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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Jerome Tang Coaches Kansas State Basketball => Topic started by: j rake on January 03, 2019, 12:48:44 PM
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the last time oscar's k-state team was #25 or better in kenpom's ratings in league play was...never. literally never. k-state has started as high as #15 (this year) and #19 (oscar's first, frank's players), and they've started as low as 109th (2015). but whether they improve or get worse or stay roughly the same, k-state is never a top-25 level team once conference play begins and they don't rise to that level by the time the season ends. never, ever. not once in seven years, including this year.
largely, k-state has been about a mid-40s level program. they've been better, and they've been worse. but mostly, they've been in the range of their seven-season average of #46.
here are the top 25 finishes in kenpom the last six years by Big 12 teams since oscar took the k-state job:
Kansas (6)*
Oklahoma St (3)
Iowa St (4)*
West Virginia (4)
Baylor (3)
Oklahoma (2)
Texas Tech (1)*
TCU (1)*
Texas (1)
Kansas St (0)
*currently a top-25 level team.
two of the three teams above that have just one top-25 finish are likely to have a second this year, and should be on solid footing going forward. and all the teams that finished with just one or two top 25s (including texas) have at least spent some time at that rating mid-season. but again, not k-state. not even for a day. oscar has never coached a top-25 level team at any point after january his entire tenure. he didn't do it his last year at illinois either.
i think a very reasonable argument can be made that k-state is the worst program in the conference.
credit to last year's team, they got hot at the right time. but they were never a top-25 level team, even at their very best, and if not for winning the ncaa tourney lottery (UMBC instead of UVa) and 3-pt variancing kentucky to death, last year was on the verge of being very forgettable just as this year will soon be.
the ncaa tourney makes rock stars out of ordinary teams. k-state was ordinary last year and they are ordinary this year. and they will be ordinary forever. because this team, this coach, these players, this athletic dept, this university, this town, is ordinary. and the more oscar coaches, the further they will fall, from an avg rating of #46 to #56 to #66. and when that happens, Phillips 66 will call and say, "hey, we're looking to do an ad deal and we'd love to sponsor the 66th best team in the land! could be good for branding!" and by the time gene inks the deal, k-state will already have fallen to #75, then to #100, and the offer will be off the table. and then k-state will lose to tulsa again.
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You're not wrong, JRake
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He’s a SLTH, you don’t need 10 paragraphs to articulate that.
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This has convinced me that we should definitely keep oscar.
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He’s a gem
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I enjoy reading jrake's posts and am glad he is posting again.
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my goodness jrake, I think you're right.
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it's seriously so sad to see what k-state has become.
2011 and 2012 were the glory years of k-state athletics. i don't think it will ever get as good as that.
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good call j rake
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oh well, at least we still have k-state 2025. :Woot:
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Most j rake posts are way too long to read, so I just assume based on everyone else’s reaction to judge them. They have been getting tremendous reviews so I decided to finally read a long one. Wow, I now understand what everyone is raving about. Great stuff j rake! :thumbs:
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Has anyone been keeping track of the being-kenpom-ranked-during-conference-season metric before now? This sorta looks like an extremely elaborate continuation of our practice of moving the bar for oscar year after year, which is pretty lol.
A team with 40s-ish rankings should be a pretty good bet to make the tournament. Making the tournament is good.
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On Jan 13, the domain firebrucewebernow.com will become available I hear. The owner is NOT renewing.
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i read his post in mena suvari's voice, i think that's how he meant it?
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j rake is a treasure. Great post.
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what i despise is that they revel in their ordinariness.
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the ncaa tourney makes rock stars out of ordinary teams.
NOPE. DO NOT WANT.
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Best case scenario is to be kenpom ranked throughout the entire conference season and then not make the tournament. It's like peak unordinariness.
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Seems to me that striving for perfect ordinariness is the Mission Statement of the KSU.
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Best case scenario is to be kenpom ranked throughout the entire conference season and then not make the tournament. It's like peak unordinariness.
:love:
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lol at these regular persons
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Has anyone been keeping track of the being-kenpom-ranked-during-conference-season metric before now? This sorta looks like an extremely elaborate continuation of our practice of moving the bar for oscar year after year, which is pretty lol.
A team with 40s-ish rankings should be a pretty good bet to make the tournament. Making the tournament is good.
kenpom started allowing you to see how a team is rated on a game-by-game basis in recent years (he has this data as far back as the 2010-11 season). a team's overall rating is partly tethered to what kenpom rates you in the preseason. so it generally takes a decent sample of games until you begin to get a clear picture of a team's quality. certainly, your rating in games 20-thru-30 will be much more meaningful than games 1-thru-10.
i agree that if you can be a top-40 level team consistently, year after year, then that is perfectly fine. but oscar hasn't been that (he's had teams rated in the mid-50s and low 80s already), and he has yet to demonstrate any serious upside. it's really hard to not have at least ONE top-25 level team across seven years. if not this year, with the alleged best team returning since the martin years, then when?
the obvious rebuttal is to point to last year and say that as long as you make the tourney, anything can happen. which is true! but literally 99 times out of 100, if you're an 8 or 9 seed, you ain't drawing the 16 seed; and your odds of advancing to the Sweet 16 are <20% when you don't.
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lol at these regular persons
i can't believe how long i was a regular person for. i was literally wearing carpenter style jeans at age 25. :frown:
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:lol:
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Top 40 isn't bad.
04 grad.
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We’re so lucky to have jrake
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the obvious rebuttal is to point to last year and say that as long as you make the tourney, anything can happen. which is true! but literally 99 times out of 100, if you're an 8 or 9 seed, you ain't drawing the 16 seed; and your odds of advancing to the Sweet 16 are <20% when you don't.
My math (admittedly not good) says that since we expanded to 64 teams in '85, there have been 132 1 seeds (33 * 4). So 1 time out of 132. Right? It was THE luckiest break for an 8/9 seed in the history of the NCAA.
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QUESTION: If you give oscar "credit" for an elite 8 run, which included the luckiest second round draw in the history of the NCAA tournament (indisputable), then don't you have to refrain from giving him a free pass on this year do to the unluckiness of injuries?
Surely you have to refrain from giving him a free pass, right?
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QUESTION: If you give oscar "credit" for an elite 8 run, which included the luckiest second round draw in the history of the NCAA tournament (indisputable), then don't you have to refrain from giving him a free pass on this year do to the unluckiness of injuries?
Surely you have to refrain from giving him a free pass, right?
Only if you have integrity, Pete.
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QUESTION: If you give oscar "credit" for an elite 8 run, which included the luckiest second round draw in the history of the NCAA tournament (indisputable), then don't you have to refrain from giving him a free pass on this year do to the unluckiness of injuries?
Surely you have to refrain from giving him a free pass, right?
oscar already used up his 'free pass' in the 2014 and 2015 seasons when he recruited a bunch of losers and team cancers and had to essentially start over. which is obviously fine. it happens to almost all coaches at some point. it even happened to huggins at wvu when they missed the tourney back to back years after huggins brought in a bunch of guys he literally hated.
i don't think k-state will ever be a consistent, year after year, top-25 level program. but in every four-year period, i think it's totally reasonable to expect them to have one top-40 level team (on the bubble), one top-25 level team (ncaa tourney), a top-10 team that could make a deep tourney run (if everything goes right), and then perhaps a bit of a rebuilding year (hello, NIT). those are achievable expectations and should be the minimum standard for every big 12 team, including tcu and texas tech.
oscar hasn't really demonstrated that upside since those first three years at Illinois.
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k-state is ordinarily shitty rake, you downgrade
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i just think it's about time* to raise the standard.
*
:impatient:
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i just think it's about time* to raise the standard.
*
:impatient:
checkmate. it was time to not do that. rough rider.
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QUESTION: If you give oscar "credit" for an elite 8 run, which included the luckiest second round draw in the history of the NCAA tournament (indisputable), then don't you have to refrain from giving him a free pass on this year do to the unluckiness of injuries?
