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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 03, 2014, 11:58:32 AM
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Because we might as well. Who you got in these pivotal races?
KS Gov: Davis (D)
KS Senate: Roberts (R) :Wha:
AK Senate: Sullivan (R)
AR Senate: Cotton (R)
CO Senate: Gardner (R)
GA Senate: Perdue (R) (no runoff required)
IA Senate: Ernst (R)
KY Senate: McConnell (R)
LA Senate: Cassidy (R)
NC Senate: Hagan (D)
NH Senate: Brown (R) :Wha:
VA Senate: Warner (D)
Republican Senate 54-46 majority.
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I think Brownback wins governor, but agree with the rest of those.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
I think Roberts holds on in KS and Udall somehow takes CO despite a terrible campaign. The environment is a big issue in parts of CO due to tourism associated with it and I think they show up for Udall.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
Yeah, I picked a lot of chalk. Brown over Shaheeny is the only real upset in my bracket. Roberts/Orman is more an 8/9 game.
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There is nothing more exciting than watching election night news coverage. I'm pretty stoked for tomorrow.
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There is nothing more exciting than watching election night news coverage. I'm pretty stoked for tomorrow.
Let's get one of these
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.chick-fil-a.com%2FMedia%2FImg%2Fcatalog%2FFood%2FLarge%2FChickfilA-Nuggets-Tray.png&hash=bb3334664df18afbed69d495c8f6eb68131332c0)
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It's gonna be a long night waiting to call those west coast races. We should get 2.
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The small serves 8 :eek:
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Also some very important drug reform policy elections to pay attention to in multiple states.
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Who do we cheer for?
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Who do we cheer for?
http://blog.norml.org/2014/11/03/marijuana-midterm-smoke-the-vote-november-4th/ (http://blog.norml.org/2014/11/03/marijuana-midterm-smoke-the-vote-november-4th/)
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Kinda forgot it was an election year. I thought about nothing but Royals for a good stretch there.
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Orman/Roberts will be huge in deciding if the Dems keep the Senate.
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Who am I voting for tomorrow? We can get rid of Brownback right?
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Who am I voting for tomorrow? We can get rid of Brownback right?
Yes. You're voting for Paul Davis and Greg Orman.
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Who am I voting for tomorrow? We can get rid of Brownback right?
Yes. You're voting for Paul Davis and Greg Orman.
Ok. Thanks. :thumbsup:
I snicker when I see Davis Docking signs.
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Also lapolice hates the heck out of huelscamp
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Also lapolice hates the heck out of huelscamp
LaPolice lost, unfortunately.
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Well that guy had some great radio commercials
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I predict not giving a crap about any of this
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I did not vote for Hagan or Tillis, probably a throw away with the Libertarian, but I couldn't vote for Hagan because she's a straight line Obama foot soldier and her multi-multi-millionaire family stole Stimulus money via a corporate shell game (why is a U.S. Senator getting stimulus money anyway?)
Can't trust Tillis.
Overall voted for more D's and than R's.
Also voted for the $160 million dollar school bond, even though the remaining kid in K-12 doesn't go to public school.
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I did not vote for Hagan or Tillis, probably a throw away with the Libertarian, but I couldn't vote for Hagan because she's a straight line Obama foot soldier and her multi-multi-millionaire family stole Stimulus money via a corporate shell game (why is a U.S. Senator getting stimulus money anyway?)
So you effectively voted for Hagan, but you feel better about yourself. Good for you! :thumbs:
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I did not vote for Hagan or Tillis, probably a throw away with the Libertarian, but I couldn't vote for Hagan because she's a straight line Obama foot soldier and her multi-multi-millionaire family stole Stimulus money via a corporate shell game (why is a U.S. Senator getting stimulus money anyway?)
So you effectively voted for Hagan, but you feel better about yourself. Good for you! :thumbs:
Thanks K-S-U-W, I really appreciate it.
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I did not vote for Hagan or Tillis, probably a throw away with the Libertarian, but I couldn't vote for Hagan because she's a straight line Obama foot soldier and her multi-multi-millionaire family stole Stimulus money via a corporate shell game (why is a U.S. Senator getting stimulus money anyway?)
So you effectively voted for Hagan, but you feel better about yourself. Good for you! :thumbs:
It's really only half a vote for Hagan, though.
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What do you guys do on those questions about judges? I always just vote no, because change in government is good (unless its a libtard, then more libtards the better).
Also GOP gets 52 seats in Senate. Orman and Davis win. CO goes to the GOP. And finally our government is more broken than ever. Good times.
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What do you guys do on those questions about judges? I always just vote no, because change in government is good (unless its a libtard, then more libtards the better).
Also GOP gets 52 seats in Senate. Orman and Davis win. CO goes to the GOP. And finally our government is more broken than ever. Good times.
I also always vote no on the judges.
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Orman/Roberts will be huge in deciding if the Dems keep the Senate.
