Missouri @ KSU Preview

[jmenz223]

Lookin at the numbers:

OFFENSE
----------
Rushing ypg: KSU - 217.3 (18th)      Mizzou - 253.3 (8th)
Passing ypg: KSU - 130.8 (110th)    Mizzou - 263.8 (36th)
Points Per Game: KSU - 27.8 (70th)   Mizzou - 36.0 (30th)
Total Offense Overall: KSU - 88th    Mizzou - 11th


DEFENSE
------------

Rush Defense: KSU - 87.5 (18th)    Mizzou - 87.0 (17th)
Pass Defense: KSU - 204.5 (42nd)    Mizzou - 262.5 (97th)
Total Defense overall: KSU - 15th     Mizzou - 43rd



OVERVIEW AND PREDICTION


Kansas State is coming off another huge win over Baylor, thanks largely in part to the Defense making another great stand in the 4th quarter. Arthur Brown led the way, intercepting Robert Griffin III for the first time this season, which led to the Anthony Cantele go ahead field goal. Up 36-35, Brown proceeded to make a key sack on Griffin to pretty much seal the victory for the Cats. Klein had a good game overall, his highlight of the day being breaking free for a long 63 yard run in the 3rd quarter.

Going into the game against Missouri, its looking bleak to those outsiders who are just now noticing the Cats. They look at the game and think that Missouri has such a high powered offense and that they hung in there, for the most part, with then #1 Oklahoma, putting up 28 points and only losing by 10. Missouri (2-2) has some talented key players, including quarterback James Franklin, who like Klein is a dual threat. Franklin has amassed 985 yards through the air and 7 touchdowns to 1 interception, as well as 260 yards on the ground and 2 touchdowns. To compliment Franklin, Mizzou also has a talented former 3rd string running back named Henry Josey who ranks 5th nationally with an average of 133.3 yards per game. The Missouri Tigers are coming off of a bye week, so expect their offense to be well rested, and their stout Rush defense to be ready to slow down Klein and Hubert.

Kansas State (4-0, 1-0 in conference) looks to continue their winning ways, and Klein might have to throw the ball a little more in this game. With a lackluster pass defense, its time for Chris Harper and Brodrick Smith to shine, as long as Klein can get them the ball. I also like the use of fullback Braden Wilson as a check down reciever. If we can run some playactions to Hubert and have Wilson release to the flats, the over-pursuit of the missouri defense might yield us some yardage that way. Its something we havn't done much of so far this season, so they shouldn't be expecting it. Plus, who would want to get in front of him after he catches and starts running.....nobody with any sense. Klein is a mobile quarterback and i'm sure he will break off some large gains on the ground as well, but i'm a little bit worried that Missouri's defense, after a week off to rest, might be geared up to shut down our potent running attack. Again, I'm going to put emphasis on the passing game, we are gonna have to get it going. Missouri may be 2-2, but they aren't someone to overlook as they have very talented players on the field at all times.

Defensively, well, us true fans already know whats going on with our Defense. We know Arthur is going to harrass that young quarterback, and David Garret (as i predicted last week, almost every pass Griffin threw went to the opposite side of the field of Garrett) is going to shut down one reciever entirely. Voelker earned 1 sack last week, and i'm almost positive he will continue his streak to 5 consecutive games with a sack this week. Our defense is great, and It stopped a much better offense then Missouri's last week against Baylor, and i'm almost positive we will stop Missouri.

As for Missouri's defense, other then their rush defense i see alot of gaps and problems. Kansas State tends to score when we need to, and I'm sure that we can outscore Missouri this weekend.

35-28 Kansas State behind another strong 4th quarter defensive showing.

[deputy dawg]

Nice post jmenz223

[jmenz223]

Thanks Deputy Dawg.

