer.  I don't see Britz in the way the scouting services do...well, I do see him the way ESPN scout (BITB) rated him.  If he plays defense he's not going to give you a pass rush and he's not going to dictate plays in the opponents' backfield but he also won't budge in the running game or make mistakes and he'll play with a motor every snap.  He doesn't need to be a difference maker.  Now if he's an OLineman then he's a tremendous prospect.  He has value to a program and I could give a sh1t if he's a 2 star prospect.

and getting back to the point of the example of Nelson.  I'm not saying everybody has to be or will be like Nelson.  You can make great gains and be of value to your program and be nothing like Jordy Nelson (who has all pro ability)..those types are rare but serves as an illustration to this very topic.
Academics is a stupid word.

Academic schools are synonymous for being rich, powerful and exclusive, three things Kansas State is not.

So when people throw the word "academics" around, that's really what they are referencing.

Offline wabash909

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2012, 12:40:09 PM »
Sometimes I wish Snyder would just recruit really good players.

It is fun to read some of these far reaching theories that people will come up with to rationalize why we don't, though.  It is entertaining.  Not like being entertained because our coach flew a helicopter to a recruiting visit.  But fun and entertaining, in our own little way.


Hey man, we'd all love to see KSU sign a bunch of 4 and 5 star kids.  That isn't going to happen under Snyder and never has but I'm quite certain the performance or end result on the field is FAR MORE IMPORTANT to you or I than how our team rankings look on February 1st.  We went 10-2 for a reason this past year and not all of it is "scheme doctor" crap.  He does have some players.  

I look at Vernon Vaughn's video, for example.  The kid makes a TON of great catches demonstrating body control, hands, and advanced skills in the passing game you can't teach.  But he was injured this year and that video comes from the '10 season after he had just turned 16.  That is very young.  He doesn't look THAT fast or sudden and I'm quite certain Snyder was aware of that so why did he offer the kid so early?  Probably because he knows the kid could advance quite a bit physically in the next few years.  I know that ESPN scout is far more concerned about skill in the way they rate kids...Vaughn got high marks with them based on his skills that can't be taught.

If you want to complain and bitch about recruiting just for the sake of doing so then that's fine.  The man will produce results that can be measured when it counts and you won't be bitching in Sept-Nov but then you can turn to Feb and forget what happened just a few months ago.  I'm sure Snyder looks for every edge he can get and in so doing you have to consider what he may or may not be contemplating when he does offer a kid.

LOL...No.  Wrong board Hatter.


LOL at the people that think the DOD was built on the backs of classes like the one we just signed.

The DOD was built on solid classes with impact players like Jeff Kelly.  And guys like Brent Venables recruiting guys like Jeff Kelly.

The notion that we don't or can't recruit 4 or 5 star talent is convenient fallacy that isn't true.




« Last Edit: February 02, 2012, 12:42:23 PM by wabash909 »
Texas Christian University coach Gary Patterson has been hired as Kansas State's 34th football coach, multiple sources have confirmed to GoPowercat.com.  Patterson replaces Ron Prince, who was fired Wednesday. - Tim Fitzgerald   Nov, 7, 2008

Offline ben_dover919

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2012, 12:50:22 PM »
Hatter's thought made me think of that. Unlike hockey, the real transformation for MOST football players occurs once they're in a college weightroom and development, so there is more potential for improving an undervalued player.

That sounds really interesting. Is the whole book sports related or just outliers in general?

very general

michigan-did you see when bissenger was just crushing gladwell on twitter a month ago...talking about how much crap outliers was. i didnt understand because i thought outliers was very well argued premise, but i love gladwell. is burton willing to put in his 10,000 hours..that is the real question.  :crossfingers:

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #30 on: February 02, 2012, 12:53:04 PM »
Wabash sometimes I think we're so tuckish that we forget how emaw we are. I mean imagine for a second, you're really talented (Hard to imagine) at football. You have no ties to any school because you grew up poor. You live in texas, and you are effing elite (6'4", 4.4-40, 220, WR). Why and the eff would I leave Texas to go to the MIDDLE OF KANSAS? Seriously think about that. We grew to love Manhattan, why do I want to leave Texas for EFFING KANSAS? I think thats why i get excited whenever we sign anyone. Cause I mean thats kinda awesome.

