Utah State Aggies

[kso_FAN]

The Dance is finally here.

 

[EllToPay]

No prediction?

[EllToPay]

_fan, how much of those efficiency numbers do you put into context? If you look at who they played, how much of that can you just throw out the window?

[kso_FAN]

No prediction?

We'll win. I'll give a score eventually.

[catzacker]

_Fan, your thoughts on Ken giving you the middle finger?

[kso_FAN]

_fan, how much of those efficiency numbers do you put into context? If you look at who they played, how much of that can you just throw out the window?

That's a great question, and hard to call. That's where you have to go off what you see, and I watched a couple of their games last night. They do a lot of things really well, but you have to put it into context.

For example, Boise State is a pretty average team, but athletic. They caused Utah State quite a few problems with pressure defense, but would go through stretches of terrible basketball. In both the 1st and 2nd half BSU allowed USU to build double digit leads, then they'd pick up the defense and make a run and cut into the lead. They just didn't have enough to finish and started the game like 0-8 from 3, plus their bigs were pretty average at best.  St Mary's is hard to compare to and it was at their place. I do give USU a lot of credit though, they got behind by 8-9 in the middle of the game, but ended up coming back and won the game pretty comfortably in the last 5 minutes.

[kso_FAN]

_Fan, your thoughts on Ken giving you the middle finger?

Different style, but similar to mid-season Missouri. I give credit where its due; USU does a great job of dominating pretty bad competition, but I don't know how well it translates to playing more talented and especially more athletic teams. Even he admitted their rating might be a bit much today.

I’m not terribly confident about the probabilities for Utah State and Belmont. I’m confident they are seeded undeservingly low, but by how much is very difficult to say. Maybe the NCAA will seriously study situations like these someday and we can remove the scheduling issue from the selection process.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=673

So he basically says what most agree with; they probably deserved better than a 12 seed, but them having a 60% winning probability seems far fetched.

[Trim]

No prediction?

That was just _FAN sticking it to us straighttothebottom'rs.

[SwiftCat]

 


Lets get WILD!

[Stevesie60]

I'm watching the USU vs BSU game right now. It's nearly comical to watch their post players.

[SwiftCat]

I'm watching the @St. Mary's game right now. The crowd makes me feel like I'm watching a high school game. Student section is horrible.

I'm only 5 minutes in, but Tai Wesley has some decent post moves, but I feel like we will do alright against him. Walker III reminds me of 95.

[Stevesie60]

Frank agress with _FAN and says USU is comparable to Nubb.

[SlamSam]

I watched part of the Boise State game and a little of the St. Mary's. They seem like a controlled team. They don't dribble drive often (which imo is a weakness of our foul prone posts) and they don't take risks. I just don't see how any of their players can hang with the likes of our starters and a lot of our bench. We would have to have a very poor shooting night to lose to this team. Our defense is significantly better than the ones I watched them play against. They had some ugly plays vs. really crappy teams. We play tighter, have shot blockers in the paint, and usually at least get a hand in the face of three point shooters. None of their guys are tall or athletic enough to consistently score over a hands- straight-up Kelly or JHR, much less the aggressive versions of them. This game doesn't really frighten me. There's no way they have an answer for Jake. These analysts need to GTFOOF and stop trying to rile up the rest of America with talk of an upset. 

[kso_FAN]

I watched part of the Boise State game and a little of the St. Mary's. They seem like a controlled team. They don't dribble drive often (which imo is a weakness of our foul prone posts) and they don't take risks. I just don't see how any of their players can hang with the likes of our starters and a lot of our bench. We would have to have a very poor shooting night to lose to this team. Our defense is significantly better than the ones I watched them play against. They had some ugly plays vs. really crappy teams. We play tighter, have shot blockers in the paint, and usually at least get a hand in the face of three point shooters. None of their guys are tall or athletic enough to consistently score over a hands- straight-up Kelly or JHR, much less the aggressive versions of them. This game doesn't really frighten me. There's no way they have an answer for Jake. These analysts need to GTFOOF and stop trying to rile up the rest of America with talk of an upset. 

