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Messages - Woogy

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176
Pugsley and Wednesday go to Washington.

177
Great study on asymptomtic people from SK.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html

Hightlights

* 30% never developed symptoms
* asymptomatic had as much virus signs in them as symptomatic

* Didn't study how much either group spread it irl

Genuinely curious, as this seems such a unique feature, just how unique this is, if at all, compared to say influenzas.  Do we even have a range for influenzas; is all this targeted research in the last 8-9 months creating more knowledge about the SARS-Cov family than 100+ years of research into influenzas?

179
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Kobach running for Senate
« on: July 23, 2020, 05:11:25 PM »
Costa Rica for something a little more Americanized.  Lots of enclaves of ex-pats, plenty moving in/out/around for tourism.
You're reminding me of that episode of Parts Unknown where Anthony Bourdain talks about Americans in the Bahamas.

Its the "enclaves of ex-pats" isn't it?


180
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Kobach running for Senate
« on: July 23, 2020, 12:30:30 PM »
Costa Rica for something a little more Americanized.  Lots of enclaves of ex-pats, plenty moving in/out/around for tourism.

181
  :surprised: Sheesh - The base scale for Moscow - triple most everyplace on there, and nearly double New York's.  And it appears there's a huge spike off the scale Septemberish....


moscow is deaths per month and New York is per week. Really friggin sloppy

Gracias!

182
  :surprised: Sheesh - The base scale for Moscow - triple most everyplace on there, and nearly double New York's.  And it appears there's a huge spike off the scale Septemberish....

183
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: 51
« on: June 26, 2020, 05:20:12 PM »
This seems like another Puerto Rico situation IMO. I don't see it happening.

FWIW, I do think either this needs to happen or it be absorbed back into Maryland. That and getting Puerto Rico to be a state, and other US territories into the Union more properly has been a can kicked down the road for far too long. It's dumb to have "US Citizens" not be able to actually be legally represented in congress. That is literally the issue that caused our own war for Independence.

Knowing some folks down in PR, they're typically polarized on the statehood question.  I think their best long term prospects are as a state: their economy is just too closely tied to the US.  Their governance is just fubar though; it mostly resembles an old school early 20th century urban political machine. Patronage, protection, and graft.  Everyone has a sort of societal Stockholm Syndrome point of view due to the abuses of government.

There is enough ethnic/social pride to make the statehood question pretty divisive for them internally though versus independence.  What they really need to succeed is infrastructure and business investment. In the current world economic climate, I don't see anyone stepping up to the plate.  Maybe China, but there's not really anything there for their efforts except a thumb in the eye of the US.

Tragic really, its natural beauty and culture is awesome; given some stability, it would could be a real gem.  Its worth an extended visit; the interior mountains, the coasts, Old San Juan - all fabulous.

184
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: 51
« on: June 26, 2020, 03:51:21 PM »
There's half of a good idea in shrinking the Federal district; but just give the rest back to Maryland then. We really do not need a state the geographic size of Topeka.

185
Kansas State Football / Re: gene taylor is so small time
« on: June 10, 2020, 11:01:23 AM »
https://watchstadium.com/ranking-the-big-12-ads-with-jeff-goodman-and-brett-mcmurphy-06-08-2020/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
they gave jeff long a b- but i think he deserves an f

Yeah, Obv graded without knowledge of the Beaty settlement; although starting down that path to begin with should have been a 2 letter grade deduction.

186
One thing I've drawn from this that is a bit of a new revelation for me and I think a beneficial outcome of some of even the uglier scenes of violence in the protests is this: Police doing unjust things (and especially using violence unjustly) creates a public safety concern beyond their own limited bad act.  That's a pretty constructive disincentive for police to keep in mind moving forward.

If nothing else, don't do bad things because bad things lead to dangerous riots.  You can argue about the legitimacy of dangerous riots, but it's clear that that's a possible effect.  Whether or not the resulting violent riots are justified is pretty arbitrary.

