Big 12 Effeciency and Four Factors 3-5-12 (regular season adv stats)

[kso_FAN]

So in summation:  We need to score more.(?)

If I had to list our biggest issues offensively I'd go with this:
1) Shooting the ball. Especially our weird inability to hit 3s at home. However, our 2PT% was pretty average in Big 12 play as well.
2) TOs, but that was more early in the year. Frank's teams are never going to keep our TO% under 20%, but it has to be in the low 20s at least. We proved we can win that way, mainly because we force TOs nearly 1 of every 4 possessions.
3) FT rate. I can live with our opponents getting to the line a little more than we do, but we need to keep ours above 40%.

[kso_FAN]

Probably a dumb question, but is PPP always that closely tied to the final standings in a round robin league? I guess it seems kind of inevitable. 

Not a dumb question at all, actually this is a very good point.

[Cire]

So in summation:  We need to score more.(?)

If I had to list our biggest issues offensively I'd go with this:
1) Shooting the ball. Especially our weird inability to hit 3s at home. However, our 2PT% was pretty average in Big 12 play as well.
2) TOs, but that was more early in the year. Frank's teams are never going to keep our TO% under 20%, but it has to be in the low 20s at least. We proved we can win that way, mainly because we force TOs nearly 1 of every 4 possessions.
3) FT rate. I can live with our opponents getting to the line a little more than we do, but we need to keep ours above 40%.

more efficiently.  Also, we have got to limit the ticky tac 35 feet away fouls.

[MakeItRain]

I guess it kind of makes sense that it would be close since everyone is playing each other, but the narrow range of pace numbers is crazy.

It has been a crazy year in the Big 12 if you look at historical PPG numbers. You forced me to make another chart. I hope we aren't trying to become the Big 10. 

K-State highlighted in purple.

I'd be willing to bet the PPG numbers each year can be directly attributed to the number of quality ball handlers in the league.  I would say this is a down year in the league as it relates to guards and a good year for bigs equals more half court sets.  The guard pool in the league is relatively young so I'd be willing to bet that this year is a low water mark for PPG.  Will also be interesting to see these numbers with the subtraction of Mizzou and A&M.  We know A&M has a poor PPG by any standard, what's interesting and surprising to me is that WVU has the same PPG as Mizzou, and less surprising because of their current conference TCU has a PPG of 70.

[kso_FAN]

I should have clarified, but the chart is pace (possessions per game) sorry for the confusion by using "PPG". I guess its been so long since I've actually looked at "points per game" that I forgot it could be confused.

[MakeItRain]

I should have clarified, but the chart is pace (possessions per game) sorry for the confusion by using "PPG". I guess its been so long since I've actually looked at "points per game" that I forgot it could be confused.

I think we all, those reading this thread anyway, knew you meant possessions per game.

[michigancat]

I guess it kind of makes sense that it would be close since everyone is playing each other, but the narrow range of pace numbers is crazy.

It has been a crazy year in the Big 12 if you look at historical PPG numbers. You forced me to make another chart. I hope we aren't trying to become the Big 10. 

K-State highlighted in purple.

I'd be willing to bet the PPG numbers each year can be directly attributed to the number of quality ball handlers in the league.  I would say this is a down year in the league as it relates to guards and a good year for bigs equals more half court sets.

A big problem with you theory is that MU was third lowest.

[Powercat Posse]

FAN, I think you are very accurate with our 3 biggest issues offensively

1.  We shot the ball well in the home loss to Baylor, but in the other 3 home losses, we were 10-52 (19.2%) from 3pt land.  A big part why we only ave 58 pts/gm in those 3 home losses ( And lost those 3 games by 13 pts total)

2.  We are 8-3 in our last 11 conf games in which we had 15 TOs or less.  No surprise the games when we had 20,20,19 TOs.... we lost all 3 of those

3.  We are 7-1 when our FTR is above 40%

[MakeItRain]

I guess it kind of makes sense that it would be close since everyone is playing each other, but the narrow range of pace numbers is crazy.

It has been a crazy year in the Big 12 if you look at historical PPG numbers. You forced me to make another chart. I hope we aren't trying to become the Big 10. 

K-State highlighted in purple.

I'd be willing to bet the PPG numbers each year can be directly attributed to the number of quality ball handlers in the league.  I would say this is a down year in the league as it relates to guards and a good year for bigs equals more half court sets.

A big problem with you theory is that MU was third lowest.

You don't think that as a general rule teams with skilled guards play at a higher pace than the alternative?  Going into this season I don't think anyone would have believed that Mizzou's possessions per game would be so low.  I don't know how anyone wouldn't see Mizzou's PP40 as a statistical anomaly.  Of course you know that when analyzing any stat its okay to throw out certain outliers and anomalies.

[michigancat]

I guess it kind of makes sense that it would be close since everyone is playing each other, but the narrow range of pace numbers is crazy.

It has been a crazy year in the Big 12 if you look at historical PPG numbers. You forced me to make another chart. I hope we aren't trying to become the Big 10. 