Offline The Manhatter

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #31 on: February 02, 2012, 01:01:06 PM »
Sometimes I wish Snyder would just recruit really good players.

It is fun to read some of these far reaching theories that people will come up with to rationalize why we don't, though.  It is entertaining.  Not like being entertained because our coach flew a helicopter to a recruiting visit.  But fun and entertaining, in our own little way.


Hey man, we'd all love to see KSU sign a bunch of 4 and 5 star kids.  That isn't going to happen under Snyder and never has but I'm quite certain the performance or end result on the field is FAR MORE IMPORTANT to you or I than how our team rankings look on February 1st.  We went 10-2 for a reason this past year and not all of it is "scheme doctor" crap.  He does have some players.  

I look at Vernon Vaughn's video, for example.  The kid makes a TON of great catches demonstrating body control, hands, and advanced skills in the passing game you can't teach.  But he was injured this year and that video comes from the '10 season after he had just turned 16.  That is very young.  He doesn't look THAT fast or sudden and I'm quite certain Snyder was aware of that so why did he offer the kid so early?  Probably because he knows the kid could advance quite a bit physically in the next few years.  I know that ESPN scout is far more concerned about skill in the way they rate kids...Vaughn got high marks with them based on his skills that can't be taught.

If you want to complain and bitch about recruiting just for the sake of doing so then that's fine.  The man will produce results that can be measured when it counts and you won't be bitching in Sept-Nov but then you can turn to Feb and forget what happened just a few months ago.  I'm sure Snyder looks for every edge he can get and in so doing you have to consider what he may or may not be contemplating when he does offer a kid.

LOL...No.  Wrong board Hatter.


LOL at the people that think the DOD was built on the backs of classes like the one we just signed.

The DOD was built on solid classes with impact players like Jeff Kelly.  And guys like Brent Venables recruiting guys like Jeff Kelly.

The notion that we don't or can't recruit 4 or 5 star talent is convenient fallacy that isn't true.


dear god.  So everybody we signed back in the day was a Jeff Kelly?  Nope.  Things were a lot different then in soooooo many ways.  For one, the access to information on recruits in 1997 was nothing like it is today.  Not everybody would have known in '97 about a Jeff Kelly like they do today.  Plus, the rankings were more inaccurate then because of that far less information.  I think about some of the kids who we signed that were rated 4 and 5 star out of the jucos but had no video on rivals because there was very few, if any, until early 2000s.  Many of those wouldn't be nearly as regarded today as they were then.

Academics is a stupid word.

Academic schools are synonymous for being rich, powerful and exclusive, three things Kansas State is not.

So when people throw the word "academics" around, that's really what they are referencing.

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #32 on: February 02, 2012, 01:01:39 PM »
The notion of moneyball was simply this:  finding value when you are constrained more than your competitors.  Bill has, to my knowledge, always held the belief in waiting to offer kids based upon their senior film (though he as waivered some from that tactic).  If that is a base philosophy, then it will inherently lead to finding kids that were “late bloomers” (whether because of injury, age, or physical maturation), because everyone else in the free world is offering based upon junior film (thus you’d have to assume that they have a better shot at landing that HS kid).  Also, Bill has always “saved” scholarships therefore this provides him with the ability (maybe moreso than others) to offer a kid who blew up during his senior year because he has the room .

Bill’s problem is that he hasn’t been able to get Arthur Brown out of HS (generally speaking).  Or Jeff Kelly out of JUCO (anymore).  These are high level athletes/recruits who provide the immediate and/or eventual elite talent which can be surrounded by the Moneyball/DITR players.  