Did this last week for the Baylor game too, gonna turn it into a weekly thing. Keep your eye open for em

[bigwillie20]

straight to the bottom 

[steve dave]

welcome jmenz

[pike]

Really hope we clown suit them. Idk how many close games I can handle 

[Trim]

35-28 Kansas State behind another strong 4th quarter defensive showing.

[kcchiefdav]

From jmenz last week

MY PREDICTION

I might get alot of grief for this, but the game is in Manhattan, and LHC Bill Snyder has lit a fire under this team. Kansas State wins in a game that ends alot closer then people thought it would.

This kid has a gift, I hope he's dead on again this week.

[jmenz223]

From jmenz last week

MY PREDICTION

I might get alot of grief for this, but the game is in Manhattan, and LHC LHC Bill Snyder has lit a fire under this team. Kansas State wins in a game that ends alot closer then people thought it would.

This kid has a gift, I hope he's dead on again this week.

I'm pretty sure they should just sit me next to Corso on gameday and let me hand him the Mascot Heads.

[nicname]

straight to the bottom 

Not me, the writing is pretty good.  Great post Jmenz

[hemmy]

Didn't dobbie do something exactly like this?

[Bookcat]

Defensively, well, us true fans already know whats going on with our Defense.

 

[CHONGS]

Didn't dobbie do something exactly like this?

:pointstonose:

[pissclams]

great write up jmenz, i agree with your post analysis.

[kso_FAN]

Nice job.

Some other numbers I looked at: (keep in mind the data for stats is still pretty limited, but you can still see some things)

MU Off yards per play: 6.94 (#11)
MU Off points per play: .46 (#44)
MU Off TOs per possession: .010 (#7)
MU return game yards per return (KO and Punt): 16.75 (#71)

MU Def YPP: 5.14 (#42)
MU Def PPP: .30 (#32)
MU Def TO forced PP: .022 (#76)
MU return def YPR: 15.61 (#29)

KSU Off YPP: 4.90 (#97)
KSU Off PPP: .39 (#72)
KSU Off TOPP: .021 (#47)
KSU Ret YPP: 17.35 (#62)

KSU Def YPP: 5.03 (#36)
KSU Def PPP: .28 (#27)
KSU Def TOFPP: .034 (#25)
KSU Ret Def YPP: 19.3 (#84)

The concerns are similar to last week (highlighted in red); namely MU has an explosive offense that gets big plays. The big difference is that MU's points per play isn't nearly as high as Baylor's, so MU hasn't been as effective finishing with points. K-State's YPP and PPP are both low, but part of that is by design, and we'll bring the same ball control offense that we have used all year. In the return game overall KSU has been pretty bad in coverage, but MU hasn't been great in returns. I think this is an area that could become a game change on Saturday though. Finally, MU has been very good at taking care of the ball, which is a bit surprising considering Franklin's inexperience.

Against MU our defensive focus will have to be similar to against BU; limit the run and make plays against the pass when we can. Get hits on Franklin when they are there. Try to force Franklin into mistakes. MU will have a bigger threat in the run game because Franklin is a tougher runner than Griffin, but in every other area I think we are better off this week. I don't think MU will be able to get the number of big plays through the air that Baylor did, but they will get some.

Offensively the plan remains the same, but we've got to be more effective and efficient in the passing game. If Klein can get closer to 8 YPA and 55% completions its enough as long as he avoids the forced throws. I'd like to see more play action and less drop back passing. Of course we need to get the running game going and plenty of that will be stretch read, it will be curious to see if MU will force the give like BU did and try to make Hubert beat them. We have only been average with our power running game the last two weeks as well, I'd like to see that be more effective. I'd also like to see Klein be more willing to tuck the ball and run when the pocket breaks down.

In the return game we know MU has some athletes, so I expect to see more spot placements and high shorter kicks on kickoffs. We have had a few decent returns this year, but overall the return game hasn't lived up to what K-State fans expect. A big key in this game (besides TO margin) could be to break a big return or two against MU. With our limitations on offense we need to find more ways to gain or turn field position and the return game is a major way to do that.

