In late October ISU looked like they might win 4 games after starting Big 12 play with 4 lopsided losses. However, Rhodes did his thing with a win at Tech, and then the shocker over OSU. They competed in Norman and had an unimpressive win against KU mixed in and in many ways their formula has been similar to ours; a strong running game featuring the option, a good return game, and taking advantage of turnovers. In fact probably the key features to their 3 game winning streak were running for 200 yards in each game (nearly 400 vs Tech) and being +2 in TOs in each of their wins over Tech and OSU.
However, ISU has some key weaknesses; namely an inability to score on offense (#114 in points per play at .30) and a very high rate of turning the ball over (#114 in TOs per play at .034). They have only scored over 30 points twice in Big 12 play and have had 3 or more TOs in 8 of their 12 games. Defensively they have been similar to K-State; slightly better in YPP and PPP given up, but slighly worse in forcing TOs. They are also similar in the return game both offensively and defensively, however they have not scored on a return and have given up return points.
ISU is good enough to compete and win in Manhattan, but it will take K-State having uncharacteristic mistakes in at least 2 phases (and probably all 3) to lose this game. ISU likely has to win TO margin by +2/3, win special teams, AND be much more explosive on offense than they've been in any other game. I just don't see all those things happening; K-State's experience, a much more efficient offense, and a chance at a Big 12 title will be too much for ISU to overcome.
Cats 31
Cyclones 17
Key per play stats:
ISU Off yards per play: 4.97 (#100)
ISU Off points per play: .30 (#108)
ISU Off TOs per possession: .034 (#114)
ISU return game yards per return (KO and Punt): 20.17 (#17)
ISU Def YPP: 5.66 (#75)
ISU Def PPP: .38 (#63)
ISU Def TO forced PP: .034 (#38)
ISU return def YPR: 15.91 (#22)
KSU Off YPP: 4.91 (#104)
KSU Off PPP: .48 (#27)
KSU Off TOPP: .017 (#12)
KSU Ret YPP: 21.46 (#5)
KSU Def YPP: 5.75 (#81)
KSU Def PPP: .40 (#74)
KSU Def TOFPP: .031 (#25)
KSU Ret Def YPP: 16.45 (#28)
