Importance of NCAA Tourney seeding

[ClayKat]

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaa-tournament-odds-a-seed-advancing-166169

Damn thing doesn't cut and paste correctly so here's the link.  It appears that we have almost double the chance of making it to E8 as a 2 seed than a 3 seed.  The amazing (and most relevant, imo) is that you have almost 4 times the chance of making it to the Finals as a #1 vs. #3 and three times as high as a #2.  I would've never guessed there was that big of a difference between the 1's and 2's.

I think this little chart should be posted up on the wall of the locker room to help give the dobes any additional motivation to go out there an kick ku's ass and at least make it to the Finals of the B12T in order to have a shot at the #1 seed.

[sys]

good link, stupid post.

[mcmwcat]

dobbie this guy is talking crap on you.  are you going to punch him in the face?

[yosh]

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaa-tournament-odds-a-seed-advancing-166169

Damn thing doesn't cut and paste correctly so here's the link.  It appears that we have almost double the chance of making it to E8 as a 2 seed than a 3 seed.  The amazing (and most relevant, imo) is that you have almost 4 times the chance of making it to the Finals as a #1 vs. #3 and three times as high as a #2.  I would've never guessed there was that big of a difference between the 1's and 2's.

I think this little chart should be posted up on the wall of the locker room to help give the dobes any additional motivation to go out there an kick ku's ass and at least make it to the Finals of the B12T in order to have a shot at the #1 seed.

Says more about the separation in how good the ones are more than it does about how seeding matters.  Case in point: we're currently a 2 seed, but we have next to zero shot at making a one seed.  The ones are pretty much decided with a month left before selection Sunday.  I don't think a typo flip-flopping our seeding with KUs would give us 3 times likely a shot to make the final four.

In other  words: the ones are just the best teams (duh)

[sys]

yosh!   

[kso_FAN]

Says more about the separation in how good the ones are more than it does about how seeding matters.  Case in point: we're currently a 2 seed, but we have next to zero shot at making a one seed.  The ones are pretty much decided with a month left before selection Sunday.  I don't think a typo flip-flopping our seeding with KUs would give us 3 times likely a shot to make the final four.

In other  words: the ones are just the best teams (duh)

All very true.  I will say I was a bit surprised by the comparison between 2 and 3 seeds.  Being a 2 more than doubles your shot at the Sweet 16; I didn't anticipate it being that much of a difference.

[sys]

All very true.  I will say I was a bit surprised by the comparison between 2 and 3 seeds.  Being a 2 more than doubles your shot at the Sweet 16; I didn't anticipate it being that much of a difference.

yeah, that was surprising.

[ClayKat]

Says more about the separation in how good the ones are more than it does about how seeding matters.  Case in point: we're currently a 2 seed, but we have next to zero shot at making a one seed.  The ones are pretty much decided with a month left before selection Sunday.  I don't think a typo flip-flopping our seeding with KUs would give us 3 times likely a shot to make the final four.

In other  words: the ones are just the best teams (duh)

All very true.  I will say I was a bit surprised by the comparison between 2 and 3 seeds.  Being a 2 more than doubles your shot at the Sweet 16; I didn't anticipate it being that much of a difference.

Yeah, I think that was the similar point I was making in expressing surprise at the 3x increased chance of a #1 making the Finals compared to a #2.

It seems pretty typical that there is a lot of discussion regarding the positioning of the last 1 or 2 #1 seeds vs. the top 1 or 2 #2's.  It is extremely rare that all of the #1's are pretty much decided a month out.

[sys]

It seems pretty typical that there is a lot of discussion regarding the positioning of the last 1 or 2 #1 seeds vs. the top 1 or 2 #2's.  It is extremely rare that all of the #1's are pretty much decided a month out.

but even so, that leaves 2-3 one seeds that are seen as clearly superior to 2-3 two seeds.

[ClayKat]

All very true.  I will say I was a bit surprised by the comparison between 2 and 3 seeds.  Being a 2 more than doubles your shot at the Sweet 16; I didn't anticipate it being that much of a difference.

yeah, that was surprising.

jfc, sys, seriously - that was the primary point of why i pasted the fracking link, except I said it about the diff between 2 & 3 in the E8.  The second paragraph was just frivolous crap I wrote to amplify the importance of being a 1 seed if you are trying to make it to the Finals.

Just because someone doesn't jerk off to the message board by posting as much as you doesn't mean that they can't use weak metaphorical frivolity to illustrate a second point without needing a dumbass retort from you about the quality of any post.

 

[pissclams]

i read a report about a retort!

[ClayKat]

i read a report about a retort!

I'm sorry, did I break your concentration? I didn't mean to do that. Please, continue, you were saying something about best intentions. What's the matter? Oh, you were finished! Well, allow me to retort. What does Marsellus Wallace look like?   

[sys]

jfc, sys, seriously - that was the primary point of why i pasted the fracking link, except I said it about the diff between 2 & 3 in the E8.  The second paragraph was just frivolous crap I wrote to amplify the importance of being a 1 seed if you are trying to make it to the Finals.

Just because someone doesn't jerk off to the message board by posting as much as you doesn't mean that they can't use weak metaphorical frivolity to illustrate a second point without needing a dumbass retort from you about the quality of any post.

 

i didn't like your casual use of "dobes".  nothing personal.  

[mcmwcat]

Being a 2 more than doubles your shot at the Sweet 16;

yeah, that was surprising.

i don't think that's what it's saying if you click thru to this

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaa-tournament-historical-success-seed-166168 <- the percentages come from the winning percentage in each round

if i'm doing it right #3 seeds have 50% chance to make it to sweet 16 while #2 seed have 62.5% chance

unless _fan meant double the chances at winning the sweet 16 game if you reach it

[chum1]

I'm sorry, did I break your concentration? I didn't mean to do that. Please, continue, you were saying something about best intentions. What's the matter? Oh, you were finished! Well, allow me to retort. What does Marsellus Wallace look like?   

You should probably just go away now.

[mcmwcat]

Being a 2 more than doubles your shot at the Sweet 16;

yeah, that was surprising.

i don't think that's what it's saying if you click thru to this

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaa-tournament-historical-success-seed-166168 <- the percentages come from the winning percentage in each round

if i'm doing it right #3 seeds have 50% chance to make it to sweet 16 while #2 seed have 62.5% chance

unless _fan meant double the chances at winning the sweet 16 game if you reach it

48/96 #3 seeds and 60/96 #2 seeds have made it thru to the sweet 16

[kso_FAN]

Being a 2 more than doubles your shot at the Sweet 16;

yeah, that was surprising.

i don't think that's what it's saying if you click thru to this

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/ncaa-tournament-historical-success-seed-166168 <- the percentages come from the winning percentage in each round

if i'm doing it right #3 seeds have 50% chance to make it to sweet 16 while #2 seed have 62.5% chance

unless _fan meant double the chances at winning the sweet 16 game if you reach it

48/96 #3 seeds and 60/96 #2 seeds have made it thru to the sweet 16

I looked at it wrong.   

Probably more accurate to say nearly twice as many 2-seeds have made the Elite 8 compared to 3-seeds.  And nearly twice as many made the Final 4 compared to 3-seeds.  But not much of a difference in making the finals or winning the NC. 

Still much better chances to make the S16 as a 2-seed compared to a 3-seed. 

[Andy]

better teams go further, got it.

[Bookcat]

look at the 10 seed making the Sweet Sixteen.


This chart is saying that if we can't land the #5 seed...then its best to fall to #10...cuz you have a better shot at making the Sweet Sixteen.