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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: star seed 7 on August 09, 2018, 02:30:50 PM
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Itt we predict the total seat gains/losses from the 2018 midterms so we can look back and lol in a few months. Feel free to predict any race at any level!
I'll start out with my own.
D +1 in the senate
D +42 in the house
All red in KS
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it'll end up about the same
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r +1 senate
d +25 house
nunes wins ca22 by 6, cruz wins tx by 5.
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Trump is going to create and save a ton of seats guys
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Good post
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Trump somehow declares a big victory or says something about going undefeated despite Republicans losing the House majority.
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I don’t see any reason for the crats to pick up seats, unless you are just counting on historical mid-term trends.
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Put some numbers out there dorks
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It will go about as well for the Democrats as all these special elections have gone, and they'll be so proud of their losing efforts (#moralvictory).
I have related question: do the libtards really think the dems are going to impeach trump if the house shifts?
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He really can’t post in a thread without mentioning trump, it’s amaze.
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538's house model is unveiled. initial forecast is d +35.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
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If the election were held today, I can confidently say with 100% certainty that Dems would pick up 17 seats in the house and GOP would pick up 2 in the senate. Kansas would stay all red (plus a KK win). Anything can change in the next few months, but my prediction of what would happen today is absolutely correct.
Trump is going to campaign like a Tasmanian Devil the next few weeks because (a) he loves it, and (b) it helps the candidates.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkzWTevU8AAV7ao.jpg)
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https://twitter.com/nick_d_laughlin/status/1031318580204392448
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https://twitter.com/JoshuaGreen/status/1041998929062187009
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r +1 senate
d +25 house
nunes wins ca22 by 6, cruz wins tx by 5.
i'm updating my prediction to:
d +0 senate
d +35 house
nunes wins by 4, cruz by 3.
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Recent polling (thanks, Ford/Feinstein!) shows the pubs picking up senate seats and pulling even in the house.
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Post your predictions fsd
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I think the pubs add a seat or two in the senate. The house goes somewhere around 50/50 (edge to the dems) and KK wins governor.
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I predict 538 will be wrong again
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I predict 538 will be wrong again
Amazing
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Hoping for a blue wave AND a red wave because that will make a PURPLE WAVE! #emaw #LRWTP #gocats
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Good pit post.
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Hoping for a blue wave AND a red wave because that will make a PURPLE WAVE! #emaw #LRWTP #gocats
yes!
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Snyder/Snyder 2018 ride the purple wave
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I like the bipartisanship that's going on in here. Feels good. :combofan: (ftp://:combofan:)
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Post your predictions pwood
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Post your predictions pwood
I think at least +1 in the Senate. I'm not quite sure yet on the House but I'll do some p-wood surveying and get back with you.
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Recent polling (thanks, Ford/Feinstein!) shows the pubs picking up senate seats and pulling even in the house.
well that's not true.
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I'd be shocked if Dems didn't win the house. I'd also be pretty surprised if Dems won the senate.
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current odds are about 20:80 in both. i'm not sure you should be surprised at a 1 in 5 event occurring. if they were independent events, which they obviously aren't, there'd be almost a 50% chance that at least one would go the other way.
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sys, what did you think of my purple wave post? :D
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you know what i think of you, 33.
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If the election were held today, I am 100% certain: GOP +3 in Senate (Pubs hold AZ, gain ND, and gain 2 out of MO, IN, and FL), and Dems +19 in House.
Biggest and perhaps only question is how accurately are pollsters predicting turnout. No question that Dem base is highly energized, but Dems are also generally quite pathetic in midterm elections. So how much does one offset the other? And how much has recent increase in GOP motivation (thanks Shumer/Feinstein!) been factored in? I have a creeping suspicion that most pollsters are slightly over-estimating Dem turnout.
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1052232865528901632
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So the Soros paid protestor thing IS true!
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The Nate Silver stuff is so nerdy.
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The news networks are treating this like it's a presidential election. May have to fire up a new server to store the POTENTIAL melting down about Trump happenings.
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Uh, ok lol
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Uh, ok lol
https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/news-networks-midterms-coverage-1202980769/
They're gonna completely lose their minds if this doesn't swing the way the majority of them want it to . . . always glad to keep you up to speed LibBot7.
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The news networks are treating this like it's a presidential election. May have to fire up a new server to store the POTENTIAL melting down about Trump happenings.
I mean, you didn't think the server upgrades from a week or two back were about the upcoming Farmageddon, did you?
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Uh, ok dax, lol
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Uh, ok dax, lol
Nobody likes a LibDerp . . . LibDerp7
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Dax, you're the one irate that the news is reporting that people in general are more interested in the midterms than normal (a completely true statement).
Media :curse:
Lol, get a grip buddy
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Why would I be irate about the potential for a fantastic night of watching yet another election meltdown?
Really weird take LibDerp7.
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r +1 senate
d +25 house
nunes wins ca22 by 6, cruz wins tx by 5.
i'm updating my prediction to:
d +0 senate
d +35 house
nunes wins by 4, cruz by 3.
r +1 senate
d +38 house
nunes plus 5, cruz plus 6.
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Predictions, not libtard wet dreams, sysgender
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Does LibBot Nation think that Claire McCaskill's "I'm not a crazy Democrat" platform will propel her over the finish line?
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She's just the worst.
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Wrong thread guys :shy:
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What's your blue wave/red wave predictions dax? For some reason none of the trump people will give theirs, it's v odd.
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What's your blue wave/red wave predictions dax? For some reason none of the trump people will give theirs, it's v odd.
