Can it be done?

[kso_FAN]

Its time to actually take a look at the game; keys based on the 4 factors.

1. Shooting. KU has the best eFG% in the country, sitting at 58.8%. They've actually improved on that to 59% in Big 12 play. They are a very good 3PT shooting team at 39.1%, but also lead the nation in 2PT% at 58.8%. Meanwhile the Cats flounder around at 48.8% for the season and only 47.5% in Big 12 play. In Lawrence the eFG% difference was 66.4% to 39%. K-State doesn't necessarily have to outshoot KU to win, but they must at least stay within 5% on eFG%. If they can do that, they give themselves a chance.  K-State is very unlikely to outshoot KU on 2PTers, so it will likely take a very good 3PT shooting night to get this done, probably around 40% or better as a minimum.

2. Offensive rebounding. K-State's strength is OR% and they must win this category b/c we know they are going to miss some shots. KU is a solid OR% team, but of course they don't have nearly as many opportunities. But both teams end up with over an 8% difference compared to their opponents in Big 12 play, so they end up pretty similar. Against KU in Lawrence OR% ended up being a pretty neutral factor with K-State having a slight edge; but to win in Manhattan they likely need a margin of at least 7-8% over KU in respective OR% for the game.

3. Turnovers. K-State leads the Big 12 in forcing TOs, but b/c we turn the ball over so much ourselves, TO% has been of no advantage overall in Big 12 play. I don't necessarily think we have to gain a huge advantage here, but at least remain neutral compared to KU.

4. FT Rate. K-State has been solid at getting to the FT line, but b/c we foul so much ourselves, the net for FT rate has been the worst in the Big 12, with opponents averaging an 11% higher FT rate than the Cats in Big 12 games.  Again, a huge advantage here isn't necessary, but we must at least stay even with KU to have a chance.  Plus, our frontcourt simply isn't deep enough to afford much foul trouble in this game.

This will be a tough, tough game to win, and kenpom's 20% chance of victory is probably about right.  For NCAA tournament possibilities, this is a desperation game and a win would put the Cats firmly back into bubble discussions. However, I just think the tendencies of too many stretches of bad offense will again catch up the Cats in this one. I believe the game will be much more competitive than the on in Lawrence, but in the end KU's offensive efficiency will be too much to overcome.

Cats 74 - Hawks 83

[CNS]

I would be very happy if we hit 74 pts tonight.  Don't see it happening, but it would be great.

[Stupid Fitz]

The real question is how soon Beems will show up after the game. This is of course assuming KU wins because he won't show up at all if they don't. I am not very optimistic so I will pick 3 min left in the first half.

[Dr Rick Daris]

pretty sure we're going to win.

[rcjh88]

With TRob out if ksu could get the KU bigs in foul trouble it could be interesting.

[kso_FAN]

The eFG% difference in this game is pretty unreal.

KU has only had one game with an eFG% under 50% against Big 12 teams and have 5 games of 60% or better.

K-State has only shot over 50% eFG% twice (both were also over 60%) and has been at 45% or worse 6 times.

The Cats probably have to shoot at least 3-4% above their norm and hold KU to at least 3-4% below their norm to have a chance unless we have a ridiculous night on OR%, TO%, and/or FT rate.

[CNS]

With TRob out if ksu could get the KU bigs in foul trouble it could be interesting.

 

The game will be won or lost by the Vic's of the team.  

[EllToPay]

pretty sure we're going to win.

yeah, me too.

[bigwillie20]

Need to throw the kitchen sink at these bitches tonight

[Dr Rick Daris]

pretty sure we're going to win.

yeah, me too.

let's meet back up over here in 24 hours to celebrate. 

[kougar24]

89-68 KU. We're done. Have been for awhile.

[kso_FAN]

Accuscore:

Game Projection PTS
Kansas 78.9
Kansas St. 72.0

Live Betting Predictions
Point Spread  AccuScore Probability 
Kansas -5 58.5% 
Kansas State +5 39.5% 
Over / Under  AccuScore Probability 
OVR 146 57.5% 
UND 146 40.5% 
Money Line  AccuScore Probability 
Kansas -204 69.8%% 
Kansas State +183 30.2%% 

TEAM WIN % PTS BIG WIN CLOSE WIN
ku 69.8% 78.9 49.2% 9.3%
ksu 30.2% 72 14.1% 8.9%

Big Win is by 10 or more pts; Close Win is by 4 or less pts.

AccuScore simulated this game over 10,000 timesKansasKansas St.69.8%30.2%

Kansas
Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK
Marcus Morris 17.2 6.0 11.4 52% 4.5 6.8 0.7 2.1 1.6 0.7 1.7 3.0 7.7 0.2
Markieff Morris 11.8 4.3 8.2 52% 2.6 4.0 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.7 1.8 2.8 8.5 0.6
Josh Selby 11.4 3.9 9.8 39% 1.8 2.2 1.9 4.6 3.3 0.7 2.8 0.4 2.7 0.0
Tyrel Reed 10.0 3.0 7.8 38% 1.9 2.4 2.1 5.7 2.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 3.1 0.1
Tyshawn Taylor 8.1 2.8 7.0 40% 2.1 2.8 0.4 1.5 4.1 0.8 2.0 0.6 2.4 0.1
Brady Morningstar 6.8 2.5 5.6 44% 0.8 1.1 1.1 3.0 3.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 2.3 0.1
Mario Little 6.1 2.4 4.8 49% 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.1 2.9 0.2
Travis Releford 3.3 1.2 2.5 47% 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.0
Elijah Johnson 2.4 0.9 2.2 40% 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.0
Jeff Withey 1.7 0.6 1.1 57% 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.3
KS Benchwarmers 0.3 0.1 0.4 27% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1
TOTAL 78.9 27.6 60.8 45% 15.8 22.6 8.0 22.1 18.9 7.0 12.0 10.9 33.5 1.9
 
Kansas St.
Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK
Jacob Pullen 18.7 5.7 12.9 44% 4.9 6.6 2.5 6.3 4.0 1.3 3.5 0.5 3.1 0.1
Rodney McGruder 11.2 3.9 8.0 48% 1.3 2.0 2.2 4.8 1.8 0.5 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.2
Jamar Samuels 8.6 2.8 6.2 46% 2.5 3.9 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 1.6 1.7 4.9 0.4
Curtis Kelly 8.0 3.2 5.6 57% 1.6 3.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.7 2.2 1.6 4.7 0.8
Will Spradling 6.3 1.9 4.2 47% 1.3 1.4 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.5 1.3 0.3 1.2 0.0
KSST Benchwarmers 5.7 2.2 4.0 55% 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.1
Nick Russell 4.0 1.4 3.2 43% 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.1
Martavious Irving 3.7 1.4 3.1 43% 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.0
Jordan Henriquez-Roberts 3.2 1.2 2.6 45% 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.1 3.4 0.6
Shane Southwell 2.5 1.1 2.9 37% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.5 1.8 0.6 2.4 0.5
TOTAL 72.0 24.7 52.7 47% 14.6 21.8 8.0 19.4 14.2 5.2 15.7 8.0 29.7 2.8
 

[KITNfury]

I've said for most of the season that we can hang with or beat any team in the country if we're shooting decent. Problem is, we rarely ever do. I give us less than a 20% chance to win. I really have no hope. Since I don't, I suspect we'll play well and take a lead in the second half only to lose by 20 by the end of 40.

[Mikeyis4dcats]

Accuscore:

Game Projection PTS
Kansas 78.9
Kansas St. 72.0

Live Betting Predictions
Point Spread  AccuScore Probability 
Kansas -5 58.5% 
Kansas State +5 39.5% 
Over / Under  AccuScore Probability 
OVR 146 57.5% 
UND 146 40.5% 
Money Line  AccuScore Probability 
Kansas -204 69.8%% 
Kansas State +183 30.2%% 

TEAM WIN % PTS BIG WIN CLOSE WIN
ku 69.8% 78.9 49.2% 9.3%
ksu 30.2% 72 14.1% 8.9%

Big Win is by 10 or more pts; Close Win is by 4 or less pts.

AccuScore simulated this game over 10,000 timesKansasKansas St.69.8%30.2%

Kansas
Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK
Marcus Morris 17.2 6.0 11.4 52% 4.5 6.8 0.7 2.1 1.6 0.7 1.7 3.0 7.7 0.2
Markieff Morris 11.8 4.3 8.2 52% 2.6 4.0 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.7 1.8 2.8 8.5 0.6
Josh Selby 11.4 3.9 9.8 39% 1.8 2.2 1.9 4.6 3.3 0.7 2.8 0.4 2.7 0.0
Tyrel Reed 10.0 3.0 7.8 38% 1.9 2.4 2.1 5.7 2.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 3.1 0.1
Tyshawn Taylor 8.1 2.8 7.0 40% 2.1 2.8 0.4 1.5 4.1 0.8 2.0 0.6 2.4 0.1
Brady Morningstar 6.8 2.5 5.6 44% 0.8 1.1 1.1 3.0 3.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 2.3 0.1
Mario Little 6.1 2.4 4.8 49% 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.1 2.9 0.2
Travis Releford 3.3 1.2 2.5 47% 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.0
Elijah Johnson 2.4 0.9 2.2 40% 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.0
Jeff Withey 1.7 0.6 1.1 57% 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.3
KS Benchwarmers 0.3 0.1 0.4 27% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1
TOTAL 78.9 27.6 60.8 45% 15.8 22.6 8.0 22.1 18.9 7.0 12.0 10.9 33.5 1.9
 
Kansas St.
Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK
Jacob Pullen 18.7 5.7 12.9 44% 4.9 6.6 2.5 6.3 4.0 1.3 3.5 0.5 3.1 0.1
Rodney McGruder 11.2 3.9 8.0 48% 1.3 2.0 2.2 4.8 1.8 0.5 2.0 1.5 5.9 0.2
Jamar Samuels 8.6 2.8 6.2 46% 2.5 3.9 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 1.6 1.7 4.9 0.4
Curtis Kelly 8.0 3.2 5.6 57% 1.6 3.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.7 2.2 1.6 4.7 0.8
Will Spradling 6.3 1.9 4.2 47% 1.3 1.4 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.5 1.3 0.3 1.2 0.0
KSST Benchwarmers 5.7 2.2 4.0 55% 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.1
Nick Russell 4.0 1.4 3.2 43% 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.1
Martavious Irving 3.7 1.4 3.1 43% 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.0
Jordan Henriquez-Roberts 3.2 1.2 2.6 45% 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.1 3.4 0.6
Shane Southwell 2.5 1.1 2.9 37% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.5 1.8 0.6 2.4 0.5
TOTAL 72.0 24.7 52.7 47% 14.6 21.8 8.0 19.4 14.2 5.2 15.7 8.0 29.7 2.8
 

so without Selby's 11.4pts, we WIN!   YAY!   

[nicname]

69.8%  30.2%   

[KSUTOMMY]

We will be down by 20 when Massa has his team remove the boot heel from out throats - end, we will lose by 8-10 pts.  

[bigwillie20]

Start Potz and have him cheap shot 1 of the thug twins to get him ejected after he retaliates by pulling a gun out of his shoe

[CNS]

Start Potz and have him cheap shot 1 of the thug twins to get him ejected after he retaliates by pulling a gun out of his shoe

Potz doesn't know how to cheap shot.  Kid looks too clean

[EMAWzified]

Cats turnovers have fallen off big time in recent games.

[bigwillie20]

Start Potz and have him cheap shot 1 of the thug twins to get him ejected after he retaliates by pulling a gun out of his shoe

Potz doesn't know how to cheap shot.  Kid looks too clean

Should allow him to pull this off undetected

[JHawkinColorado]

I consider our rivalry to be somewhat friendly.  Especially if you guys agree to hate and beat the crap out of Missery.   

That said, you guys need this win badly tonight.  I hope you play great and get into the Tourney.  A good showing in the tourney does both of our schools, the state, and future league better. 

However, we're on a roll lately.   I don't see it happening unless you can get both twins in foul trouble. 

[OregonSmock]

Just put $50 on the 'Hawks. 


Kansas - 82

K-State - 67

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

We need to implement a strategy of running our faces into the twins elbows (forcing numerous reviews and intentional flagrant non-technical foul calls).  We will win if they don't get to play.  It's easier to beat them when they're white boys are shooting uncontested tre's.


Also, Tyshawn Taylor sucks at basketball

[OregonSmock]

We need to implement a strategy of running our faces into the twins elbows (forcing numerous reviews and intentional flagrant non-technical foul calls).  We will win if they don't get to play.  It's easier to beat them when they're white boys are shooting uncontested tre's.


Also, Tyshawn Taylor sucks at basketball

 

[CNS]

The Jamar factor.

What happens if one of the Morris guys tries to pull their crap on Jamar?   

Will be fantastic.