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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: WonderMeal on May 15, 2014, 07:18:35 AM
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In an effort to cope with the departure of #LiFE, I wanted to use statistics to compare him to other great KSU QBs so I knew exactly what we're losing. The answer? A lot.
TLDR Version: It's possible (likely?) that if Sams had been the full-time starter in 2013 that he would have been the best K-State QB in history by the end of 2015.
Out of 10 comparable seasons of modern KSU QBs, 2013 Daniel Sams had the highest completion percentage, and was 6th place in passing yds, 6th place YPA, 1st rushing yds, 1st in YPR, 3rd in QB rating.
By comparison, Waters was 3rd in completion percentage, 2nd in passing yds, 2nd in YPA, 10th in rushing yds, 10th in YPR, and 2nd in QB rating.
Methodology: Since #LiFE attempted 53 passes in 2013 and rushed 152 times, I used the historical averages of KSU QBs to determine what their effectiveness would have been if they had been given the exact same number of pass/rush attempts as Our Guy. Another way to say it: take each KSU QB's season and reducing their number of pass/rush attempts to the exact same number of opportunities Sams had last year.
Disclaimer: I am not _FAN, nor am I trying to be. He is the best, I am not. I recognize that the methodology used is not perfect. But given the information that Google provides and the amount of time I had, this is the best I could come up with. And I think this methodology is strong enough to develop real conclusions about what we're losing w/ Sams.
Why I did this: Like most of you who aren't total idiots, I had a sad when Sams announced he was transferring, but I wanted to be as objective as possible and try to determine what losing Sams (and not starting him in 2013) actually meant. I also wanted to try look at the Sams/Waters debate through an identical lens. (Obviously that's not totally possible, but this isn't a bad start.)
In the tables below, Our Guy will be highlighted in lavender, because he undoubtedly would look adorable in lavender. Go 'Cats.
Table 1: Statistics of Each KSU QB if they had been given the same opportunities as @DS4ms:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1144.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fo486%2FWonderMeal%2FQB1.png&hash=41a6fbad71cb59720ecdcdbe5cb0e14232403433) (http://s1144.photobucket.com/user/WonderMeal/media/QB1.png.html)
Table 2: Ranking each KSU QB season against each other in every statistical category:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1144.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fo486%2FWonderMeal%2FQB2.png&hash=041ca3b549250697da355b4558f0d470d6c43f9c) (http://s1144.photobucket.com/user/WonderMeal/media/QB2.png.html)
Table 3: KSU QB season, by golf score
This one is obviously a little silly and is more for fun than anything else, but I wanted to see where Sams's 2013 season would rank if you added up all the overall rankings in Table 2, with the lowest score being the best season. (Like golf--lowest score wins.) How did Sams stack up? Pretty good! (Better than Waters.)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1144.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fo486%2FWonderMeal%2FQB3.png&hash=883b79c09f5b973be40e17a8bd092d202169b51b) (http://s1144.photobucket.com/user/WonderMeal/media/QB3.png.html)
Sams vs. Waters:
Waters can move the ball better through the air (3rd in comp%, 2nd in yards passing, 2nd in YPA), whereas Sams is middle of the pack (1st in comp%, 6th in yards passing, 6th in YPA). No surprise.
The big difference comes on the ground. While Sams was a middle of the pack passer and is ranked #1 in both rush yards and YPR, Waters is 10th in rushing. Out of 10.
To put that another way: Sams is a good passer and elite runner. Waters is a great passer and the worst runner (compared to the other 9 seasons).
Conclusion:
Sams as a sophomore was a better rusher in the opportunities given him than any K-State QB ever (including all three of Roberson's season as a starter), and was a comparable passer to Bishop as a junior, or Klein and Beasley as seniors.
With his production last season and potential for growth over the next two years, I cannot believe we didn't start him full-time in 2013 and watch him lead us to back-to-back Dr. Pepps/Searses in 2014 and 2015. I had hoped that doing this analysis would help me get over Sams leaving, but it had just made me even more sad.
RIP, #LiFE. You are loved.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstream1.gifsoup.com%2Fview1%2F4098894%2Fdaniel-sams-life-o.gif&hash=852ef3b60242f8330b5815b609c7a8db0cb601c1)
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Great. Now do turnovers; which is probably the most imporant stat to HCBS.
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now do marc dunn if marc dunn had tyler lockett to throw to. also marc dunn loves iowa state and has hairy arms in this scenario.
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now do marc dunn if marc dunn had tyler lockett to throw to. also marc dunn loves iowa state and has hairy arms in this scenario.
Both Dunn and Ell were crap QB's in 2001. Our leading receiever was certified stud Aaron Lockett and he only gained 357 rec yards on the season. I'm not sure having TLBL, Jordy, or even Calvin Johnson would've done much for that team's passing game.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/kansas-state/2001.html#all_rushing_and_receiving (http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/kansas-state/2001.html#all_rushing_and_receiving)
The next season Dunn and ER combined for a whopping 1,900+ yards through the air. I know you guys don't like Waters but there's not much overlap between him and Dunn.
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:redX:
Am I the only one who can't see the charts?
Also curious about turnovers.
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:redX:
Am I the only one who can't see the charts?
Also curious about turnovers.
i cant see them either!!! and i really want to.
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i'm pretty sure nobody can see them, but everybody was too embarrassed to admit it because they thought they were probably the only one
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:redX:
Am I the only one who can't see the charts?
Also curious about turnovers.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.fjcdn.com%2Fpictures%2FWhen_094004_665696.jpg&hash=53362b8eb4d4e8c21df4105450571ecd9f0df2f6)
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Looks like WonderMeal closed the eff out of this case, FanMan
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turnovers, time of possession, average drive length, starting field position, and I could go on and on.
I think (hope) Snyder has finally come to realize that your QB can't be your only weapon that you turn into 'sketi brains and thus ruin your chance at a title game appearance. You need a healthy stud QB all season long and multiple offensive threats. Klein was a great power runner and learned to to an efficient passer. Baylor tho. Waters is a great passer and will learn to be an efficient runner. This works as long as you have enough other threats. Sams great runner, maybe on his way to being efficient enough as a passer.
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:redX:
Am I the only one who can't see the charts?
Also curious about turnovers.
i cant see them either!!! and i really want to.
me either. I assumed it was because I'm at work...but it looks like many are having issues. I WANT TO SEE! I WANT TO SEE!
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the truth is that he actually didnt make any charts and he intentionally put broken image links in there so we would think that he had made charts too beautiful to even view
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Sams being routinely subbed out on 3rd and longs most likely helped his passing numbers quite a bit.
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Sams being routinely subbed out on 3rd and longs most likely helped his passing numbers quite a bit.
careful, man. that's sounding pretty racisty*
*sarcasm
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I mean, I'm one of the biggest Daniel homers on this board, but do you know nothing of how sample size affects statistics?
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I mean, I'm one of the biggest Daniel homers on this board, but do you know nothing of how sample size affects statistics?
Ok, if we were to put a lot (the appropriate amount) of emphasis on sample size, we'd only get to talk about like 0.2% of the statistics we talk about.
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Sorry about the images--I could see the images at home and at work, so I'm not sure what's going on. I've updated the original post to include photobucket links, so hopefully that will work? Let me know if it doesn't.
To address some other points that have been raised:
Like ArchE and ChiCat mentioned, there are a lot of other stat comparisons that I would like to include (TOP first among them--especially since I remember some crazy stat like Sams never having a 3-and-out), but there wasn't a lot of easily-available historical info on Google. I'll leave that to @ksu_FAN and his databases. But to address @ChiCat's point about Sams being taken out on a lot of 3rd downs--you also have to remember that Lockett wasn't available for something like 58% of his passing attempts, so that obviously affected his passing numbers as well.
