Wasn't K-State picked to finish 1st in the Big 12 this season?

Jay Bilas tells you to STFU.
JayBilas Jay Bilas
Not a fan of "exceed expectations" criterion for COY. Just means our expectations were out of whack, doesn't it? We don't do that for POY.
Bilas is talking about exceeding expectations. Frank Martin and K-State definitely haven't exceeded expectations this season.

who should win it, and why?
If KU wins the outright Big 12 title, I'd give it to Bill Self. His team was picked to finish 2nd in the Big 12 this season after losing two NBA lottery picks and an All-American point guard, yet KU is sitting at 27-2 and in position to win a seventh straight conference title. You could also make a strong case for Tad Boyle at Colorado, especially if they finish 9-7 and earn a 1st round bye in the Big 12 tournament.