A year later

[weird roberts foam finger]

Was thinking about how great life is at No. 6 today    but then remembered how last year ended and got a little     What has changed since last year?  For all the talk of depth on the roster, I think it's simply a matter of the starters getting better.

Here's kenpom's ranking of the 2009-10 and 2008-09 Cats:

                                                                                                 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE      NON-CONF SOS
Rnk Team                 Conf   W-L   Pyth    AdjO/Rnk  AdjD/Rnk    Cons/Rnk  Luck/Rnk   Pyth/Rnk  OppO/Rnk  OppD/Rnk    Pyth/Rnk

  9 Kansas St.            B12  23-4  .9571   116.7/10   89.1/22     16.0/22  -.010/192  .7639/6   106.5/14   96.2/13    .5912/104

 44 Kansas St.           B12  22-12 .8631   109.2/65   93.0/42     27.6/341 -.027/222  .6608/75  105.0/64   99.1/86    .4028/282

Obviously, the offense is way better than last year (as has been discussed), but the consistency jump is even bigger.  It's sort of ridiculous, actually.  That's a clear indication that the entire team is doing well from game to game, but looking at some of the offensive efficiency numbers of the players, it seems like the "starting" 5's offensive efficiency has gone up (four players at 108 rating or higher vs. one in 08-09) while the "backups"' have gone down (two players at 104 rating or higher vs. four in 08-09). 

What does this mean?  It means Jake, Kelly, Clemente, JamSam and Sutton are dominating, but that last year's team was actually "deeper" than this one.  Our depth is good, but it could be problematic if the "big 5" get into foul trouble.  Glad we've got Colon starting and hacking the heck out of people. 

[mcmwcat]

clarify "starting" 5 please

[weird roberts foam finger]

Jake, Kelly, Clemente, JamSam and Sutton -- top five performers in terms of minutes earned.

[WildCatzPhreak]

Look at the differences in the post from last year to this year.

We traded Kent for Kelly.  We traded Anderson for Judge.  We have a player like Jamar Samuels coming off the freakin' bench.

The guards are the same, and there's probably something to them improving from last year to this year.  But I think it's in large part thanks to the fact that our guards don't have to carry as much of the load this year because we have better players in the frontcourt than we had last year.  We've also got more depth this year than we've had in my entire lifetime.

[weird roberts foam finger]

Look at the differences in the post from last year to this year.

We traded Kent for Kelly.  We traded Anderson for Judge.  We have a player like Jamar Samuels coming off the freakin' bench.

The guards are the same, and there's probably something to them improving from last year to this year.  But I think it's in large part thanks to the fact that our guards don't have to carry as much of the load this year because we have better players in the frontcourt than we had last year.  We've also got more depth this year than we've had in my entire lifetime.

My point is we don't.  We're more reliant on our top five guys (Pullen, Clemente, Samuels, Kelly & Sutton averaging 66.64% of K-State's minutes individually) than we were on our top five guys last year (Pullen, Clemente, Samuels, Kent & Sutton averaging 61.64% of K-State's minutes).  Not that that's a bad thing, but our bench simply brought more to the table last year than it did this year.

[kso_FAN]

My point is we don't.  We're more reliant on our top five guys (Pullen, Clemente, Samuels, Kelly & Sutton averaging 66.64% of K-State's minutes individually) than we were on our top five guys last year (Pullen, Clemente, Samuels, Kent & Sutton averaging 61.64% of K-State's minutes).  Not that that's a bad thing, but our bench simply brought more to the table last year than it did this year.

Its probably a bit much to say "our bench brings more to the table", unless you are basing it purely on comparison between seasons and not on ability.  It is fair to say fewer players take on more of our minutes, but then again we're better at every single position on  the floor than we were last year.  So with better players, it makes sense that we'd rely more on those players.  Plus, our bench is much younger, so we have the luxury of bringing them along slower and keeping our better players in the game if guys coming off the bench don't produce.

