Key per play stats:
OU Off yards per play: 6.71 (#9)
OU Off points per play: .54 (#15)
OU Off TOs per possession: .023 (#53)
OU return game yards per return (KO and Punt): 16.56 (#85)
OU Def YPP: 4.85 (#28)
OU Def PPP: .27 (#15)
OU Def TO forced PP: .029 (#41)
OU return def YPR: 19.64 (#92)
KSU Off YPP: 5.15 (#88)
KSU Off PPP: .49 (#29)
KSU Off TOPP: .015 (#11)
KSU Ret YPP: 20.86 (#13)
KSU Def YPP: 5.05 (#36)
KSU Def PPP: .30 (#27)
KSU Def TOFPP: .032 (#26)
KSU Ret Def YPP: 17.23 (#50)
The match-up is actually pretty even. OU has the more explosive offense (not a surprise), but when you look at points per play the difference isn't as dramatic. OU's defense is slightly better in YPP and PPP, but overall its pretty even. The big difference comes in the return game where K-State is much better both in returning and defending returns. The Cats are also better in taking care of the football and forcing turnovers.
K-State's formula doesn't change, and IMO the game is very similar to Baylor and Missouri. Facing an explosive offense the priorities are 1) stop the run, 2) limit big (20 yards or more) plays, and 3) force some FGs. OU likely gets 400+ yards, but force some turnovers and don't let them have a bunch of long TD passes. Offensively the Cats must balance things up and exploit OU overloading the box with the passing game. As silly as KU looked with 9 in the box, there will be times Saturday where OU will give similar looks and Klein and the receiving corp must get some balls completed over the top, especially off of play action. Still the Cats need to get over 4 yards per carry and must win the TO battle. Finally, it appears K-State has a large advantage in the return game and they must take advantage.
OU has shown some vulnerability and its hard at this point to pick against the Cats. If this game was at OU I would pick the Sooners, but I think the Manhattan Magic continues with our agressive yet Coshous defensive approach while Snyder and Klein take Venables to home school.
Cats 34
Sooners 30