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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 03:20:43 PM

Title: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 03:20:43 PM
Nebraska @ Kansas State   30 - 21  :frown:
Oklahoma State @ Louisiana-Lafayette   72 - 26
Baylor v Texas Tech   31 - 18
Arkansas v Texas A&M   35 - 38
Colorado @ Missouri   13 - 42
Utah @ Iowa State   24 - 14

-------------------------------------------
Alabama @ South Carolina   22 - 14
Michigan @ Michigan State   21 - 27
LSU @ Florida   12 - 13
Florida State @ Miami   16 - 24
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame   23 - 21
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: EllToPay on October 04, 2010, 03:21:51 PM
HE'S A HUSKER!
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: WillieWatanabe on October 04, 2010, 03:22:38 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ksufans.com%2Fforums%2FSmileys%2Fksufans%2Femot19.gif&hash=d657c189fff10c506e6f8316fe32b96769a4a6e3)
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: AbeFroman on October 04, 2010, 03:24:33 PM
It's official, we're going to win  :ksu: :excited: :drool: :kstatriot: :pbj: :lynchmob: :crossfingers: :fatty: :love: :pray:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on October 04, 2010, 03:26:10 PM
Kansas State  21 

 :woot:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: steve dave on October 04, 2010, 03:27:15 PM
LET'S GET THE SON OF A BITCH!
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: The42Yardstick on October 04, 2010, 03:28:35 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg%255Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg&hash=0ad7e03dc65b7f351dd053e9353c6626b81b17c9)
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: The Whale on October 04, 2010, 03:31:07 PM
Kansas State  21 

 :woot:

 :cheese:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 03:32:48 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg%255Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg&hash=0ad7e03dc65b7f351dd053e9353c6626b81b17c9)
Well now, you're never going to get invited to podcast. 

^READ THAT crap^
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Saulbadguy on October 04, 2010, 03:39:42 PM
What is the margin of error?
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Pete on October 04, 2010, 03:43:31 PM
What is the margin of error?

Prolly +/- 30.  That's my best guess after reading the rough ridin' crap.   

:goodbyecruelworld: <---- me not stopping SD, who is holding the gun...and you Chingon, you are the face that is getting blown into bits.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: The42Yardstick on October 04, 2010, 03:45:15 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg%255Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg&hash=0ad7e03dc65b7f351dd053e9353c6626b81b17c9)
Well now, you're never going to get invited to podcast. 

^READ THAT crap^

 :horrorsurprise:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 03:47:52 PM
+/- 4 points (what this means is the margin of victory can be as big as 13 or as small as 5)
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 03:49:21 PM
What is the margin of error?

Prolly +/- 30.  That's my best guess after reading the rough ridin' crap.   

:goodbyecruelworld: <---- me not stopping SD, who is holding the gun...and you Chingon, you are the face that is getting blown into bits.
If that really is SD holding the gun, then jokes on him because that means he's behind me and he'll get at the very minimum get brains all over his clothes.   Plus I will haunt both of you forever, but mostly you because you are once again being an enabler.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 04, 2010, 03:49:46 PM
Chingon, can you just use this guy's formula to predict the score? It should be much more accurate that way.

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=6791.0 (http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=6791.0)
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 03:50:22 PM
FYI

We have a 27% chance of winning!

Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 04, 2010, 03:51:30 PM
FYI

We have a 27% chance of winning!



What percentage do you place your margin of error at, then?
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: WillieWatanabe on October 04, 2010, 03:53:02 PM
FYI

We have a 27% chance of winning!



With a normal coach maybe. But with Bill, it's at least 28%.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 03:54:43 PM
FYI

We have a 27% chance of winning!



What percentage do you place your margin of error at, then?
1 sigma
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 04, 2010, 04:06:16 PM
FYI

We have a 27% chance of winning!



What percentage do you place your margin of error at, then?
1 sigma

That will give you a score outside of your "margin of error" nearly 1/3 of the time, assuming your predictor is accurate. I would just stop telling people what your margin of error is if I were you. It's kind of a lose-lose situation there.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: ChiComCat on October 04, 2010, 04:10:43 PM
If the CPI doesn't have a logo yet Chings, how bout this: :facepalm:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: kcchiefdav on October 04, 2010, 04:43:25 PM
eff...THE CPU has spoken...At least we tried.  :bawl:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: "storm"nut on October 04, 2010, 05:39:44 PM
Nebraska @ Kansas State   30 - 21  :frown:
Oklahoma State @ Louisiana-Lafayette   72 - 26
Baylor v Texas Tech   31 - 18
Arkansas v Texas A&M   35 - 38
Colorado @ Missouri   13 - 42
Utah @ Iowa State   24 - 14

-------------------------------------------
Alabama @ South Carolina   22 - 14
Michigan @ Michigan State   21 - 27
LSU @ Florida   12 - 13
Florida State @ Miami   16 - 24
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame   23 - 21

Think the CPU is going 0 - 6 in the Big 12 this week. You live by the computer you die by it as well.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 06:22:27 PM
FYI

We have a 27% chance of winning!



What percentage do you place your margin of error at, then?
1 sigma

That will give you a score outside of your "margin of error" nearly 1/3 of the time, assuming your predictor is accurate. I would just stop telling people what your margin of error is if I were you. It's kind of a lose-lose situation there.
FYI, it's not really 1 sigma (that was a bs answer because I was short on time and felt like being a smartass).   I will give more details when I have more time.

also,
The probability of winning was calculated using a pythagorean win formula (based on each teams adj off and def efficiencies).
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 04, 2010, 06:23:59 PM
Nebraska @ Kansas State   30 - 21  :frown:
Oklahoma State @ Louisiana-Lafayette   72 - 26
Baylor v Texas Tech   31 - 18
Arkansas v Texas A&M   35 - 38
Colorado @ Missouri   13 - 42
Utah @ Iowa State   24 - 14

-------------------------------------------
Alabama @ South Carolina   22 - 14
Michigan @ Michigan State   21 - 27
LSU @ Florida   12 - 13
Florida State @ Miami   16 - 24
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame   23 - 21

Think the CPU is going 0 - 6 in the Big 12 this week. You live by the computer you die by it as well.

I think you're a dumbass. The CPU will do just fine this week.

That means bet on:
K-State (I would probably skip this one)
OSU
Utah
Missouri
Baylor
Texas A&M
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: ew2x4 on October 04, 2010, 06:46:47 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg%255Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg&hash=0ad7e03dc65b7f351dd053e9353c6626b81b17c9)

Using this too much.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: The42Yardstick on October 04, 2010, 06:53:28 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg%255Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2Fve6r79.jpg&hash=0ad7e03dc65b7f351dd053e9353c6626b81b17c9)

Using this too much.

This one was sarcastic. Did you listen to the podcast?
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2010, 08:16:56 PM
Ok here's the "real" answer:

The margin of error for this game is pretty large relatively speaking, it is only 73% certain of a NU victory.  So with ~95% certainty the game will have a spread of +/- 11 (the cat's can win by 2 or lose by 20).
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 04, 2010, 10:10:33 PM
Ok here's the "real" answer:

The margin of error for this game is pretty large relatively speaking, it is only 73% certain of a NU victory.  So with ~95% certainty the game will have a spread of +/- 11 (the cat's can win by 2 or lose by 20).

I'm sure you're right, but it seems kind of odd that K-State has a 27% chance of winning by 1 or more, but only  ~5% chance of winning by 3 or more. I guess I'll just take the 27% and  :cheese:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: steve dave on October 05, 2010, 08:47:08 AM
I'LL PUNCH YOUR LIGHTS OUT!
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on October 05, 2010, 09:20:15 AM
he's just making this stuff up as he goes along folks. you really just can't beat this.


btw,
i used the pythagorean theorem and one data set of points to the third power and ran last weeks weeks scores and came up with the prediction that chingon is a total dumbass. confidence level of 95% with margin of error plus or minus three. take it for what it's worth folks.




 :flush:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 05, 2010, 10:44:03 AM
he's just making this stuff up as he goes along folks. you really just can't beat this.


btw,
i used the pythagorean theorem and one data set of points to the third power and ran last weeks weeks scores and came up with the prediction that chingon is a total dumbass. confidence level of 95% with margin of error plus or minus three. take it for what it's worth folks.




 :flush:
Here's a CPU:

Rick Daris gets his face stomped Thursday before the game. I know where you and your ugly little friends will be.  Your mouth just wrote a check even your fat ass can't cover.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: PoetWarrior on October 05, 2010, 11:44:15 AM
I have a prediction:

The outcome of this game will largely be determined by the environment in which it is played.


Does this system take these factors into account?
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 05, 2010, 11:44:44 AM
I have a prediction:

The outcome of this game will largely be determined by the environment in which it is played.


Does this system take these factors into account?
IT DOES!
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: PoetWarrior on October 05, 2010, 11:49:57 AM
It should be very accurate then.


But that assumes the outcome of a football game could be predicted, by some means, which is absolutely ridiculous.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on October 05, 2010, 11:50:48 AM
he's just making this stuff up as he goes along folks. you really just can't beat this.


btw,
i used the pythagorean theorem and one data set of points to the third power and ran last weeks weeks scores and came up with the prediction that chingon is a total dumbass. confidence level of 95% with margin of error plus or minus three. take it for what it's worth folks.




 :flush:
Here's a CPU:

Rick Daris gets his face stomped Thursday before the game. I know where you and your ugly little friends will be.  Your mouth just wrote a check even your fat ass can't cover.

 :pray:
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 05, 2010, 11:54:27 AM
It should be very accurate then.


But that assumes the outcome of a football game could be predicted, by some means, which is absolutely ridiculous.
Not really.  It won't be 100% accurate, but it can give you a substantially better than uninformed prediction.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: kso_FAN on October 05, 2010, 11:55:23 AM
Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: CHONGS on October 05, 2010, 12:05:06 PM
Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.
Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: kso_FAN on October 05, 2010, 12:09:06 PM
Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.
Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).

That makes sense.  It would be interesting to see the numbers run on adjusted points per special teams play.  Probably a ton of more work for you though.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: slimz on October 05, 2010, 01:47:41 PM
It appears the CPU is used to set the Vegas lines and O/U: 12 point spread, 52 O/U.
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: steve dave on October 05, 2010, 01:50:55 PM
Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.
Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).

That makes sense.  It would be interesting to see the numbers run on adjusted points per special teams play.  Probably a ton of more work for you though.

It would be interesting to see the numbers run by someone who wasn't A SQWUAK HUSKER NAZI!
Title: Re: CPU Predictos (Week 5)
Post by: The42Yardstick on October 05, 2010, 01:52:31 PM
Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.
Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).

That makes sense.  It would be interesting to see the numbers run on adjusted points per special teams play.  Probably a ton of more work for you though.

It would be interesting to see the numbers run by someone who wasn't A SQWUAK HUSKER NAZI!


Are you going to want to fire Snyder if we win?