I don't think about it very much LibDerp7, I'm just looking forward to the great BBS'ing either way.
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Should be fun :D
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Should be fun :D
The possibility of watching the insane left attempt to investigate their insane takes and theories on everything with an insane base who breathlessly believes every little thing spewed forth that's Anti-Trump is something that I can really get behind.
But then there's the thermonuclear option that's going to be invoked if Trump stays protected.
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Well said dax
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Dax is such a good-hearted person.
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It's gonna be great, and chum1, no doubt you're gonna be one of the LibBots in residence that's going to provide some fantastic BBS'ing to :lol: at.
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1056777203290161153
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you can see that just in kansas, with ks 2 and ks 3 both competitive.
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Cliffsnotes: dorkstore silver has to massage his models so he would have a better excuse for his poor modelling than in 16
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Does LibBot Nation think that Claire McCaskill's "I'm not a crazy Democrat" platform will propel her over the finish line?
She wouldn't do that
https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1057062622376402944?s=19
:lol:
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This article tells you pretty much all you need to know about the "known unknowns" a week before the election (and really, right through election day). https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/30/uncertainties_loom_as_midterms_enter_final_stretch.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/30/uncertainties_loom_as_midterms_enter_final_stretch.html)
The most interesting and, I think important, part of Trende's analysis is this: The RCP polling aggregates currently predict Dems will net approximately 11 seats among the races leaning one way or another, with an additional 30 races rated as "toss ups." But it would be foolish to assume that "toss up" means the statistical equivalent of a coin flip, and that these races will break roughly 50/50. They are more likely to break significantly one direction or the other.
And the truth is, none of us have any idea. Which is what makes predictions like Nate Silver's 83.7% so absurd. It's meaningless. If he's wrong, he'll just shrug and say "16.3%".
Trende thinks the toss ups are more likely to break for the Dems. I think they're more likely to break for the GOP. My sitting at a bar reasoning for this is (1) recent events, on net, seem to be favoring the GOP, and (2) scant data on early voting seems to be in line with the older, whiter demographic typical of midterms, which may indicate that pollsters are slightly overestimating the Dems' enthusiasm advantage in their sampling.
Elaborating a bit more on the first point, several recent issues have played to GOP strengths: the hot economy (highlighting GOP tax cuts and polling indicating higher trust in GOP on managing the economy), Kavanaugh smear blowback (highlighting the Dems' mob tactics and disregard for due process), and the caravans (highlighting Dems' weakness on immigration and American's desire for stronger border enforcement).
So we'll see. I think the Dems pick up 19 in the House and the GOP picks up 4 in the Senate. But I wouldn't be shocked if the Dems pick up 30 in the House. I would be shocked if the GOP picks up fewer than 2 Senate seats.
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Exciting stuff kdub :D
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This article tells you pretty much all you need to know about the "known unknowns" a week before the election (and really, right through election day). https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/30/uncertainties_loom_as_midterms_enter_final_stretch.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/30/uncertainties_loom_as_midterms_enter_final_stretch.html)
The most interesting and, I think important, part of Trende's analysis is this: The RCP polling aggregates currently predict Dems will net approximately 11 seats among the races leaning one way or another, with an additional 30 races rated as "toss ups." But it would be foolish to assume that "toss up" means the statistical equivalent of a coin flip, and that these races will break roughly 50/50. They are more likely to break significantly one direction or the other.
And the truth is, none of us have any idea. Which is what makes predictions like Nate Silver's 83.7% so absurd. It's meaningless. If he's wrong, he'll just shrug and say "16.3%".
Trende thinks the toss ups are more likely to break for the Dems. I think they're more likely to break for the GOP. My sitting at a bar reasoning for this is (1) recent events, on net, seem to be favoring the GOP, and (2) scant data on early voting seems to be in line with the older, whiter demographic typical of midterms, which may indicate that pollsters are slightly overestimating the Dems' enthusiasm advantage in their sampling.
Elaborating a bit more on the first point, several recent issues have played to GOP strengths: the hot economy (highlighting GOP tax cuts and polling indicating higher trust in GOP on managing the economy), Kavanaugh smear blowback (highlighting the Dems' mob tactics and disregard for due process), and the caravans (highlighting Dems' weakness on immigration and American's desire for stronger border enforcement).
So we'll see. I think the Dems pick up 19 in the House and the GOP picks up 4 in the Senate. But I wouldn't be shocked if the Dems pick up 30 in the House. I would be shocked if the GOP picks up fewer than 2 Senate seats.
good stuff
also thank you K-W's for being able to be a reasonable pub that hasn't gone full uncivil radical
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@sys
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057097823953567744
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turnout is crazy this year, i can't even imagine how hard it is to try and model it. pollsters are very good at their jobs though.
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Seems a little premature to be talking about the voter turnout this year, imho
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Seems a little premature to be talking about the voter turnout this year, imho
in the context of poll modelling, it'll be too late to talk about it by next week.
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Lol
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Yeah, no way that will be a subject of discussion in the context of modelling
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@sys
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057097823953567744
you think this is good news for libs libliblibliblibliblib, :lol:
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It's good news for Beto, I don't really draw any conclusions for anyone else
You guys are very sensitive about data, yikes
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@sys
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057097823953567744
you think this is good news for libs libliblibliblibliblib, :lol:
drawing 0 conclusions I would say that increased voter turnout is good for america in general
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It's good news for Beto, I don't really draw any conclusions for anyone else
You guys are very sensitive about data, yikes
If voters over 65 were already outvoting voters under 30 by 3 to 1 or more, I'd say it's bad news for Beto. I have no idea what normal ratio is, though.
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The increased turnout in general is good for him, unless you think people are rushing to vote for Ted cruz. The next tweet in the thread has Hispanics up 214%
It's still likely not enough for him to win though.
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Anything worth voting on up here?
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Anything worth voting on up here?
I used the address for century link
https://ballotpedia.org/Sample_Ballot_Lookup?utm_source=ballotpedia&utm_campaign=sample_ballot_frontpage#address=800+occidental+Ave+s+Seattle%2C+WA+98134&election=2018-11-06
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Anything worth voting on up here?
I used the address for century link
https://ballotpedia.org/Sample_Ballot_Lookup?utm_source=ballotpedia&utm_campaign=sample_ballot_frontpage#address=800+occidental+Ave+s+Seattle%2C+WA+98134&election=2018-11-06
I have the giant pamphlet already. I mean are there any that are close calls and for which who wins matters much?
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It's good news for Beto, I don't really draw any conclusions for anyone else
You guys are very sensitive about data, yikes
just
If voters over 65 were already outvoting voters under 30 by 3 to 1 or more, I'd say it's bad news for Beto. I have no idea what normal ratio is, though.
there are tons of ways it could be either good or bad for beto regardless of the ratio. i listen to the nv early vote and i look at the fl early vote (but trust it much much less). everywhere else it's just narrative (for now, until someone proves out a pattern).
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You guys have never been to Texas, have you?
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drawing 0 conclusions I would say that increased voter turnout is good for america in general
I’ve never understood this sentiment. How is it “good for America” to increase turnout among those that are presently too lazy, disengaged, or ignorant to bother to vote? Do we really want more people at the polls because they got a vote reminder from T-Swift or Kanye?
I’m not saying we should actively work to disenfranchise these dullards, but I’m also not saying we should go out of our way to get them to a ballot box.
Anyway, this is off topic so I’ll leave it there. I guess both sides think their voters are “smarter” - but damn both sides should at least be able to agree that there are already too many dumbasses voting.
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drawing 0 conclusions I would say that increased voter turnout is good for america in general
I’ve never understood this sentiment. How is it “good for America” to increase turnout among those that are presently too lazy, disengaged, or ignorant to bother to vote? Do we really want more people at the polls because they got a vote reminder from T-Swift or Kanye?
I’m not saying we should actively work to disenfranchise these dullards, but I’m also not saying we should go out of our way to get them to a ballot box.
Anyway, this is off topic so I’ll leave it there. I guess both sides think their voters are “smarter” - but damn both sides should at least be able to agree that there are already too many dumbasses voting.
Rich white land owning males should vote and everyone else can eff off is what I always say
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Back when America was great...
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But really I don’t completely disagree with KSUW. We should be focused on increasing information for voters just as much as increasing turnout. I think if you can do that, turnout will inevitably follow. It is currently very difficult to get information on most election races, which understandably makes people less interested unless they are dummies who just want to vote straight ticket.
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Bad news for the crowd who thinks fewer should vote.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1057611494223949824
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But really I don’t completely disagree with KSUW. We should be focused on increasing information for voters just as much as increasing turnout. I think if you can do that, turnout will inevitably follow. It is currently very difficult to get information on most election races, which understandably makes people less interested unless they are dummies who just want to vote straight ticket.
I think a lot of positions should be appointed instead of elected. No reason I should be voting on state treasurer, district attorney, or secretary of state.
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old people love voting. you take those positions and local elections and bond crap away from them and all they have to look forward to is getting the mail every day the second the mailman comes.
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But really I don’t completely disagree with KSUW. We should be focused on increasing information for voters just as much as increasing turnout. I think if you can do that, turnout will inevitably follow. It is currently very difficult to get information on most election races, which understandably makes people less interested unless they are dummies who just want to vote straight ticket.
It's not even about getting more information out, it's about getting accurate information out. Start by overturning Citizens United and outlawing superPACs.
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old people love voting. you take those positions and local elections and bond crap away from them and all they have to look forward to is getting the mail every day the second the mailman comes.
They still get to vote. It might only take them 20 minutes instead of 40 to adjust their glasses and think hard about each choice before choosing the republican, but they can still go to the coffee shop (McDonalds) afterward, talk about it with their friends, and give a good tongue lashing to the one dumbass at the shop who voted for a democrat on accident.
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I'm not gonna lie, when you consider that half of the population has an IQ under 100, I'm not sure greater participation is a positive.
I'm also pretty confident that, given how many new voters trump has engaged, increased turnout is not good for the left-o-whackadoos.
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Like, if you think increased voter turnout is good for libtards, you've probably never talked to a libtard. They'd lose a job (best day ever!) over casting a vote on some menial matter.
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I'm not gonna lie, when you consider that half of the population has an IQ under 100, I'm not sure greater participation is a positive.
I'm also pretty confident that, given how many new voters trump has engaged, increased turnout is not good for the left-o-whackadoos.
The new trump voters are the under 100 crowd, quite the pickle really.
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Anecdotally speaking, the nevertrump :runaway: sky is falling delusionatards are the same people walking around on some random Tuesday in april with an "I Voted" sticker proudly plastered to their stupid vest. These are the same people who were politically active (and be extension, insufferable dorks) in college.
On the other hand, the people I know that love trump have almost certainly never voted in their life, or very rarely vote.
It will be interesting to see how this turns out.
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I'm not gonna lie, when you consider that half of the population has an IQ under 100, I'm not sure greater participation is a positive.
I'm also pretty confident that, given how many new voters trump has engaged, increased turnout is not good for the left-o-whackadoos.
The new trump voters are the under 100 crowd, quite the pickle really.
The Republicans aren't the ones setting up registration tents in the country's shittiest neighborhoods, wetwillietard.
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I probably will see more 'I voted' posts on FB next week which is getting me real excited. You know, if I um, get on FB and stuff to see. :whistle1: (ftp://:whistle1:)
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Post your predictions pwood
I think at least +1 in the Senate. I'm not quite sure yet on the House but I'll do some p-wood surveying and get back with you.
:impatient:
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here's the latest on nv and fl early voting.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2018/10/31/6-days-out-florida.html
both are very consistent with close elections, as the polls have been. interestingly, though, the nv early vote looks slightly positive for the dems and the fl early vote looks slightly positive for the pubs, which is the opposite of polls (although rosen added a good poll today).
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Bad news for the crowd who thinks fewer should vote.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1057611494223949824
The 2018 early vote is exceeding "*total*" 2014 vote? Ummmm.... :dubious:
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OT, but it's kinda weird that Hillary clearly lost because of husbands voting for their wives, yet Dems are still in favor of any initiative to remove voting from the polling place.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/13/like-it-or-not-studies-suggest-that-clinton-may-not-be-wrong-on-white-women-voting-like-their-husbands/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/13/like-it-or-not-studies-suggest-that-clinton-may-not-be-wrong-on-white-women-voting-like-their-husbands/)
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Early voting totals, it could have been worded better
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This is the first I've heard of removing voting from polling places. Are you talking about the Oregon model of mail in ballots or just something you read on breitbart?
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Early voting totals, it could have been worded better
When they put the "total" between asterisks, kinda looked like they were emphasizing that "total" meant "total." I'm legitimately wondering if whatever dumb dumb tweeted that actually thinks that's what's happened. Problem with getting news by tweet.
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The problem was using a hashtagged word as part of the sentence, for some reason that's giving you a mental block
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This is the first I've heard of removing voting from polling places. Are you talking about the Oregon model of mail in ballots or just something you read on breitbart?
I'm talking absentee voting (by mail), which I believe is now permitted in every state. In most states you don't even have to provide a reason you can't make it to the polls.
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Interesting definition of "removing voting from polling places", I'd more accurately describe it as alternatives to voting at a polling place
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This is the first I've heard of removing voting from polling places. Are you talking about the Oregon model of mail in ballots or just something you read on breitbart?
I'm talking absentee voting (by mail), which I believe is now permitted in every state. In most states you don't even have to provide a reason you can't make it to the polls.
I have no idea why this would be a concern. Sometimes you are just going to be out of town or be too busy to vote on election day.
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it took me like an hour to fill out my ballot and i used my computer frequently to research ballot measures and candidates. filling it out in person at a polling place would have been a nightmare and i'd have voted dumber.
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it took me like an hour to fill out my ballot and i used my computer frequently to research ballot measures and candidates. filling it out in person at a polling place would have been a nightmare and i'd have voted dumber.
I did the same when I lived in Colorado. I'm a big fan, particularly with lesser known ballot measures and candidates.
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At least in the great state of TX you can print out a sample ballot based on your jurisdiction and then research in the comfort of your own home. I just take that in with me and copy the answers. It’s never taken me longer than 20 minutes to actually vote and that includes waiting in line.
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I like vote by mail. I’m simply pointing out that if you’re worried that husbands are filling out ballots for their wives, as Dems evidently are, then it’s kinda weird to favor a voting mechanism that enables that.
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it took me like an hour to fill out my ballot and i used my computer frequently to research ballot measures and candidates. filling it out in person at a polling place would have been a nightmare and i'd have voted dumber.
An hour?! Goodness. I usually don't even sit down.
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I’m all over the place today, but one of the bigger surprises to me this election cycle is I kinda assumed the KC Star was gonna drop at least one more Propublica-written hit piece against Kobach in late October. Maybe this guy is cleaner than I thought.
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Much like trump, Kobach is his own hit piece
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I voted at the local Board of Elections today. No line. Whole thing took five minutes.
Total no-brainer issues. Reduced state sentences for drug offenses and a liquor license for a local business. YES and YES!
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MO ballot is huge this cycle, the state is cautioning to allow 40-60 minutes just to fill it out, and with no early voting the lines are already guaranteed to be long. I'm guessing at least 2 hours for me Tuesday :frown:
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I like vote by mail. I’m simply pointing out that if you’re worried that husbands are filling out ballots for their wives, as Dems evidently are, then it’s kinda weird to favor a voting mechanism that enables that.
I don't think there is a concern that husbands are literally filing out the ballot for their wives. I think they mean that white married women tend to vote the way their husband wants or for his best interest, and not necessarily their own.
I haven't dove into it enough to see how they discern this, but I don't think anyone is saying there needs to be a systemic solution to this. The solution would be in using this information to campaign more effectively.
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I like vote by mail. I’m simply pointing out that if you’re worried that husbands are filling out ballots for their wives, as Dems evidently are, then it’s kinda weird to favor a voting mechanism that enables that.
I don't think there is a concern that husbands are literally filing out the ballot for their wives. I think they mean that white married women tend to vote the way their husband wants or for his best interest, and not necessarily their own.
I haven't dove into it enough to see how they discern this, but I don't think anyone is saying there needs to be a systemic solution to this. The solution would be in using this information to campaign more effectively.
Well if that's the case, then I am shocked - shocked - that one spouse might follow the other spouse's lead, particularly if one spouse thinks it's to the economic advantage of the primary bread-winning spouse. :surprised: And seriously, I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination that one spouse fills out the ballot (hopefully at least with consent) for the other - this probably happens quite often.
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KSUW apparently has many things he'd like to get off his chest. Goodness.
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Is that what happens at your house?
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I like vote by mail. I’m simply pointing out that if you’re worried that husbands are filling out ballots for their wives, as Dems evidently are, then it’s kinda weird to favor a voting mechanism that enables that.
I don't think there is a concern that husbands are literally filing out the ballot for their wives. I think they mean that white married women tend to vote the way their husband wants or for his best interest, and not necessarily their own.
I haven't dove into it enough to see how they discern this, but I don't think anyone is saying there needs to be a systemic solution to this. The solution would be in using this information to campaign more effectively.
Well if that's the case, then I am shocked - shocked - that one spouse might follow the other spouse's lead, particularly if one spouse thinks it's to the economic advantage of the primary bread-winning spouse. :surprised: And seriously, I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination that one spouse fills out the ballot (hopefully at least with consent) for the other - this probably happens quite often.
lmao
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Early voting totals, it could have been worded better
speaking of which:
https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1057698731666165761
worth pointing out that texas 2018 turnout is weird (big) compared to most states and also that 2014 turnout is weird (small) compared to most midterms.
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on the same theme, this is a good thread where nate cohn talks about how so far the early voting appears to be in line with their turnout models for states.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1057692219669446656
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I like vote by mail. I’m simply pointing out that if you’re worried that husbands are filling out ballots for their wives, as Dems evidently are, then it’s kinda weird to favor a voting mechanism that enables that.
I don't think there is a concern that husbands are literally filing out the ballot for their wives. I think they mean that white married women tend to vote the way their husband wants or for his best interest, and not necessarily their own.
I haven't dove into it enough to see how they discern this, but I don't think anyone is saying there needs to be a systemic solution to this. The solution would be in using this information to campaign more effectively.
Well if that's the case, then I am shocked - shocked - that one spouse might follow the other spouse's lead, particularly if one spouse thinks it's to the economic advantage of the primary bread-winning spouse. :surprised: And seriously, I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination that one spouse fills out the ballot (hopefully at least with consent) for the other - this probably happens quite often.
my wife asked me how she should vote today
(odd coincidence)
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Is that what happens at your house?
My wife asked me to but I refused out of principle. Pretty sure she did sneak a peek at mine when she filled hers out. (My wife also thinks the suffrage movement was probably a mistake overall :love:)
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(My wife also thinks the suffrage movement was probably a mistake overall :love:)
:sdeek:
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i don't know what this means, if anything. but this is amazing.
https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1057699510011523072
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Is that what happens at your house?
My wife asked me to but I refused out of principle. Pretty sure she did sneak a peek at mine when she filled hers out. (My wife also thinks the suffrage movement was probably a mistake overall :love:)
joking or not way to stay on brand ksu-dub
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(My wife also thinks the suffrage movement was probably a mistake overall :love:)
:sdeek:
Did you expect KSUW to marry a feminist?
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Kdub, your wife would love Gilead
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Great trolling by k-dub, per the new normal
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KSUW, how did you feel about your wife bombing at Rob Lowe's comedy central roast?
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i don't know what this means, if anything. but this is amazing.
https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1057699510011523072
https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1057456983345938432
Texans are going nuts on early voting
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Have the early voting rules changed there?
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No
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Cruz is probably crapping his pants rn. Straight to victory that is.
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Does LibBot Nation think that Claire McCaskill's "I'm not a crazy Democrat" platform will propel her over the finish line?
Not this LibBot
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:bawl:
:ck: :No pity:
I am resigned to Democrats winning the House.
2 years of hell, and American greatness started down the slope to 3rd world status
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lmao
https://twitter.com/janzforcongress/status/1058078934124834817?s=21
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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lmao
https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1058145230241886208
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lol
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https://twitter.com/feliciasonmez/status/1058164239179923458
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lmao
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1058182635447566341
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guiliani is full-blown sketti-brain'd
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lmao
https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1058145230241886208
"strong odor"
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Fartenberry is great rofl
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Fartenberry is great rofl
Agree.
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Fartenberry is great rofl
All of the edits are great. It’s art.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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lmao, from my private stash
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181102/58f6135f7284a300ac05bba598b398e5.jpg)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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lmao
https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1058145230241886208
He called the University absolutely enraged. And they lmao’d at him politely, because they are very kind people.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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OT, but it's kinda weird that Hillary clearly lost because of husbands voting for their wives, yet Dems are still in favor of any initiative to remove voting from the polling place.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/13/like-it-or-not-studies-suggest-that-clinton-may-not-be-wrong-on-white-women-voting-like-their-husbands/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/13/like-it-or-not-studies-suggest-that-clinton-may-not-be-wrong-on-white-women-voting-like-their-husbands/)
Libtards genuinely believe they are entitled to all women's votes bc they support abortion, just like they think they're entitled to all minority votes because they support welfare. They are squirrelly in the head, sexist and racist assholes.
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the early vote still look good for dems in nv and not that good in fl. both are still basically consistent with toss up races. if you want to make a bet based on early voting, nv 4 looks like decent odds.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog
http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/11/2/4-days-out-florida-man-is-crushing-this-voting-thing.html
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the early vote still look good for dems in nv and not that good in fl. both are still basically consistent with toss up races. if you want to make a bet based on early voting, nv 4 looks like decent odds.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog
http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/11/2/4-days-out-florida-man-is-crushing-this-voting-thing.html
i think the previous links still take you to today's updates. dems had a big last day of evoting in nevada, probably moves that race from 50% rosen (polls) to about 65% rosen (polls + evote). no movement on florida, i think 60% gillum, 50% nelson is still about right.
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Holy moly josh hawley is gross
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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1058532803263062019
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Bucket, what’s your take on this? Blue wave for sure, right?
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If anyone should appreciate how remarkable this is, it's the "have you ever been to Texas?" Beto skeptics.
https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1058740322530820097
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https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1059099440450076677
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Bucket, what’s your take on this? Blue wave for sure, right?
Well Wacks, I don't know much more than what I've read which would suggest Dems take the house. The surge in young voter turnout would support that belief, IMO.
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old voters are surging too. 2018 is shaping up to be a very high turnout for a midterm and 2014 was a very low turnout for a midterm. those stats don't tell you much, imo.
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Holy moly josh hawley is gross
This is incorrect. Historically incorrect when compared to McCaskill
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If anyone should appreciate how remarkable this is, it's the "have you ever been to Texas?" Beto skeptics.
https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1058740322530820097
Real polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html
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good discussion of the sat evote in florida in today's installment. dems had a good day, but that was baked in, so no change to expectations. evoting is over in nevada.
http://steveschale.com/blog/2018/11/4/almost-there-2-days-florida.html
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no new info, but a good summary on nevada.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday
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The Dem recipe of zero ideas and hate to make America suck again should fail miserably to win either the senate or the house. :driving:
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for some time, i've been skeptical of the notion that money moves high profile races much. but if it's true that the generic ballot poll is unchanged over the few weeks (it's true) and that toss up races are moving to dems (it may or may not be true), then the idea that money is moving those races is a pretty reasonable hypothesis.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059280554158383104
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032
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My final predictions, based upon my highly sophisticated computer models, are that if the election were held today, Pubs have a 77.59% chance of holding the House with a net Dem gain of 18 seats. If this doesn’t come to pass, it is because the election is not until tomorrow, and I did say the Dems have a 22.41% chance.
On the Senate side, Pubs hold AZ and NV, and pick up ND, MO, IN, MT, and FL (margins biggest to smallest). (Oh - and I think DeSantis wins FL Gov, btw).
On the Kansas side, Yoder prevails in a squeaker and Your New Governor Kris Kobach wins by a fairly comfortable 4-5pts.
On the media coverage side, expect any Dem gains, large or small, to be breathlessly reported as a Major Rebuke to President Trump.
On the political side, the best outcomes for Dems would be either massive wave election gains of 40+ seats in the house, or to narrowly fail to capture the House. The worst outcomes would be for Pubs to gain house seats, or for the Dems t narrowly retake the House by less than 5 votes (giving them just enough control to go full battshit, but not enough to actually get anything meaningful passed).
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I think the demoncraps will control the house by about 30 seats. The republicans will control the senate by 2-4 seats.
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GET OUT AND VOTE: It won't change anything in the government and your life will be exactly the same as before regardless of who wins, but you can get some likes on social media by posting a selfie of yourself with your "I Voted" sticker.
And don't forget to subtly insult those of your friends/followers who have not yet posted an "I Voted" selfie.
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Thanks for the analysis kdub!
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the maga/incel voting block is being underestimated
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the maga/incel voting block is being underestimated
Had to google the incel thing. Never heard of that word before. Agree the MAGAs are being underestimated, and a significant portion of the "record turnout" in early voting.
Speaking of turnout, Dilbert Guy has a good one on the subject of "what does it say about your party when increasing turnout among the least experienced and most naive voters is key to your political fortunes?" It says a lot, IMO.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/yESprKe8TcM[/youtube]
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Incels LOVE trump, like take cat27 times one million
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Has the dilbert guy shared how he's protecting his lake house from the caravan?
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for some time, i've been skeptical of the notion that money moves high profile races much. but if it's true that the generic ballot poll is unchanged over the few weeks (it's true) and that toss up races are moving to dems (it may or may not be true), then the idea that money is moving those races is a pretty reasonable hypothesis.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059280554158383104
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032
The dems are running a CNA ???????? :lol: :ROFL:
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My final predictions, based upon my highly sophisticated computer models, are that if the election were held today, Pubs have a 77.59% chance of holding the House with a net Dem gain of 18 seats. If this doesn’t come to pass, it is because the election is not until tomorrow, and I did say the Dems have a 22.41% chance.
On the Senate side, Pubs hold AZ and NV, and pick up ND, MO, IN, MT, and FL (margins biggest to smallest). (Oh - and I think DeSantis wins FL Gov, btw).
On the Kansas side, Yoder prevails in a squeaker and Your New Governor Kris Kobach wins by a fairly comfortable 4-5pts.
On the media coverage side, expect any Dem gains, large or small, to be breathlessly reported as a Major Rebuke to President Trump.
On the political side, the best outcomes for Dems would be either massive wave election gains of 40+ seats in the house, or to narrowly fail to capture the House. The worst outcomes would be for Pubs to gain house seats, or for the Dems t narrowly retake the House by less than 5 votes (giving them just enough control to go full battshit, but not enough to actually get anything meaningful passed).
I'm not quite this optimistic. I think Dems win House by a couple but do not think it's going to be a landslide. I'll stick with my Pub pickup of +2 in Senate. Maybe 3?
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Oh I’m definitely still drinking the “all the smart people underestimated Trump in 2016” koolaid. Maybe the smart people are right this time. Or maybe they aren’t. I think we can all agree the meltdowns are gonna be way more fun if they’re wrong, again.
I also do not relish 2 years of batshit crazy Demism in the house. Think about this for a minute: Maxine Waters is poised to be the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. Adam Schiff the chair of House Intelligence Committee. Yikes.
But all things considered, I’d call it a good day if the pubs pick up a few more seats in the Senate and KK wins Kansas. Judges and state taxes are my current priorities. If those don’t go my way, I’ll be a little :curse:
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Ksuw/dilbert guy, fyi people without college degrees went like 70/30 for trump in 16
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Ksuw/dilbert guy, fyi people without college degrees went like 70/30 for trump in 16
Attending college is not the same as experience or wisdom, but I think you know that.
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:lol: https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/05/reporter-john-james-midterms-michigan/ (https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/05/reporter-john-james-midterms-michigan/)
I hope he calls her back for an interview....
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Different perspective on senate
http://election.princeton.edu/2018/11/04/senate-2018-home-stretch-two-futures/
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Ksuw/dilbert guy, fyi people without college degrees went like 70/30 for trump in 16
People with graduate degrees in language arts and social services and higher student loan installment debt than monthly wages went like 99/1 Bern/HRC.
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List of people obligated to vote Democrat
https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1053998852146110465?s=19
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don't care about any race in the country but ks gov
please no Kobach
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Not a Trump family member?
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Ksuw/dilbert guy, fyi people without college degrees went like 70/30 for trump in 16
People with graduate degrees in language arts and social services and higher student loan installment debt than monthly wages went like 99/1 Bern/HRC.
Surprising you go after your biggest customers like this
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Ksuw/dilbert guy, fyi people without college degrees went like 70/30 for trump in 16
Attending college is not the same as experience or wisdom, but I think you know that.
We're not talking about people who went to college, but I think you know that
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Ksuw/dilbert guy, fyi people without college degrees went like 70/30 for trump in 16
People with graduate degrees in language arts and social services and higher student loan installment debt than monthly wages went like 99/1 Bern/HRC.
Surprising you go after your biggest customers like this
People who lost half their net worth investing in bitcoin
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Ksuw/dilbert guy, fyi people without college degrees went like 70/30 for trump in 16
People with graduate degrees in language arts and social services and higher student loan installment debt than monthly wages went like 99/1 Bern/HRC.
Surprising you go after your biggest customers like this
People who lost half their net worth investing in bitcoin
That’s called being an idiot but I think you know that
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Trump deserves all the credit for stopping the blue wave. At best it's going to be an old man whiz drizzle.
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final summary on nevada. you can really see how unique nevada is that it allows for this kind of analysis. probably the most important factor is just that low population. florida has many of the same dynamics, but the population size make it much less useful. like you have some small partisan edge in florida, and it's just like, "shrug, we'll just have to see how the npa's break, 'cause there's like 2 million of them" but in nevada, you get a 20k partisan edge and the npa's have to go crazy to generate enough votes to offset it.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog
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I didn’t send in my vote by mail ballot until yesterday, think I should vote in person today, just to be safe?
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More bad news for those who think fewer people should vote.
https://twitter.com/DomenicoNPR/status/1059753232908587008
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I didn’t send in my vote by mail ballot until yesterday, think I should vote in person today, just to be safe?
:nono:
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There are two conflicting medical marijuana Q's on the mo ballot
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I’ve already seen several large buses full of people driving around today
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There are two conflicting medical marijuana Q's on the mo ballot
3
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More bad news for those who think fewer people should vote.
https://twitter.com/DomenicoNPR/status/1059753232908587008
narrator: it did not make up a third of all voters
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incels are 100% trump
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There are two conflicting medical marijuana Q's on the mo ballot
3
i didn't think the 3rd one was conflicting
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Only one can pass
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Further, only one is a good idea too. Hopefully you yes'd amendment 2 (the 4% tax one)
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Further, only one is a good idea too. Hopefully you yes'd amendment 2 (the 4% tax one)
yep :thumbs:
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Was there a question on the ballot to allow medical marijuana without a tax? That would be best, imo.
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059845400373280769
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https://twitter.com/merica/status/1059934939209175040
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don't care about any race in the country but ks gov
please no Kobach
:billdance:
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Trump somehow declares a big victory or says something about going undefeated despite Republicans losing the House majority.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060022696703070208
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anybody have this?
senate: pubs +3
house: dems +34
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I think the demoncraps will control the house by about 30 seats. The republicans will control the senate by 2-4 seats.
pretty close
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nice work RATM
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polls and predictive modelling did pretty well. again.
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Amazing work they do
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https://twitter.com/ShutUpAndrosky/status/1060011262120157184?s=19
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polls and predictive modelling did pretty well. again.
yeah, thought the same
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polls and predictive modelling did pretty well. again.
Pretty good at over estimating D success on most of the "toss up" races. Basically being wrong more than half the time.
But yeah, they zinged the uncontested matters and uncompetitive races. The races you don't need a model to predict who will win.
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polls and predictive modelling did pretty well. again.
Pretty good at over estimating D success on most of the "toss up" races. Basically being wrong more than half the time.
But yeah, they zinged the uncontested matters and uncompetitive races. The races you don't need a model to predict who will win.
Like Kansas Governors race
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the polls didn't do a great job with the senate races, but the predictive models did very well at modelling the likelihood of correlated polling errors in senate races.
there were like nine billion house races and the polls got a lot right and some a little wrong and some a lot wrong. i haven't looked to see if there were any trends in the errors, but overall the seemed to be pretty accurate.
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i know no one except me cares, but i won 8 of 9 election bets on predictit. i lost on gillum. i also mumped up by selling out of allred and nunes when they went up, i'd have won both if i'd have kept them.
most races i bought into over 50 cents and a few were gimmees, but still, a good show for polling since all my bets were based on polling.
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061049737565126656
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California may be +32-ish overall for the dems in that state alone after this. Lol.
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r +1 senate
d +25 house
nunes wins ca22 by 6, cruz wins tx by 5.
i'm updating my prediction to:
d +0 senate
d +35 house
nunes wins by 4, cruz by 3.
r +1 senate
d +38 house
nunes plus 5, cruz plus 6.
it's gonna end up r +2 senate, d +38-40 house. nunes is +10 now, but should fall to 8 or 9 when all the ballots are counted. cruz +2.6. i underestimated beto and nunes, but not too bad, overall.
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Have these been posted on here? Pretty historical for recent Pub presidents to lose that many house seats in his first midterm.
Trump: -38/40 house, +2 Senate
Obama: -63 house, -5 Senate
Bush: +8 house, +1 Senate
Clinton: -54 house, -5 Senate
Bush: -7 house, -1 Senate
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somebody help me out: pubs were +3 in the senate late last week; which race flipped?
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Someone probably counted Arizona or Montana
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somebody help me out: pubs were +3 in the senate late last week; which race flipped?
they're still counting in az, but mcsally conceded as it became obvious there weren't enough ballots left for her to catch up.
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Also Nevada looked red on election night but went blue. Kdub and fsd had the R's up to +4 and were popping champagne
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ah, yeah it was probably AZ
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Pubs picked up MO, IN, ND.
it appears they lost AZ, after they won it. It is doubtful Broward county will be able to cheat enough to turn FL, and that's a pickup.
4-1=3
You are welcome.
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Pubs picked up MO, IN, ND.
it appears they lost AZ, after they won it. It is doubtful Broward county will be able to cheat enough to turn FL, and that's a pickup.
4-1=3
You are welcome.
Correction: apparently nevada had a pub senator before and elected a dem this time.
So: 4-2=2
But Mississippi is having some Confederate antebellum style runoff, so hold your breath.
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Oh no
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+2 ties for best first midterm wave since Nixon. +4 would've tied for the biggest wave in history, I think (don't really care pre-WWII)
Big win for the Pubs in the Senate, house was a big win for the dems.
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Nixon administration seems like a fair comparison.
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Nixon administration seems like a fair comparison.
lol wut.
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I’m agreeing with you geeze.
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+2 ties for best first midterm wave since Nixon. +4 would've tied for the biggest wave in history, I think (don't really care pre-WWII)
Big win for the Pubs in the Senate, house was a big win for the dems.
Lol wut, 2010, 2002, 1994 all were bigger than +2 for republicans for a first midterm and that was just since 1990. WTF are you looking at?
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+2 ties for best first midterm wave since Nixon. +4 would've tied for the biggest wave in history, I think (don't really care pre-WWII)
Big win for the Pubs in the Senate, house was a big win for the dems.
Lol wut, 2010, 2002, 1994 all were bigger than +2 for republicans for a first midterm and that was just since 1990. WTF are you looking at?
+ wave for the sitting president, those (2010 and 1994) would be considered - for the presidents first midterm.
(I only show Bush was +1 in 2002, though?)
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Probably didn't explain that well, but it made a lot of sense in my head!
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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1064685757623873537
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the votes counted today in ca-21 were really good. i think it's going to be 40.
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this is the district to my south, where i work quite a bit, so it's a little bit personal to me. also 40.
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1067216860779753472
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The crazy pub lady beat the crazy dem in Mississippi
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the votes counted today in ca-21 were really good. i think it's going to be 40.
+40 seems to have exceeded most of what I saw but I don't follow it that close.
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First page of this thread is pretty :Keke:
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Trump somehow declares a big victory or says something about going undefeated despite Republicans losing the House majority.
I didn't think that dems would take the Senate. Still, I NEVER would have imagined that this would be his angle.
There's this amazing long passage where he goes on and on about how he only tried to win Senate seats, didn't even attempt to win any House seats, and had the biggest Senate win in history.
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we did it, everybody. valadao is out. :party: although i think there are still thousands of provisionals left to countin fresno and kern counties.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067861683333447681
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1067853928228827137
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1067902932933169152
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actually, looks like fresno finished off their provisionals too, there just weren't many in ca21.
https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1067903642718621697
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r +1 senate
d +25 house
nunes wins ca22 by 6, cruz wins tx by 5.
i'm updating my prediction to:
d +0 senate
d +35 house
nunes wins by 4, cruz by 3.
r +1 senate
d +38 house
nunes plus 5, cruz plus 6.
it's gonna end up r +2 senate, d +38-40 house. nunes is +10 now, but should fall to 8 or 9 when all the ballots are counted. cruz +2.6. i underestimated beto and nunes, but not too bad, overall.
all the way down to +6 with the last update from fresno. i was only off by 1. :cool:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067990931872366592
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"Ballot harvesting"??? JFC, we need to place California in receivership or something.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/politics/paul-ryan-questions-californias-vote-counting-process-as-bizarre.amp