goemaw.com

General Discussion => Essentially Flyertalk => Topic started by: chum1 on April 28, 2025, 07:59:15 PM

Title: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: chum1 on April 28, 2025, 07:59:15 PM
What essentials should I stock up on? Is toilet paper potentially an issue?
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: wetwillie on April 28, 2025, 09:01:56 PM
Get ahold of yourself man 
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Spracne on April 28, 2025, 09:10:55 PM
Caviar prices are through the decks, me boys!
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: sonofdaxjones on April 29, 2025, 10:18:38 AM
Could be a bumpy run when I try to get my monthly case of Louis Roederer Cristal Champagne Brut
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: star seed 7 on April 29, 2025, 10:24:56 AM
I only buy American  :kstatriot:
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: CNS on April 29, 2025, 11:04:37 AM
Probably shoes, clothes, and any stuff similar that you would need sooner than later.  Do you guys think the containers will be a flowing by fall again?  If not, maybe that new winter jacket you need?

Also, a Nissan or Subaru if you had your eye on one of those specifically.  Sounds like they are removing assembly plants from US of A and moving them to Canada. 
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: chum1 on April 29, 2025, 11:31:33 AM
Do you guys think the containers will be a flowing by fall again?

Based on what I've read from supply chain experts, if uncertainly lasts another month or two from now, there will definitely be major issues with back to school and holiday products.

So, probably not.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: catastrophe on April 29, 2025, 12:33:31 PM
Our kids are going to be supply chain experts really quick if the Nintendo Switch 2 release is affected by all this BS.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: mocat on April 29, 2025, 12:37:30 PM
i'm pretty sure trump will cave before the fall
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on April 29, 2025, 12:39:28 PM
I want to hear about fireworks
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: pissclams on April 29, 2025, 02:12:51 PM
i think the usa made it plenty clear during ww1 and ww2 that we’re capable of producing our own fireworks, thank you kindly
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Cartierfor3 on April 29, 2025, 02:24:58 PM
i'm pretty sure trump will cave before the fall

Eh, I'm not so sure.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on April 29, 2025, 10:40:28 PM
This is interesting, at the bottom you can get an idea of impact by HTS code:

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/what-does-us-import-from-china/746291/

I'd consider buying an umbrella!!!
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: chum1 on April 30, 2025, 06:27:40 AM
This is interesting, at the bottom you can get an idea of impact by HTS code:

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/what-does-us-import-from-china/746291/

I'd consider buying an umbrella!!!

That's a great list!

This one looks like a major red flag. Based on what I've read, products with low margins like these are especially vulnerable to shortages.

Quote
Toys, Games And Sports Equipment; Parts And Accessories Thereof

China's market share of US imports*     73.3%
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on April 30, 2025, 07:08:41 AM
This is interesting, at the bottom you can get an idea of impact by HTS code:

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/what-does-us-import-from-china/746291/

I'd consider buying an umbrella!!!

That's a great list!

This one looks like a major red flag. Based on what I've read, products with low margins like these are especially vulnerable to shortages.

Quote
Toys, Games And Sports Equipment; Parts And Accessories Thereof

China's market share of US imports*     73.3%

Yeah toys are a big one. I'm pretty sure just about every tennis racket except Yonex is made in China too.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: bucket on April 30, 2025, 07:10:33 AM
I have felt some urgency to buy new running shoes
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on April 30, 2025, 07:22:02 AM
I have felt some urgency to buy new running shoes

Those probably won't be too bad as long as Vietnam stays at 10% or lower. I'd expect higher prices and shortages in select styles but not sure it will be disrupted too much.

Now if Vietnam goes back to 46%???
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: CNS on April 30, 2025, 07:41:46 AM
The Switch 2 is going to be the perfect storm.  I read the other day that they had something like 2.2 million more pre-orders than expected, that just the increased order volume made Nintendo concerned about being able to meet that order, and that article didn't state anything about tariffs or how rough ridin' stupid Donald Trump is. 

How many incels are going to change their political narrative based on the latest iteration of Zelda?
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Phil Titola on April 30, 2025, 08:49:18 AM
I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: CNS on April 30, 2025, 09:52:02 AM
I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?

Prob too late.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on April 30, 2025, 10:01:32 AM
I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?

you should hurry if it isn't too late. I would guess Memorial Day sales will be the lower than they ever will be again.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: star seed 7 on April 30, 2025, 10:04:26 AM
I bought a new oled this weekend from nfm, untarriffed!
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on April 30, 2025, 10:10:23 AM
the biggest furniture chain in NYC is advertising "pre-tariff" sales

(https://i.imgur.com/TmQdpBK.png)

https://www.raymourflanigan.com

they will raise prices and won't lower them if tariffs go down.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Phil Titola on April 30, 2025, 10:34:59 AM
I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?

Prob too late.

Nope still good price . See investing thread regarding nfm pricing
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: GregKSU1027 on April 30, 2025, 11:53:25 AM
I literally bought a car from a dealer last week because of the tariff threat. :lol:
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: 'taterblast on April 30, 2025, 02:51:08 PM
i got an email from a Canadian company called Lomi that makes indoor composters. they said they can't ship to / sell to USA anymore because tariffs.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: catastrophe on April 30, 2025, 04:01:28 PM
i got an email from a Canadian company called Lomi that makes indoor composters. they said they can't ship to / sell to USA anymore because tariffs.

Those things look cool. I've failed several times at outdoor composting.
Title: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: steve dave on April 30, 2025, 04:56:14 PM
Apparently blueberries :-(

Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: pissclams on April 30, 2025, 05:27:32 PM
The Switch 2 is going to be the perfect storm.  I read the other day that they had something like 2.2 million more pre-orders than expected, that just the increased order volume made Nintendo concerned about being able to meet that order, and that article didn't state anything about tariffs or how rough ridin' stupid Donald Trump is. 

How many incels are going to change their political narrative based on the latest iteration of Zelda?
when was the last time that nintendo produced enough hardware to meet demand?  the answer is never.  tariffs have nothing to do with the inevitable shortage of the new switch.

shortages are part of their strategy
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on April 30, 2025, 05:28:28 PM
Apparently blueberries :-(

Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lotta blueberries grown domestically (source: michiganders made a big fuckin deal about it) (shortages be a famine problem though)
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: wetwillie on April 30, 2025, 10:20:41 PM
Steve Dave thinking blueberries come from China is the most on brand thing ever
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Stevesie60 on May 01, 2025, 01:52:56 AM
Anything for kids/babies. Glad we stocked up on the first one so we're mostly good to go, although our boy may be wearing some pink hand-me-down stuff from his older sister.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: mocat on May 01, 2025, 08:12:59 AM
iirc last year blueberry prices went crazy so i switched to blackberries for a while. this week blueberries and blackberries were the same normal low blackberry price so i got blueberries :cool:
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: bucket on May 01, 2025, 09:11:58 AM
Blueberries usually cost me $2/pint. They were $6 last week. Occasionally they're not listed on sale and you have to pay the higher price so I'm hoping it was just a one off. However, when I went shopping last weekend almost nothing was on sale which seemed odd. Usually there's always one brand for every product that's listed on sale and that's the one I buy. There were only a couple exceptions. One was ice cream and I cannot remember what the other was. Tortillas, maybe.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Justwin on May 01, 2025, 11:03:21 AM
I want to hear about fireworks

Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.

There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: waks on May 01, 2025, 11:14:26 AM
iirc last year blueberry prices went crazy so i switched to blackberries for a while. this week blueberries and blackberries were the same normal low blackberry price so i got blueberries :cool:
I don't buy blueberries or blackberries because I eat them like popcorn. Pint of blueberries? Gone before Hans Gruber even shows up in Die Hard.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on May 01, 2025, 11:14:50 AM


I want to hear about fireworks

Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.

There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.

Are those next year's fireworks sitting in containers? What happens to the wholesalers and retailers if the tariffs aren't dropped? Do they go under, import a lot less, raise prices, or all of the above? What's kind of the drop dead date before things get really serious for the supply chain if the tariffs aren't dropped?
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: CNS on May 01, 2025, 01:02:38 PM
Firework manufacturing reshoring sounds like a great thing.

Good jobs.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Dugout DickStone on May 01, 2025, 01:37:26 PM
serious about couches though?
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 01, 2025, 02:03:48 PM
Firework manufacturing reshoring sounds like a great thing.

Good jobs.

working at the Blackcat factory all day sounds amazing.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: yoga-like_abana on May 01, 2025, 02:14:36 PM
Apparently blueberries :-(

Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blueberryanon gonna blueberryanon
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Justwin on May 01, 2025, 03:48:31 PM
Firework manufacturing reshoring sounds like a great thing.

Good jobs.

working at the Blackcat factory all day sounds amazing.

And the thing about it is that even if the wages were good and conditions not terrible, the American public would not tolerate the explosions that occur every year.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: waks on May 01, 2025, 03:54:16 PM
Apparently blueberries :-(

Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blueberryanon gonna blueberryanon
:lol:
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: DaBigTrain on May 01, 2025, 05:06:35 PM
Steve Dave thinking blueberries come from China is the most on brand thing ever
:lol:
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: star seed 7 on May 01, 2025, 05:47:21 PM
Xbox series x went up $100 overnight
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: meow meow on May 01, 2025, 05:58:55 PM
may be a good time to try and pawn my ole xbox one :gocho:
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: wetwillie on May 01, 2025, 06:07:01 PM
I'll give you $20 for it
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on May 01, 2025, 06:15:14 PM
serious about couches though?

They will definitely go up. Even if Trump caves prices will go up imo. (Or rather when Trump caves.)

Couches are interesting though because a lot of them are made in the USA. Only problem is so much of the fabric comes from Asia, so a company will be likely to shift production of furniture with the same fabric to a place like Vietnam to only real with the 10% Vietnam tariff. Fun stuff
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Justwin on May 02, 2025, 08:58:48 AM


I want to hear about fireworks

Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.

There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.

Are those next year's fireworks sitting in containers? What happens to the wholesalers and retailers if the tariffs aren't dropped? Do they go under, import a lot less, raise prices, or all of the above? What's kind of the drop dead date before things get really serious for the supply chain if the tariffs aren't dropped?

I would say they are fireworks for sales after the July 4th season and next year. There are states (Kansas is now one of them) that have year-round sales and there are states that allow sales at New Year's.

If the tariffs are not dropped, prices will increase most definitely. The price increases we are looking at are going to reduce demand substantially, in my opinion, which will lead to reduced sales and imports. The drop in the quantity of sales will outpace the increase in price and lead to lower revenue. We are at our limit currently on pricing for fireworks and any further increases is going to hammer demand. Prices are quite elevated compared to 2019 and it is much more than just the effects of inflation.

We (brothers and myself) are not dependent on fireworks for our livelihood. It is a side hustle/hobby for us, so we can just ride out these bad times and be alright. It won't be great, but I could see us being better off on the other side when tariffs are dropped if it causes other fireworks stands to drop out of the market.

If you are dependent on fireworks for your livelihood, then I would be looking at ways to generate some income in case the tariffs are not dropped. If the tariffs stick around, 2026 will not be pretty for fireworks. There are a lot of companies, especially small to medium size importers, that are dependent on current sales to pay off previous orders. I could see a lot of them getting wiped out. It's similar to how Social Security is set up where if there was no current Social Security taxes, there would be no money to pay previously promised benefits.

A drop dead date for the 2026 season would probably be January 1. The good news is that there are a lot of fireworks already produced. The difficulty will be getting them all shipped over here. The transit time isn't too long, but there are limits on the number of fireworks containers that can be on any one ship. If the tariffs are removed, everyone is going to be trying to ship product here at the same time and it will create a huge bottleneck.

I know every industry thinks that their industry is special and shouldn't be subject to tariffs, but I think it is especially true for fireworks. We are never going to produce fireworks in the US. As I stated earlier, the public won't stand for the explosions and deaths that result. Additionally, China is the only place for us to get fireworks. There are other countries that produce fireworks, but they are unsafe, terrible or both. One wholesaler we buy from has started a line that is Made in Brazil, but the cakes from there suck. There is nothing to gain by putting tariffs on fireworks, except to raise prices for US consumers.

It is ironic, but not really with this president, that Trump claims to be all about the US and patriotism, but he is going to make is nearly impossible to celebrate the 4th of July in the way we traditionally have celebrated it. Moreover, 2026 is the 250th birthday of our country and Trump is poised to crap all over it.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: michigancat on May 02, 2025, 09:03:14 AM
I want to hear about fireworks

Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.

There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.

Are those next year's fireworks sitting in containers? What happens to the wholesalers and retailers if the tariffs aren't dropped? Do they go under, import a lot less, raise prices, or all of the above? What's kind of the drop dead date before things get really serious for the supply chain if the tariffs aren't dropped?

I would say they are fireworks for sales after the July 4th season and next year. There are states (Kansas is now one of them) that have year-round sales and there are states that allow sales at New Year's.

If the tariffs are not dropped, prices will increase most definitely. The price increases we are looking at are going to reduce demand substantially, in my opinion, which will lead to reduced sales and imports. The drop in the quantity of sales will outpace the increase in price and lead to lower revenue. We are at our limit currently on pricing for fireworks and any further increases is going to hammer demand. Prices are quite elevated compared to 2019 and it is much more than just the effects of inflation.

We (brothers and myself) are not dependent on fireworks for our livelihood. It is a side hustle/hobby for us, so we can just ride out these bad times and be alright. It won't be great, but I could see us being better off on the other side when tariffs are dropped if it causes other fireworks stands to drop out of the market.

If you are dependent on fireworks for your livelihood, then I would be looking at ways to generate some income in case the tariffs are not dropped. If the tariffs stick around, 2026 will not be pretty for fireworks. There are a lot of companies, especially small to medium size importers, that are dependent on current sales to pay off previous orders. I could see a lot of them getting wiped out. It's similar to how Social Security is set up where if there was no current Social Security taxes, there would be no money to pay previously promised benefits.

A drop dead date for the 2026 season would probably be January 1. The good news is that there are a lot of fireworks already produced. The difficulty will be getting them all shipped over here. The transit time isn't too long, but there are limits on the number of fireworks containers that can be on any one ship. If the tariffs are removed, everyone is going to be trying to ship product here at the same time and it will create a huge bottleneck.

I know every industry thinks that their industry is special and shouldn't be subject to tariffs, but I think it is especially true for fireworks. We are never going to produce fireworks in the US. As I stated earlier, the public won't stand for the explosions and deaths that result. Additionally, China is the only place for us to get fireworks. There are other countries that produce fireworks, but they are unsafe, terrible or both. One wholesaler we buy from has started a line that is Made in Brazil, but the cakes from there suck. There is nothing to gain by putting tariffs on fireworks, except to raise prices for US consumers.

It is ironic, but not really with this president, that Trump claims to be all about the US and patriotism, but he is going to make is nearly impossible to celebrate the 4th of July in the way we traditionally have celebrated it. Moreover, 2026 is the 250th birthday of our country and Trump is poised to crap all over it.

that is seriously fascinating to me, thanks.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Trim on May 02, 2025, 09:32:42 AM
Would be tough to not support a pres who extincts fireworks.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Phil Titola on May 02, 2025, 09:43:55 AM
Would be tough to not support a pres who extincts fireworks.

I think fireworks are right behind guns and cars in american's priority list, we got no shot at them going away.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: CNS on May 02, 2025, 09:45:42 AM
There are some KCK guys I know of that are going to do very well with this blooming fireworks issue.  Black markets are probably thrilled across the board.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: wetwillie on May 02, 2025, 10:49:16 AM
How on earth did we find ourselves not making our own boom boom sticks. This is America for fucks sake.
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: star seed 7 on May 02, 2025, 10:50:28 AM
Real opportunity for big gun to take over
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: yoga-like_abana on May 02, 2025, 02:46:08 PM
Freedom ain't free
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Spracne on May 02, 2025, 03:01:25 PM
Tariff don't like it...
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: CNS on May 02, 2025, 03:03:16 PM
“They will have to pry them from by bloodied stump of a hand”
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: chum1 on May 05, 2025, 03:37:37 PM
Quote
Product   Value   Quantity (total)   Quantity (China)   Chinese Share   Alternative sources
Alarm clocks    $50 million   11.49 million   11.43 million   99%   Taiwan
Battery-powered sex toys   $450 million   45.0 million   43.6 million   97%   Korea, Germany
Baby strollers   $392 million   5.68 million   5.45 million   96%   Vietnam
Microwave ovens   $1.40 billion   19.7 million   18.5 million   95%   Malaysia, Thailand
Hair dryers   $406 million   23.8 million   20.9 million   88%   Cambodia
Clarinets     $35 million   96,200   66,200   67%   Indonesia
Blenders & juicers   $744 million   45.0 million   38.4 million   85%   Mexico
Toothbrushes   $289 million   1.24 billion   755 million   61%   Germany, Vietnam
Hammers   $111 million   21.15 million   10.30 million   49%   Mexico
Ball-point pens   $481 million   2.75 billion   1.28 billion   47%   Japan, Mexico
Vacuum cleaners   $2.98 billion   63.6 million   22.2 million   35%   Vietnam
Razors   $482 million   1.47 billion   210 million   14%   Mexico, Greece
 

https://www.progressivepolicy.org/alarm-clocks-baby-strollers-battery-powered-sex-toys-and-thermos-bottles-may-vanish-from-american-stores-by-the-end-of-may/
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: Phil Titola on May 05, 2025, 03:49:21 PM
sex toy backup being Germany made me LOL
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: mocat on May 08, 2025, 02:30:25 PM
sex toy backup being Germany made me LOL

can u imaj the dependability and sleek design of a Rowenta vibrator
Title: Re: Tariff caused shortages
Post by: bucket on May 13, 2025, 07:19:43 PM
Good news. Blueberries were down to $3/pint this past weekend. We're going to be okay.