This is a really good preview by Bill Connelly, an advanced FB stats guy writing for SBNation.
As I think of this game (and watch Michigan highlights via youtube), I keep going back to Michigan's running game. I'll take Michisstillgood's pessimistic home fan breakdown for what it is, but my biggest key for Michigan's offense is what can Shane Morris do?
Gardner was such a huge key for Michigan because of his mobility and Morris simply doesn't have the same thing. I went back and found Morris' maxpreps HS stats; he only ran for 170 yards on 157 carries for his HS career (1.08 yards per) and two years (SR and FR) he finished with negative rush yardage. His peak JR year (before he got sick with mono his SR year) he rushed for 150 yards, just over 2 ypc and 6 TDs; again this was in high school. This is simply not a guy who is going to be a threat to run and Michigan was keyed this year in their successful games by Gardner's ability to make plays with his feet and run it, or throw down field to Gallon and Funchess. Unless the Michigan offensive line made miraculous improvement in their bowl prep, this just looks ugly for Michigan's offense. Granted, Morris has been practicing since the Ohio State game because of Gardner's injury, but its clear that its only in the last 10 or so days that the Gardner not playing became a reality, so a Morris based game plan has only been put together in the last week or so.
K-State needs to take advantage of what it can in the passing game, and as I watch Michigan's clips Lockett will get open at times against this secondary. It also appears that many of the quarterbacks in the Big 10 are prone to throwing some of the dumbest, most forced passes that I've seen (much worse than anything we saw from Waters or Sams this year) leading to many of the INTs Michigan gained this year. We'll see if that is just my perception or reality. I'm hopeful Sams will see some time at QB (at least 3 series), but I think Waters could have a 250+ yard, 3 TD game against this defense. Lockett likely going for 150+ and 2 TDs.