K-State highlighted in purple.

I'd be willing to bet the PPG numbers each year can be directly attributed to the number of quality ball handlers in the league.  I would say this is a down year in the league as it relates to guards and a good year for bigs equals more half court sets.

A big problem with you theory is that MU was third lowest.

You don't think that as a general rule teams with skilled guards play at a higher pace than the alternative?  Going into this season I don't think anyone would have believed that Mizzou's possessions per game would be so low.  I don't know how anyone wouldn't see Mizzou's PP40 as a statistical anomaly.  Of course you know that when analyzing any stat its okay to throw out certain outliers and anomalies.

I agree that MU is just weird and kind of an anomaly. On the flip side, KU is the second fastest and they have a POY at the 4. You can also look at Frank's teams: our 2008 team w/ Beasley at the 5 and Walker at the 4 and Clent Stewart and Blake Young playing a shitload of guard minutes was Frank's fastest pace by quite a bit.

It's not that there are anomalies, it's that there doesn't seem to be any correlation between ball handling ability and pace, at least compared to other factors. There are simply too many factors at play for one item to stick out even a little bit as a driving factor for pace. OR% and DR% can play a big part of it, as can defensive style. Really, the addition of Haith and Gillispie had more to do with the decreased pace than anything. Those guys' teams played A LOT slower than their predecessors.

[ben ji]

I guess it kind of makes sense that it would be close since everyone is playing each other, but the narrow range of pace numbers is crazy.

It has been a crazy year in the Big 12 if you look at historical PPG numbers. You forced me to make another chart. I hope we aren't trying to become the Big 10. 

K-State highlighted in purple.

I'd be willing to bet the PPG numbers each year can be directly attributed to the number of quality ball handlers in the league.  I would say this is a down year in the league as it relates to guards and a good year for bigs equals more half court sets.

A big problem with you theory is that MU was third lowest.

You don't think that as a general rule teams with skilled guards play at a higher pace than the alternative?  Going into this season I don't think anyone would have believed that Mizzou's possessions per game would be so low.  I don't know how anyone wouldn't see Mizzou's PP40 as a statistical anomaly.  Of course you know that when analyzing any stat its okay to throw out certain outliers and anomalies.

I agree that MU is just weird and kind of an anomaly. On the flip side, KU is the second fastest and they have a POY at the 4. You can also look at Frank's teams: our 2008 team w/ Beasley at the 5 and Walker at the 4 and Clent Stewart and Blake Young playing a shitload of guard minutes was Frank's fastest pace by quite a bit.

It's not that there are anomalies, it's that there doesn't seem to be any correlation between ball handling ability and pace, at least compared to other factors. There are simply too many factors at play for one item to stick out even a little bit as a driving factor for pace. OR% and DR% can play a big part of it, as can defensive style. Really, the addition of Haith and Gillispie had more to do with the decreased pace than anything. Those guys' teams played A LOT slower than their predecessors.

Could it be that having a skilled(see future NBA Player) on your team leads to faster play? Get the ball to Beasley/Walker/Trob and they shoot right away? You wouldnt need to run the pinwheel in circles and wait for the perfect backdoor cut/open 3 if you have a guy who can always make his own shot.

[Stevesie60]

Yeah, but the league has had NBA-bound bigs on teams for the past 20 years. I think the reason for slower paced games this season is that a lot of teams have not had much of a bench. It would be easy to wear down the 6-7 guys you want on the court if you played a fast-paced game the whole time.

I think there's been less of a bench, anyway. MU and KU are the obvious ones. Didn't some of Tech's guys leave? OSU and A&M have had injuries.

Maybe this stuff happens every year, but I can't remember a year where this many teams had such a short bench.

[michigancat]

Could it be that having a skilled(see future NBA Player) on your team leads to faster play? Get the ball to Beasley/Walker/Trob and they shoot right away? You wouldnt need to run the pinwheel in circles and wait for the perfect backdoor cut/open 3 if you have a guy who can always make his own shot.

yes, it definitely could. But you look at teams with the best players in the NCAA and they don't really play at a high pace, (other than UNC.)

[michigancat]

Yeah, but the league has had NBA-bound bigs on teams for the past 20 years. I think the reason for slower paced games this season is that a lot of teams have not had much of a bench. It would be easy to wear down the 6-7 guys you want on the court if you played a fast-paced game the whole time.

I think there's been less of a bench, anyway. MU and KU are the obvious ones. Didn't some of Tech's guys leave? OSU and A&M have had injuries.

Maybe this stuff happens every year, but I can't remember a year where this many teams had such a short bench.

great point. Tech had a game where they only played 6 guys and I think 4 of them played 38+ minutes or something ridiculous like that.

[kso_FAN]

After looking at the pace comparisons, I had to go further. Here are the last 10 years offensive and defensive efficiencies. Also included average pace. Each season is sorted by offense (high to low) and defense (low to high). Color coded by teams.

[Cire]

Remember when people said wooly's defense was really good?