I left passing TDs, rushing TDs, and turnovers off on purpose, for a few reasons. First, time. Second, pretty much all the QBs listed in the comparison had the benefit of playing four cupcakes and bottom-feeder conference teams, whereas the bulk of Sams's playing time came against teams that went to the Cotton and Fiesta bowls. (Would Sams have had 3 TDs and 3 INTs if he had played the whole game against UMass? Maybe, but I doubt it.) So the level of competition is unfairly biased against Sams. Third, turnovers and TDs are a little more random than things like YPA--especially in such a limited sample size. I think most people assume that Sams's real or perceived propensity to turn the ball over is a big reason why Waters started, and I don't doubt that. But if he had been given an entire season at QB against studs and cupcakes alike, I bet #LiFE's TD/INT numbers would look a lot more like Ell/Bishop/Klein. If one of you wants to run the numbers, go for it.
And to address @Metalhead's comment--no, I have never heard about how sample size affects statistics. Interesting, if true.
And regardless of what the actual p-value is for all of these numbers, I think we can safely draw this conclusion by looking at the stats: given where he was as a sophomore, had Sams progressed similar to other KSU QBs (which I think is a safe assumption, given his work ethic/EMAW/studliness), he would have left campus as one of our top two or three QBs of all time. And to think we threw that possibility away so we could go to the BWW Bowl this year instead of the Holiday bowl really hurts.
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I think randomness is more of an issue than sample size. For example, I don't know of a reason not to think that Sams wasn't mostly used in situations that the coaches thought were best suited to his abilities. So, I have a hard time thinking that we can simply extrapolate his stats to full seasons. Isn't this sort of concern an issue with stats for backups in general?
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Table 2: Ranking each KSU QB season against each other in every statistical category:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1144.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fo486%2FWonderMeal%2FQB2.png&hash=041ca3b549250697da355b4558f0d470d6c43f9c) (http://s1144.photobucket.com/user/WonderMeal/media/QB2.png.html)
So, out of a group of known dual threats, you concluded that arguably the most prolific passer of the bunch, in his first season D1 football, was the worst runner of the sample? Man, did you major in statistics? Because that is profound stuff. Tom Brady would be 11th on the list if you included him. Does that make him a worse QB than Daniel Sams or any of those guys? Come on, man.
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hey, wondermeal, thanks for the charts. Do they prove your argument? I couldn't say, but I appreciate your time.
#1cat
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Good job good effort wondermeal
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hey, wondermeal, thanks for the charts. Do they prove your argument? I couldn't say, but I appreciate your time.
#1cat
Yeah, thanks for putting it together. Just seems like comparing apples to a glass of water.
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hey, wondermeal, thanks for the charts. Do they prove your argument? I couldn't say, but I appreciate your time.
#1cat
Agree completely. (BTW, that was a very nice thing to say.)
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I don't think you can assume that any qb will progress like our others. The previous progressions were the result of lots of time in film room, which I heard SAMs was not putting in. I think the reason he is no longer here is mixed in with the reason that we can't assume a progression like previous qb's.
I wish he would never have moved to wr. It was crazy to think he would've been able to quickly rise to top of depth chart against more experienced guys. Plus, for a guy who ran the ball some 30 times against bu, I don't think he was ever going to be happy catching 3 passes a game. We should've kept developing a package for him to run at qb for 1-2 series per game.
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:barf:
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Oh hey look, these two terrible posters are ruining another thread. Nothing to see here, folks. :rolleyes:
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I heard that Sams was a mother rough ridin' siskel AND ebert in that film room.
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I heard that Sams was a mother rough ridin' siskel AND ebert in that film room.
I wish. Then the staff wouldn't have been forced to give the nod to Jake.