[weird roberts foam finger]

My point is we don't.  We're more reliant on our top five guys (Pullen, Clemente, Samuels, Kelly & Sutton averaging 66.64% of K-State's minutes individually) than we were on our top five guys last year (Pullen, Clemente, Samuels, Kent & Sutton averaging 61.64% of K-State's minutes).  Not that that's a bad thing, but our bench simply brought more to the table last year than it did this year.

Its probably a bit much to say "our bench brings more to the table", unless you are basing it purely on comparison between seasons and not on ability.  It is fair to say fewer players take on more of our minutes, but then again we're better at every single position on  the floor than we were last year.  So with better players, it makes sense that we'd rely more on those players.  Plus, our bench is much younger, so we have the luxury of bringing them along slower and keeping our better players in the game if guys coming off the bench don't produce.

Yep.  I think lots of people are walking around thinking the bench is "better" than it was last year.  By any objective standard it is not.  I agree with you that the kids are young, ergo they will probably get better, ergo this bench may have a ton of potential.  But if you want to look at this biggest difference between last year and this year, it's simply that the starters are playing at a much higher (and much more consistent) level.

[slimz]

This discussion is a bit hard to follow due to the redefinition of several of the terms involved.

However, last year we had 8 players who were at or above 20% in terms of % of minutes played.

This year, we have 11.  That seems to speak to depth in some way.   

To the broader point, the big reason we're better this year is that Lu is getting 23% of minutes instead of 44%, White Tiger & Ron are gone, and in their place we have Curtis Kelly and an improved Jamar.

[CHONGS]

Is the argument of not having as "deep" a team this year solely based on playing time?  I guess I am confused as to what the argument is. 

[sys]

i think the point is that kelly is fantastic.

[weird roberts foam finger]

i think the point is that kelly is fantastic.

Well, that is true.

More my point was this:  "the "starting" 5's offensive efficiency has gone up (four players at 108 rating or higher vs. one in 08-09) while the "backups"' have gone down (two players at 104 rating or higher vs. four in 08-09). "

We're much more reliant on our top five than we were last year, as partly demonstrated by the minute% numbers, but more effectively by the above.  The top 5 is more efficient and gets more time as a result of that.  I think the team is vulnerable should one of the top 5 go out for an extended period, however.  More vulnerable than it would have been even a year ago.

[1/64th]

This is when I hate math and math people in general.     The numbers say one thing when in reality we are clearly better from top to bottom than last year.  Let's play this game, if our first 5 bench players from last year played our first 5 bench players from this year, who would win?  No question....09-10. 

BTW, I think at least one flaw in WRFF's analysis is that it only takes offense into consideration.  I have not and will not look at the stats, but I would assume they say that Ron Anderson is/was better than Wally.     

I love a good statistical analysis, but only ones that make sense when compared to reality.  This one does not. 

[bleedpurple]

i think the point is that kelly is fantastic.

Well, that is true.

More my point was this:  "the "starting" 5's offensive efficiency has gone up (four players at 108 rating or higher vs. one in 08-09) while the "backups"' have gone down (two players at 104 rating or higher vs. four in 08-09). "

We're much more reliant on our top five than we were last year, as partly demonstrated by the minute% numbers, but more effectively by the above.  The top 5 is more efficient and gets more time as a result of that.  I think the team is vulnerable should one of the top 5 go out for an extended period, however.  More vulnerable than it would have been even a year ago.

We have better depth this year. I'm not even sure why this is even an argument. Fred Brown, Buchi Awaji, Ron Anderson and freshman Jamar Samuels < McGruder, Irving, Judge, Henriquez, Russell, and a much improved Samuels. I'm not sure how our depth hasn't changed or is worse or is whatever you're trying to say other than, it is better.

[weird roberts foam finger]

I've been saying this whole thread Samuels is a starter in terms of minutes, so you throw him out of this discussion (both years).