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #33 on: February 02, 2012, 01:01:47 PM »
Wabash sometimes I think we're so tuckish that we forget how emaw we are. I mean imagine for a second, you're really talented (Hard to imagine) at football. You have no ties to any school because you grew up poor. You live in texas, and you are effing elite (6'4", 4.4-40, 220, WR). Why and the eff would I leave Texas to go to the MIDDLE OF KANSAS? Seriously think about that. We grew to love Manhattan, why do I want to leave Texas for EFFING KANSAS? I think thats why i get excited whenever we sign anyone. Cause I mean thats kinda awesome.

wait am I poor because I'm black or because I grew up in Texas?

When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #34 on: February 02, 2012, 01:03:01 PM »
Wabash sometimes I think we're so tuckish that we forget how emaw we are. I mean imagine for a second, you're really talented (Hard to imagine) at football. You have no ties to any school because you grew up poor. You live in texas, and you are effing elite (6'4", 4.4-40, 220, WR). Why and the eff would I leave Texas to go to the MIDDLE OF KANSAS? Seriously think about that. We grew to love Manhattan, why do I want to leave Texas for EFFING KANSAS? I think thats why i get excited whenever we sign anyone. Cause I mean thats kinda awesome.

wait am I poor because I'm black or because I grew up in Texas?


Both  :opcat:

Offline Cire

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #35 on: February 02, 2012, 01:07:16 PM »
10-2 is the outlier.

Offline highway61

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #36 on: February 02, 2012, 01:08:40 PM »
If you enjoyed Outliers, you might give Scorecasting a try.  It is similar in some ways, but is all about sports.  I think it might be the book the GPC poster who said Spradling wasn't slumping cited.

Offline MadCat

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #37 on: February 02, 2012, 01:14:03 PM »
I'm imagining Ron Prince accidentally leaving a copy of Outliers in his desk.  One day Bill briskly opens the drawer for another Werther's Original and the book slides forward.  History is made.

Offline wabash909

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #38 on: February 02, 2012, 01:22:57 PM »


dear god.  So everybody we signed back in the day was a Jeff Kelly?  Nope.  Things were a lot different then in soooooo many ways.  For one, the access to information on recruits in 1997 was nothing like it is today.  Not everybody would have known in '97 about a Jeff Kelly like they do today.  Plus, the rankings were more inaccurate then because of that far less information.  I think about some of the kids who we signed that were rated 4 and 5 star out of the jucos but had no video on rivals because there was very few, if any, until early 2000s.  Many of those wouldn't be nearly as regarded today as they were then.




I didn't say everyone in those classes was like Jeff Kelly.

I was simply discounting your notion that Snyder or staff can't recruit impact 4 or 5 star players and needs to rely upon undervalued kids without interest from other top schools to sustain his program.

That's a fallacy.

We can recruit 4 or 5 star talent, we did when we actually had recruiters capable of doing so on the staff, and that was a major part of the success during the point in time when we were competing at a championship level.

Michael Bishop was a 4 or 5 star talent.  Let's start there.  Jeff Kelly, Quincy Morgan, Darnell McDonald, Frank Murphy, hell Josh Scobey, James McGill, Bobby Walker.  All JUCO All American 4 or 5 star talent.

Josh Buhl and the Mesquite trio.  Ell Roberson.  All three and four star Parade All American talent from the prep route.  Guys like Andrew Shull and Ben Leber were Parade All Americans out of high school.  Jarrod Cooper, Rashad Washington and Monty Beisel were Parade All Americans.    

This notion that the DOD was built on classes with 8 grayshirts is laughable.  They weren't.  


 

« Last Edit: February 02, 2012, 01:35:19 PM by wabash909 »
Texas Christian University coach Gary Patterson has been hired as Kansas State's 34th football coach, multiple sources have confirmed to GoPowercat.com.  Patterson replaces Ron Prince, who was fired Wednesday. - Tim Fitzgerald   Nov, 7, 2008

Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #39 on: February 02, 2012, 01:34:55 PM »
Outliers is a great book.  I'd recommend it to anyone, and michigan was right that this example is very comparable to the one in the book.

