Even if Houston loses, I don't see Boise State dropping out of the top 16.
Boise right now isn't gonna win their conference, which would be a requirement for them.
This sounds crazy, but if Houston and Southern Miss both win out going into the CUSA title, then that game becomes a BCS play-in game.
USM is #20, TCU is #19. If USM beats Houston they will pass TCU go up to #19. #15 thru #18 are all BigTen schools and atleast 2 of them will lose. That moves them up 2 spots to #17. Sitting at #14 is Georgia with 2 loses and another probable loss in the BCS championship game, that loss probably knocks them out of the top 16 to let USM. USM wins out, coupled with Houston beating SMU and Tulsa, and there is a very good chance they play in the Sugar or Orange bowls.