That leaves:
Colon, Brown, Awaji, Anderson, Ojeleye, Herrara, Werner, Merriewether vs.
Colon, McGruder, Irving, Judge, Henriquez, Russell, Ojeleye, Merriewether

The first group is better offensively in basically every major category (Colon has actually regressed).  Offensive efficiency (avg. 107.24 to 96.02), turnover rate (avg. 21.26 to 24.46), field goal percentage (.450 to .421), ppg (21.5 to 15.2), and so on. 

Who's better defensively?  Subjectively I'd say the second group, but the numbers only hint at that.  As a team, K-State is better defensively in 09-10 by about 4 points in adjusted efficiency, but that spike almost certainly reflects more on the Big 5's improvement on defense rather than the rest of the team's.  More likely, the defense is about the same or maybe slightly better.

I'm sorta bored with this topic by now, but I'm pretty well convinced at this point that the bench could be a problem come tournament time, especially when it comes to scoring (probably my biggest fear is one of the Big 5 getting injured).  Take it or leave it. 

[WildcatNkilt]

I've been saying this whole thread Samuels is a starter in terms of minutes, so you throw him out of this discussion (both years).

That leaves:
Colon, Brown, Awaji, Anderson, Ojeleye, Herrara, Werner, Merriewether vs.
Colon, McGruder, Irving, Judge, Henriquez, Russell, Ojeleye, Merriewether

The first group is better offensively in basically every major category (Colon has actually regressed).  Offensive efficiency (avg. 107.24 to 96.02), turnover rate (avg. 21.26 to 24.46), field goal percentage (.450 to .421), ppg (21.5 to 15.2), and so on.  

Who's better defensively?  Subjectively I'd say the second group, but the numbers only hint at that.  As a team, K-State is better defensively in 09-10 by about 4 points in adjusted efficiency, but that spike almost certainly reflects more on the Big 5's improvement on defense rather than the rest of the team's.  More likely, the defense is about the same or maybe slightly better.

I'm sorta bored with this topic by now, but I'm pretty well convinced at this point that the bench could be a problem come tournament time, especially when it comes to scoring (probably my biggest fear is one of the Big 5 getting injured).  Take it or leave it.  

I think this year the bench knows their role a bit more than they did last year.  Thats why Martin can pretty much mix and match with whoever he wants on the floor.  Because of this, I would disagree that our bench would hurt us come tournament time.  

Case 1:  Irving knows his first major role is to play incredible defense and get the ball to our playmakers (Pullen and Clemente), but when he gets a good look he will take a shot (and usually make it).  He has also created other opportunites for our playmakers and posts by driving to the basket and creating fouls or dishing it out to Clemente or Pullen behind the line.

Case 2:  McGruder also knows that his first major role is to play incredible defense and then to get the ball to our playmakers.  His defense has been sketchy at times, which in turn has reduced his PT.  When he gets an open look, he will take the 3 and usually hits.

My point is...these guys have roles.  The role of the bench players last year was not the same because our playmakers in Pullen and Clemente were not as consistent as they are this year, and we are obvioulsy much stronger in the post than we were last year.

[michigancat]

i think the point is that kelly is fantastic.

Most under-appreciated member of team.  BY FAR.

[bleedpurple]

I've been saying this whole thread Samuels is a starter in terms of minutes, so you throw him out of this discussion (both years).

That leaves:
Colon, Brown, Awaji, Anderson, Ojeleye, Herrara, Werner, Merriewether vs.
Colon, McGruder, Irving, Judge, Henriquez, Russell, Ojeleye, Merriewether

The first group is better offensively in basically every major category (Colon has actually regressed).  Offensive efficiency (avg. 107.24 to 96.02), turnover rate (avg. 21.26 to 24.46), field goal percentage (.450 to .421), ppg (21.5 to 15.2), and so on. 

Who's better defensively?  Subjectively I'd say the second group, but the numbers only hint at that.  As a team, K-State is better defensively in 09-10 by about 4 points in adjusted efficiency, but that spike almost certainly reflects more on the Big 5's improvement on defense rather than the rest of the team's.  More likely, the defense is about the same or maybe slightly better.

