Mainstream Economics Thread

[sonofdaxjones]

Imagine being such a derp that you think the market will always go up.

It’s like you didn’t pay any attention at all when the market dropped 30% give or take in the middle of Pedo Pete’s presidency.

Damn - thought K-State people were smarter than that. #frown


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SleepFighter]

Markets are still down significantly from the first announcement of Canadian and Mexican tariffs. The most optimistic GDP predictions show large slowdowns. The bond market still looks fragile in a frightening way. Some layoffs have started to be announced.

It would be fantastic if all of the doom and gloom turns out to be over hyped, But right now things do not look good.

[sonofdaxjones]

GDP will shrink because government spending is down.

(insert the terrabytes of video of wall street titans warning people over the years that if you don't have the stomach for the market going down - you don't belong in the market here)

[SleepFighter]

 Government spending is up.

[sonofdaxjones]

"the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports." . . . BEA

[Rage Against the McKee]

Spending is on pace to be about a trillion dollars more than last year.

[SleepFighter]

So I learned something. The BEA report ignores transfer payments. So while total government outlays are up, "real government consumption expenditures" are indeed down.

Having said that, imports ahead of the tariffs were the first thing mentioned in the report for a reason. And beyond that, the future doesn't look good.

[Cire]

Spending is on pace to be about a trillion dollars more than last year.

Wait until the farmers get bailed out

[sonofdaxjones]

So I learned something. The BEA report ignores transfer payments. So while total government outlays are up, "real government consumption expenditures" are indeed down.

Having said that, imports ahead of the tariffs were the first thing mentioned in the report for a reason. And beyond that, the future doesn't look good.

The government has historically ignored transfer payments: See also - Bill Clinton "balanced the budget".

But I do agree - we avoided a lot of pain under the previous administration via a lot of: Gaslighting, lying, government spending and kicking the can down the road.

For those keeping score at home,  Federal Fiscal Year '26 started approximately 4 months before Don Trump took office and during the 1st qtr of FFY '26 the US Government set a record pace of borrowing in a single Federal quarter . . . and now we've got yet another debt limit debate going on.

We also had an all time record monthly trade deficit in the last month of the 1st qtr of FFY '26. 

[LickNeckey]

liberation day had nothing to do with this it was all Bidens fault obvs

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5274695-trump-biden-stock-market-tariffs/

[sonofdaxjones]

I'll translate Lick for viewers of this blog - (Beep -Bop - Boop LickDecryptor):  I just want my political leaders to talk about bad trade deals and trade deficits for the next 40 years and not do anything about it . . . just like they did for the previous 30 to 40 years in order to get votes

['taterblast]

"the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports." . . . BEA

perhaps a decrease in the rate of increase of government spending? where is the data proving spending was down q1 2025 vs any prior period?

[sonofdaxjones]

"the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports." . . . BEA

perhaps a decrease in the rate of increase of government spending? where is the data proving spending was down q1 2025 vs any prior period?

You'll have to go ask the Bureau of Economic Advisors/Analysis

[SleepFighter]

Long story short, the government bought less stuff in an inflation-adjusted measure in Q1. This is what is used in the GDP calculation.

But, total government outlays (including debt service, entitlement payments and some other stuff) are up significantly year over year.

It turns out both are true.

['taterblast]

Long story short, the government bought less stuff in an inflation-adjusted measure in Q1. This is what is used in the GDP calculation.

But, total government outlays (including debt service, entitlement payments and some other stuff) are up significantly year over year.

It turns out both are true.

thank you, was trying to square up the different reports i was finding

[sonofdaxjones]

So now you guys are going to start nitpicking this process that has existed forever?   

Meanwhile (for example) we know the jobs numbers were french fried beyond recognition during the previous administration and that's acceptable and explainable  (note to viewers . . . french fried by a different economic review/oversight entity)

['taterblast]

nitpicking this process

link? i asked for clarification on the math being presented. good for Trump getting inflation-adjusted government consumption expenditures and gross investment down in Q1 2025! if they stay down the next four quarters he'll match the start of Biden's term, which is great!

[Sandstone Outcropping]

STOP THE DECADENT DOLLS!!!!



https://x.com/Acyn/status/1917634492539494557

[steve dave]

Markets are creeping back up, looks like S&P 500 is back to where it was on so called Liberation Day.

Him caving on tariffs is priced in. He better fuckin' do it.

[sonofdaxjones]

Despite it being the end of the world and America crumbling . . . NASDAQ finishes April up.

Dow shrugs off economic news, up today.

Was there this much melting down when the market dropped on average 30% across the board in the middle of what should have been a post Covid recovery colossus? 

Oh wait a Dem puppet boy was POTUS and the market was not the economy back then. 

[Dugout DickStone]

Markets are creeping back up, looks like S&P 500 is back to where it was on so called Liberation Day.

Him caving on tariffs is priced in. He better fuckin' do it.

precisely.  If china weren't so intent on making a bitch of trump they could toss him a hollow (fake) victory and we could all move on.  They seem to enjoy him look like an impotent loudmouth - at least for now

[wetwillie]

Markets are creeping back up, looks like S&P 500 is back to where it was on so called Liberation Day.

Him caving on tariffs is priced in. He better fuckin' do it.

I get the sense Scotty B is settling in as one of the more trusted cabinet members and he's probably the closest thing to an adult in the room that we have.

[Stupid Fitz]

Markets are creeping back up, looks like S&P 500 is back to where it was on so called Liberation Day.

Him caving on tariffs is priced in. He better fuckin' do it.

I get the sense Scotty B is settling in as one of the more trusted cabinet members and he's probably the closest thing to an adult in the room that we have.

So he will be out in less than 6 month then?

[sonofdaxjones]

Interest in the Federal debt declined for the first time since Trump 1.0




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[steve dave]

https://x.com/acyn/status/1917631805953565094?s=46


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk