Why would anybody not believe in returning punts?
if you read the article, he says that the chance of a player fumbling isn't worth the small amount of yards likely to get. makes sense when you look at the #'s.
Doesn't that sort of fly in the face of his kickoff strategy?
How so?
He always onside kicks because he assumes they will get good field position on the return anyway or may run back the kick. He doesn't field punts because he doesn't think the field position is worth the risk. He gives the statistics of the other team scoring from different field positions, but completely ignores the statistical chance of his own team scoring from poor field position.
His strategy only makes sense if his defense is horrible and his offense is very good.