I'm sorta bored with this topic by now, but I'm pretty well convinced at this point that the bench could be a problem come tournament time, especially when it comes to scoring (probably my biggest fear is one of the Big 5 getting injured).  Take it or leave it. 

So since our bench is worse this year, and colon is worse this year, that means the lone addition of kelly and pullen being better and jam sam being better, that that jumped us from NIT, to #6 in the nation? The only reason we are now #6 is because we have better starters? No. Dont think so.

[WildCatzPhreak]

i think the point is that kelly is fantastic.

kelly is soft, lazy, weak.  poor rebounder (grabs some o boards, but sucks on d boards) and worse defender.

so he can score a bit.  other people can score without giving it right back.

 

[hemmy]

lol

[raquetcat]

I've been saying this whole thread Samuels is a starter in terms of minutes, so you throw him out of this discussion (both years).

That leaves:
Colon, Brown, Awaji, Anderson, Ojeleye, Herrara, Werner, Merriewether vs.
Colon, McGruder, Irving, Judge, Henriquez, Russell, Ojeleye, Merriewether

The first group is better offensively in basically every major category (Colon has actually regressed).  Offensive efficiency (avg. 107.24 to 96.02), turnover rate (avg. 21.26 to 24.46), field goal percentage (.450 to .421), ppg (21.5 to 15.2), and so on. 

Who's better defensively?  Subjectively I'd say the second group, but the numbers only hint at that.  As a team, K-State is better defensively in 09-10 by about 4 points in adjusted efficiency, but that spike almost certainly reflects more on the Big 5's improvement on defense rather than the rest of the team's.  More likely, the defense is about the same or maybe slightly better.

I'm sorta bored with this topic by now, but I'm pretty well convinced at this point that the bench could be a problem come tournament time, especially when it comes to scoring (probably my biggest fear is one of the Big 5 getting injured).  Take it or leave it. 

So since our bench is worse this year, and colon is worse this year, that means the lone addition of kelly and pullen being better and jam sam being better, that that jumped us from NIT, to #6 in the nation? The only reason we are now #6 is because we have better starters? No. Dont think so.

Yes these are the main reasons we are good this year, the others factor in a little bit, but mostly it's ^^^^^

[sys]

i think the point is that kelly is fantastic.

kelly is soft, lazy, weak.  poor rebounder (grabs some o boards, but sucks on d boards) and worse defender.

so he can score a bit.  other people can score without giving it right back.

 

i'm aware.

[Cire]

to be fair to sys.  Kelly was those things early in the year.

[kstatefreak42]

08-09 lineup                
 Clemente- scored in bunches, not as consistent Elite Speed. Didn't showcase his true point guard skills like he has this year.
 Pullen- You didn't know what you were going to get with pullen each night, could shoot lights out from 3pt, or he could go scoreless.
 Sutton- Scared to death offensively, lacked confidence all around. But still really athletic, shutdown defender.
 Kent- He's white tiger.
 Colon- Big body, Just garbage.

09-10
 Clemente- Better Floor leader, Seems to be a better passer. Elite Speed
 Pullen- Better Leader, more consistent, improved 3pt shot. Dribbling and slashing is more effective.
 Sutton- More confident, better shot ( as of late) extremely athletic, still the lock-down defender.
 Kelly- Best inside scorer, can step out and shoot the Jump shot, can slash just a bit. Good defender when he tries, lazy at times.
 Colon- big body, just garbage.
 
 Bench Play
08-09''
Buchi Awaji, Chris Merrieweather, Jamar Samuels ( the one who couldn't shoot nor dribble),  Ron Anderson- wasnt very good. "downtown" Freddie Brown.

09-10
Jamar Samuels upgraded version. Chris Merrieweather, Martavious Irving- great defender, hits open shot usually., Rodney McGruder- shooter, defense is coming along. still timid with the ball in his hands, Wally Judge- cant come up with an Assessment of him.. he shows great skills vs KU then disapeers. ,  Occasionally JHR, Nick Russell.
 Again this is  just my opinion because the mathematical numbers don't decide who is better. If you cant tell whos better than your a rough ridin' vegetable.