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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: sys on September 02, 2013, 02:37:14 PM
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it's been awhile.
anyways, i was pretty pessimistic today. i think mostly because of the reports that the partial-qualifier guard doesn't have much of a jumpshot combined with the asst coach tweeting about how if you aren't a great shooter and and can't handle, you're marginal. i know that was in the nba, but i think it mostly applies to ncaa too. lots of marginal guards on this team.
i probably know less about this team at this point in the year than any kstate team in the last decade, though. so i could more easily be wrong than has been the case in the past.
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It will sure be a strange year!
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I don't see why Weber couldn't get as much out of this year's team as he could last year's. Not that he will, but he could. I realize people think Angel was basically Allen Iverson, but he was actually just a cog in the system.
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Oh, and, I mean, the system didn't require any dribbling wizardry.
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Distribution cog that did its job really really well.
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Does that mean he's not marginal? It wasn't part of the original concept.
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The Will Spradling Project will come to fruition in like three months. It's going to be real, in the full shot clock expires without a quality look way.
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Also, no, he isn't marginal, imo.
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chum1, don't be carnes. thanks.
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please.
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My question is this: What's the difference between last year's players and this year's players with regard to being marginal? I don't see much of one.
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My question is this: What's the difference between last year's players and this year's players with regard to being marginal? I don't see much of one.
Please don't say that, because I fear it's true. The difference is these guys can't win the conference.
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What's the difference between last year's players and this year's players with regard to being marginal?
i think it's going to be about 10 wins.
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What's the difference between last year's players and this year's players with regard to being marginal?
i think it's going to be about 10 wins.
If so, it won't be on account of marginal players. That just wouldn't add up. So, either you have some other reason for thinking this or you're just being paranoid.
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What's the difference between last year's players and this year's players with regard to being marginal?
i think it's going to be about 10 wins.
If so, it won't be on account of marginal players. That just wouldn't add up. So, either you have some other reason for thinking this or you're just being paranoid.
Experience tho.
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Anyone want to add up the minutes of last year's players prior to last season and this year's players prior to this season so we can compare?
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15.6 and 11.4 are what Rodney and Angel averaged, points per game on a team that averaged 69 ppg. 39% of our scoring in just two ppl. Rod is one of the top 25 most prolific scorers in our history.
Not a marginal loss.
As far as Assists, as of right now, Angel has 90 more career assists than Shane(who has played a yr longer than Angel), and 91 more than Will(who is also a year further into his career and started many games his frosh season),
None of that seems marginal as far as replacing them with role players.
Our scoring avg went from 72 ppg to 69ppg from 2011-12 to 2012-13, and we just lost 39% of our scoring without even factoring Tay, JO, etc.
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If so, it won't be on account of marginal players. That just wouldn't add up. So, either you have some other reason for thinking this or you're just being paranoid.
yes, difference in players. i think it adds up. art was 6th in asst rate among high-major guards, and only two of the guards with higher rates had lower to rates (burke's asst/to stats are ridiculous, btw). he also hit 80% of fts and ca. 35% of 3s. you either don't appreciate how good he is, or are pretending not to. he made everyone on the team better. same on defense. i'm expecting the players that will be replacing mcgruder and dob's minutes to be significant downgrades as well.
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15.6 and 11.4 are what Rodney and Angel averaged, points per game on a team that averaged 69 ppg. 39% of our scoring in just two ppl. Rod is one of the top 25 most prolific scorers in our history.
Not a marginal loss.
As far as Assists, as of right now, Angel has 90 more career assists than Shane(who has played a yr longer than Angel), and 91 more than Will(who is also a year further into his career and started many games his frosh season),
None of that seems marginal as far as replacing them with role players.
Our scoring avg went from 72 ppg to 69ppg from 2011-12 to 2012-13, and we just lost 39% of our scoring without even factoring Tay, JO, etc.
When players leave, they don't take shot attempts with them. And you can redistribute them however you want.
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If so, it won't be on account of marginal players. That just wouldn't add up. So, either you have some other reason for thinking this or you're just being paranoid.
yes, difference in players. i think it adds up. art was 6th in asst rate among high-major guards, and only two of the guards with higher rates had lower to rates (burke's asst/to stats are ridiculous, btw). he also hit 80% of fts and ca. 35% of 3s. you either don't appreciate how good he is, or are pretending not to. he made everyone on the team better. same on defense. i'm expecting the players that will be replacing mcgruder and dob's minutes to be significant downgrades as well.
When you talk about marginal players, I think about talent distribution. Say, like, the top and bottom 10 percent are very small groups and tthe middle is just a clusterfuck of marginal players. All of our players come from the middle.
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I bet we have a player next year who ranks in the top six of some narrow, arbitrarily chosen category.
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Turnovers.
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How do you know the newcomers will be marginal, chum1? What if they're worse than marginal?
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How do you know the newcomers will be marginal, chum1? What if they're worse than marginal?
Probability.
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Still, I also think there is a difference between an 11% marginal player and an 89% marginal player in your "marginal" distribution.
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The difference is less obvious when you compare groups of players against other groups of players where each player falls somewhere in that range. Initially, I was thinking that what the assistant coach was saying was that almost none of the players met his standards. Now, I'm thinking that he meant that almost all of them do. So, we've got no worries.
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who will replace rodney and angel's production and do you think those indiviudals will produce at the same rate - further, if those individuals were on the roster last year, who will replace their production (and so on and so on).
i don't believe in the talent returning (or entering), therefore I don't believe they will produce like last year. marginally or otherwise.
isn't it just that simple?
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Youth is going to be a bigger issue then talent with this team. To compound that factor oscar is really bad a getting freshmen ready to play day one. One of the big questions is how long does oscar let this team fail with the motion offense before switching to a ton of ball screens for Jevon.
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This is probably true of most offenses, but when oscar doesn't have three-point shooters his teams struggle mightily to win games. More than average I'd say. His two worst records at Illinois (2007-08: 16-19 and 2011-12: 17-15) were also his two worst three-point shooting teams (31.9% and 30.4% respectively). His next worst three-point shooting team was 2009-10 with 34.0%, which was the only other season he didn't make the tournament. Fun fact, at Illinois if oscar's team shot below 34.9% from three they didn't make the tournament.
The ksu purple go cats last season were at 36.2%, which was only bested by one of oscar's Illinois squads: 39.2% during the NC game season. Point being, I haven't read of any of the incoming youngbloods being known as good outside shooters. The primary reason that the wheels fell off for oscar on the court in his last season at Illinois was that he recruited a bunch of athletic guards that couldn't shoot the three well and that was with a lottery pick at center. This would be my primary concern heading into next season for the fighting purples, just ahead of lack of height and depth in the paint.
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well guys i don't know how good we're going to be next season but i hope we're good- really good
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Well guys no point in recruiting any more. We're getting the same marginal players either way.
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Well guys no point in recruiting any more. We're getting the same marginal players either way.
i would say the staff has already reached this conclusion
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who will replace rodney and angel's production and do you think those indiviudals will produce at the same rate - further, if those individuals were on the roster last year, who will replace their production (and so on and so on).
i don't believe in the talent returning (or entering), therefore I don't believe they will produce like last year. marginally or otherwise.
isn't it just that simple?
There are many scenarios under which we could have worse talent this year yet a better season than last. There are also many scenarios under which we could have worse talent this year yet better individual production than last. There are also scenarios under which we get better individual production this year yet have a worse season than last. You get the idea. It's a complex issue, not a simple one.
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There are way more scenarios where worse talent leads to worse seasons and worse production
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who will replace rodney and angel's production and do you think those indiviudals will produce at the same rate - further, if those individuals were on the roster last year, who will replace their production (and so on and so on).
i don't believe in the talent returning (or entering), therefore I don't believe they will produce like last year. marginally or otherwise.
isn't it just that simple?
There are many scenarios under which we could have worse talent this year yet a better season than last. There are also many scenarios under which we could have worse talent this year yet better individual production than last. There are also scenarios under which we get better individual production this year yet have a worse season than last. You get the idea. It's a complex issue, not a simple one.
fine. run your monte carlo simulation and let me know what is says. my catzacker modeling says that (perceived) less talented and less experienced players will not produce the same as (perceived) more talented more experienced players.
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One thing I am absolutely confident of: This team will be brutal to watch and Shane will have at least 10-15 great meltdowns during the season.
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It just seems like sometimes we need a reminder that, while stars matter, we're not, in fact, talking about a 1:1 correlation between talent, whatever that is anyway, and wins - i.e. it is not that simple. Furthermore, I have no idea what basis you guys have for these year to year player comparisons or, more importantly, why you have such high confidence in it. I see things like people talking about players getting mentiond for just missing a top 150 list. Things like those don't actually constitute very much to go on, do they? Where does this high confidence in player comparisons come from?
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It just seems like sometimes we need a reminder that, while stars matter, we're not, in fact, talking about a 1:1 correlation between talent, whatever that is anyway, and wins - i.e. it is not that simple. Furthermore, I have no idea what basis you guys have for these year to year player comparisons or, more importantly, why you have such high confidence in it. I see things like people talking about players getting mentiond for just missing a top 150 list. Things like those don't actually constitute very much to go on, do they? Where does this high confidence in player comparisons come from?
I agree with some of what you are saying, but now you are shifting ground. It is much easier to project players in a program year-to-year than to project recruits outside of the top 25 to 50 which are significantly easier to project as solid contributors as their floor with varying ceilings.
If your point is that there is variance within player development in general, that's fine, but it isn't like "rough ridin' magnets how do they work?" We can get a pretty good idea of what to expect from players based on a pretty limited number of metrics once they have a year under their belt. I would guess that recruits are somewhat projectable in terms of the broad contours of the context of the roster of an NCAA tournament team.
Obviously outliers would still exist, but I think we can acknowledge that we might know a bit about why they exist (superior coaching/underrated recruits or poor coaching/overrated recruits).
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chum1, my conviction that art, mcgruder and dob were well above average big 12 players (in dob's case on a per minute basis) is much stronger than is my conviction that the incoming players are below average incoming big 12 freshmen (in fact, i have pretty high hopes for the partial qualifier).
however, the conclusion that there will be a significant dropoff is little altered if, in fact, the incoming freshmen are better than i expect.
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Thanks for the reminder, chum.
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Lack of experience is going to ass rape us. oscar has a guard oriented offense and we return EFFING Sprads. For crying out loud it took last year team half the season to figure out how to score and they had college basketball experience.
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chum1, my conviction that art, mcgruder and dob were well above average big 12 players (in dob's case on a per minute basis) is much stronger than is my conviction that the incoming players are below average incoming big 12 freshmen (in fact, i have pretty high hopes for the partial qualifier).
however, the conclusion that there will be a significant dropoff is little altered if, in fact, the incoming freshmen are better than i expect.
Is that true for all teams? 8/10 of these well above average players are gone.
All-Big 12 First Team Pos. Ht. Wt. Cl. Hometown/Previous School(s)
Ben McLemore, Kansas G 6-5 185 Fr. St. Louis, Mo./Christian Life Center [Texas]
Jeff Withey, Kansas C 7-0 235 Sr. San Diego, Calif./Horizon
Rodney McGruder, Kansas State G 6-4 205 Sr. Washington, D.C./Arlington Country Day [Fla.]
Romero Osby, Oklahoma F 6-8 232 Sr. Meridian, Miss./Mississippi State University
Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State G 6-4 225 Fr. Flower Mound, Texas/Marcus
All-Big 12 Second Team Pos. Ht. Wt. Cl. Hometown/Previous School(s)
Pierre Jackson, Baylor G 5-10 180 Sr. Las Vegas, Nev./Desert Pines/ College of Southern Idaho
Will Clyburn, Iowa State G 6-7 205 Sr. Detroit, Mich./Romulus/Marshalltown CC/Utah
Travis Releford, Kansas G 6-6 210 Sr. Kansas City, Mo./Bishop Miege
Angel Rodriguez, Kansas State G 5-11 180 So. San Juan, Puerto Rico/Krop [Fla.]
Markel Brown, Oklahoma State G 6-3 190 Jr. Alexandria, La./Peabody
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no, it isn't. there will be the same number of well above average players this year (although the value of the mean may be different), but i don't expect kstate to have as many (any) of them.
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I mean, we have one good basketball player coming back. One. Last year you could have argued for five. Martavious would be the second best player on this year's team.
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I mean, we have one good basketball player coming back. One. Last year you could have argued for five. Martavious would be the second best player on this year's team.
Everybody is sleeping on Gib, but his value is diminished because he is a post in oscar's offense.
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I mean, we have one good basketball player coming back. One. Last year you could have argued for five. Martavious would be the second best player on this year's team.
Everybody is sleeping on Gib, but his value is diminished because he is a post in oscar's offense.
That and he is way too undersized and not athletic enough to be consistently good in big twelve play. Not to say he won't have some success against similarly limited players, but he is what, the tenth best center in the conference? Worse?
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I mean, we have one good basketball player coming back. One. Last year you could have argued for five. Martavious would be the second best player on this year's team.
Everybody is sleeping on Gib, but his value is diminished because he is a post in oscar's offense.
That and he is way too undersized and not athletic enough to be consistently good in big twelve play. Not to say he won't have some success against similarly limited players, but he is what, the tenth best center in the conference? Worse?
With the way that Drew and Self stockpile big men, I'm assuming he's worse.
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I mean, we have one good basketball player coming back. One. Last year you could have argued for five. Martavious would be the second best player on this year's team.
Everybody is sleeping on Gib, but his value is diminished because he is a post in oscar's offense.
That and he is way too undersized and not athletic enough to be consistently good in big twelve play. Not to say he won't have some success against similarly limited players, but he is what, the tenth best center in the conference? Worse?
With the way that Drew and Self stockpile big men, I'm assuming he's worse.
Still sleeping. :Lolrun:
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
If it happens, what will you chock it up to?
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
If it happens, what will you chock it up to?
Mary Jane
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the win/loss differences will show up in conference, not out and it will start this year with kstate finishing under .500 for the first time since the 05-06 woolridge team.
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the win/loss differences will show up in conference, not out and it will start this year with kstate finishing under .500 for the first time since the 05-06 woolridge team.
If that happens, there will be some who will want oscar fired.
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Lol
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I fully support those of you who are not content settling for mediocrity. There is a power vacuum in this conference with UT falling off the edge of the world. There is an opening for second fiddle, and applications are being accepted RIGHT NOW. It's only a matter of time before Texas becomes consistently good, again, and I would prefer that KSU solidify themselves as the clear #2 in the conference before that happens. Think about how great it would be for KU and K-State to battle each other every year for the Big 12 crown. For me, it would help quite a bit, having lost our primary rival.
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I fully support those of you who are not content settling for mediocrity. There is a power vacuum in this conference with UT falling off the edge of the world. There is an opening for second fiddle, and applications are being accepted RIGHT NOW. It's only a matter of time before Texas becomes consistently good, again, and I would prefer that KSU solidify themselves as the clear #2 in the conference before that happens. Think about how great it would be for KU and K-State to battle each other every year for the Big 12 crown. For me, it would help quite a bit, having lost our primary rival.
agree, it would be great. most kstate fans and college fans in general just don't care about basketball. sad but true and infuriates me because i actually like basketball and baseball a lot. is what it is i guess.
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Spracne, pencil us in and we will see what we can do about oscar.
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Spracne, pencil us in and we will see what we can do about oscar.
Hopefully your donors didn't completely empty their pockets with the BASF project (we don't make a lot of the stadiums you build, we make a lot of the stadiums you build better), and hopefully they know some creative lawyers... We can do this.
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Farmers printing money these days. Were fine. Just need to rip this bandaid off.
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our basketball program will be built on the backs of poisoned aquifers. these once fertile underground lakes which fed millions will have been compromised through the practice of fracking, making kansas farmers rich. this, all in an effort to cleanse the name of k-su hoops and rid it of the cancer that is oscar weber and his fungus-like staff. seems like a fair trade tho.
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
i'm not sure how many different ways you want to postulate the same thing. i think the group of players we have this year is a significantly (dramatically) worse than the group we had last year. you think the difference isn't that great. there's nothing more to the discussion.
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I fully support those of you who are not content settling for mediocrity. There is a power vacuum in this conference with UT falling off the edge of the world. There is an opening for second fiddle, and applications are being accepted RIGHT NOW. It's only a matter of time before Texas becomes consistently good, again, and I would prefer that KSU solidify themselves as the clear #2 in the conference before that happens. Think about how great it would be for KU and K-State to battle each other every year for the Big 12 crown. For me, it would help quite a bit, having lost our primary rival.
#Hoiball :drool:
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I fully support those of you who are not content settling for mediocrity. There is a power vacuum in this conference with UT falling off the edge of the world. There is an opening for second fiddle, and applications are being accepted RIGHT NOW. It's only a matter of time before Texas becomes consistently good, again, and I would prefer that KSU solidify themselves as the clear #2 in the conference before that happens. Think about how great it would be for KU and K-State to battle each other every year for the Big 12 crown. For me, it would help quite a bit, having lost our primary rival.
#Hoiball :drool:
he is competing with Drew and Ford for the 2nd spot - he just needs to recruit relatively close to their level
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
i'm not sure how many different ways you want to postulate the same thing. i think the group of players we have this year is a significantly (dramatically) worse than the group we had last year. you think the difference isn't that great. there's nothing more to the discussion.
i agree. is our roster this year better than tcu's roster last year?
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tcu had more size :Ugh:
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Did TCU have motion offense, though? I mean, I am pretty sure it was well discussed and established that Bruces teams don't need much talent because Motion Offense.
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The ability to make a layup with either hand should not be glossed over.
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The ability to make a layup with either hand should not be glossed over.
sleekly popped Js tho
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i agree. is our roster this year better than tcu's roster last year?
i can't name a single player on tcu's team.
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I fully support those of you who are not content settling for mediocrity. There is a power vacuum in this conference with UT falling off the edge of the world. There is an opening for second fiddle, and applications are being accepted RIGHT NOW. It's only a matter of time before Texas becomes consistently good, again, and I would prefer that KSU solidify themselves as the clear #2 in the conference before that happens. Think about how great it would be for KU and K-State to battle each other every year for the Big 12 crown. For me, it would help quite a bit, having lost our primary rival.
#Hoiball :drool:
he is competing with Drew and Ford for the 2nd spot - he just needs to recruit relatively close to their level
Yea, he needs to combine his dreaminess with sliminess on the recruiting trail.
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I fully support those of you who are not content settling for mediocrity. There is a power vacuum in this conference with UT falling off the edge of the world. There is an opening for second fiddle, and applications are being accepted RIGHT NOW. It's only a matter of time before Texas becomes consistently good, again, and I would prefer that KSU solidify themselves as the clear #2 in the conference before that happens. Think about how great it would be for KU and K-State to battle each other every year for the Big 12 crown. For me, it would help quite a bit, having lost our primary rival.