Sometimes our bigs get out of position and that leads to fouls. Wesley is really good at drawing fouls. If that starts to happen, then other bad things can build from there, especially forcing help and opening up their shooters. That is the biggest concern going in; concern b) would be some sort of low 40s eFG% night which this team has shown to be capable of, but watching their defenders I think they will have a hard time guarding Pullen.

[Kstizzle]

Home of the now famous 'I believe' chant: and Wild Bill

[deputy dawg]

Is it a widely-held opinion that opposing coaches scouting us won't notice our vulnerability to the dribble drive?  Having LBBIQ, I'm not sure whether, or how quickly, a team can implement a "dribble drive" strategy in the NCAA tournament.

[kso_FAN]

Is it a widely-held opinion that opposing coaches scouting us won't notice our vulnerability to the dribble drive?  Having LBBIQ, I'm not sure whether, or how quickly, a team can implement a "dribble drive" strategy in the NCAA tournament.

Everyone knows this, its whether or not you have the players to do it effectively. CU is set up better than probably 90% of the teams in the country to do just that, Utah State is not. If they go into the game trying to drive us a lot, they will get beat badly. Their ball handlers are average at best compared to good Big 12 level guards. Pane is a decent player, but he landed at Utah State for a reason.

[SwiftCat]

Offensively were are very similar to K-State, defensively we are much better.

  _FAN, does this guy have any idea what he's talking about?

[Stevesie60]

Offensively were are very similar to K-State, defensively we are much better.

  _FAN, does this guy have any idea what he's talking about?

I think the "were are" makes the answer pretty obvious.

[kso_FAN]

Offensively were are very similar to K-State, defensively we are much better.

  _FAN, does this guy have any idea what he's talking about?

I assume he's talking about kenpom's ratings for them. Offensively we are nearly identical in efficiency; 110.2 for us 110.0 for them. But defensively they are at 88.1 and we are at 91.6. So if you go by that, yeah, he may have a point.

Of course, the average offense in the Big 12 has an efficiency of 109.9. In the WAC the average efficiency is 102.7.  Defensively the average efficiency is 94.6 for the Big 12 and 99.3 for the WAC.

So you are really talking about two very different leagues.

[SlamSam]

Last year I felt like Butler beat us by controlling possessions and pace, they didn't allow us to get into a fast pace game like we were used to (tell me if I'm wrong). This shouldn't be a problem for our Cats this year should it? You said they average lower 60s in average possessions. I assume we are a upper sixty pace (I'm not much of a stats guy, so correct me if I'm wrong). Should we be worried about another team that likes to play a controlled, lower possession game like Utah St? Or does us having a better half court game this year make us less vulnerable to this?

[kso_FAN]

Last year I felt like Butler beat us by controlling possessions and pace, they didn't allow us to get into a fast pace game like we were used to (tell me if I'm wrong). This shouldn't be a problem for our Cats this year should it? You said they average lower 60s in average possessions. I assume we are a upper sixty pace (I'm not much of a stats guy, so correct me if I'm wrong). Should we be worried about another team that likes to play a controlled, lower possession game like Utah St? Or does us having a better half court game this year make us less vulnerable to this?

If Utah State had a Top 10 NBA draft pick like Butler it would be more of a concern.

Again, USU has enough talent and ability to beat us, but IMO it will take a combination of two of the following; a really bad shooting night (low 40s eFG% for us), getting beat on the boards (10% or better advantage on OR%), or allowing USU to get to the FT line a lot (+15% advantage on FT rate) for us to lose this game.

That said, I won't be surprised by a 65-ish possession game with the Cats pulling away down the stretch to win by 7-8 points. In no way am I expecting some sort of 15-20 point comfortable win; there will likely be times where we squirm in this one. As I said, an @NU type of game is what I am anticipating.

[Lynchmobrules]

Can someone direct me to a place to watch these guys?  I must have been looking in the wrong spots on the internet.

[wetwillie]

Can someone direct me to a place to watch these guys?  I must have been looking in the wrong spots on the internet.

Just do a replay of their last few games on espn3.com. 

[Lynchmobrules]

Can someone direct me to a place to watch these guys?  I must have been looking in the wrong spots on the internet.

Just do a replay of their last few games on espn3.com. 

Genius.  I never even thought of that.  Thanks.