Author Topic: kenpomish #s for the game.  (Read 1671 times)

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Offline kso_FAN

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kenpomish #s for the game.
« on: January 29, 2011, 10:50:10 PM »
Attempting to run the kenpom #s myself.

Possessions: 74

Points per possession: KU 1.22, KSU .89

eFG%: KU 66.4%, KSU 39.0%

TO%: KU 18.9%, KSU 21.6%

OR%: KU 37.5%, KSU 39.6%

FT Rate: KU 49.1%, KSU 29.4%

Pretty easy to see why this was a blow-out, especially with a 27%+ differencial in eFG%. I thought before the game we'd need 20 FTAs, 15 ORBs, and 35% on 3 with 7-8 makes to stand a chance. ORBs were good, but we had an incredible 68 FGAs. Any decent rebounding team that has that many attempts and only makes 23 shots is going to have plenty of ORBs. FT Rate was big too, at the half KU was over 81% for FT rate, and by then the game was pretty much over.

We've known all year this K-State team struggles to score, but tonight we took it to new heights. 68 shot attempts is a lot, but offensively we were actually really similar to the game we played against KU in the Big 12 Tournament. We just didn't play any defense; you aren't going to win many games when you allow an opponent to have an eFG% of 65 or higher.


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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2019, 09:49:44 PM »
Man, kenpom hates the crap out of this team.

Offline pissclams

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2019, 11:02:36 PM »
I was so confused


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

New warning: Don't get in a fight with someone who doesn't even need to bother to buy ink.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2019, 11:05:06 PM »
Yeah weird thread to bump

Offline dal9

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2019, 12:52:46 AM »

Offline stunted

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2019, 01:46:52 AM »
How the hell is Saint Mary's ahead of us? That alone discredits kendumb

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2019, 04:22:10 AM »
Yeah weird thread to bump

Which of the other 600 kenpom threads should I have bumped? But seriously looks like we improved 6 spots after all the Tuesday night games were completed. Offensive efficiency has improved 150 spots in the last couple of weeks.

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2019, 05:58:21 PM »
Man, kenpom hates the crap out of this team.

i'm trying to pinpoint the reason and i can't figure it out. it's not preseason bias; he had us at #15 to start the year.

dropped from #28 to #48 after the 3-game stretch of beating then-#164 george mason by 1 point at home, losing to Texas by 20 at home, and losing to TTU on the road.

the weird thing is after the next 2 games (beating then-#57 WVU at home, then defeating then-#11 ISU on the road), we dropped four more spots to #52  :confused:

after winning all 3 of the next games by double digits vs good opponents (@ #21, vs #19, and vs #10), we only rose to #35

i was going to guess that our numbers indicate we should be losing these games, and have just gotten lucky. however, our "Luck" is only 46th highest in kenpom (for comparison, KU is 36th luckiest, and kenpom still has them at #9)


here are some overall (offense / defense) and SOS comparos with other rating sites:

kenpom: #35 (#172 / #4), #29 SOS
massey: #19 (#214 / #3), #24 SOS

other ratings:

sagarin: #31, #27 SOS
RPI: #9, #12 SOS
ESPN BPI: #38, #35 SOS

 :dunno:

Offline wetwillie

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2019, 06:11:05 PM »
So we have the 174th best offense and 4th best defense? We probably broke his model.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2019, 06:14:35 PM »
i mean there's no way a team with the 174th best offense playing the 29th most difficult schedule should be 15-4 UNLESS they were like the #1 luckiest team

Offline Trim

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2019, 06:58:50 PM »
Man, kenpom hates the crap out of this team.

i'm trying to pinpoint the reason and i can't figure it out.

Maybe his computer became self-aware.

Offline WackyCat08

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2019, 07:17:34 PM »
 :facepalm:

Offline stunted

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2019, 08:06:15 PM »
i wonder what our offense ranking would be with the better offensive strategy + wade. gotta be top 50 at least, we were 78 last year. that should put us top 15 overall.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2019, 09:33:52 PM »
Man, kenpom hates the crap out of this team.

i'm trying to pinpoint the reason and i can't figure it out.

Maybe his computer became self-aware.

I appreciated this post.

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2019, 09:43:35 PM »
Man, kenpom hates the crap out of this team.

i'm trying to pinpoint the reason and i can't figure it out.

Maybe his computer became self-aware.
Ex Frankina

Offline Trim

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2019, 10:03:20 PM »
Confession: I was strangely blanking on that exact term and had to pull up The Terminator on wikipedia.

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2019, 01:34:27 PM »
got passed by Wofford (?) today  :lol:

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2019, 02:12:56 PM »
The offense has been really bad most of the year. Raw efficiency is 0.98 which is @274, so we get a substantial bump in the adjusted ratings. For whatever reason we've been really bad on 2s after being pretty good on 2s the last couple of years. And we're really bad on 3s, 4th worst K-State team ever. However, 2PT% seems to be picking up and we finally overcame that terrible Texas loss. It took us 5 straight wins including 3 straight by double digits to get a + efficiency differential in Big 12 play. We're definitely playing better than our kenpom (or NET or any other system that incorporates efficiency/scoring), but we've also earned those bad marks.

FWIW, we are #47 in kenpom's luck, which is 2nd to only KU in the Big 12.

Offline Steffy08

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2019, 09:42:14 AM »
We've won lots of close games, many against mediocre opponents.  We haven't had games where we have blown teams out by 35.  And we went through a stretch without Claws where we really struggled.  (Losing to UT at home by 20.)

We also have a very low ranking in the NCAA NET.

I prefer, however, to go on what I see with my eyes (and what Chris Beard said after Tuesday).

Also, LOL on oscar manipulating our schedule to do better in the RPI.  Mission accomplished......top 10 in that one.  Too bad the NCAA decided to change from RPI to NET this year.   :frown:

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2019, 09:47:26 AM »
another factor is that just glancing at W-L records, it looks like there are a lot of *pretty good* teams ranked above us

Offline chum1

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2019, 09:56:42 AM »
another factor is that just glancing at W-L records, it looks like there are a lot of *pretty good* teams ranked above us

Well, mid-season rankings are important to people like jrake.

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2019, 02:04:20 PM »
update:

kenpom #31 (#144 off / #6 def), #30 sos
massey #23 (#193 off / #3 def), #28 sos

net      #28
rpi       #13 (#26 sos)
sagarin #27 (#25 sos)


maybe we have just been really lucky

Offline wetwillie

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #22 on: February 10, 2019, 02:07:43 PM »
update:

kenpom #31 (#144 off / #6 def), #30 sos
massey #23 (#193 off / #3 def), #28 sos

net      #28
rpi       #13 (#26 sos)
sagarin #27 (#25 sos)


maybe we have just been really lucky

Delete this post before the sour grapes put you in the DUD thread
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpomish #s for the game.
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2019, 02:15:22 PM »
update:

kenpom #31 (#144 off / #6 def), #30 sos
massey #23 (#193 off / #3 def), #28 sos

net      #28
rpi       #13 (#26 sos)
sagarin #27 (#25 sos)


maybe we have just been really lucky

Delete this post before the sour grapes put you in the DUD thread

i've always said the rpi is the best way to measure a team's quality, and i think my post only reinforces that