K-State 31
Missouri 24

For reference, NCAA FBS averages:

Off PPP: .42
Off YPP: 5.71
Off Returns YPP: 17.75
Off TOPP: .024

Def PPP: .36
Def YPP: 5.34
Def Returns YPP: 17.86
Def TOPP: .026

[DQ12]

 

[Fedor]

Can someone explain Josey's 12.4 ypc to me.  Preferably in a way that makes it very flukey and innocuous.

[kso_FAN]

Can someone explain Josey's 12.4 ypc to me.  Preferably in a way that makes it very flukey and innocuous.

Its not real flukey. Its blown up a bit by his ridiculous 263 yards on 14 carries (18.8 per) against Western Illinois, but he still averaged 7.2 against MiamiOH, 10.4 vs ASU, and 9.5 against OU. He doesn't get the ball a ton and they rely on Franklin more to carry (he leads with 72 carries) and he averages only 3.6 per.

[pissclams]

love the jealousy streaming from _FAN in this post.  jmenz just rolled up and ganked his crap. 

Nice job.

Some other numbers I looked at: (keep in mind the data for stats is still pretty limited, but you can still see some things)

MU Off yards per play: 6.94 (#11)
MU Off points per play: .46 (#44)
MU Off TOs per possession: .010 (#7)
MU return game yards per return (KO and Punt): 16.75 (#71)

MU Def YPP: 5.14 (#42)
MU Def PPP: .30 (#32)
MU Def TO forced PP: .022 (#76)
MU return def YPR: 15.61 (#29)

KSU Off YPP: 4.90 (#97)
KSU Off PPP: .39 (#72)
KSU Off TOPP: .021 (#47)
KSU Ret YPP: 17.35 (#62)

KSU Def YPP: 5.03 (#36)
KSU Def PPP: .28 (#27)
KSU Def TOFPP: .034 (#25)
KSU Ret Def YPP: 19.3 (#84)

The concerns are similar to last week (highlighted in red); namely MU has an explosive offense that gets big plays. The big difference is that MU's points per play isn't nearly as high as Baylor's, so MU hasn't been as effective finishing with points. K-State's YPP and PPP are both low, but part of that is by design, and we'll bring the same ball control offense that we have used all year. In the return game overall KSU has been pretty bad in coverage, but MU hasn't been great in returns. I think this is an area that could become a game change on Saturday though. Finally, MU has been very good at taking care of the ball, which is a bit surprising considering Franklin's inexperience.

Against MU our defensive focus will have to be similar to against BU; limit the run and make plays against the pass when we can. Get hits on Franklin when they are there. Try to force Franklin into mistakes. MU will have a bigger threat in the run game because Franklin is a tougher runner than Griffin, but in every other area I think we are better off this week. I don't think MU will be able to get the number of big plays through the air that Baylor did, but they will get some.

Offensively the plan remains the same, but we've got to be more effective and efficient in the passing game. If Klein can get closer to 8 YPA and 55% completions its enough as long as he avoids the forced throws. I'd like to see more play action and less drop back passing. Of course we need to get the running game going and plenty of that will be stretch read, it will be curious to see if MU will force the give like BU did and try to make Hubert beat them. We have only been average with our power running game the last two weeks as well, I'd like to see that be more effective. I'd also like to see Klein be more willing to tuck the ball and run when the pocket breaks down.

In the return game we know MU has some athletes, so I expect to see more spot placements and high shorter kicks on kickoffs. We have had a few decent returns this year, but overall the return game hasn't lived up to what K-State fans expect. A big key in this game (besides TO margin) could be to break a big return or two against MU. With our limitations on offense we need to find more ways to gain or turn field position and the return game is a major way to do that.

K-State 31
Missouri 24

For reference, NCAA FBS averages:

Off PPP: .42
Off YPP: 5.71
Off Returns YPP: 17.75
Off TOPP: .024

Def PPP: .36
Def YPP: 5.34
Def Returns YPP: 17.86
Def TOPP: .026

[Dr Rick Daris]

love the jealousy streaming from _FAN in this post.  jmenz just rolled up and ganked his crap. 

Nice job.

Some other numbers I looked at: (keep in mind the data for stats is still pretty limited, but you can still see some things)

MU Off yards per play: 6.94 (#11)
MU Off points per play: .46 (#44)
MU Off TOs per possession: .010 (#7)
MU return game yards per return (KO and Punt): 16.75 (#71)

MU Def YPP: 5.14 (#42)
MU Def PPP: .30 (#32)
MU Def TO forced PP: .022 (#76)
MU return def YPR: 15.61 (#29)

KSU Off YPP: 4.90 (#97)
KSU Off PPP: .39 (#72)
KSU Off TOPP: .021 (#47)
KSU Ret YPP: 17.35 (#62)

KSU Def YPP: 5.03 (#36)
KSU Def PPP: .28 (#27)
KSU Def TOFPP: .034 (#25)
KSU Ret Def YPP: 19.3 (#84)

The concerns are similar to last week (highlighted in red); namely MU has an explosive offense that gets big plays. The big difference is that MU's points per play isn't nearly as high as Baylor's, so MU hasn't been as effective finishing with points. K-State's YPP and PPP are both low, but part of that is by design, and we'll bring the same ball control offense that we have used all year. In the return game overall KSU has been pretty bad in coverage, but MU hasn't been great in returns. I think this is an area that could become a game change on Saturday though. Finally, MU has been very good at taking care of the ball, which is a bit surprising considering Franklin's inexperience.

Against MU our defensive focus will have to be similar to against BU; limit the run and make plays against the pass when we can. Get hits on Franklin when they are there. Try to force Franklin into mistakes. MU will have a bigger threat in the run game because Franklin is a tougher runner than Griffin, but in every other area I think we are better off this week. I don't think MU will be able to get the number of big plays through the air that Baylor did, but they will get some.

Offensively the plan remains the same, but we've got to be more effective and efficient in the passing game. If Klein can get closer to 8 YPA and 55% completions its enough as long as he avoids the forced throws. I'd like to see more play action and less drop back passing. Of course we need to get the running game going and plenty of that will be stretch read, it will be curious to see if MU will force the give like BU did and try to make Hubert beat them. We have only been average with our power running game the last two weeks as well, I'd like to see that be more effective. I'd also like to see Klein be more willing to tuck the ball and run when the pocket breaks down.

In the return game we know MU has some athletes, so I expect to see more spot placements and high shorter kicks on kickoffs. We have had a few decent returns this year, but overall the return game hasn't lived up to what K-State fans expect. A big key in this game (besides TO margin) could be to break a big return or two against MU. With our limitations on offense we need to find more ways to gain or turn field position and the return game is a major way to do that.

K-State 31
Missouri 24

For reference, NCAA FBS averages:

Off PPP: .42
Off YPP: 5.71
Off Returns YPP: 17.75
Off TOPP: .024

Def PPP: .36
Def YPP: 5.34
Def Returns YPP: 17.86
Def TOPP: .026

oh great. now _fan is going to have to come back in here and have some super nice guy post about how jmenz had really good stuff/etc. 

[Lucas Scoopsalot]

JMenz is fire!  I will expect these on a weekly occurance and into basketball season! Then maybe we can share a brewski together! 

[steve dave]

YEAH LUKE, YEAH!

[Dr Rick Daris]

YEAH LUKE, YEAH!

DOUBLE DOWN FOR THIS PLAYER. TWICE A WEEK JMENZ. TWICE A WEEK!

[CatsFan_58]

Didn't dobbie do something exactly like this?

He was very entertaining.

[yoEMAW]

Jmenz does it again!!!