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For the record, I was a bigger supporter of all those QB's included in the analysis than I am of Jake. How, though, do you give ER3 a pass for throwing balls into the ground 5 yards short of open receivers while shunning Waters for missing some short throws? Some of the most frustrating plays that involved Waters last year were situations our staff put him in or when Toe Miller volleyball set a pass off his helmet straight to the other team. Now, not all of the mistakes that Waters made were the fault of someone else and neither were Sams' mistakes...but is there not room to be excited about the potential we have with Waters? His athleticism is adequate but his throwing abilities will spare us from audible-ing to speed option left/right or a skettibrain QB dive every other play. Of course he's going to rank 10th on that list when it comes to running. Let the kid come in, settled down a bit after his big boy season of football, and be a much steadier version of a good QB we saw last year.
Daniel is electric but could he last an entire season? To maximize his effectiveness, you run...A LOT. I'm not convinced Daniel could have lasted a season being used the way our staff would use him.
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is there not room to be excited about the potential we have with Waters?
No
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For the record, I was a bigger supporter of all those QB's included in the analysis than I am of Jake. How, though, do you give ER3 a pass for throwing balls into the ground 5 yards short of open receivers while shunning Waters for missing some short throws? Some of the most frustrating plays that involved Waters last year were situations our staff put him in or when Toe Miller volleyball set a pass off his helmet straight to the other team. Now, not all of the mistakes that Waters made were the fault of someone else and neither were Sams' mistakes...but is there not room to be excited about the potential we have with Waters? His athleticism is adequate but his throwing abilities will spare us from audible-ing to speed option left/right or a skettibrain QB dive every other play. Of course he's going to rank 10th on that list when it comes to running. Let the kid come in, settled down a bit after his big boy season of football, and be a much steadier version of a good QB we saw last year.
Daniel is electric but could he last an entire season? To maximize his effectiveness, you run...A LOT. I'm not convinced Daniel could have lasted a season being used the way our staff would use him.
God, shut up.
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is there not room to be excited about the potential we have with Waters?
No
Dumb.
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is there not room to be excited about the potential we have with Waters?
No
Dumb.
The thing that worries me about Waters is we have one real threat around him. He can't make plays on his own and we have one legit WR for teams to worry about. We have the worst RB sitaution in the big 12 and our 2,3, and 4th WR are guys like Sexton, Klein and Burton. I doubt any of them run below a 4.6.
How hard is it going to be for teams to take away Lockett when he is literally the only guy on our offense that can hurt you? We saw in the Baylor and OSU games last year that Waters was helpless without his dynamic WR's and Sams at least gave us a chance to get something done.
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is there not room to be excited about the potential we have with Waters?
No
Dumb.
The thing that worries me about Waters is we have one real threat around him. He can't make plays on his own and we have one legit WR for teams to worry about. We have the worst RB sitaution in the big 12 and our 2,3, and 4th WR are guys like Sexton, Klein and Burton. I doubt any of them run below a 4.6.
How hard is it going to be for teams to take away Lockett when he is literally the only guy on our offense that can hurt you? We saw in the Baylor and OSU games last year that Waters was helpless without his dynamic WR's and Sams at least gave us a chance to get something done.
Just my opinion, but I think you're vastly underestimating Tyler, Jake, and the scheme doctor.
I still miss Daniel tho.
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I think we're wildly underestimating how adequate of a RB could emerge from this competition. Don't fear the unknown. Further, Burton most certainly runs a 4.5 and is a great athlete with impressive size. Don't forget just how young he still is - he'll be good for us. Andre Davis, anyone? Sexton will be better than ever and he has pretty good chemistry with Jake. He's nifty and finds soft spots in zones pretty dang well.
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I think we're wildly underestimating how adequate of a RB could emerge from this competition. Don't fear the unknown. Further, Burton most certainly runs a 4.5 and is a great athlete with impressive size. Don't forget just how young he still is - he'll be good for us. Andre Davis, anyone? Sexton will be better than ever and he has pretty good chemistry with Jake. He's nifty and finds soft spots in zones pretty dang well.
Looks like we're gonna need a little more PI on this one, guise...