No it won't, Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)
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Never once voted to retain a judge
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I think judges should just be given a 10 year term with no opportunity for retention, really. The idea that I step into the ballot box and fill out a form that says whether or not somebody I've never heard of should keep his job with no replacement even suggested has never made sense to me. Sort of like voting for state treasurer. Who gives a crap? Why is that even an elected office? Just hire a staffer to do that job.
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Orman/Roberts will be huge in deciding if the Dems keep the Senate.
No it won't, Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)
It could if the GOP does poorly in other states. He's entitled to his prediction.
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Never once voted to retain a judge
I vote on the ones I have actually taken the time to read up on which is admittedly a low number. When I haven't, I simply don't vote on that portion of the ballot.
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I always vote yes for Meryl Wilson because he is a great judge and a great K-Stater.
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I always vote yes for Meryl Wilson because he is a great judge and a great K-Stater.
This is the correct answer. Meryl is the crap. Also, the most ethical person I have ever met. (No offense, Trim)
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I'm going to party rock so hard when they announce Davis' victory tonight.
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I'm going to party rock so hard when they announce Davis' victory tonight.
I know, right? Higher taxes! Expanding Medicaid! :Woohoo:
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I am just ready for no longer getting robo calls from Christie, Wolfe, Paul Ryan, etc anymore. Those guys....I thought we were bros. Now they just call when the want something.
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Teachers crying and wailing as Brownback is elected. Ol' Pat is reelected, but Snyder gives him a swift kick in the groin (probably won't hurt the shrivelies), Roberts will not last his full term. Hayseed Huelskamp will get elected but will be just a wart on the DC elephant's butt. Kobach will have a new job walking the Mexican border guarding us from aliens and ISIS. Old Bastard Reid will become constipated and meaner and not give a damn about America. Obama will unleash a full scale assault on wrecking our nation. The damage may be great before the new Congress is seated.
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Just voted so hard!
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I always vote yes for Meryl Wilson because he is a great judge and a great K-Stater.
Well if I ever register again (huge pita), I will keep that in mind
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Riley county is kicking Brownbacks ass. :Woot:
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Guys, Paul Davis is going to win.
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I always vote yes for Meryl Wilson because he is a great judge and a great K-Stater.
Well if I ever register again (huge pita), I will keep that in mind
I'll take you with me to register in Riley County if you'll promise to vote to retain my close personal friend.
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What is a Keen Umbrer and why is 4% of the state voting for it?
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I knew that Huelskamp would retain, but this is truly astounding.
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The sooner libtards realize Tim is trolling them, the sooner they'll be able to understand why he continually wins in a landslide
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The sooner libtards realize Tim is trolling them, the sooner they'll be able to understand why he continually wins in a landslide
It doesn't really matter what he says or does. There is absolutely no chance a Democrat will win out there.
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The sooner libtards realize Tim is trolling them, the sooner they'll be able to understand why he continually wins in a landslide
It doesn't really matter what he says or does. There is absolutely no chance a Democrat will win out there.
Boehner kicked him off of those committees because he's a rough ridin' idiot. It's really too bad my fellow Kansans don't realize that he has no worth to us. More so his constituents, who could really use a representative on the Ag committee.
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:lol:
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:lol:
you're the greatest caricature on this board. i do appreciate that.
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They are showing election results that DC is going to legalize the procession of weed. The young pup Huber yuppies that are writing our laws and regulations already come up with goofy crap. High on weed they will hatch some truly bizarre bunk.
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Guys, Paul Davis is going to win.
:D
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They are showing election results that DC is going to legalize the procession of weed. The young pup Huber yuppies that are writing our laws and regulations already come up with goofy crap. High on weed they will hatch some truly bizarre bunk.
Smoke some weed, son.
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The sooner libtards realize Tim is trolling them, the sooner they'll be able to understand why he continually wins in a landslide
It doesn't really matter what he says or does. There is absolutely no chance a Democrat will win out there.
Boehner kicked him off of those committees because he's a rough ridin' idiot. It's really too bad my fellow Kansans don't realize that he has no worth to us. More so his constituents, who could really use a representative on the Ag committee.
Well, of course he's an idiot. He's also a prick.
But folks out west would rather vote for a moron than anyone that doesn't have an R by their name.
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Good crap Joco voters love voting for sales taxes.
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:lol:
My tv tells me Roberts won, by a larger margin than expected. It also tells me that Brownback has more votes.
Nationwide that pubs appear to be crap stomping the dems.
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:lol:
My tv tells me Roberts won, by a larger margin than expected. It also tells me that Brownback has more votes.
Nationwide that pubs appear to be crap stomping the dems.
They seem to be cruising. Can I expect some lower taxes by the spring?
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Brownback won Johnson Co. by a very thin margin.
If Davis is going to win, it's going to need to come from Shawnee or Sedgewick.
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Brownback won Johnson Co. by a very thin margin.
If Davis is going to win, it's going to need to come from Shawnee or Sedgewick.
Brownback won SG by a wider margin
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Guys, Paul Davis is going to win.
:D
:lynchmob:
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:lol:
My tv tells me Roberts won, by a larger margin than expected. It also tells me that Brownback has more votes.
Nationwide that pubs appear to be crap stomping the dems.
Even though Brownback is ahead, I still think he is in trouble - JoCo is slow to report.
Good for Roberts, though.
EDIT: NEver mind, JoCo is all in, and Brownback won. :Wha: He's in pretty good shape.
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:lol:
My tv tells me Roberts won, by a larger margin than expected. It also tells me that Brownback has more votes.
Nationwide that pubs appear to be crap stomping the dems.
Even though Brownback is ahead, I still think he is in trouble - JoCo is slow to report.
Good for Roberts, though.
All precincts have reported in Joco, so . . .
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A work pal showed me this, and I'm quite surprised how useful it is. There are like 30 counties that haven't reported at all.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/johnson.html
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Did Orman's voice lose this thing?
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Roberts wins - yeah!!
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good god, brownback is going to win this thing. :frown:
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A work pal showed me this, and I'm quite surprised how useful it is. There are like 30 counties that haven't reported at all.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/johnson.html
Great website, but it looks like it's behind. Says JoCo isn't in yet, but the JoCo website says it is.
Looks like Shawnee and Wyandotte counties may be Davis's only hope?
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Once people realize the legislature is the problem, not Brownback, this will all be easier to stomach.
Insider scoop: I am close with the Davis campaign and they think they've got this thing. Libtards and Brownbacksidehurt folks, don't give up.
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A work pal showed me this, and I'm quite surprised how useful it is. There are like 30 counties that haven't reported at all.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/johnson.html
Great website, but it looks like it's behind. Says JoCo isn't in yet, but the JoCo website says it is.
Looks like Shawnee and Wyandotte counties may be Davis's only hope?
If you click on JoCo it shows all precincts reported, the main map just isn't updated
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A work pal showed me this, and I'm quite surprised how useful it is. There are like 30 counties that haven't reported at all.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/johnson.html
Great website, but it looks like it's behind. Says JoCo isn't in yet, but the JoCo website says it is.
Looks like Shawnee and Wyandotte counties may be Davis's only hope?
it's over.
http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/governor/kansas/#.VFmmdxYsC8A
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A work pal showed me this, and I'm quite surprised how useful it is. There are like 30 counties that haven't reported at all.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/johnson.html
Great website, but it looks like it's behind. Says JoCo isn't in yet, but the JoCo website says it is.
Looks like Shawnee and Wyandotte counties may be Davis's only hope?
Joco just came in complete for Brownback
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Oh man, Thom won NC. Iowa went pub. The polls were fantasy, the pubs are cleaning house.
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Here's an even better county tracker. http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/governor/kansas/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/governor/kansas/)
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Perhaps fittingly, it's all coming down to Topeka. Shawnee county is less than 50% in and Davis can pick up some serious votes there.
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IL elected a pub governor :lol: eff you Obama you huge rough ridin' loser :lol:
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Where does Greg Orman's accent come from? Are there really pockets of Kansas that talk like that? How do those people not blow their eardrums out at a young age?
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Perhaps fittingly, it's all coming down to Topeka. Shawnee county is less than 50% in and Davis can pick up some serious votes there.
There also like 20 rural counties that haven't reported at, and are going 65-70% Brownback, so it's probably over.
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I feel like Scott Walker has had to win an election 6 times in the last 4 years. What the eff is going on in WI?
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Where does Greg Orman's accent come from? Are there really pockets of Kansas that talk like that? How do those people not blow their eardrums out at a young age?
Johnson County (pace picante voice)
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Omg I would punch Joni Ernst right in the face given the chance.
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This Brownback/Davis race is coming down to the wire!! Davis is down about 15k, but he can get close to erasing that difference in Shawnee County, which is only 45% in. But, Brownback is gonna pick up a few more votes in a number of other counties. I give old Sam a very slight edge - maybe less than 1k votes.
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Omg I would punch Joni Ernst right in the face given the chance.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA... (Joni Ernst laugh) :facepalm: :blowmybrainsout:
To be fair, she has been awake for about 72 hours straight. Hair is still perfectly coiffed.
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casual pit'r here - so what are the big surprises tonight?
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This Brownback/Davis race is coming down to the wire!! Davis is down about 15k, but he can get close to erasing that difference in Shawnee County, which is only 45% in. But, Brownback is gonna pick up a few more votes in a number of other counties. I give old Sam a very slight edge - maybe less than 1k votes.
He's not picking up 15k more in Shawnee because Math.
MSNBC is hilarious right now.
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casual pit'r here - so what are the big surprises tonight?
Brownback is potentially the biggest surprise. May have survived.
North Carolina is next biggest surprise. Flip to R.
Roberts is third biggest surprise. Survived.
Everything else went as generally predicted.
Big big night for the GOP. +9 pickup?
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This Brownback/Davis race is coming down to the wire!! Davis is down about 15k, but he can get close to erasing that difference in Shawnee County, which is only 45% in. But, Brownback is gonna pick up a few more votes in a number of other counties. I give old Sam a very slight edge - maybe less than 1k votes.
He's not picking up 15k more in Shawnee because Math.
MSNBC is hilarious right now.
Rachel Maddow is keeping it together. No hysterics yet.
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casual pit'r here - so what are the big surprises tonight?
Brownback is potentially the biggest surprise. May have survived.
North Carolina is next biggest surprise. Flip to R.
Roberts is third biggest surprise. Survived.
Everything else went as generally predicted.
Big big night for the GOP. +9 pickup?
T-Y
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Brownback is the biggest surprise by far. I still think he doesn't run for president in 2016 because of this though.
Roberts held on and will probably spend the next 6 years (re-election at 84 years old?) trying to preserve his legacy that was tarnished a bit and focusing on bringing home the bacon to KSU & Ft. Riley.
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IL, MA, MD elected Pub governors is pretty surprising. Pubs likely picking up 9 senate seats is an absolute woodshedding
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Guys, Paul Davis is going to win.
:D
:Wha:
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The libtards thought they might hang onto the Senate and pick up governors.
They lost 7 senate seats (likely 2 more) and 4 governors (with more coming).
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The libtards thought they might hang onto the Senate and pick up governors.
They lost 7 senate seats (likely 2 more) and 4 governors (with more coming).
Illinois?! Massachusetts?! Maybe even Connecticut? These are dark blue states that opted to follow the Brownback model, if you will.
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A nationwide rejection of the libtard experiment. <-- NYT headline
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The libtards thought they might hang onto the Senate and pick up governors.
They lost 7 senate seats (likely 2 more) and 4 governors (with more coming).
The Democrats knew we were going to lose the senate, what the eff are you talking about? Kansas is the only race that defied polling.
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Omg I would punch Joni Ernst right in the face given the chance.
She's the absolute worst
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The libtards thought they might hang onto the Senate and pick up governors.
They lost 7 senate seats (likely 2 more) and 4 governors (with more coming).
The Democrats knew we were going to lose the senate, what the eff are you talking about? Kansas is the only race that defied polling.
And North Carolina. And several governors races, including Brownback. This is a bad night for the Dems.
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And now chalk up Maryland in the Republican governor column. rough ridin' Maryland. :Wha:
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Brownback is the biggest surprise by far. I still think he doesn't run for president in 2016 because of this though.
Roberts held on and will probably spend the next 6 years (re-election at 84 years old?) trying to preserve his legacy that was tarnished a bit and focusing on bringing home the bacon to KSU & Ft. Riley.
So Kobach will finish with more votes than Brownback. I need to know who these people are who walked into a voting booth and casted a ballot for Davis and Kobach.
People are generally really really stupid.
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Lawrence O'Donnell is live from camp orman, population zero :lol:
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FNC just called for Brownback. Holy crap. :Woohoo:
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The libtards thought they might hang onto the Senate and pick up governors.
They lost 7 senate seats (likely 2 more) and 4 governors (with more coming).
The Democrats knew we were going to lose the senate, what the eff are you talking about? Kansas is the only race that defied polling.
Libtard fantasy
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FNC just called for Brownback. Holy crap. :Woohoo:
Davis conceded a half hour ago. Brownback won over 50%
MSNBC is awesome. Crediting this landslide to pubs obfuscation strategy paying off. These people are delusional
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The governors races is just a massacre for the Dems. More surprising than the Senate.
MSNBC just said "Shellacking: The Sequel."
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
:emawkid:
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
Big surprise - the libtard is jazzed about pot initiatives. Really look for that silver lining... :lol:
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i for one am glad big government is getting out of their living room
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
Big surprise - the libtard is jazzed about pot initiatives. Really look for that silver lining... :lol:
I don't nor have I ever smoked marijuana, nice job of stereotyping though. Continue keep living down to expectations.
As for the governor races, I wasn't aware I was supposed to care. Should I worry about state senate races in Michigan too? I live in a state with a republican governor I like, why should I care about Florida? Since this is giving you a boner I'll point out to you that a Republican is also going to win Massachusetts.
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:runaway: Idaho has elected a republican governor, now my life is ruined
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jazzed about pot initiatives
this was very good actually
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i wish they would legalize coke.
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So much butthurt from MIR. :cry:
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i for one am glad big government is getting out of their living room
Yes
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
Big surprise - the libtard is jazzed about pot initiatives. Really look for that silver lining... :lol:
I don't nor have I ever smoked marijuana, nice job of stereotyping though. Continue keep living down to expectations.
As for the governor races, I wasn't aware I was supposed to care. Should I worry about state senate races in Michigan too? I live in a state with a republican governor I like, why should I care about Florida? Since this is giving you a boner I'll point out to you that a Republican is also going to win Massachusetts.
Geez, what a wind bag libtard
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i wish they would legalize coke.
You could get a prescription
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The low information voter carried neocons this election
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I am a bit disappointed in some of the results. But the majority of the voters have spoken. *sigh* Still glad I voted.
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On FB there was the usual meltdown from the hardcore Prog/Lib Friends. Probably the strangest was from the one's who are teachers in a county where a $160 million dollar school improvement bond passed by nearly a 2-1 vote. Yet they were going off on how last night's election was a loss for education . . . all the while they're out spending one of the largest teachers pay raises in the state's history, and failing to recognize that deep cuts in education occurred because the previous Democratic governor and previous Democratic controlled State House and Senate drove the state billions of dollars into the red . . . and their only remedy for their inability to spend responsibly was to raise taxes and fees on nearly everything.
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Maybe you should tell facebook that then because no one here gives a crap about Hicksville North Carolina
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Maybe you should tell facebook that then because no one here gives a crap about Hicksville North Carolina
Um-hmm, that's why the Democrats and their outside bundlers etc. etc. spent the most money in their history (on a senatorial campaign) to try and get a crook incumbent re-elected.
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Oh well, keep yelling vaguely at no one Dax, I'm just trying to help you not waste your breath
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Oh well, keep yelling vaguely at no one Dax, I'm just trying to help you not waste your breath
Who is yelling libbutthurtlibbutthurtlib?
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You
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You
#butthurt
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The low information voter carried neocons this election
That's because they didn't vote.
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Low information voters carry every election.
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I can't help but feel a little bit happy for all the ODBs strutting around the office today with creamed trousers.
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
They may have legalized it, but in reality, no one can afford to go into business selling it. Not with the IRS taxing the businesses at a 80-90% tax rate.
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
They may have legalized it, but in reality, no one can afford to go into business selling it. Not with the IRS taxing the businesses at a 80-90% tax rate.
I'm not sure potheads care
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[Taps plays softly in the background...]
In a solemn ceremony, Charlie Crist's fan was unplugged for the final time following his brief concession speech. In keeping with Mr. Crist's wishes, the fan will be cremated and its ashes interred at Arlington National Cemetary, where it will soon be joined by Barack Obama's teleprompter.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1rVLLYCYAEFG4Z.jpg:large)
:cry:
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[Taps plays softly in the background...]
In a solemn ceremony, Charlie Crist's fan was unplugged for the final time following his brief concession speech. In keeping with Mr. Crist's wishes, the fan will be cremated and its ashes interred at Arlington National Cemetary, where it will soon be joined by Barack Obama's teleprompter.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1rVLLYCYAEFG4Z.jpg:large)
:cry:
I feel for him, I have a fan just like that. Sad.
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You mean the guy who refused to debate because his opponent was given a fan won? :lol:
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Some of you guys latch on to the weirdest stuff. Fans, teleprompters, etc. So weird.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNPJ0UJroIQ
This isn't something weird to latch onto, CNS. It's hilarious.
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No, Scott just belongs into the group of "some of you guys" I formed in my statement.
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Scott got a bad rap on that. Crist knew what the hell he was doing, he pulled the same thing during a republican primary debate, back when he was a republican. Scott's problem is that he handled it like a 3 year old child. If he was a boss he just would have went out without having a tantrum and explained to the moderators and the audience that Crist was breaking an agreed upon rule and explain why it was a problem. Even when Crist was talking before Scott came out you could hear the dumb fan in the microphone and it was annoying.
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Grats to Oregon and DC :bong:
They may have legalized it, but in reality, no one can afford to go into business selling it. Not with the IRS taxing the businesses at a 80-90% tax rate.
You don't know what you are talking about so I ask you kindly to shut the eff up.
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It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points. :surprised:
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It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points. :surprised:
That isn't at all true and easily verifiable. You are a compulsive liar.
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MIR literally has no idea what he's talking about, but continues to to chime in. This is really bizarre
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It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points. :surprised:
That isn't at all true and easily verifiable. You are a compulsive liar.
Ummm.Would you simply believe this Politco piece? http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-midterms-polls-112593.html (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-midterms-polls-112593.html)
The polls were wrong. And so were the predictions about how the polls would be wrong. Instead of being biased against Democrats, who still hoped they could overcome modest deficits in a number of states, the surveys of the 2014 Senate landscape turned out to have significantly underestimated Republicans.
The GOP won resoundingly in races where it led only narrowly in the polls, and the party also put into play contests its own strategists thought would be out of reach. Democrats, who had insisted the polls were stacked against them, were crushed in races they thought were competitive.
The results were another black eye for pollsters in what are already some tough times. Just five months after then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s surprise ouster, it was another out-of-nowhere Virginia race that left political observers scratching their heads.
And as Americans become even harder to reach by phone – and emerging methodologies, such as Internet polling, remain unproven – the poor performance of pollsters this year casts serious doubt on the reliability of surveys during the 2016 presidential race.
Republicans nearly swept the 10 Senate races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report on Election Day, winning seven of the 10 outright – they lost New Hampshire, Alaska remains undecided and Louisiana is going to a runoff.
But it wasn’t that Republicans won so many of the most competitive races — it was how much they won by.
Tom Cotton (Ark.), David Perdue (Ga.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Pat Roberts (Kan.) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) all blew out their opponents, despite polls showing much closer contests.
...