I also think Hatter is correct that this isn't a coincidence.

Finally, you only need to have 22 really awesome players at a time.  That's 25% of your roster.  If you can sign 6-8 potential studs in every class, that's enough to fill a two deep almost 1.5 times over and fill the rest of your team with quality depth to push the starters and backups in practice every day.  And, ultimately, what you want if you're not a perennial power, like Bama, LSU, OU, etc., is a roster full of D1 athletes, and the guys in this class, for the most part, look like D1 athletes.

You have to remember that for a lot of these guys, they won't see the field for anything but special teams (if that) for almost three years.  That's three years of S&C, practice, development, maturation, etc.  That's an entire lifetime for an athlete.  Imagine where you were at 18, physically, compared to where you were at 21 or 22?  Now imagine if you had spent three, four, or five years doing intense, year-round physical training while eating at a training table?

And, while we knock Snyder for a lot of things, one thing he excels at is creating a structured environment that facilitates improving personal performance.  You can't underscore how much his attention to detail and structured approach enhance that development as well.

/untucksshirtnow

Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #40 on: February 02, 2012, 01:44:21 PM »


dear god.  So everybody we signed back in the day was a Jeff Kelly?  Nope.  Things were a lot different then in soooooo many ways.  For one, the access to information on recruits in 1997 was nothing like it is today.  Not everybody would have known in '97 about a Jeff Kelly like they do today.  Plus, the rankings were more inaccurate then because of that far less information.  I think about some of the kids who we signed that were rated 4 and 5 star out of the jucos but had no video on rivals because there was very few, if any, until early 2000s.  Many of those wouldn't be nearly as regarded today as they were then.




I didn't say everyone in those classes was like Jeff Kelly.

I was simply discounting your notion that Snyder or staff can't recruit impact 4 or 5 star players and needs to rely upon undervalued kids without interest from other top schools to sustain his program.

That's a fallacy.

We can recruit 4 or 5 star talent, we did when we actually had recruiters capable of doing so on the staff, and that was a major part of the success during the point in time when we were competing at a championship level.

Michael Bishop was a 4 or 5 star talent.  Let's start there.  Jeff Kelly, Quincy Morgan, Darnell McDonald, Frank Murphy, hell Josh Scobey, James McGill, Bobby Walker.  All JUCO All American 4 or 5 star talent.

Josh Buhl and the Mesquite trio.  Ell Roberson.  All three and four star Parade All American talent from the prep route.  Guys like Andrew Shull and Ben Leber were Parade All Americans out of high school.  Jarrod Cooper, Rashad Washington and Monty Beisel were Parade All Americans.    

This notion that the DOD was built on classes with 8 grayshirts is laughable.  They weren't.  


I think you're both right.

Hatter is correct that Snyder's approach, overall, works.  The track record is there.

909 is right in the sense that we probably aren't maximizing the talent we 'could' pull should Snyder hire better recruiters.

The grayshirt strategy, preferred walk-on strategy, transfer strategy, etc. are all great things Snyder does.  When you don't have the resources everyone else has, you need to go out there and find different ways to pull in talent.  No matter how good you are at recruiting, you should never limit yourself to one or two avenues to pull players.  You need to be open and diligent in finding talent wherever you can.

However, I think there is a great amount of truth to the fact that we probably could recruit better if we spent some additional money on staff, or overcame whatever limitation we seem to self-impose in terms of pulling in obvious candidates that could help us make an impact in finding better players (i.e. Ekeler).

The frustration on both sides of the argument is justified.  We need to keep doing more of what we're doing, but we should be going out and getting better talent, staff wise, to increase the level of talent we're not finding through unconventional means.  There's a balance there.

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #41 on: February 02, 2012, 01:53:53 PM »
Hatter's thought made me think of that. Unlike hockey, the real transformation for MOST football players occurs once they're in a college weightroom and development, so there is more potential for improving an undervalued player.

That sounds really interesting. Is the whole book sports related or just outliers in general?

very general

michigan-did you see when bissenger was just crushing gladwell on twitter a month ago...talking about how much crap outliers was. i didnt understand because i thought outliers was very well argued premise, but i love gladwell. is burton willing to put in his 10,000 hours..that is the real question.  :crossfingers:

I didn't because bissinger is a moron and I don't follow him. Outliers isn't perfect by any stretch, but Bissinger is a Moron.

Offline Ira Hayes

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #42 on: February 02, 2012, 02:01:54 PM »
Don't see how you can argue that Jeff Kelly was a better recruit than Will Davis is now.  And Davis has a better HS resume than Simoneau. Way better.

Leber was rated higher because he was taller.  Was he a better player at KSU than Simoneau or Kelly?  Not really.

Offline The Manhatter

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #43 on: February 02, 2012, 02:55:28 PM »
Michael Bishop was a 4 or 5 star talent.  Let's start there.  Jeff Kelly, Quincy Morgan, Darnell McDonald, Frank Murphy, hell Josh Scobey, James McGill, Bobby Walker.  All JUCO All American 4 or 5 star talent.

just to point out a few things

1) Bishop chose KSU because he couldn't get into Texas or aTm.  Both recruited him but they had the Texas exit exam he had to pass to gain entrance into those schools. 

2) We out muscled lowly Iowa State for Quincy Morgan.  FACT.

3) Josh Scobey was a placement from having signed him out of high school when he wasn't highly recruited.

4) James McGill would have gone to Illinois but he couldn't get in there.  It would be no different than if Cordarelle Patterson fell into our lap in August because he doesn't have the math course to get into Tennessee.

Sure, we won a few more battles then....but I emphasize a "few" more.  One of the reasons was because schools didn't recruit the jucos as actively as they do today.  Go figure?

Here is another reason....KSU could sign partial qualifiers up to about '97...that changed a few things as well.  You wonder why Boise State has so much talent?  They get a number of players who would not be permitted to sign with programs in BCS conferences.
Academics is a stupid word.

Academic schools are synonymous for being rich, powerful and exclusive, three things Kansas State is not.

So when people throw the word "academics" around, that's really what they are referencing.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #44 on: February 02, 2012, 03:11:35 PM »
No use discussing this anymore, Snyder is not going to change, and frankly he seems pretty grumpy if anyone suggest otherwise.

It's probably not going to win any conference championships, but bowl appearences will likely occur every year . . . and that's good enough.


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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #45 on: February 02, 2012, 03:45:39 PM »
 :love: The ManHatter.

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #46 on: February 02, 2012, 04:10:56 PM »
i enjoyed this thread.
Sometimes I think of the Book of Job and how God likes to really eff with people.
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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #47 on: February 02, 2012, 07:16:51 PM »
Hot time in Kat town tonight.

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #48 on: February 02, 2012, 07:51:40 PM »
sounds all a bit dubious to me

would have to see (and have access) to the data for analysis

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Re: Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?
« Reply #49 on: February 02, 2012, 08:08:54 PM »
I'm so sick of "the examples" like Jordy Nelson and Aqib Talib, those are the rough ridin' exceptions. We suck at football and we definitely suck at recruiting. Eff moneyball analogies, they're Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). We're not working with a salary cup. :DroppedMic: :UntuckingMyFuckingShirt:  :shakesfist:

we suck at "football recruiting", not at "football".  It's your ignorance of this very detail that illustrates your ignorance for considering the discussion in this post.

I now suggest you open the nearest window and yell at the top of your lungs.  Come back when you feel better.



I rough ridin' love the Manhatter.  He's one the things that keeps my EMAW burning.

We are blessed to have him, and you rough ridin' retards need to give some respect.