[michigancat]

Remember when people said wooly's defense was really good?

Man, that 03-04 season. Even in PPP but 6-10?

[Cire]

We were ready to turn the corner

[Powercat Posse]

The pace per game has changed from year to year in the 5 years under Frank.    But here are some numbers using points =

1)  When we allow under 70 (69 pts or less)....... our record is 34-7.   

2)  When we score 75 pts or more ..... our record is 32-4.   And 2 of those losses were because the game went into OT.  Home losses to KU and Isu in 2010, we did not have 75 pts when regulation concluded.   Also our win in OT in Texas 2009 we did not have 75 when OT started. So 31-2 when we scored 75 or more in regulation



It appears like the ave pace over Frank's 5 years is 69.    So, from an overall average standpoint, if we hold our Big 12 opp to 69 pts or under (or 1.00 or under) we are winning 83%  of the time (34-7)

50-32 overall in 5 years.  Exactly 50% of those games we have held our opp to under 70pts.   When we don't our record is 16-25



On the flipside, using that 69 pace ave for the 5 years, if we are score 75 or more pts (ave out to be 1.09ppp or more) then we are 31-2.   Obviously in the 3 OT games (KU Isu 2010 Texas 2009), the number of poss. for the game is going to be higher with the extra 5 minutes.   

FYI, Those 2 losses are 92-86 at Baylor and at T Tech 84-75 (both 2008)

So 31-2 when we scored 75pts or more by end of regualtion ( and we do this 40% of the time)
When we don't our record is 19-30







 

[MakeItRain]

I guess it kind of makes sense that it would be close since everyone is playing each other, but the narrow range of pace numbers is crazy.

It has been a crazy year in the Big 12 if you look at historical PPG numbers. You forced me to make another chart. I hope we aren't trying to become the Big 10. 

K-State highlighted in purple.

I'd be willing to bet the PPG numbers each year can be directly attributed to the number of quality ball handlers in the league.  I would say this is a down year in the league as it relates to guards and a good year for bigs equals more half court sets.

A big problem with you theory is that MU was third lowest.

You don't think that as a general rule teams with skilled guards play at a higher pace than the alternative?  Going into this season I don't think anyone would have believed that Mizzou's possessions per game would be so low.  I don't know how anyone wouldn't see Mizzou's PP40 as a statistical anomaly.  Of course you know that when analyzing any stat its okay to throw out certain outliers and anomalies.

I agree that MU is just weird and kind of an anomaly. On the flip side, KU is the second fastest and they have a POY at the 4. You can also look at Frank's teams: our 2008 team w/ Beasley at the 5 and Walker at the 4 and Clent Stewart and Blake Young playing a shitload of guard minutes was Frank's fastest pace by quite a bit.

It's not that there are anomalies, it's that there doesn't seem to be any correlation between ball handling ability and pace, at least compared to other factors. There are simply too many factors at play for one item to stick out even a little bit as a driving factor for pace. OR% and DR% can play a big part of it, as can defensive style. Really, the addition of Haith and Gillispie had more to do with the decreased pace than anything. Those guys' teams played A LOT slower than their predecessors.

It wasn't my intent to simplify the issue to just one reason for the decrease, the skilled guard talking point is just the one that I feel is the most important.  Also look at the bigs you mentioned, they are all athletic and capable of playing at a higher pace.  I also agree that Haith is a big reason for Mizzou's pace reduction, it was still nearly impossible to think their pace would have slowed that much.

[Cire]

Does mizzou have less possessions because they don't miss much our get many secs chances?

[michigancat]

It wasn't my intent to simplify the issue to just one reason for the decrease, the skilled guard talking point is just the one that I feel is the most important.  Also look at the bigs you mentioned, they are all athletic and capable of playing at a higher pace.  I also agree that Haith is a big reason for Mizzou's pace reduction, it was still nearly impossible to think their pace would have slowed that much.

I get it - I'm saying I don't think PG skill has anything to do with pace at this level. Pretty much any Big 12 PG is capable of playing at the pace their coach wants them to play (in addition to the fact that there are so many factors that go into pace).

Does mizzou have less possessions because they don't miss much our get many secs chances?

lots of OR's would actually make your pace lower - possessions only end with a made basket, defensive rebound, or turnover.

[SdK]

After looking at the pace comparisons, I had to go further. Here are the last 10 years offensive and defensive efficiencies. Also included average pace. Each season is sorted by offense (high to low) and defense (low to high). Color coded by teams.

Did you intentionally make the KU one eff with my eyes?

[kso_FAN]

Coming today! 10 year trend charts for each the four factors!

It is interesting (to me at least) to see the trends with teams. Its also easy to see why KU wins the league each year, Self's defensive efficiency and defensive eFG% numbers are ridiculously good every year. Also could shed some light on the discussion before of why the pace slowed down so much. The last 5 years the pace has sort of trended with the points per possession numbers, but the previous 5 years not so much.

[kso_FAN]

Get your stats straight!