The cops who would do the bad things are the exact same cops who really want a riot.
Even if that were true (which who knows), the incentives still exist at the societal level.  As some one who was finger wagging the violent protests over the last week (while still acknowledging that police action giving rise to it was reprehensible), my view on it has kind of changed, which is a credit to the protests, peaceful or otherwise.  You have to kind of divorce yourself from moral judgments on violent responses (which I do think are wrong) and view them as an objective effect of bad policing.

It isn't really enough to say burning a media van (for example) is bad.  Of course it's bad.  But it's also apparent that a burned police van in KC is one possible result of bad policing (locally and elsewhere).  So let's do our best not to have bad policing -- not only because it will result in fewer lives lost as a proximate cause of the bad/unjust policing, but also because it will result in less violence/lives lost as a possible response.

When police do bad things, more bad things (and maybe even worse things) happen.  So it becomes very important for police not to do bad things.

Holding police accountable for doing bad things would probably be a greater incentive for police not to do bad things.
Ok, good idea let's make sure that happens every time so we don't have nationwide riots.

Its going to need to go deeper than that - the "How" part of how they accomplish their jobs is driven by the "What" as a society we are asking them to do:

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/where-did-policing-go-wrong

Quote
Why, he asked, do we even have police? After all, the history of policing in our country, especially as it pertains to minority neighborhoods, has always rested upon dubious justifications. The early American police forces evolved out of slave patrols in the South, and “progressed” to enforce the Black Codes from the Civil War period and beyond, on to Jim Crow through the late sixties if not longer.

In an explicit way, American policing has almost always been concerned on some level with enforcing racial separatism. Because Jim Crow police were upholding a way of life, the actual laws they were given to enforce were deliberately vague, designed to be easily used as pretexts for controlling the movements of black people.
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But the Garner story ended up graphically revealing the way modern “Broken Windows” policing had evolved to fit the tactics of those centuries of racial enforcement.
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The new strategies rely upon extremely high numbers of contacts between police and subject populations, who are stopped for every conceivable minor offense – public intoxication, public urination, riding bicycles the wrong way down a sidewalk, refusing to obey police orders, jumping subway turnstiles, and, in Garner’s case, selling loose cigarettes.
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“Broken Windows” revolutionized policing, changing it from a business of fighting crime to doing what Kelling described as “order maintenance.”
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Once again, police were charged with enforcing not rules but a way of life, and were asked again to view the law as more of a tool than an end in itself.
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Such aggressive, military-style policing would be not be tolerated by voters if it were taking place everywhere. It’s popular, and continues to be embraced by politicians in both parties, because it’s only happening in “those” neighborhoods (or, as Mike Bloomberg once put it, “where the crime is”).
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Basically we have two systems of enforcement in America, a minimalist one for people with political clout, and an intrusive one for everyone else. In the same way our army in Vietnam got in trouble when it started searching for ways to quantify the success of its occupation, choosing sociopathic metrics like “body counts” and “truck kills,” modern big-city policing has been corrupted by its lust for summonses, stops, and arrests. It’s made monsters where none needed to exist.
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The incentives in this system are wrong in every direction.
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The current protests are likely to inspire politicians to think the other way, but it’s probably time to reconsider what we’re trying to accomplish with this kind of policing. In upscale white America drug use is effectively decriminalized, and Terry stops, strip searches, and “quality of life” arrests are unknowns. The country isn’t going to heal as long as everyone else gets a knee in the neck.

187
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: The riot thread
« on: May 29, 2020, 11:38:19 AM »
I think this was about the best nail on the head POV back on page 2 for everything:

I don't like rough ridin' with businesses, but 100% support rough ridin' up every piece of police property. The people gave them their tools and we have the right to take them back if they aren't used properly. I hope the procecuters office is next.