Surely you have to refrain from giving him a free pass, right?
oscar already used up his 'free pass' in the 2014 and 2015 seasons when he recruited a bunch of losers and team cancers and had to essentially start over. which is obviously fine. it happens to almost all coaches at some point. it even happened to huggins at wvu when they missed the tourney back to back years after huggins brought in a bunch of guys he literally hated.
i don't think k-state will ever be a consistent, year after year, top-25 level program. but in every four-year period, i think it's totally reasonable to expect them to have one top-40 level team (on the bubble), one top-25 level team (ncaa tourney), a top-10 team that could make a deep tourney run (if everything goes right), and then perhaps a bit of a rebuilding year (hello, NIT). those are achievable expectations and should be the minimum standard for every big 12 team, including tcu and texas tech.
oscar hasn't really demonstrated that upside since those first three years at Illinois.
Eddie Sutton at Oklahoma State has been my standard for KSU b-ball for a long time. We’ll likely never have the run of truly powerful teams Sutton had at the beginning of his run, but even his last 9 years or so on a loop would make for a pretty satisfying fan experience.
You’re on point again Jrake
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last 9 years or so on a loop would make for a pretty satisfying fan experience.
I'd say you're in luck.
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How’s this for ordinary Rakey-poo?
https://twitter.com/kstatembb/status/1083195857904779264?s=21
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lol sweet somersault.
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What is #3 about to do to him? :sdeek:
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1/26 update: still ordinary. :bawl:
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1/26 update: still ordinary. :bawl:
they seem to have a high standard deviation when it comes to performance. Like sometimes they're unpredictably good and other times unpredictably bad instead of predictably average. could just be that they're the only team I follow (and I barely follow them)
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second straight year oscar has put a clown suit on me.
last year i posted publicly that he looked like he needed a break. k-state promptly won four straight, eeked its way into the tourney and made the elite 8.
this year, i called k-state ordinary and pointed out that oscar basically has never coached a top-25 level team in league play. and as of right now, k-state is currently ... 25th in KP (and obviously alone in 1st place in Big 12).
darn! :angry:
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owning up to it. :thumbsup:
the brucewagon welcomes you. for everyone else gtfo.
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second straight year oscar has put a clown suit on me.
last year i posted publicly that he looked like he needed a break. k-state promptly won four straight, eeked its way into the tourney and made the elite 8.
this year, i called k-state ordinary and pointed out that oscar basically has never coached a top-25 level team in league play. and as of right now, k-state is currently ... 25th in KP (and obviously alone in 1st place in Big 12).
darn! :angry:
Next year will be your year. No doubt about it.
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well, they were a top 25 kenpom team for about three hours, anyway. :frown:
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well, they were a top 25 kenpom team for about three hours, anyway. :frown:
Could be a good week to pad the efficiency stats if we play it right.
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k-state only fell one spot, to 26th, in the KP ratings after the loss to KU.
put another way, oscar's best team in seven years is just one spot behind...Wofford!
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Yeah we are seeing the ceiling.
BUT
It's better than the ceiling being hoping for a bubble spot.
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I can speak for a number of people in saying that we will take it.
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I can speak for a number of people in saying that we will take it.
you'll take it today. and so will a majority of the fanbase. but next year, when the team is languishing near the middle or bottom of the standings, the fanbase will want oscar fired. down years are unacceptable in college sports. "we deserve better..." they will say, even though the teams that will pass k-state in the standings next year - oklahoma, west virginia - have fanbases currently saying the exact same thing.
i give oscar a solid B for his tenure. his biggest drawback for me is his lacking upside, because great programs will make the tournament in down years and oscar's probably won't. but on the whole, he is fine. he is basically the big 12's version of fran mccaffery and iowa. the only difference is that mccaffery - despite an up-and-down tenure that has seen less upside than oscar's - never finds himself on the hot seat whereas it has seemed like oscar has lived on it. i think the reason is obvious: iowa's fanbase views mccaffery as super competent and basketball savvy; wheras k-state fans view oscar as a stooge.
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you are right, if we don't win the confy this year, go to the elite 8 and are terrible next year. I want oscar fired.
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I can speak for a number of people in saying that we will take it.
you'll take it today. and so will a majority of the fanbase. but next year, when the team is languishing near the middle or bottom of the standings, the fanbase will want oscar fired. down years are unacceptable in college sports. "we deserve better..." they will say, even though the teams that will pass k-state in the standings next year - oklahoma, west virginia - have fanbases currently saying the exact same thing.
i give oscar a solid B for his tenure. his biggest drawback for me is his lacking upside, because great programs will make the tournament in down years and oscar's probably won't. but on the whole, he is fine. he is basically the big 12's version of fran mccaffery and iowa. the only difference is that mccaffery - despite an up-and-down tenure that has seen less upside than oscar's - never finds himself on the hot seat whereas it has seemed like oscar has lived on it. i think the reason is obvious: iowa's fanbase views mccaffery as super competent and basketball savvy; wheras k-state fans view oscar as a stooge.
This is very true. If we have a down year next year and miss the tournament completely, oscar's seat will be very hot.
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Lamenting kenpom rankings or worrying about next year's record is not how I'm choosing to enjoy the ride from the driver's seat. But it's good to know that the option is there!
:driving:
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I mean there is a fundamental piece of me that likes the cycle of firing + hiring coaches.
There's a million dollar video game idea there.
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I care less about the general trajectory now that we might have chance at being good at football again.
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I care less about the general trajectory now that we might have chance at being good at football again.
I believe you the social media coverage of the football has a positive trajectory
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I can speak for a number of people in saying that we will take it.
you'll take it today. and so will a majority of the fanbase. but next year, when the team is languishing near the middle or bottom of the standings, the fanbase will want oscar fired. down years are unacceptable in college sports. "we deserve better..." they will say, even though the teams that will pass k-state in the standings next year - oklahoma, west virginia - have fanbases currently saying the exact same thing.
i give oscar a solid B for his tenure. his biggest drawback for me is his lacking upside, because great programs will make the tournament in down years and oscar's probably won't. but on the whole, he is fine. he is basically the big 12's version of fran mccaffery and iowa. the only difference is that mccaffery - despite an up-and-down tenure that has seen less upside than oscar's - never finds himself on the hot seat whereas it has seemed like oscar has lived on it. i think the reason is obvious: iowa's fanbase views mccaffery as super competent and basketball savvy; wheras k-state fans view oscar as a stooge.
This is very true. If we have a down year next year and miss the tournament completely, oscar's seat will be very hot.
LOL, no it won't. They'll be some pissed people, no doubt, not enough to come close to heating up any seat, this ain't 2014.
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Agree with MIR on this one.
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EVERYONE knows there will be a HUUUUUUUGE dropoff. Anything over 9th in the league is gravy.
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EVERYONE knows there will be a HUUUUUUUGE dropoff. Anything over 9th in the league is gravy.
Maybe
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EVERYONE knows there will be a HUUUUUUUGE dropoff. Anything over 9th in the league is gravy.
Why is this acceptable? Rebuilding is for pussies.
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EVERYONE knows there will be a HUUUUUUUGE dropoff. Anything over 9th in the league is gravy.
Why is this acceptable? Rebuilding is for pussies.
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lol. Chingon come get your mans.
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EVERYONE knows there will be a HUUUUUUUGE dropoff. Anything over 9th in the league is gravy.
Why is this acceptable? Rebuilding is for pussies.
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lol. Chingon come get your mans.
Why settle for 2nd when 9th is available?
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EVERYONE knows there will be a HUUUUUUUGE dropoff. Anything over 9th in the league is gravy.
That doesn't matter. Watching a 9th place team still sucks, and recent success will make it suck all the more.
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I still think we'll be a bubble team next year. lol at him being on the hot seat next year. Especially if he finishes this thing off in the next two games for at least a share.
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I still think we'll be a bubble team next year. lol at him being on the hot seat next year. Especially if he finishes this thing off in the next two games for at least a share.
Yea I think we will be on the bubble.
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oscar is guaranteed 3 more years barring an absolute catastrophe.
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I can't take seriously anyone who thinks that oscar has ever been or ever will be on the hot seat here. It's just an absolute fairy tale.
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I feel like if we botch the four year shuffle described by jrake, and then miss the tourney another year after that there will be a hot seat. so basically if we miss the tourney 5 times in a tow the seat will probably be pretty warm.
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i think we are going to be better next year than we are this year. why? because our team is evolving. sure we lose 3 very important seniors but what happens is that the next guy in line stands up and gets his shot at glory. when you get your shot at glory, you have to take it. oscar will have our entire team taking shots at glory next season. it will be amazing. imagine all of the glory we will have. it will be incredible. the glory will lead us to even more glory. why? glory is a self-compounding element of basketball.
oscar's seat will be hot, to be sure, but it will because so many AD's will be staring at it wanting to cornhole him with fist loads of american greenbacks.
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we will put michigancats hypothesis that you don’t need good bigs to be good at college basketball to the ultimate test next year. Also please consider SNW has a God’s Gift tat on his bicep.
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great points 'clams. if marquette makes another run at him, i'm not sure he'll be able to say no.
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If 'sclams is correct, oscar's pocketbook gon be swole af
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he is basically the big 12's version of fran mccaffery and iowa. the only difference is that mccaffery - despite an up-and-down tenure that has seen less upside than oscar's - never finds himself on the hot seat whereas it has seemed like oscar has lived on it. i think the reason is obvious: iowa's fanbase views mccaffery as super competent and basketball savvy; wheras k-state fans view oscar as a stooge.
McCaffery was a successful mid major coach at Siena replacing Licklitter who was trying to burn Iowa to the ground.
oscar was just fired and replacing a wildly popular coach who most feel was forced out.
4 of Fran's 8 season he was #70 or worse in kenpom. oscar was that bad once.
Fran had 3 NCAAs in his first 8 years compared to oscar's 4 in 6 years.
Other than that, they are nearly identical.
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also Weber did not yell "You cheating m-----f-----! You're a f---ing disgrace!" at an official after his last game
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he is basically the big 12's version of fran mccaffery and iowa. the only difference is that mccaffery - despite an up-and-down tenure that has seen less upside than oscar's - never finds himself on the hot seat whereas it has seemed like oscar has lived on it. i think the reason is obvious: iowa's fanbase views mccaffery as super competent and basketball savvy; wheras k-state fans view oscar as a stooge.
McCaffery was a successful mid major coach at Siena replacing Licklitter who was trying to burn Iowa to the ground.
oscar was just fired and replacing a wildly popular coach who most feel was forced out.
4 of Fran's 8 season he was #70 or worse in kenpom. oscar was that bad once.
Fran had 3 NCAAs in his first 8 years compared to oscar's 4 in 6 years.
Other than that, they are nearly identical.
Iowa has never been higher than a 3 way the for third in the conference under Fran, oscar is about to win his second conference championship. K-State fans are much more comfortable with oscar than Iowa fans are with Fran, probably because oscar doesn't make a habit of calling referees cheating motherfuckers after he loses games.
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MIR why do you want to jinx our championship season so bad?
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we will put michigancats hypothesis that you don’t need good bigs to be good at college basketball to the ultimate test next year. Also please consider SNW has a God’s Gift tat on his bicep.
Joke's on you, our guards will suck, too
Also 8th in the B12 is basically a bubble team
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Yeah, 7-8 are the B12 bubble teams every year. We are such an elite hoops confy.
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This kid is going to knock your socks off next year, rusty.
https://247sports.com/player/dajuan-gordon-46055176/
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This kid is going to knock your socks off next year, rusty.
https://247sports.com/player/dajuan-gordon-46055176/
cool but I don't know if you caught where I said everyone has low expectations
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MIR why do you want to jinx our championship season so bad?
My mom said I was 4 when I stopped believing in Santa Claus.
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And you’ve been bitter ever since and want to ruin everything magical for others?
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MIR why do you want to jinx our championship season so bad?
My mom said I was 4 when I stopped believing in Santa Claus.
wow. sc doesn't even become marginal until age 7.
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MIR why do you want to jinx our championship season so bad?
My mom said I was 4 when I stopped believing in Santa Claus.
wow. sc doesn't even become marginal until age 7.
i think i was about 8 when i became an sc truther.
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ugh, still ordinary. :angry:
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To be fair I didn’t watch any Bruceketball at all this year but who the eff wanted us ranked? Yikes.
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To be fair I didn’t watch any Bruceketball at all this year but who the eff wanted us ranked? Yikes.
Lol, K-State wins that game by double digits with the same team a month ago.
Barry was different the last few weeks, and of course this is a completely different team without Dean.
Probably top 15-20 when both are healthy.
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Football school
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Football school
Hick* school
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To be fair I didn’t watch any Bruceketball at all this year but who the eff wanted us ranked? Yikes.
Lol, K-State wins that game by double digits with the same team a month ago.
Barry was different the last few weeks, and of course this is a completely different team without Dean.
Probably top 15-20 when both are healthy.
shows you the overall lack of talent on the roster when missing 1 player completely changes the team. it is not a talented roster. Weber doesn't appear capable of attracting enough talent to be consistently good. only good enough to be pretty good every 4-5 years when we are loaded up with seniors.
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Isn't a 4 seed losing to a 13 seed pretty unordinary?
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Isn't a 4 seed losing to a 13 seed pretty unordinary?
Not if the 4 seed is a oscar coached Kat team
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Man, being a K-State fan is so difficult.
I’m pissed at oscar, Gene Taylor, Richard Myers, the faculty, the staff, the color purple, the town of Manhattan and pretty much most of Riley County.
I roughriding knew in my heart oscar would roughriding Fitz this up, and he did so in the most Briucey way possible.
And I hate, HATE myself for caring about basketball again, and believing we had turned the corner.
But we’re same ol K-State.
Pass the Tylenol.
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Isn't a 4 seed losing to a 13 seed pretty unordinary?
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1109186398425370625
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the ncaa tourney makes rock stars out of ordinary teams.
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I've concluded that all teams are ordinary.
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Man, being a K-State fan is so difficult.
I’m pissed at oscar, Gene Taylor, Richard Myers, the faculty, the staff, the color purple, the town of Manhattan and pretty much most of Riley County.
I roughriding knew in my heart oscar would roughriding Fitz this up, and he did so in the most Briucey way possible.
And I hate, HATE myself for caring about basketball again, and believing we had turned the corner.
But we’re same ol K-State.
Pass the Tylenol.
The eff?
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Man, being a K-State fan is so difficult.
I’m pissed at oscar, Gene Taylor, Richard Myers, the faculty, the staff, the color purple, the town of Manhattan and pretty much most of Riley County.
I roughriding knew in my heart oscar would roughriding Fitz this up, and he did so in the most Briucey way possible.
And I hate, HATE myself for caring about basketball again, and believing we had turned the corner.
But we’re same ol K-State.
Pass the Tylenol.
The eff?
Meh, Chevy Chase said it after a rant. it’s a Christmas vacation reference. Wrong timing.
But, while I’m at it, screw Currie and Schultz, too.
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To be fair I didn’t watch any Bruceketball at all this year but who the eff wanted us ranked? Yikes.
Lol, K-State wins that game by double digits with the same team a month ago.
Barry was different the last few weeks, and of course this is a completely different team without Dean.
Probably top 15-20 when both are healthy.
shows you the overall lack of talent on the roster when missing 1 player completely changes the team. it is not a talented roster. Weber doesn't appear capable of attracting enough talent to be consistently good. only good enough to be pretty good every 4-5 years when we are loaded up with seniors.
The eff are you talking about? Missing a 4 year starter, back to back first team all conference player would derail every single team in college basketball. KU lost the conference without Azbikue. Did you see Duke without Zion? That team has a minimum of 5 NBA players on it and they were pedestrian without Zion. You managed to have a dumber post than Super PurpleCat's post, congratulations.