goemaw.com

TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: CHONGS on January 18, 2016, 10:20:20 AM

Title: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 18, 2016, 10:20:20 AM
2013: 14
2014: 10
2015:  8
2016:  ?

kenpom is "projecting" 6, what say you?  8 conference wins you take the over or the under?
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: AppleJack on January 18, 2016, 10:21:21 AM
Way under. 5 or 6.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Trim on January 18, 2016, 11:54:17 AM
Under, but with the caveat that the schedule-makers certainly didn't do us any favors this year.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Skipper44 on January 18, 2016, 12:11:32 PM
2013: 14
2014: 10
2015:  8
2016:  ?

kenpom is "projecting" 6, what say you?  8 conference wins you take the over or the under?
6 just looks the the right number there
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: star seed 7 on January 18, 2016, 12:20:09 PM
Under, but with the caveat that the schedule-makers certainly didn't do us any favors this year.

 :lol:
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: sys on January 18, 2016, 12:46:04 PM
i trust kenpom on this one, it has paid more attention to kstate bball than any of us have.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: chum1 on January 18, 2016, 12:50:08 PM
6 wins would be one of the worst Big 12 conference winning percentages in history. This team doesn't seem nearly inept enough to be categorized with those teams. Of course, that doesn't mean they can't pull it off!
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: kso_FAN on January 18, 2016, 01:48:09 PM
i trust kenpom on this one, it has paid more attention to kstate bball than any of us have.

OSU and TCU are worse than us. We probably can win 3 of those 4.

Tech and Texas are about the same. Likely a split.

We've already lost to ISU and WVU at home and probably won't beat either on the road.

Maybe we can beat Baylor at home and maybe one win between KU/OU at home.

We'll also probably win at least one more road win we don't expect when we have an unusual good shooting night from 3 because that will happen at some point.

I can still see 7 or 8 wins.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: sys on January 18, 2016, 02:28:08 PM
I can still see 7 or 8 wins.

kenpom can see that too.  it just thinks 6 is more likely.  am i imagining things or did kp formerly give probabilities for the range of expected wins?  not just the most likely outcome as it does now.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: SleepFighter on January 18, 2016, 02:35:13 PM
I can still see 7 or 8 wins.

kenpom can see that too.  it just thinks 6 is more likely.  am i imagining things or did kp formerly give probabilities for the range of expected wins?  not just the most likely outcome as it does now.
At some point during the season, he would post a chart of number of confy wins vs probability. I don't remember at which point during the season that went live though.

Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: renocat on January 18, 2016, 02:58:19 PM
At some.point we will move from fighting in a hole.of.our own making, and hole up the holes of the other team's and eviscerate them.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 18, 2016, 03:34:05 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fnbnj8tp.png&hash=e58dba5da52ebc1240bcb39a263641273cdb42b8)

I could have mocatted my math up tho
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 18, 2016, 08:03:05 PM
Fwiw,

We have 6 losses.
4 to teams ranked in the top 10
1 to #19 isu
1 @ ut by 3 pts

The two home losses to wvu and isu are the most disappointing.  But I didn't think we'd be more than an average p5 team, and I think we're probably a little better than that.  It's a tough year in the big 12 to be a little above average.

I'll reserve judgment until year end.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: michigancat on January 18, 2016, 09:30:05 PM
The schedule-makers didn't do us any favors.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 18, 2016, 09:36:47 PM
Some people just can't handle the truth.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: sys on January 18, 2016, 09:41:07 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fnbnj8tp.png&hash=e58dba5da52ebc1240bcb39a263641273cdb42b8)

I could have mocatted my math up tho

what data say 7 wins?
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 18, 2016, 10:21:58 PM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fnbnj8tp.png&hash=e58dba5da52ebc1240bcb39a263641273cdb42b8)

I could have mocatted my math up tho

what data say 7 wins?
kenpom win% for the remaining conference games
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 18, 2016, 10:25:17 PM
Oh I see my mistake now, this also includes the weird ole miss game too.  So... six conference wins then...I will correct tomorrow.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: mocat on January 18, 2016, 10:26:35 PM
It's 7 bc you take previous year, divide in half, add 3
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on January 18, 2016, 11:08:05 PM
fsd is right in that the home losses to wvu and isu are the most damning. in my wildest of wild dreams i cannot fathom a way that this team can win 8 conference games.

we are 1-4 and about to be 1-5. 8 wins means that you think there is a possibility that they can close out the season 7-3. that means that you think we can win one against ku or either of the isu/wvu road games when we already lost to them at home and then win every single other game.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Mixed-Nutz on January 18, 2016, 11:29:41 PM
fsd is right in that the home losses to wvu and isu are the most damning. in my wildest of wild dreams i cannot fathom a way that this team can win 8 conference games.

we are 1-4 and about to be 1-5. 8 wins means that you think there is a possibility that they can close out the season 7-3. that means that you think we can win one against ku or either of the isu/wvu road games when we already lost to them at home and then win every single other game.

I thinking losing @Texas might edge out losing to WVU at home.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: sys on January 18, 2016, 11:56:49 PM
7-5, modaris. 
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on January 19, 2016, 12:24:32 AM
fsd is right in that the home losses to wvu and isu are the most damning. in my wildest of wild dreams i cannot fathom a way that this team can win 8 conference games.

we are 1-4 and about to be 1-5. 8 wins means that you think there is a possibility that they can close out the season 7-3. that means that you think we can win one against ku or either of the isu/wvu road games when we already lost to them at home and then win every single other game.

I thinking losing @Texas might edge out losing to WVU at home.

historically speaking, you've always thought a bunch of stupid crap so yeah.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 19, 2016, 08:36:53 AM
Oh I see my mistake now, this also includes the weird ole miss game too.  So... six conference wins then...I will correct tomorrow.
corrected:

(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F8kMkdpo.png&hash=1492078a60739450720e9915417c7e557cfc3739)
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: pissclams on January 19, 2016, 09:58:52 AM
does that 6 include factoring in the team folding up shop after losing 5 straight-
@ #6 wvu
ole miss
@ #3 kansas
#1 ou
#13 baylor

Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 19, 2016, 10:04:45 AM
does that 6 include factoring in the team folding up shop after losing 5 straight-
@ #6 wvu
ole miss
@ #3 kansas
#1 ou
#13 baylor


nope!  In fact it thinks we have a 79% chance of beating Ole Miss
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: ChiComCat on January 19, 2016, 10:09:38 AM
So that's why the weird Ole Miss game is scheduled there - schedule makers finally did us a favor
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: schreds21 on January 19, 2016, 10:13:31 AM
We're not going to win another game, are we?   :cry:
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: TownieCat on January 19, 2016, 10:15:00 AM
Scheduling a home game vs a middle-of-the-pack SEC school in January is equivalent of the SEC scheduling FCS football games in November.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CNS on January 19, 2016, 10:17:21 AM
We're not going to win another game, are we?   :cry:

NIT champs

a townie dream.  Home tourney games!!!!
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Trim on January 19, 2016, 10:23:55 AM
We're not going to win another game, are we?   :cry:

NIT champs

a townie dream.  Home tourney games!!!!

But the The Streak.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on January 19, 2016, 10:28:02 AM
We're not going to win another game, are we?   :cry:

NIT champs

a townie dream.  Home tourney games!!!!
:bracketmouse:
Title: Conference wins
Post by: slobber on January 19, 2016, 10:29:39 AM
If we get to 8 confy wins, I will grow my nose hairs out for month.


Gonna win 'em all! (using Tapatalk)
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 19, 2016, 10:40:19 AM
We're not going to win another game, are we?   :cry:
It would be tremendously unlikely.  We have a 0.2% chance of not winning another game.  We'll most likely win between 5 and 8 (80% chance it's in this range).

 
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Asteriskhead on January 19, 2016, 11:02:25 AM
We're not going to win another game, are we?   :cry:

NIT champs

a townie dream.  Home tourney games!!!!

more opportunity for me to put Jacob Pullen quotes on cardboard.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: 420seriouscat69 on January 19, 2016, 11:10:26 AM
I voted under, way under!

TCU at home
Texas at home
Some random game we shouldn't win at home
Oklahoma State at home
Some random game on the road.

6 total wins.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: pissclams on January 19, 2016, 06:59:16 PM
does that 6 include factoring in the team folding up shop after losing 5 straight-
@ #6 wvu
ole miss
@ #3 kansas
#1 ou
#13 baylor


nope!  In fact it thinks we have a 79% chance of beating Ole Miss

ole miss is currently destroying frank martin's 1 loss cocks
i think that they're better than your pie chart is giving them credit for
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: pissclams on January 19, 2016, 07:05:03 PM
however (tuesday edition), ku is getting pummeled in stillwater so maybe the waterfall chart is correct?
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: kso_FAN on January 19, 2016, 08:54:15 PM
does that 6 include factoring in the team folding up shop after losing 5 straight-
@ #6 wvu
ole miss
@ #3 kansas
#1 ou
#13 baylor


nope!  In fact it thinks we have a 79% chance of beating Ole Miss

ole miss is currently destroying frank martin's 1 loss cocks
i think that they're better than your pie chart is giving them credit for

Frank came back from 11 down with 3:40 left and won in OT. Good for Frank.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: bones129 on January 19, 2016, 08:59:18 PM
 :pix_martin:
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 19, 2016, 09:30:01 PM
Here's how I'm handicapping the remainder of our schedule:

BU 0-2
TCU 2-0
TTECH 1-0
OSU 1-1
UT 1-0
KU 1-1
ISU 0-1
WVU 0-1
OU 0-1

That's 6-7 the rest of the way. At this juncture it's easier to see downside than upside, but I don't think this team is as far away from winning the toss up games as its record reflects.  I think we'll eventually win a couple close games.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: pissclams on January 19, 2016, 09:38:05 PM
does that 6 include factoring in the team folding up shop after losing 5 straight-
@ #6 wvu
ole miss
@ #3 kansas
#1 ou
#13 baylor


nope!  In fact it thinks we have a 79% chance of beating Ole Miss

ole miss is currently destroying frank martin's 1 loss cocks
i think that they're better than your pie chart is giving them credit for

Frank came back from 11 down with 3:40 left and won in OT. Good for Frank.
yup, it was a great game.  ole miss played well and i expect a LOSS against them despite what chingon's scatter chart says.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: kso_FAN on January 19, 2016, 09:42:35 PM
yup, it was a great game.  ole miss played well and i expect a LOSS against them despite what chingon's scatter chart says.

If Moody is healthy its a toss up, but if he's still hurt when they come to Manhattan K-State should win easily.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: pissclams on January 19, 2016, 09:53:34 PM
moody getting hurt tonight and saiz's detached retina have both impacted ole miss. 
however, we haven't beaten anyone with a pulse easily and i don't expect that to change.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: sys on January 19, 2016, 10:03:35 PM
home/road is so different.  i expect the home team will beat the road team in that old miss game.  rather easily.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: BackPayne on January 19, 2016, 10:29:10 PM
moody getting hurt tonight and saiz's detached retina have both impacted ole miss. 
however, we haven't beaten anyone with a pulse easily and i don't expect that to change.

Detached retina?!  :sdeek:
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: bones129 on January 19, 2016, 10:39:20 PM
Here's how I'm handicapping the remainder of our schedule:

BU 0-2
TCU 2-0
TTECH 1-0
OSU 1-1
UT 1-0
KU 1-1
ISU 0-1
WVU 0-1
OU 0-1

That's 6-7 the rest of the way. At this juncture it's easier to see downside than upside, but I don't think this team is as far away from winning the toss up games as its record reflects.  I think we'll eventually win a couple close games.

Hate to say it, but I think OSU and KU will both beat us twice.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: pissclams on January 19, 2016, 10:50:47 PM
home/road is so different.  i expect the home team will beat the road team in that old miss game.  rather easily.

we're not playing well at home or on the ro-add.  we're a consistently mediocre to bad team.

does oscar bust his dick out on the road tomorrow night @ baylor?  we know it's coming at some point.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: renocat on January 20, 2016, 01:26:42 PM
Tonight 2
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: #LIFE on January 20, 2016, 01:40:25 PM
Tonight 2

Not a chance. oscar is 3-17 in B12 road games, not counting his 1st season here with Frank's leftovers.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Cire on January 20, 2016, 01:53:42 PM
we're not winning on the road against anyone
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on January 20, 2016, 01:55:05 PM
we're not winning on the road against anyone

Yeah, it really sucks that the schedule makers decided to give us a road game against the entire Big 12. This team could have been special if it weren't for that.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: dmartin on January 20, 2016, 02:23:40 PM
we're not winning on the road against anyone

Yeah, it really sucks that the schedule makers decided to give us a road game against the entire Big 12. This team could have been special if it weren't for that.

Only reason KU keeps winning the conference is because they get less road games than any other team.  It's bullshit.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: SdK on January 20, 2016, 09:58:04 PM
4 to 5 wins.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: pissclams on January 20, 2016, 09:59:31 PM
home/road is so different.  i expect the home team will beat the road team in that old miss game.  rather easily.

we're not playing well at home or on the ro-add.  we're a consistently mediocre to bad team.

does oscar bust his dick out on the road tomorrow night @ baylor?  we know it's coming at some point.

"almost! the true story of kansas state's oscar weber"
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on January 20, 2016, 10:16:54 PM
home/road is so different.  i expect the home team will beat the road team in that old miss game.  rather easily.

we're not playing well at home or on the ro-add.  we're a consistently mediocre to bad team.

does oscar bust his dick out on the road tomorrow night @ baylor?  we know it's coming at some point.

"almost! the true story of kansas state's oscar weber"
It was almost amazing.
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 24, 2016, 09:47:09 AM
Here's how I'm handicapping the remainder of our schedule:

BU 0-2
TCU 2-0
TTECH 1-0
OSU 1-1
UT 1-0
KU 1-1
ISU 0-1
WVU 0-1
OU 0-1

That's 6-7 the rest of the way. At this juncture it's easier to see downside than upside, but I don't think this team is as far away from winning the toss up games as its record reflects.  I think we'll eventually win a couple close games.

Hate to say it, but I think OSU and KU will both beat us twice.

Hoping you are wrong about ku too
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: CHONGS on February 15, 2016, 11:24:43 AM
any new votes? 
Title: Re: Conference wins
Post by: SdK on February 15, 2016, 11:56:38 AM
We will win 2 more.

#TheWesIsTheFuture