188
Quote
Analog contact tracing breaks down when infection numbers are high

I've seen this repeated in a few articles and I don't understand it. It seems like you just wouldn't be able to keep numbers down entirely but contact tracing seems like it would still help a lot.

it's just another way for the united states to give up without trying because trying seems hard.

My wife spent years doing this for the county health dept where she worked.

Outbreaks of salmonella, e coli, TB, whooping cough, even some std's.

Just trying to gather names and accurate contact info of those you ran across, say 2 weeks ago, is significant enough. Then the abuse from those being contacted. Not everyone, but enough telling you to eff off, just cause, eff you. Especially if it required some action on their part like getting a test. Now add a two week self quarantine, and the push back will go through the roof, both for those being contacted, but also the pool of people willing to be tracers will dry up in really short order.

Contact tracing was the part of her job you couldn't pay her enough to return to.

189
North Dakota had a separate app. I don't think it has anything to do with the Google/Apple Bluetooth tracing

https://mashable.com/article/north-dakota-contact-tracing-app/

Yeah - neither Google or Apple are making an app, at least for use in the states.  They are only providing the API that exposes the bluetooth proximity hit and the randomized IDs at the handset system level.  The states will have to make/contract for their own user facing app that picks up that info and sends it externally for proximity matching and other data aggregation.

But no, Google or Apple are not making the app or (supposedly) dealing or working with this tracing data directly.

190
https://www.al.com/news/2020/05/alabama-1-of-3-states-to-sign-on-with-google-apple-for-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app.html

 :bwpopcorn:

North Dakota one of those other 3:
https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/north-dakota-contact-tracing-privacy-issue/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/21/care19-dakota-privacy-coronavirus/

Quote
The state’s Care19 app, which is one of the first contact-tracing apps to debut in the United States, is covertly transmitting location information to the search and discovery platform, Foursquare, and the phone’s unique Advertising ID to Google.

In addition, the anonymous code that the app assigns to individuals and is exchanged with phones it comes in contact with to notify them when they’re exposed to an infected person is sent to Foursquare and Bugfender, a Barcelona-based diagnostics software maker.

Most states just didn't respond

https://9to5mac.com/2020/05/21/covid-19-exposure-notification-api-states/

In this case, its not the API at fault - it doesn't do anything but provide the hit flag for a bluetooth proximity match to a positive individual with a similar tracing app enabled. Rather more its the app developer and just the sorry state of default data collection in app frameworks and the attitudes of contract developers/houses.  Its good there are eyes on these as they roll out, they'll get better.  But this particular developer shows why its probably a good thing most of the states are showing Not Participating/No Response at the moment.

191
https://www.al.com/news/2020/05/alabama-1-of-3-states-to-sign-on-with-google-apple-for-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app.html

 :bwpopcorn:

North Dakota one of those other 3:
https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/north-dakota-contact-tracing-privacy-issue/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/21/care19-dakota-privacy-coronavirus/

Quote
The state’s Care19 app, which is one of the first contact-tracing apps to debut in the United States, is covertly transmitting location information to the search and discovery platform, Foursquare, and the phone’s unique Advertising ID to Google.

In addition, the anonymous code that the app assigns to individuals and is exchanged with phones it comes in contact with to notify them when they’re exposed to an infected person is sent to Foursquare and Bugfender, a Barcelona-based diagnostics software maker.

192
Not me, but some WTF all over this. Not sure why no PPP, (or was that only for essential ops), and a really, really poor choice of a hill to die on by the county attorney (arrest warrant, really!?!)

https://www.kwch.com/content/news/McPherson-business-opens-business-early-owner-faces-charges-570347131.html

193
My smart scale sent me a COVID "how are you feeling" survey today.  Surprised more organizations aren't trying to gather data like this.

Withings?  I have one of their watches - the app on the phone had what sounds like the same notification/survey.

194
This is a link to a sample application for the Payroll Protection Program:

https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/Borrower%20Paycheck%20Protection%20Program%20Application.pdf

Sounds like when the final document is released, you will fill it out and take it to any lender that processes SBA loans.  Additionally, I believe that there will be opportunities to fill this form out and send all information in digitally.  I received an email today from an small business funding marketplace that mentioned this. 

This is in addition to the EIDLs if the funds from an EIDL will not be used for payroll purposes.

There's a bit more than just filling out the app itself.  The 75% payroll/FTE certification for forgiveness better be dead ass on target, and in the lender's hands post haste.  That's eating all our time these last few days.


Ours will be 100%.

Car dealership group.  It hasn't been very clear as to what parts, if any, incentives and bonuses would be included.  We also use a lot of part time and seasonal, so converting them to FTE's, and also folks managed trough an outside agency - that only got clarified last night.

I'm not directly involved in putting any of this together, but I would imagine we're applying for as much rent and utilities in this while keeping the payroll portion above 75%.


195
This is a link to a sample application for the Payroll Protection Program:

https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/Borrower%20Paycheck%20Protection%20Program%20Application.pdf

Sounds like when the final document is released, you will fill it out and take it to any lender that processes SBA loans.  Additionally, I believe that there will be opportunities to fill this form out and send all information in digitally.  I received an email today from an small business funding marketplace that mentioned this. 

This is in addition to the EIDLs if the funds from an EIDL will not be used for payroll purposes.

There's a bit more than just filling out the app itself.  The 75% payroll/FTE certification for forgiveness better be dead ass on target, and in the lender's hands post haste.  That's eating all our time these last few days.

196
So this malaria drug going to save us all?

probably some old people at least

This has been the one thing in the back of my mind giving me hope.  We have the whole effing world's scientists trying to solve one virus and the technology to bounce its makeup against all these drugs we already have that could at least stunt it (not a full vaccine).

Perfect example - A French team reporting (Gautret et al. (2020) Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID?19: results of an open?label non?randomized clinical trial. International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents – In Press 17 March 2020 – DOI : 0.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949 ) a form of that malaria drug plus azithromycin is very effective.  It's very much just reporting on something they've tried, not a formal trial per se, and the sample is miniscule.  The good stuff is the table on page 22 and chart on page 24.


197
I think he's referencing federalism. And I have to say, the laboratory of democracy rough ridin' sucks at responding to this.

i think that's mostly just because the current head of the federal govt's response has been "hey, good luck states and cities, i'm rooting for you."  federalism causes lots of routine roadblocks in everyday life, but we're pretty decent at centralizing in emergencies.

I agree, but a good chunk of that is structural. South Korea doesn't let some boony ass school board set their curriculums or the school schedule, it is all nationalized already.

Which brings us to healthcare, which as we already knew is an absolute clusterfuck in america and at least a good chunk of the reason why the response has been so bad. Trump is a eff up, but he was in charge of a rickety system ready to fail too.

for sure but Trump taking it seriously sooner, especially when it comes to testing, could have lessened the blow.

So what play did he have re: testing? Emergency order to tell everyone to ignore the CDC's cf and FDA regs about testing and go do their own thing? It's kinda the one time he doesn't eff with something, that something turns out to be like grandpa sitting stopped through a green light

198
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Listen Jack,
« on: March 11, 2020, 08:49:49 AM »
Listen Jack, I am a little sad that you are not using the computer to get a good backup of your computer and your computer is not working properly and you can use it for a few days to get it to work in your browser and then you can use it for your own personal computer.

199
The Nebraska reported count is entirely identified infected individuals purposely brought to NU med hospital because they are evidently something of a thing equipped to handle exotic infectious disease in the US.

200
https://twitter.com/maya_sen/status/1235209533162745858

Close - He's a showman:  He'll play up the Russia angle just to poke Hillary (in the ribs, c'mon!) one more time and choose Tulsi while claiming its a moderate unity dream ticket.

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