Now that we're 33 days from Selection Sunday, the opportunities for teams to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament are growing scarce. For many squads, that means there are just one or two more chances to make a positive impression on the selection committee.
As we pointed out here last year, signature wins -- those over opponents in the RPI top 25 -- are a common factor among bubble teams that make the tournament. Last season, three of the committee's last four tourney selections nabbed at least one top-25 victory. (Of that quartet, only the UTEP Miners sneaked in without one.) In the past five years, just three of 20 "last four ins" didn't have a signature W.
The bubble is littered with teams that have wilted against marquee competition this season. But the teams listed below still have a chance -- and in some cases, several -- to turn heads as the regular season enters its final month.
Last chances
Several bubble teams have the opportunities to earn an at-large berth through victories during the next few weeks. (Note: RPI numbers listed in parentheses.)
RPI Team Record SOS vs. 1-25 Remaining top-25 games
31 Kansas State 15-8 16 0-3 Kansas (2); at Texas (7)
45 Oklahoma State 16-7 61 0-1 at Texas (7); at Kansas (2)
47 Colorado State 15-7 46 0-3 at BYU (1); at SDSU (4)
68 Virginia Tech 15-7 82 0-2 Duke (8)
69 Penn State 12-10 6 0-3 Minnesota (23); at Wisconsin (20); Ohio State (3); at Minnesota (23)
70 Washington State 16-7 102 0-1 at Arizona (16)
With 10 losses, the Penn State Nittany Lions are a bit of an outlier in this group. It's interesting to note that two of their top-25 losses, to the Ohio State Buckeyes (RPI of 3) and the Purdue Boilermakers (RPI of 11), were one-possession games. But because of the strength of this season's Big Ten, Talor Battle and friends have twice as many big games left as the other teams on the list.
Perhaps the most intriguing teams, though, are the Kansas State Wildcats and those perennial bubble dwellers, the Virginia Tech Hokies. The two teams faced off on Nov. 16; K-State's 73-57 home win is still its highest-ranked victory of the season. Although Jacob Pullen famously vowed to boycott the NIT should the Wildcats not make the tournament, he'll have his hands full down the stretch if he wants another crack at the NCAAs. And despite all of Seth Greenberg's complaints about barely missing the tourney the past three seasons, his Hokies may have a hard time getting in without a home win over the Duke Blue Devils on Feb. 26 and/or a run in the ACC tournament.
Not everyone, though, will have a chance to rebound from early losses. (This is the point where fans of some bubble teams will look at their remaining schedules and shake their heads.) Josh Pastner's Memphis Tigers (RPI of 46), for example, are in a precarious position: They're 0-3 against top-25 competition, and they have no more games remaining against such teams. Last season, Memphis had an identical mark against top-25 foes ... and eventually headed off to the NIT.
