Way early 11-12 MPG prognostication

[kso_FAN]

Meek just tweeted a line-up projection and it got me thinking.  I rounded to nearest 5 minutes with +/- indicating my initial feel if over or under that amount. Also, the minutes add up to more than the total possible amount, but averages for a season generally do because of players missing games or not playing in games, etc.

Combos:
Spradling 25+
Jones 20-
Irving 20+
Rodriguez 15+
Lawrence 10-

Swing:
McGruder 30+
Southwell 15+
Williams 10-

Forwards:
Samuels 25+
JHR 20+
Watson 15-
Gipson 15-
Diaz 10-

Walk-ons:
Peterson 5+
Ojeleye 5+

This one is really hard to call. I'm way over in total minutes, but I'm not sure at this point who to cut. Its hard to call what happens with guys like Peterson or Lawrence. Or will Southwell have a similar role or a completely different one. Or how well Jones transitions. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out and who buys in and who quits.


Here is mine for last year from November (post OOC) and from July.

[jtksu]

What was Meeks project line-up?

[kso_FAN]

What was Meeks project line-up?

Here's one guess at a starting five:

PG -- Will Spradling, soph.

SG -- Shane Southwell, soph.

SF -- Rodney McGruder, jr.

PF -- Jamar Samuels, sr.

C -- Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, jr.

Bench

F -- Nino Williams, r-fr.

G -- Jeremy Jones, jr.

G -- Martavious Irving, jr.

G -- Angel Rodriguez, fr.

F -- Thomas Gipson, fr.

G -- Omari Lawrence, jr.

F -- James Watson, jr.

F -- Adrian Diaz, fr.

G -- Devon Peterson, sr. (walk-on)

F -- Victor Ojeleye, sr. (walk-on)

[jtksu]

That's really not too bad of a starting five.  Tournament worthy?

[kso_FAN]

That's really not too bad of a starting five.  Tournament worthy?

Perhaps, I don't think defense/rebounding will take a big hit, but we've got to find a way to score.

I think it will be interesting to see if Southwell starts at SG. I think its more likely he gets some minutes there, and the rest spelling McGruder at SF. You've got too many other options at the combo spots and we all know (at least for a while) Frank will run them all out there.

And I have no idea on Williams either.

[catzacker]

It will be weird seeing Irving play as much as he probably will.  Jones’ minutes will be interesting because he’s going to have battle through Frank Proving Points which will inevitably happen considering Jones’ (alleged) attitude.  I would think that if the team was going to be good that Southwell would get more minutes, either because he developed some offense or improved his defense.  If I found a lamp and had 3 wishes, one of them would be that Devon will have an incredible off season and be able to somehow run the point in the “new” offense.     

[_33]

I have unrealistically high expectations for Thomas Gipson. FYI.

[Gooch]

The giant pancakes sign in sec 17 wishes this too 'zacher.

[sys]

the minutes add up to more than the total possible amount, but averages for a season generally do because of players missing games or not playing in games, etc.

never understood, and don't like, this method of minute averaging.  dnp for any reason = 0 minutes and should be included in the average.

[Clevey 2 Times]

That's really not too bad of a starting five.  Tournament worthy?

We're tourney bound as a 10ish seed I'd say or possibly playing in that rough ridin' horrible first four debacle.

This team will be a rugged bunch in '12-'13....

[sys]

Combos:
Spradling 31
Jones 2
Irving 5
Rodriguez 17
Lawrence 16

Swing:
McGruder 26
Southwell 7
Williams 10

Forwards:
Samuels 24
JHR 20
Watson 1
Gipson 19
Diaz 6

Walk-ons:
Peterson 10
Ojeleye 4
meyer 0

both jucos leave at the end of the year; the staff recruits two in the fall and takes a third desperation recruit in the spring who leaves in two years if hs and one year if juco.  the new walkon also quits, either during the first couple of weeks of practice, or after the first season.

[Kat Kid]

Combos:
Spradling 31
Jones 2
Irving 5
Rodriguez 17
Lawrence 16

Swing:
McGruder 26
Southwell 7
Williams 10

Forwards:
Samuels 24
JHR 20
Watson 1
Gipson 19
Diaz 6

Walk-ons:
Peterson 10
Ojeleye 4
meyer 0

both jucos leave at the end of the year; the staff recruits two in the fall and takes a third desperation recruit in the spring who leaves in two years if hs and one year if juco.  the new walkon also quits, either during the first couple of weeks of practice, or after the first season.

 

[kso_FAN]

the minutes add up to more than the total possible amount, but averages for a season generally do because of players missing games or not playing in games, etc.

never understood, and don't like, this method of minute averaging.  dnp for any reason = 0 minutes and should be included in the average.

I agree, that's where %MIN (percentage of minutes played) comes in, but again, this does not factor in missed games (for example, Pullen's %MIN last year was 74%, but he actually played 82% of the MIN in the games he suited up and played in.) The total for %MIN of all players always is 500%.


Here is an attempt to do a breakdown based on %MIN.
Rodney McGruder   73%
Will Spradling   65%
Jamar Samuels   61%
Martavious Irving   45%
Jordan Henriquez-Roberts   44%
Shane Southwell   37%
Angel Rodriguez   33%
Thomas Gipson   32%
Jeremy Jones   30%
James Watson   27%
Nino Williams   21%
Devon Peterson   9%
Victor Ojeleye   9%
Adrian Diaz   7%
Omari Lawrence   7%

[Benja]

I have this weird feeling Omari will play more than that.

[kso_FAN]

I have this weird feeling Omari will play more than that.

Could be, my only thought on him is he could be similar to Peterson this year. He has just  been hanging out at Cloud for a year. I would think there would be only so much you could improve by playing against Cloud players, of course he did play in the Big East for a year.

In any case, someone will be on the low end in minutes. My weird feeling is that Jones could actually be pretty decent, maybe even one of the top 3/4 scorers, but who knows.

[Berries and Cream]

I have high hopes for Jones also, but it seems inconsistent with your expectations for Lawrence, particularly given the fact he had offers from major programs.

Regardless, I agree with your wild card. Nino could be really good and no one knows a thing about him other than he has small hands and is prone to concussions.

[Benja]

Also, do you really think Watson will play that much? Between the rumblings that Diaz is progressing faster than the coaches expected and the rumblings that Watson will prob be next years Canada, I might lower Watsons percentage and raise Diaz's a bit.

[sys]

Also, do you really think Watson will play that much? Between the rumblings that Diaz is progressing faster than the coaches expected.

also rumblings that gipson grew an inch & 15 lbs.

[wetwillie]

Also, do you really think Watson will play that much? Between the rumblings that Diaz is progressing faster than the coaches expected.

also rumblings that gipson grew an inch & 15 lbs.

OMG that thing should be called the rough ridin' hammer, looks like we have a new dick flopper for the tunnel!

[kso_FAN]

Also, do you really think Watson will play that much? Between the rumblings that Diaz is progressing faster than the coaches expected and the rumblings that Watson will prob be next years Canada, I might lower Watsons percentage and raise Diaz's a bit.

True, I just think Diaz is still a 6-11/7-0, 200# HS kid and Watson has played BCS level basketball, even if in a minor role. Frank will roll them all out there, and I think at the end of the day Diaz be similar to JHR as a freshman.

I have high hopes for Jones also, but it seems inconsistent with your expectations for Lawrence, particularly given the fact he had offers from major programs.

Regardless, I agree with your wild card. Nino could be really good and no one knows a thing about him other than he has small hands and is prone to concussions.

True, but Jones was playing last year and playing well. Plus it may not mean much, but I like that he's a Chicago guy from a pretty big program. Lawrence could be good, or even better, but I have no idea. I suppose I'm putting too much into his numbers from St Johns.

[catzacker]

re: jones.  I'm trying to remember a juco kid that has flourished under frank.  hell, name one that has made it 2 years (A:  none - Devon has to make it the entire year and he'll be the first JUCO to finish his second year under Frank).

[FranklyFrankYou]

re: jones.  I'm trying to remember a juco kid that has flourished under frank.  hell, name one that has made it 2 years (A:  none - Devon has to make it the entire year and he'll be the first JUCO to finish his second year under Frank).

Blake Young? Frank was AHC first year but still

[kso_FAN]

re: jones.  I'm trying to remember a juco kid that has flourished under frank.  hell, name one that has made it 2 years (A:  none - Devon has to make it the entire year and he'll be the first JUCO to finish his second year under Frank).

This is true, and I've thought about that. But Jones is probably the most talented JUCO guard Frank has brought in, its not like Gilbert or Myles were brought in for anything other than depth. It seems the staff thinks Jones might actually be a scorer though, so that's what I'm basing this all on. Plus, the odds are on Frank's side that he hits on a JUCO that is decent at some point, or at least I would think it would be.

[GoodForAnother]

we'll play great defense and rebound well

20-12 ish type season, bubble team, anything better than that and I'm impressed

IMO

[ChiComCat]

I don't know that Samuels stays out of foul trouble enough to average 25+.  Seems we'll need him in the post more often now and that will lead to potentially worse foul trouble than last year.

I like 95 to play between 10-15 min a game.  I think the lack of anyone who can create or even drive on offense will necessitate that.  I would expect at least a full 40 to be split between him, Rodriguez, and Irving based on this.  Not saying that Irving is great offensively, but he'll play offense with confidence, attack, and hopefully draw a couple fouls.