In Arkansas, Cotton beat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by a 17-point margin. That capped a startling end to Pryor’s once-charmed political career – Republicans didn’t even run a candidate against him six years ago. The breadth of Cotton’s victory was all the more impressive when stacked against the freshman GOP congressman’s 7-point lead in the final RealClearPolitics average on Election Day. (Credit goes to the University of Arkansas, whose 13-point spread for Cotton represented the only survey to show him leading Pryor by more than 8 points.)
In Georgia, Perdue cleared the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff and romped over Democrat Michelle Nunn, 53 percent to 45 percent. But the final RCP average showed Perdue with just a 3-point lead in the polls.
While polls didn’t project Perdue’s margin, they did show him closing in the final weeks of the campaign. Nunn was tied or led in seven consecutive mid-October polls, but Perdue claimed the late momentum, leading in nine of the final 10 polls. Still, no survey showed him with a lead larger than four points.
Iowa’s Joni Ernst was yet another Republican underestimated by the polls: The final RCP average had her up by 2.3 points, far lower than the 8.5-point margin by which she beat Democratic Rep. oscar Braley.
The average is a little misleading, however. Most polls showed the race tied, or Ernst with the slightest of edges. But the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted by West Des Moines-based pollster J. Ann Selzer, put Ernst up by a 7-point margin, 51 percent to 44 percent. Ernst won, 52 percent to 44 percent.
Democrats pilloried Selzer’s poll, pointing out – with some justification, given the other seven surveys conducted over the final week showed results that ranged from Braley ahead by 1 to Ernst up by 3. But Selzer, who has polled for the Register for decades and most recently accurately predicted President Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, proved again why she is the gold standard in the Hawkeye State.
Kansas was always a difficult dynamic for pollsters. Republicans haven’t lost a Senate election there since the Great Depression, and independent Greg Orman — who doesn’t have a natural constituency — presents a unique challenge.
But the polls, both public and private, missed badly. Orman entered Election Day with a negligible, 0.8-point lead in the RCP average. Not only did GOP Sen. Pat Roberts win by nearly 11 points, but Republican Gov. Sam Brownback – whom some GOPers had left for dead – also won reelection.
Polls in Kentucky had moved toward Mitch McConnell in recent weeks, but no survey showed the likely new Senate majority leader up double digits, let alone leading by the 15.5-point margin by which he beat Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes on Tuesday.
In Louisiana, the RCP average showed Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 5.7 points ahead of GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy. While both candidates still made the runoff, Landrieu’s margin was just one point.
Polls in three other competitive Senate races – Alaska, Colorado and North Carolina – also exhibited a Democratic bias. While the difference was less dramatic, Sen.-elect Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) victory is considered a modest surprise because of Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan’s slight lead in the polls.
In only one of the 10 most competitive Senate races were polls too optimistic for Republicans: New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen won with a larger cushion than polls had indicated.
Virginia wasn’t on anyone’s watch-list going into Tuesday, with polls — outside of a survey from GOP robopollster Vox Populi — showing Democratic Sen. Mark Warner with a comfortable lead. Warner had a lead of 9.7 points in the final RCP average; he’s currently up by less than a point as a possible recount looms.
Part of the problem with Virginia — and neighboring Maryland, where Republican Larry Hogan was the upset winner of the state’s gubernatorial race — was an overall lack of public telephone polling. Two colleges polled Virginia Senate in the final two weeks, finding Warner ahead by 12 and 7 points.
Virginia was the scene of the most shocking upset of the entire cycle, when Cantor went down — by a lot, and to the humiliation of his unprepared campaign — to virtual unknown Dave Brat in the GOP primary. Brat easily defeated Democrat Jack Trammell in the conservative district in Tuesday’s general election.
In Maryland, The Washington Post and Baltimore Sun surveyed the race in early October, finding Brown ahead in the high single digits. But the only other phone polls came from the state GOP or Hogan’s campaign.
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And here is a comparison of final results to RCP averages in the 11 Senate races judged to be "toss-ups" or "lean republican/dem":
| State | RCP Average | Actual Result | Dem Skew |
| Virginia | Warner (D) +9.7 | Warner (D) +0.8 | Dem +8.9 |
| Alaska | Sullivan (R) +2.4 | Sullivan (R) +3.7 | Dem +1.3 |
| Colorado | Gardner (R) +2.5 | Gardner (R) +2.9 | Dem +0.4 |
| Georgia | Perdue (R) +3.0 | Perdue (R) +7.9 | Dem +4.9 |
| Iowa | Ernst (R) +2.3 | Ernst (R) +8.5 | Dem +6.2 |
| Kansas | Orman (D) +0.8 | Roberts (R) +10.8 | Dem +11.6 |
| Louisiana | Landrieu (D) +5.7 | Landrieu (D) +1.2 | Dem +4.5 |
| North Carolina | Hagan (D) +0.7 | Tillis (R) +1.7 | Dem +2.4 |
| Arkansas | Cotton (R) +7.0 | Cotton (R) +17.0 | Dem +10.0 |
| Kentucky | McConnell (R) +7.2 | McConnell (R) +15.5 | Dem +8.3 |
| New Hampshire | Shaheen (D) +0.8 | Shaheen (D) +3.2 | Dem -2.4 |
| Average | | | Dem +5.1 |
A number of governor races were also badly skewed in favor of the Dems, including Kansas, Illinois, Massachussettes, Connecticut, and Maryland.
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I've never been more sure that mir is dumb.
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It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races scewed Democrat by 6-10 points. :surprised:
That isn't at all true and easily verifiable. You are a compulsive liar.
Ummm.Would you simply believe this Politco piece? http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-midterms-polls-112593.html (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2014-midterms-polls-112593.html)
The polls were wrong. And so were the predictions about how the polls would be wrong. Instead of being biased against Democrats, who still hoped they could overcome modest deficits in a number of states, the surveys of the 2014 Senate landscape turned out to have significantly underestimated Republicans.
The GOP won resoundingly in races where it led only narrowly in the polls, and the party also put into play contests its own strategists thought would be out of reach. Democrats, who had insisted the polls were stacked against them, were crushed in races they thought were competitive.
The results were another black eye for pollsters in what are already some tough times. Just five months after then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s surprise ouster, it was another out-of-nowhere Virginia race that left political observers scratching their heads.
And as Americans become even harder to reach by phone – and emerging methodologies, such as Internet polling, remain unproven – the poor performance of pollsters this year casts serious doubt on the reliability of surveys during the 2016 presidential race.
Republicans nearly swept the 10 Senate races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report on Election Day, winning seven of the 10 outright – they lost New Hampshire, Alaska remains undecided and Louisiana is going to a runoff.
But it wasn’t that Republicans won so many of the most competitive races — it was how much they won by.
Tom Cotton (Ark.), David Perdue (Ga.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Pat Roberts (Kan.) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) all blew out their opponents, despite polls showing much closer contests.
...
In Arkansas, Cotton beat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by a 17-point margin. That capped a startling end to Pryor’s once-charmed political career – Republicans didn’t even run a candidate against him six years ago. The breadth of Cotton’s victory was all the more impressive when stacked against the freshman GOP congressman’s 7-point lead in the final RealClearPolitics average on Election Day. (Credit goes to the University of Arkansas, whose 13-point spread for Cotton represented the only survey to show him leading Pryor by more than 8 points.)
In Georgia, Perdue cleared the 50-percent threshold to avoid a runoff and romped over Democrat Michelle Nunn, 53 percent to 45 percent. But the final RCP average showed Perdue with just a 3-point lead in the polls.
While polls didn’t project Perdue’s margin, they did show him closing in the final weeks of the campaign. Nunn was tied or led in seven consecutive mid-October polls, but Perdue claimed the late momentum, leading in nine of the final 10 polls. Still, no survey showed him with a lead larger than four points.
Iowa’s Joni Ernst was yet another Republican underestimated by the polls: The final RCP average had her up by 2.3 points, far lower than the 8.5-point margin by which she beat Democratic Rep. oscar Braley.
The average is a little misleading, however. Most polls showed the race tied, or Ernst with the slightest of edges. But the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted by West Des Moines-based pollster J. Ann Selzer, put Ernst up by a 7-point margin, 51 percent to 44 percent. Ernst won, 52 percent to 44 percent.
Democrats pilloried Selzer’s poll, pointing out – with some justification, given the other seven surveys conducted over the final week showed results that ranged from Braley ahead by 1 to Ernst up by 3. But Selzer, who has polled for the Register for decades and most recently accurately predicted President Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, proved again why she is the gold standard in the Hawkeye State.
Kansas was always a difficult dynamic for pollsters. Republicans haven’t lost a Senate election there since the Great Depression, and independent Greg Orman — who doesn’t have a natural constituency — presents a unique challenge.
But the polls, both public and private, missed badly. Orman entered Election Day with a negligible, 0.8-point lead in the RCP average. Not only did GOP Sen. Pat Roberts win by nearly 11 points, but Republican Gov. Sam Brownback – whom some GOPers had left for dead – also won reelection.
Polls in Kentucky had moved toward Mitch McConnell in recent weeks, but no survey showed the likely new Senate majority leader up double digits, let alone leading by the 15.5-point margin by which he beat Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes on Tuesday.
In Louisiana, the RCP average showed Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 5.7 points ahead of GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy. While both candidates still made the runoff, Landrieu’s margin was just one point.
Polls in three other competitive Senate races – Alaska, Colorado and North Carolina – also exhibited a Democratic bias. While the difference was less dramatic, Sen.-elect Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) victory is considered a modest surprise because of Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan’s slight lead in the polls.
In only one of the 10 most competitive Senate races were polls too optimistic for Republicans: New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen won with a larger cushion than polls had indicated.
Virginia wasn’t on anyone’s watch-list going into Tuesday, with polls — outside of a survey from GOP robopollster Vox Populi — showing Democratic Sen. Mark Warner with a comfortable lead. Warner had a lead of 9.7 points in the final RCP average; he’s currently up by less than a point as a possible recount looms.
Part of the problem with Virginia — and neighboring Maryland, where Republican Larry Hogan was the upset winner of the state’s gubernatorial race — was an overall lack of public telephone polling. Two colleges polled Virginia Senate in the final two weeks, finding Warner ahead by 12 and 7 points.
Virginia was the scene of the most shocking upset of the entire cycle, when Cantor went down — by a lot, and to the humiliation of his unprepared campaign — to virtual unknown Dave Brat in the GOP primary. Brat easily defeated Democrat Jack Trammell in the conservative district in Tuesday’s general election.
In Maryland, The Washington Post and Baltimore Sun surveyed the race in early October, finding Brown ahead in the high single digits. But the only other phone polls came from the state GOP or Hogan’s campaign.
Yes fuckhead, you lied just like I said. Even using your posts here there were all of 4 polls that skewed democrat by 6% or more 4. There is no scope at all that you can use where four equals many. Not to mention that 3 of those 4 results, they got right. They fell into your dumb perimeters in 4 out of 54 races that they tracked and missed 1 of 54. Many races :facepalm: The pollsters did fine as evidenced by everyone projecting that the Republicans would take over the senate and the Democrats playing the blame game as early as last weekend. Greg Orman isn't a democrat nor does he have a D next to his name on RCP. Like I said you are a pathological liar.
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Yes fuckhead, you lied just like I said. Even using your posts here there were all of 4 polls that skewed democrat by 6% or more 4. There is no scope at all that you can use where four equals many. Not to mention that 3 of those 4 results, they got right. They fell into your dumb perimeters in 4 out of 54 races that they tracked and missed 1 of 54. Many races :facepalm: The pollsters did fine as evidenced by everyone projecting that the Republicans would take over the senate and the Democrats playing the blame game as early as last weekend. Greg Orman isn't a democrat nor does he have a D next to his name on RCP. Like I said you are a pathological liar.
The really funny part is that you're being serious. You should make your case to liberal-leaning pollster PPP - they seem to think that they and other pollsters blew it.
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls · Nov 4
And also that polls finding electorate closer to 12 than 10 (including us) were probably off on that. May have needed stricter screen (2/2)0 replies8 retweets3 favorites
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls · Nov 4
Think the reason for polls being too pro-Dem probably a mix of undecideds breaking away from President's party (1 of 2)0 replies13 retweets2 favorites
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls · Nov 4
Part of the explanation as we try to figure out what happened in NC and elsewhere in the coming days- Obama approval w/undecided was 13/640 replies30 retweets7 favorites
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls · Nov 4
Clearly a rough night for us and much of the polling industry and we'll own that and try to figure out what happened in the coming days
https://twitter.com/ppppolls (https://twitter.com/ppppolls)
Again, in the polls of the Senate races that really mattered - the 11 races with at least a chance of flipping - the polling averages skewed Democrat by more than 4 points in 7 of them. Half of those polls were skewed by more than 6 points. The average skew for all 11 races was 5.1 points. In only 1 of those races were the polls (narrowly) skewed Republican.
And, again, this does not include the numerous governor races which were also badly skewed.
But I'm the "pathological liar." :lol:
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Keep moving those chains. You keep exaggerating or outright lying, I prove your bullshit and you try to reconfigure your stance.
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Keep moving those chains. You keep exaggerating or outright lying, I prove your bullshit and you try to reconfigure your stance.
The ruling on the field is that KSUdub is "trying to reconfigure his stance." That call is under further review.
It was not a very good night for most pollsters. The RCP polling averages in many races skewed Democrat by 6-10 points. :surprised:
After further review, there is no foul. KSUdub said that "many races skewed Democrat by 6-10 points" and that's exactly what happened, so much so that even a well-respected polling firm publicly apologized for it, and other firms, being so far off. MIR is a dumbass who doesn't know when to quit digging.
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.minus.com%2Fix88KYmcyjAmZ.gif&hash=481f83124360dd93d521ea3d93ab8b9bfa1b5cc0)
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Make that 54. DSCC is pulling up stakes in the LA runoff. http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/392277/dscc-decides-louisiana-runoff-isnt-worth-18-million-jim-geraghty (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/392277/dscc-decides-louisiana-runoff-isnt-worth-18-million-jim-geraghty)
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Does anyonr know what happen to the Obamacare condom Queen. I thought she was running for office in CA. If so, her party balloon probably broke, and she lost. (Pregnant pause) Oh boo hoo.
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Sandra Fluke. Jousted verbally with Limbaugh about free condoms, and became a media darling. she lost her race for CA state senate by 22%. Her district is wes Los Angeles; ground zero for liberal nuts.
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi688.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fvv249%2Fthekansascitykid%2FgyL7OSo91_zps8b9bb777.jpeg&hash=bdf2561779f7c1e480c0f83da5c192c57a551b07) (http://s688.photobucket.com/user/thekansascitykid/media/gyL7OSo91_zps8b9bb777.jpeg.html)
No one told me he was such a huge boss. I would have voted for him :frown: