Man, we're so close

[kso_FAN]

How did Charlotte beat Michigan?

Michigan had their worst OEff/shooting game of the season.

[Panjandrum]

People hate oscar. He's a dorky guy with lots of weird quirks and was a questionable hire. Losing the first round game last year was terrible and a wasted opportunity with a decent seed. This year has been a roller coaster. I get it.

However, when I look at the state of the program I don't think we're in trouble. The trajectory based on my expectations when oscar was hired is a positive one, IMHO. My hope for this team was to be in the tornament and not the NIT and we are in. This team toyed with finishing 2nd in the league and had plenty of frustrating losses, but in a major year of transition for this program I can live with that. Here are my two main reasons for having a somewhat positive outlook.

First, we have a 2nd team all league player coming back who will probably be 1st team all league going into next year. We have other candidates that should have a shot at 3rd/2nd team next year, especially Gipson, but I'd give a shot to Westicles with good development. Edwards could be an all newcomer team player and maybe Hurt. I don't think the talent level is dropping, though I want to see recruiting improve to the point that we land more Top 150 level players. Foster was a lucky break, but that happens. He can be oscar's Pullen; ie. a guy that performs better than his recruiting ranking that can be the face of the program for 3 more seasons. Westicles, Johnson, Thomas, Johnson, Edwards, Bolden, Hurt etc. must develop with him and at least a couple must become 2nd/3rd team level over the next several seasons. Recruiting is my biggest question mark right now long term, but I think we have the talent to be upper half Big 12/NCAA tournament every year for the next several seasons.

Second, we've beat good teams this year and its the reason we're not really even a bubble team. We've got 7 wins over Top 50 teams (kenpom) and 11 vs the Top 100. Only Frank's teams from Jake's JR/SR seasons did better than that since Huggins got here. (Wooly had 10 Top 50 wins in 6 seasons, so that comparison is laughable.) The 2 terrible losses to UNC and Charlotte early in the year likely dropped us at least one seed and that's disappointing no matter how much we lost from last year's team. However, the team recovered nicely, still got some nice OOC wins, and won some nice games in the Big 12 with wins over teams that will likely be seeded 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, and 10 in the NCAA tournament. You can't win tournament games (which is the ultimate goal in college basketball) if you don't prove you can beat good teams and this team did that, even if it wasn't quite as consistent as I would like.

 

I guess I had two real expectations this year, and that was to make the tournament and finish in the top half of the Big 12.  We accomplished both, so I'm content.  Happy?  No, not really.  But content.

My expectations are going to increase next year, so for me to feel content, oscar is going to have to show me more.

But I guess I won't be really pissed until my expectations won't be met in consecutive years.

Maybe my expectations are lower than most other people's, though.  I don't know.

[kso_FAN]

I guess I had two real expectations this year, and that was to make the tournament and finish in the top half of the Big 12.  We accomplished both, so I'm content.  Happy?  No, not really.  But content.

My expectations are going to increase next year, so for me to feel content, oscar is going to have to show me more.

But I guess I won't be really pissed until my expectations won't be met in consecutive years.

Maybe my expectations are lower than most other people's, though.  I don't know.

Last year oscar lost a 1st team and 2nd team player. Our best returner was Southwell who was HM from the coaches.

Next year he returns a 2nd team and HM player and the worst loss is an HM player.

The expectations for next year should be higher and they will be. My initial thought for next year is 12 to 13 Big 12 wins and a 6 seed.

[Stevesie60]

We had a Big 12 Second Teamer on our team last year too, and oscar couldn't convince him to stay. If either Edwards or Hurt are anywhere near the hype, we should expect a 5 seed or higher. I know seeds aren't directly correlated with rankings, but I would expect us to be in the top 20 throughout the course of the year next year. I mean, oh my God we're going to have an actual big man! Two, actually!

[sys]

my expectations for next year are about the same as this year (what this year turned out to be, not what my preseason expecto was).  outside of foster and gipson i see a lot of question marks.  some should work out, but some probably won't.

[Mixed-Nutz]

my expectations for next year are about the same as this year (what this year turned out to be, not what my preseason expecto was).  outside of foster and gipson i see a lot of question marks.  some should work out, but some probably won't.

We have a ton of potential answer for the holes in roster. We have less holes going in to next year then we had this year. People need to get on the Edwards train.

[Boondock Poonhound]

my expectations for next year are about the same as this year (what this year turned out to be, not what my preseason expecto was).  outside of foster and gipson i see a lot of question marks.  some should work out, but some probably won't.

We have a ton of potential answer for the holes in roster. We have less holes going in to next year then we had this year. People need to get on the Edwards train.

Edwards 

Nigel 

Hurt 

What if Harris turns out to be a sharp-shooting badass ?   

[Trim]

Couple breaks here and there.

When reading this I instantly heard Trim's #oscar voice in my head.

We are in your head!

[Mixed-Nutz]

my expectations for next year are about the same as this year (what this year turned out to be, not what my preseason expecto was).  outside of foster and gipson i see a lot of question marks.  some should work out, but some probably won't.

We have a ton of potential answer for the holes in roster. We have less holes going in to next year then we had this year. People need to get on the Edwards train.

Edwards 

Nigel 

Hurt 

What if Harris turns out to be a sharp-shooting badass ?   

Jevon 

[michigancat]

I really don't think people appreciate how valuable Spradling was. Especially during our nice run.

[Boondock Poonhound]

I really don't think people appreciate how valuable Spradling was. Especially during our nice run.

I hope he is more valuable next thurs/fri than he has shown in the last two games.

[ChiComCat]

That’s true both in the now (few expected this to be an NCAA Tournament team, especially after a season-opening loss to Northern Colorado at home) and the future.

oscar has gotten a lot of positive mileage for losing to a really bad team.

[michigancat]

That’s true both in the now (few expected this to be an NCAA Tournament team, especially after a season-opening loss to Northern Colorado at home) and the future.

oscar has gotten a lot of positive mileage for losing to a really bad team.

ha ha, so true

[EMAWzified]

I expected us to finish where we would have finished had OSU not lost Cobbins and Baylor not mumped off the first half of the conference season.
We're not losing anyone who isn't imminently replaceable. I'm optimistic about Hurt, who I hope gives us an inside defensive presence, rebounding and the points in the lane for a team that could be overall challenged in outside shooting.

The Big 12 next, tho. We could be better and still not win any more games. Okie State is the only team that looks to be vastly worse.

[sys]

kstate wasn't very good offensively this year.  they were better than expected because their defense was better (much better) than expected.  so for them to improve you have to project either massive offensive improvement or minor offensive improvement and the defense stays the same.  it's hard for me to project the defense will be the same when i don't really feel like i understand how it was as good as it was this year.

looking at the defensive stats, the only thing they really did well was limiting shooting percentage.  and the most salient feature of that was three-point percentage.

[catzacker]

kstate wasn't very good offensively this year.  they were better than expected because their defense was better (much better) than expected.  so for them to improve you have to project either massive offensive improvement or minor offensive improvement and the defense stays the same.  it's hard for me to project the defense will be the same when i don't really feel like i understand how it was as good as it was this year.

looking at the defensive stats, the only thing they really did well was limiting shooting percentage.  and the most salient feature of that was three-point percentage.

We were good defensively at the one stat that Ken said defenses don't really determine? I'll take lotto winners for $400 please Alex.

[sys]

my post should have said "the only thing they did really well", not "the only thing they really did well".

[catzacker]

my post should have said "the only thing they did really well", not "the only thing they really did well".

Either way, I would not have changed my post.

[Rage Against the McKee]

That’s true both in the now (few expected this to be an NCAA Tournament team, especially after a season-opening loss to Northern Colorado at home) and the future.

oscar has gotten a lot of positive mileage for losing to a really bad team.

ha ha, so true

oscar performed a whole lot better with this lineup that I ever thought he would be able to before the Northern Colorado loss. I didn't think this was an NIT team going into the season and the Northern Colorado loss just reinforced that in my mind. I think we should all be thankful that oscar recruited Marcus Foster to our Wildcats and get ready for what is sure to be a great team next season.

[michigancat]

That’s true both in the now (few expected this to be an NCAA Tournament team, especially after a season-opening loss to Northern Colorado at home) and the future.

oscar has gotten a lot of positive mileage for losing to a really bad team.

ha ha, so true

oscar performed a whole lot better with this lineup that I ever thought he would be able to before the Northern Colorado loss. I didn't think this was an NIT team going into the season and the Northern Colorado loss just reinforced that in my mind. I think we should all be thankful that oscar recruited Marcus Foster to our Wildcats and get ready for what is sure to be a great team next season.

 mostly true except I think nit was a reasonable expectation this year and I don't think a "great team" is a sure thing next year.

[Tobias]

i have fairly similar expectations of next year's team compared to this year's

[Dr Rick Daris]

That’s true both in the now (few expected this to be an NCAA Tournament team, especially after a season-opening loss to Northern Colorado at home) and the future.

oscar has gotten a lot of positive mileage for losing to a really bad team.

ha ha, so true

oscar performed a whole lot better with this lineup that I ever thought he would be able to before the Northern Colorado loss. I didn't think this was an NIT team going into the season and the Northern Colorado loss just reinforced that in my mind. I think we should all be thankful that oscar recruited Marcus Foster to our Wildcats and get ready for what is sure to be a great team next season.

 mostly true except I think nit was a reasonable expectation this year and I don't think a "great team" is a sure thing next year.

agree with mcat but to add that I don't think we will be any better next. I don't think "great" is on the table but it should be good.