#Hoiball :drool:
he is competing with Drew and Ford for the 2nd spot - he just needs to recruit relatively close to their level
Yea, he needs to combine his dreaminess with sliminess on the recruiting trail.
Does Hoi have any Dalonte type assistants on the staff now?
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This is probably true of most offenses, but when oscar doesn't have three-point shooters his teams struggle mightily to win games. More than average I'd say. His two worst records at Illinois (2007-08: 16-19 and 2011-12: 17-15) were also his two worst three-point shooting teams (31.9% and 30.4% respectively). His next worst three-point shooting team was 2009-10 with 34.0%, which was the only other season he didn't make the tournament. Fun fact, at Illinois if oscar's team shot below 34.9% from three they didn't make the tournament.
The ksu purple go cats last season were at 36.2%, which was only bested by one of oscar's Illinois squads: 39.2% during the NC game season. Point being, I haven't read of any of the incoming youngbloods being known as good outside shooters. The primary reason that the wheels fell off for oscar on the court in his last season at Illinois was that he recruited a bunch of athletic guards that couldn't shoot the three well and that was with a lottery pick at center. This would be my primary concern heading into next season for the fighting purples, just ahead of lack of height and depth in the paint.
Good post Mr. Bread.
I don't really know what to expect with this team, but I'm not brimming with confidence.
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This team will be TCU bad.
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no we won't. That was unprecedented. we won't match that.
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We lost
55% of our scoring
59% of our 3 pointers
46% of rebounding
59% of assists
48% of steals
58% of blocks
No, the shot attempts don't go with the players but this is significant. They weren't having the worst players do all these things for shits and giggles. At a glance, KU probably lost even more but we don't recruit like KU.
3 of the 4 least experienced teams were Tech, Texas, and WVU. The one outlier was OSU. The most experienced teams were KSU, KU, ISU, and TCU. TCU was the outlier there.
Basically, experience accounts for a lot but elite young talent or crap old talent is still elite or crap. Maybe not crap, but we will have relatively poor talent and experience next year. I don't know who could really think this is a negligible difference.
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
i'm not sure how many different ways you want to postulate the same thing. i think the group of players we have this year is a significantly (dramatically) worse than the group we had last year. you think the difference isn't that great. there's nothing more to the discussion.
I'm not talking about a particular team, am speaking generally, and have made several different points thay way.
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
i'm not sure how many different ways you want to postulate the same thing. i think the group of players we have this year is a significantly (dramatically) worse than the group we had last year. you think the difference isn't that great. there's nothing more to the discussion.
I'm not talking about a particular team, am speaking generally, and have made several different points thay way.
You've just been jerking yourself off mostly if not entirely. Points!
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Poor shane, what a shame.
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So, I haven't bothered to look at the schedule like I planned, but regardng 10 fewer wins: how does this happen? Our non con is pretty pud, I believe, so maybe 7 of those loses are to conference teams. That cuts our win total from last year in HALF and has us finishing probably 7th or 8th. That's the year after a first place finish. And you account for this with the loss of two starters and a role player? That's crazy.
i'm not sure how many different ways you want to postulate the same thing. i think the group of players we have this year is a significantly (dramatically) worse than the group we had last year. you think the difference isn't that great. there's nothing more to the discussion.
I'm not talking about a particular team, am speaking generally, and have made several different points thay way.
You've just been jerking yourself off mostly if not entirely. Points!
Okay. I'll stop if no one is interested.
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This team will be TCU bad.
No we won't. That being said TCU has one of the 10 best scorers in the conference in, Kyan Anderson. They will likely be really bad again although Anderson should be good for a couple of wins.
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This team will be TCU bad.
No we won't. That being said TCU has one of the 10 best scorers in the conference in, Kyan Anderson. They will likely be really bad again although Anderson should be good for a couple of wins against K-State..