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I think we're wildly underestimating how adequate of a RB could emerge from this competition. Don't fear the unknown. Further, Burton most certainly runs a 4.5 and is a great athlete with impressive size. Don't forget just how young he still is - he'll be good for us. Andre Davis, anyone? Sexton will be better than ever and he has pretty good chemistry with Jake. He's nifty and finds soft spots in zones pretty dang well.
:opcat:
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Sexton will be better than ever
WOW!
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Sexton will be better than ever
WOW!
Well, ever is pretty good, to be fair.
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Uhm, guys... I'm pretty certain that bird hunting is a pretty great way to build chemistry.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeSxJe2CcAA8qMf.jpg)
So SPE just might have a point.
Just sayin'.
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Uhm, guys... I'm pretty certain that bird hunting is a pretty great way to build chemistry.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeSxJe2CcAA8qMf.jpg)
So SPE just might have a point.
Just sayin'.
So that's our football team?
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So that's our football team?
At least 2 of them, but the point of my post was the unique chemistry that comes from walking miles of NE Kansas fields together while seeking pheasant and quail. :D
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I think we're wildly underestimating how adequate of a RB could emerge from this competition. Don't fear the unknown. Further, Burton most certainly runs a 4.5 and is a great athlete with impressive size. Don't forget just how young he still is - he'll be good for us. Andre Davis, anyone? Sexton will be better than ever and he has pretty good chemistry with Jake. He's nifty and finds soft spots in zones pretty dang well.
:opcat:
If you think that's racist, kick rocks.
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Sexton will be better than ever
WOW!
Well, ever is pretty good, to be fair.
He's definitely good enough to void the voiced concern that we have no viable options other than Lockett. Hyperbole much?
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So that's our football team?
At least 2 of them, but the point of my post was the unique chemistry that comes from walking miles of NE Kansas fields together while seeking pheasant and quail. :D
maybe they should have invited Daniel
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That picture looks pretty racist to me. I only see whitey.
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I've decided, WE ARE GOING TO BE FINE
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Its pretty rough ridin' stupid to not assume that Waters is going to be at least moderately improved from last year.
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Curry Sexton?@csexton_14ยท27 mins
I've been asked at least ten times this week if I'm a place kicker
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What sort of season does KSU need to have for Waters signing here to not have been a horrible point in time in EMAW football history?
Last year and this year vs. whatever we'd have done with Sams as #1 QB from January 2013 going forward through last year, this year, and his senior year.
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What sort of season does KSU need to have for Waters signing here to not have been a horrible point in time in EMAW football history?
Last year and this year vs. whatever we'd have done with Sams as #1 QB from January 2013 going forward through last year, this year, and his senior year.
Nothing short of a natty will make this OK
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What sort of season does KSU need to have for Waters signing here to not have been a horrible point in time in EMAW football history?
Last year and this year vs. whatever we'd have done with Sams as #1 QB from January 2013 going forward through last year, this year, and his senior year.
Once upon a time I did stuff like this with Nick Williams and Dez Willingham not transferring. I don't mean to insult Sams, but inevitably, you will over value the counterfactual because it is a beautiful dream.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bn7n0edIIAAGOk2.jpg)
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I agree that the legend of Daniel Sams has the potential to grow to Bishop-like heights (especially if Ertz struggles) but there is no comparison between the track record of Wooly and 2nd tier Texas recruits vs Snyds and first year QBs with stats like stats like what Daniel put up.
For me, anything it will honestly take 10-2 for me to feel like this was the right decision.
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I don't think we will ever get the complete whole picture of the situation. Jake and Sams both looked promising to be honest, and both had good and bad moments. You could tell last year was a growing year for both and I suppose the coaches just didn't feel there was room at the end of the progression for two starting QBs. For me it was really more of the intangibles. With Sams I felt like you were getting Bishop or Roberson- that intangible spark that gets the team going and somehow pulls out a win. With Waters I sometimes had flashbacks to Coffman. I dunno.
That said, I wish Sams the best and am excited to see how well Jake can do with an inducted HOF coach on the sideline.
:lynchmob: