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General Discussion => Essentially Flyertalk => Topic started by: chum1 on February 12, 2025, 10:16:51 PM
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1% chance :ohno:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/01/29/nasa-shares-observations-of-recently-identified-near-earth-asteroid/
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it's fine
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:cop lights: :cop lights: :cop lights: :cop lights: :cop lights:
UPDATE: Up to 2.3% chance
:cop lights: :cop lights: :cop lights: :cop lights: :cop lights:
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"Impact Risk Corridor"
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/2024_YR4_risk_corridor.png)
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"Impact Risk Corridor"
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/2024_YR4_risk_corridor.png)
WHEW!
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this could be a shot in the arm to the India space agency! They have a pretty good one.
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it's fine
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We got a bit before things get weird.
NASA and other global space agencies, such as ESA, JAXA, and CNSA, assess asteroid impact probabilities based on a risk scale, primarily the Torino Scale and Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale. The exact probability threshold at which they take direct action depends on various factors, including the asteroid’s size, time until impact, and potential damage.
Typical Response Thresholds
1. Below 1% (0.01 to 1%)
• Routine tracking and monitoring by agencies like NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC).
• If the asteroid is large (over 100 meters in diameter) and impact is projected within the next century, it remains on watchlists.
2. 1% to 10%
• Heightened monitoring and detailed simulations of impact scenarios.
• Astronomers work to refine orbital calculations with additional observations.
• If impact is projected within a few decades, early discussions about mitigation (such as kinetic impactors or gravity tractors) begin.
3. Above 10%
• Formal mission planning begins.
• Government agencies and space programs discuss deflection strategies, such as sending a spacecraft to nudge the asteroid (e.g., DART-style kinetic impactor) or using a nuclear device if necessary.
• Emergency response plans for potential impact sites are developed.
4. Near 100% (Certain impact)
• If detected years in advance, space agencies would execute an active deflection mission.
• If detected with little time remaining (months or less), governments focus on disaster preparedness, evacuations, and impact mitigation strategies.
Historical Reference: NASA’s DART Mission
The DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission in 2022 successfully altered the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, demonstrating kinetic impactor technology as a viable planetary defense method. While Dimorphos was not a threat, this mission validated that space agencies are prepared to act if needed.
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NASA? I thought we ditched those losers so we could fund Space X?
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NASA? I thought we ditched those losers so we could fund Space X?
Well, before there was SpaceX, there was the United launch alliance, which is mostly Boeing and a little bit of Lockheed Martin and a few other others.
And for as long as you thought it was just NASA it was actually those guys in the background building everything and they’ve made a rough ridin' fortune, but they’ve lost a lot of business to SpaceX and soon to blue origin and rocket lab. All of those are doing the job at a of fraction of the cost of united launch alliance.
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Don’t Look Up, asteroid jobs, etc.
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it's fine
Yup, watched a good video on it, pretty low in the worry index
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Opportunity to throw the greatest party the world ever saw
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https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/LIRCQP8J2A
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Lunar distance of 3.75.
We need to rename that rock something woke to get the right attention.
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Lunar distance of 3.75.
We need to rename that rock something woke to get the right attention.
asteroid YR4 aka chili beans
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How much damage does a 300ft asteroid cause, let's say, if it lands in the ocean.
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How much damage does a 300ft asteroid cause, let's say, if it lands in the ocean.
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSgDHYkaHBFY-sFUQP_FIqTgvmXHT-6bpj-0A&s)
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maybe this is the end that we all hoped for
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Lands at halftime of the big 12 conference championship game with us up by 7.
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Lands at halftime of the big 12 conference championship game with us up by 7.
It's supposed to be December 22nd per that reddit thread. So more like us in the first round of the playoffs as an undefeated juggernaut.
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Lands at halftime of the big 12 conference championship game with us up by 7.
It's supposed to be December 22nd per that reddit thread. So more like us in the first round of the playoffs as an undefeated juggernaut.
Looks like the Cats need to win the Natty the year before just to be on the safe side.
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Hopefully we get some sweet footage of when this thing lands.
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Hopefully we get some sweet footage of when this thing lands.
it'll be normal footage
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I dare that fuckin asteroid to even try. Pussy
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I dare that fuckin asteroid to even try. Pussy
I guarantee you it won't. I'll bet any one of you $5k it doesn't impact earth. All takers welcome.
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which reminds me of one of my favorite investing/business type quotes. art cashin famously said "never bet on the end of the world, it only happens once" and I tell that to people who bring up wild "what ifs" in my business all the time. Brother, we've got bigger problems if that rough ridin' nonsense happens. but until then let's make some fuckin' money.
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It would be pretty hilarious if that DART mission unwittingly set in motion a chain of events that ultimately resulted in earth getting annihilated by an asteroid that otherwise would not have fw earth
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which reminds me of one of my favorite investing/business type quotes. art cashin famously said "never bet on the end of the world, it only happens once" and I tell that to people who bring up wild "what ifs" in my business all the time. Brother, we've got bigger problems if that rough ridin' nonsense happens. but until then let's make some fuckin' money.
This isn't a world ender. On the 2% chance it lands, it probably hits the ocean and maybe causes a small tsunami.
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which reminds me of one of my favorite investing/business type quotes. art cashin famously said "never bet on the end of the world, it only happens once" and I tell that to people who bring up wild "what ifs" in my business all the time. Brother, we've got bigger problems if that rough ridin' nonsense happens. but until then let's make some fuckin' money.
This isn't a world ender. On the 2% chance it lands, it probably hits the ocean and maybe causes a small tsunami.
why are we even talking about this little pebble that sucks then?
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It would be the size of an old timey nuclear bomb explosion. Disastrous for a given city, but not for more than one city.
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Besides, this rough ridin' thing is hitting the southern hemisphere.
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It would be pretty cool if it landed like right in the middle of the Sahara desert.
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I think that should be the odds, is not only if it lands, but where. I'm sure Vegas will have props on it
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Besides, this rough ridin' thing is hitting the southern hemisphere.
is chum's map wrong?
"Impact Risk Corridor"
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/2024_YR4_risk_corridor.png)
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which reminds me of one of my favorite investing/business type quotes. art cashin famously said "never bet on the end of the world, it only happens once" and I tell that to people who bring up wild "what ifs" in my business all the time. Brother, we've got bigger problems if that rough ridin' nonsense happens. but until then let's make some fuckin' money.
This isn't a world ender. On the 2% chance it lands, it probably hits the ocean and maybe causes a small tsunami.
why are we even talking about this little pebble that sucks then?
so we can laugh at this pud space sand that's even trying to step to us?
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Maybe the Impact Risk Corridor is everything above the red line and everything below the red line. There isn't a key.
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It’s the red line, but I guess I overly attributed southernness to the red line. It’s still very southy, relative to the areas on my asteroid impact nervousness zone.
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i just assumed that red line kinda represented like the "runway" of where it would hit. like imagine a 50 or so mile wide corridor and this baby is gunna land somewhere in that corridor
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The 1/42 chance to hit us would be a pretty nice nod to Douglas Adams if this thing were going to destroy us all, though.
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3.1% now!
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We're so mumped
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Imagine this thing hitting a sporting event. All those people who say they're rooting for the asteroid are finally going to win!
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:dunno:
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India’s space agency is going to rise to the occasion. Those guys are pretty good.
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Imagine this thing hitting a sporting event. All those people who say they're rooting for the asteroid are finally going to win!
Bill was googling this at half last night.
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India’s space agency is going to rise to the occasion. Those guys are pretty good.
This is the exact type of thing SpaceX, NASA, and any other space company receiving govt funds should be focusing on, imo. You want to help preserve humanity, learn to detect and resolve space rocks. Also, we should quit rough ridin' up the planet.
It will be/would be infinitely easier than geo engineering an entire rough ridin' planet without an atmosphere.
The tech development to accomplish something like this would be amazingly useful.
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we already successfully diverted an asteroid in 2022.
what are the chances this thing hits in the middle of the atlantic and doesn't harm anyone? i want that because i bet it would still be fn sick
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we already successfully diverted an asteroid in 2022.
what are the chances this thing hits in the middle of the atlantic and doesn't harm anyone? i want that because i bet it would still be fn sick
(https://www.groovehq.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/united-airlines-entered-1.gif)