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General Discussion => Essentially Flyertalk => Topic started by: chum1 on April 28, 2025, 07:59:15 PM
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What essentials should I stock up on? Is toilet paper potentially an issue?
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Get ahold of yourself man
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Caviar prices are through the decks, me boys!
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Could be a bumpy run when I try to get my monthly case of Louis Roederer Cristal Champagne Brut
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I only buy American :kstatriot:
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Probably shoes, clothes, and any stuff similar that you would need sooner than later. Do you guys think the containers will be a flowing by fall again? If not, maybe that new winter jacket you need?
Also, a Nissan or Subaru if you had your eye on one of those specifically. Sounds like they are removing assembly plants from US of A and moving them to Canada.
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Do you guys think the containers will be a flowing by fall again?
Based on what I've read from supply chain experts, if uncertainly lasts another month or two from now, there will definitely be major issues with back to school and holiday products.
So, probably not.
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Our kids are going to be supply chain experts really quick if the Nintendo Switch 2 release is affected by all this BS.
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i'm pretty sure trump will cave before the fall
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I want to hear about fireworks
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i think the usa made it plenty clear during ww1 and ww2 that we’re capable of producing our own fireworks, thank you kindly
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i'm pretty sure trump will cave before the fall
Eh, I'm not so sure.
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This is interesting, at the bottom you can get an idea of impact by HTS code:
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/what-does-us-import-from-china/746291/
I'd consider buying an umbrella!!!
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This is interesting, at the bottom you can get an idea of impact by HTS code:
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/what-does-us-import-from-china/746291/
I'd consider buying an umbrella!!!
That's a great list!
This one looks like a major red flag. Based on what I've read, products with low margins like these are especially vulnerable to shortages.
Toys, Games And Sports Equipment; Parts And Accessories Thereof
China's market share of US imports* 73.3%
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This is interesting, at the bottom you can get an idea of impact by HTS code:
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/what-does-us-import-from-china/746291/
I'd consider buying an umbrella!!!
That's a great list!
This one looks like a major red flag. Based on what I've read, products with low margins like these are especially vulnerable to shortages.
Toys, Games And Sports Equipment; Parts And Accessories Thereof
China's market share of US imports* 73.3%
Yeah toys are a big one. I'm pretty sure just about every tennis racket except Yonex is made in China too.
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I have felt some urgency to buy new running shoes
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I have felt some urgency to buy new running shoes
Those probably won't be too bad as long as Vietnam stays at 10% or lower. I'd expect higher prices and shortages in select styles but not sure it will be disrupted too much.
Now if Vietnam goes back to 46%???
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The Switch 2 is going to be the perfect storm. I read the other day that they had something like 2.2 million more pre-orders than expected, that just the increased order volume made Nintendo concerned about being able to meet that order, and that article didn't state anything about tariffs or how rough ridin' stupid Donald Trump is.
How many incels are going to change their political narrative based on the latest iteration of Zelda?
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I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?
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I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?
Prob too late.
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I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?
you should hurry if it isn't too late. I would guess Memorial Day sales will be the lower than they ever will be again.
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I bought a new oled this weekend from nfm, untarriffed!
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the biggest furniture chain in NYC is advertising "pre-tariff" sales
(https://i.imgur.com/TmQdpBK.png)
https://www.raymourflanigan.com
they will raise prices and won't lower them if tariffs go down.
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I've been on the fence about new couches, tariffheads should I grab one before they jump in price or is furniture not expected to be a big deal?
Prob too late.
Nope still good price . See investing thread regarding nfm pricing
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I literally bought a car from a dealer last week because of the tariff threat. :lol:
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i got an email from a Canadian company called Lomi that makes indoor composters. they said they can't ship to / sell to USA anymore because tariffs.
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i got an email from a Canadian company called Lomi that makes indoor composters. they said they can't ship to / sell to USA anymore because tariffs.
Those things look cool. I've failed several times at outdoor composting.
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Apparently blueberries :-(
Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The Switch 2 is going to be the perfect storm. I read the other day that they had something like 2.2 million more pre-orders than expected, that just the increased order volume made Nintendo concerned about being able to meet that order, and that article didn't state anything about tariffs or how rough ridin' stupid Donald Trump is.
How many incels are going to change their political narrative based on the latest iteration of Zelda?
when was the last time that nintendo produced enough hardware to meet demand? the answer is never. tariffs have nothing to do with the inevitable shortage of the new switch.
shortages are part of their strategy
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Apparently blueberries :-(
Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lotta blueberries grown domestically (source: michiganders made a big fuckin deal about it) (shortages be a famine problem though)
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Steve Dave thinking blueberries come from China is the most on brand thing ever
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Anything for kids/babies. Glad we stocked up on the first one so we're mostly good to go, although our boy may be wearing some pink hand-me-down stuff from his older sister.
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iirc last year blueberry prices went crazy so i switched to blackberries for a while. this week blueberries and blackberries were the same normal low blackberry price so i got blueberries :cool:
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Blueberries usually cost me $2/pint. They were $6 last week. Occasionally they're not listed on sale and you have to pay the higher price so I'm hoping it was just a one off. However, when I went shopping last weekend almost nothing was on sale which seemed odd. Usually there's always one brand for every product that's listed on sale and that's the one I buy. There were only a couple exceptions. One was ice cream and I cannot remember what the other was. Tortillas, maybe.
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I want to hear about fireworks
Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.
There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.
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iirc last year blueberry prices went crazy so i switched to blackberries for a while. this week blueberries and blackberries were the same normal low blackberry price so i got blueberries :cool:
I don't buy blueberries or blackberries because I eat them like popcorn. Pint of blueberries? Gone before Hans Gruber even shows up in Die Hard.
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I want to hear about fireworks
Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.
There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.
Are those next year's fireworks sitting in containers? What happens to the wholesalers and retailers if the tariffs aren't dropped? Do they go under, import a lot less, raise prices, or all of the above? What's kind of the drop dead date before things get really serious for the supply chain if the tariffs aren't dropped?
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Firework manufacturing reshoring sounds like a great thing.
Good jobs.
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serious about couches though?
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Firework manufacturing reshoring sounds like a great thing.
Good jobs.
working at the Blackcat factory all day sounds amazing.
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Apparently blueberries :-(
Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blueberryanon gonna blueberryanon
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Firework manufacturing reshoring sounds like a great thing.
Good jobs.
working at the Blackcat factory all day sounds amazing.
And the thing about it is that even if the wages were good and conditions not terrible, the American public would not tolerate the explosions that occur every year.
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Apparently blueberries :-(
Not sure if tariff related though. Seems too early.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blueberryanon gonna blueberryanon
:lol:
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Steve Dave thinking blueberries come from China is the most on brand thing ever
:lol:
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Xbox series x went up $100 overnight
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may be a good time to try and pawn my ole xbox one :gocho:
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I'll give you $20 for it
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serious about couches though?
They will definitely go up. Even if Trump caves prices will go up imo. (Or rather when Trump caves.)
Couches are interesting though because a lot of them are made in the USA. Only problem is so much of the fabric comes from Asia, so a company will be likely to shift production of furniture with the same fabric to a place like Vietnam to only real with the 10% Vietnam tariff. Fun stuff
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I want to hear about fireworks
Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.
There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.
Are those next year's fireworks sitting in containers? What happens to the wholesalers and retailers if the tariffs aren't dropped? Do they go under, import a lot less, raise prices, or all of the above? What's kind of the drop dead date before things get really serious for the supply chain if the tariffs aren't dropped?
I would say they are fireworks for sales after the July 4th season and next year. There are states (Kansas is now one of them) that have year-round sales and there are states that allow sales at New Year's.
If the tariffs are not dropped, prices will increase most definitely. The price increases we are looking at are going to reduce demand substantially, in my opinion, which will lead to reduced sales and imports. The drop in the quantity of sales will outpace the increase in price and lead to lower revenue. We are at our limit currently on pricing for fireworks and any further increases is going to hammer demand. Prices are quite elevated compared to 2019 and it is much more than just the effects of inflation.
We (brothers and myself) are not dependent on fireworks for our livelihood. It is a side hustle/hobby for us, so we can just ride out these bad times and be alright. It won't be great, but I could see us being better off on the other side when tariffs are dropped if it causes other fireworks stands to drop out of the market.
If you are dependent on fireworks for your livelihood, then I would be looking at ways to generate some income in case the tariffs are not dropped. If the tariffs stick around, 2026 will not be pretty for fireworks. There are a lot of companies, especially small to medium size importers, that are dependent on current sales to pay off previous orders. I could see a lot of them getting wiped out. It's similar to how Social Security is set up where if there was no current Social Security taxes, there would be no money to pay previously promised benefits.
A drop dead date for the 2026 season would probably be January 1. The good news is that there are a lot of fireworks already produced. The difficulty will be getting them all shipped over here. The transit time isn't too long, but there are limits on the number of fireworks containers that can be on any one ship. If the tariffs are removed, everyone is going to be trying to ship product here at the same time and it will create a huge bottleneck.
I know every industry thinks that their industry is special and shouldn't be subject to tariffs, but I think it is especially true for fireworks. We are never going to produce fireworks in the US. As I stated earlier, the public won't stand for the explosions and deaths that result. Additionally, China is the only place for us to get fireworks. There are other countries that produce fireworks, but they are unsafe, terrible or both. One wholesaler we buy from has started a line that is Made in Brazil, but the cakes from there suck. There is nothing to gain by putting tariffs on fireworks, except to raise prices for US consumers.
It is ironic, but not really with this president, that Trump claims to be all about the US and patriotism, but he is going to make is nearly impossible to celebrate the 4th of July in the way we traditionally have celebrated it. Moreover, 2026 is the 250th birthday of our country and Trump is poised to crap all over it.
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I want to hear about fireworks
Almost zero effect on fireworks this year. If the tariffs stick around until next year, wholesale prices will double.
There are a lot of fireworks that have been produced that importers have declined to have shipped to the US and they are just sitting in containers in China. If the tariffs are not removed, I don't see many fireworks needing to be imported and, if that happens, the factories in China are going to be hurting.
Are those next year's fireworks sitting in containers? What happens to the wholesalers and retailers if the tariffs aren't dropped? Do they go under, import a lot less, raise prices, or all of the above? What's kind of the drop dead date before things get really serious for the supply chain if the tariffs aren't dropped?
I would say they are fireworks for sales after the July 4th season and next year. There are states (Kansas is now one of them) that have year-round sales and there are states that allow sales at New Year's.
If the tariffs are not dropped, prices will increase most definitely. The price increases we are looking at are going to reduce demand substantially, in my opinion, which will lead to reduced sales and imports. The drop in the quantity of sales will outpace the increase in price and lead to lower revenue. We are at our limit currently on pricing for fireworks and any further increases is going to hammer demand. Prices are quite elevated compared to 2019 and it is much more than just the effects of inflation.
We (brothers and myself) are not dependent on fireworks for our livelihood. It is a side hustle/hobby for us, so we can just ride out these bad times and be alright. It won't be great, but I could see us being better off on the other side when tariffs are dropped if it causes other fireworks stands to drop out of the market.
If you are dependent on fireworks for your livelihood, then I would be looking at ways to generate some income in case the tariffs are not dropped. If the tariffs stick around, 2026 will not be pretty for fireworks. There are a lot of companies, especially small to medium size importers, that are dependent on current sales to pay off previous orders. I could see a lot of them getting wiped out. It's similar to how Social Security is set up where if there was no current Social Security taxes, there would be no money to pay previously promised benefits.
A drop dead date for the 2026 season would probably be January 1. The good news is that there are a lot of fireworks already produced. The difficulty will be getting them all shipped over here. The transit time isn't too long, but there are limits on the number of fireworks containers that can be on any one ship. If the tariffs are removed, everyone is going to be trying to ship product here at the same time and it will create a huge bottleneck.
I know every industry thinks that their industry is special and shouldn't be subject to tariffs, but I think it is especially true for fireworks. We are never going to produce fireworks in the US. As I stated earlier, the public won't stand for the explosions and deaths that result. Additionally, China is the only place for us to get fireworks. There are other countries that produce fireworks, but they are unsafe, terrible or both. One wholesaler we buy from has started a line that is Made in Brazil, but the cakes from there suck. There is nothing to gain by putting tariffs on fireworks, except to raise prices for US consumers.
It is ironic, but not really with this president, that Trump claims to be all about the US and patriotism, but he is going to make is nearly impossible to celebrate the 4th of July in the way we traditionally have celebrated it. Moreover, 2026 is the 250th birthday of our country and Trump is poised to crap all over it.
that is seriously fascinating to me, thanks.
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Would be tough to not support a pres who extincts fireworks.
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Would be tough to not support a pres who extincts fireworks.
I think fireworks are right behind guns and cars in american's priority list, we got no shot at them going away.
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There are some KCK guys I know of that are going to do very well with this blooming fireworks issue. Black markets are probably thrilled across the board.
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How on earth did we find ourselves not making our own boom boom sticks. This is America for fucks sake.
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Real opportunity for big gun to take over
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Freedom ain't free
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Tariff don't like it...
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“They will have to pry them from by bloodied stump of a hand”
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Product Value Quantity (total) Quantity (China) Chinese Share Alternative sources
Alarm clocks $50 million 11.49 million 11.43 million 99% Taiwan
Battery-powered sex toys $450 million 45.0 million 43.6 million 97% Korea, Germany
Baby strollers $392 million 5.68 million 5.45 million 96% Vietnam
Microwave ovens $1.40 billion 19.7 million 18.5 million 95% Malaysia, Thailand
Hair dryers $406 million 23.8 million 20.9 million 88% Cambodia
Clarinets $35 million 96,200 66,200 67% Indonesia
Blenders & juicers $744 million 45.0 million 38.4 million 85% Mexico
Toothbrushes $289 million 1.24 billion 755 million 61% Germany, Vietnam
Hammers $111 million 21.15 million 10.30 million 49% Mexico
Ball-point pens $481 million 2.75 billion 1.28 billion 47% Japan, Mexico
Vacuum cleaners $2.98 billion 63.6 million 22.2 million 35% Vietnam
Razors $482 million 1.47 billion 210 million 14% Mexico, Greece
https://www.progressivepolicy.org/alarm-clocks-baby-strollers-battery-powered-sex-toys-and-thermos-bottles-may-vanish-from-american-stores-by-the-end-of-may/
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sex toy backup being Germany made me LOL
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sex toy backup being Germany made me LOL
can u imaj the dependability and sleek design of a Rowenta vibrator
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Good news. Blueberries were down to $3/pint this past weekend. We're going to be okay.