Some programs aren't fully loaded with elite talent but have still managed to consistently outperform recruiting ratings in recent years. We tallied game results from 2011 to 2013 according to our program recruiting rankings -- which teams won more games against more talented opposition, and which teams fell most frequently despite having a talent edge -- and ignored games in which the talent differential was small to isolate on the biggest overachievers and underachievers.
Here are the five teams that came out on top.
Who are the other four? Should we be looking at any of them as Bill's replacement?
Yes we should try and get any of the coaches as a replacement. Especially 2,what used to be 4, and 5.
2. Baylor
3. Northwestern
4. Wandy
5. Stanford
2. Baylor Bears
Program recruiting rank: 44th / Program FEI rank: 21st
13 wins since 2011 as less talented team
Baylor is on pace to land its first top-25 class this spring, another Big 12 program that has surged to unprecedented success thanks to the consistency and leadership of its head coach, Art Briles. The Bears have made their mark by being exceptionally efficient on offense, ranking among the top five teams in points per drive in each of the past two years and averaging at least 10 yards per play on 28 percent of their possessions in 2013. Baylor scored 52.4 points per game en route to its first 11-win season and first conference title in school history last year.
Gaudy offensive numbers attract star offensive weapons, and Baylor's 2014 class is headlined by four-star wide receiver prospects K.D. Cannon, Davion Hall and Ishmael Zamora. But just as important, Baylor made big strides on defense in 2013 and they are landing more talent on that side of the ball as well. Baylor ranked among the top 20 teams nationally in forcing three-and-outs and limiting available yards last season, key efficiency measures that can keep the Bears as a conference contender even if they fall short on the recruiting trail.
3. Northwestern Wildcats
Program recruiting rank: 65th / Program FEI rank: 48th
11 wins since 2011 as less talented team
The Wildcats had a rough 2013 campaign, losing seven straight games from Oct. 5 to Nov. 23 and failing to reach bowl eligibility. Four of those losses were very close calls and we expect the Wildcats to bounce back a bit next season, especially when we factor in our analysis of recruiting and performance. Northwestern has exceeded expectations under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, ranking alongside Purdue and Indiana at the bottom of the Big Ten in recruiting, but fielding a more competitive conference contender over the years than either of those two programs.
Northwestern's offense is designed to produce yards on the ground from the quarterback position, and one of the Wildcats' 2014 commitments, versatile quarterback Clayton Thorson, has what it takes to fill that role. Injuries sidelined Northwestern's Kain Colter on several occasions in 2013, hampering their efficiency and production. The Wildcats ranked only 80th in avoiding three-and-outs last year after having ranked among the top 25 in that category in three of the previous four seasons.
4. Vanderbilt Commodores
Program recruiting rank: 60th / Program FEI rank: 52nd
11 wins since 2011 as less talented team
James Franklin turned perennial SEC doormat Vanderbilt into a winner (though not a conference contender) before jumping to Penn State this offseason. He left Vandy in a better position than it had been when he arrived, but it remains to be seen if new coach Derek Mason can keep the Commodores climbing. The SEC is loaded with programs that recruit at a level far above Vanderbilt -- seven of the top 10 teams in the RecruitingNation Class Rankings are SEC programs -- so the Commodores have frequent opportunities to face more talented opposition.
Mason has his work cut out for him filling out his first class during the transition, especially with Franklin flipping some recruits from Vanderbilt to Penn State. Mason's success as a defensive coordinator at Stanford could sway a few undecided top recruits, but more likely he'll be starting with less-heralded building blocks. Stanford fielded a top-20 opponent-adjusted defense in each of the past four seasons without landing many defensive superstars, and that's what it will take to keep Vanderbilt from falling back in the years ahead.
5. Stanford Cardinal
Program recruiting rank: 20th / Program FEI rank: 3rd
8 wins since 2011 as less talented team
The Cardinal made our list of recruiting overachievers last season and they are back again with a program that has established itself as one of the best and most consistent over the past five seasons. Stanford has played in a BCS bowl game in four straight seasons, losing only eight total games in that span. Stanford ranks more favorably in recruiting than the other teams on our list, but they have found an edge on the field against the teams that consistently outrecruit them in February. USC, Notre Dame and Oregon all rank ahead of Stanford in our program recruiting analysis, and the Cardinal is 6-3 against those three opponents in the past three seasons.
This past season, Stanford finished second in our FEI ratings and in the ESPN Championship Drive ratings, systems that heavily weight strength of schedule, a hallmark of Stanford's success to date. Future offensive weapons are in the fold for the 2014 recruiting haul, including four-star quarterback Kelly Chryst, and Stanford's defensive profile (No. 1 in opponent-adjusted efficiency in 2013) is in good shape as well, with a strong group of front seven weapons committed as well.
