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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on January 21, 2013, 05:12:28 PM
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First a bit of a prelude. As oscar continues to put his stamp on K-State basketball, I've adjusted my perceptions of what to look for as important going from game to game. Frank's system was built around the premise that K-State was going to out-tough and out-effort opponents on a night in and night out basis. That doesn't mean Frank's scheming and tactics were lacking, because he was still solid in both, but at the end of the day we had to have the effort and toughness to win consistently. So we all got used to watching oboarding, forcing turnovers, and getting to the foul line as the key factors. oscar has the carryover that Frank built into these players, so those still have importance, however oscar is much more a schemer and tactician, so the factors we look at as important have changed to an extent. His motion and movement have been talked about plenty, but what I've really enjoyed is seeing the subtleties and reads on the cuts and screens. I don't think its any coincidence that K-State has started to shoot the ball better in the last month or so as the players have become more and more comfortable with the system. And defensively the importance on forcing turnovers and bad shots remains, but with a mindset of allowing fewer easy baskets and reducing the foul calls (on the perimeter at least). This team is certainly not quite as tough as Frank's were, and the effort probably isn't quite the same, but oscar seems to be trying to make up for that with more sound decision making. In the last month that has worked great, we'll have to see the long term effects on not only this season, but the program as oscar continues to bring in his own players.
So the question becomes, what has changed?
With Frank I got used to looking at 45-40-25 as the keys. 45% for shooting (eFG%) and FT rate, 40% oboarding, and 25% TO percentage forced. If K-State hit on all 4, they were going to beat about anyone and 3 of the 4 was going to beat most. 2 of 4 would be in most games, and 1 or less was likely a loss. Of course, there are exceptions; great shooting games (50% or better), or oboarding games (45% or better), etc, but for the most part that was what I looked for.
With oscar the factors have changed a bit. This team has still oboarded well and is forcing turnovers, but offense, shooting, and how we score has become important. Frank's teams were tough because they were built to score different ways, but again the fall back was effort plays, transition baskets, 2nd chance, and the occasional really good shooting night. In many ways players generated shots much more than the offense generated shots. With oscar the offense is much more about the system and the offense generating shots. Better shooting points to this, but also a much higher rate of assists per made shots.
So now I look for factors of 35, 50, and 60, and just on offense. First 35; this is the percentage of shot attempts K-State needs from 3, the percentage we need to shoot from 3, and the percentage we need to rebound our own misses. If you look at the pattern in our games against decent teams this year, in wins we average those kinds of numbers. However, 2s are still important, namely shooting 50% on the 2s we do get. Early we not only struggled on 3s shooting the ball, but we were often awful shooting 2s. Finally, 60% of our made shots need to come off of assists. This means the motion offense is generating the shots and we are shooting the majority of our shots off of the pass.
Now to go with that we've got to have good defensive numbers; 25% turnovers forced, 30% oboarding allowed, and 45% or worse shooting allowed. We have played really well on defense when we get those numbers.
On to KU; I'd say against Top 5 teams usually you have to be better. We still need a balanced offense; 35% (or more) of our shots as 3s, but probably need to shoot from there in the upper 30s. However, the real challenge against KU will be approaching 50% on 2s and keeping our TO% on offense below 20%. Do that and K-State is looking good on offense, and those aren't impossible numbers. Then on defense at least match them shooting (keep them below 50% at least), but also get their TO% above 20 and oboarding below 35. To me FT rate has decreased in its role a bit, but still has some importance because we need to keep Angel and JO on the floor.
It will be interesting seeing oscar's system in action against Self. Frank got us 2 great wins, but he also had 9 losses. Nothing wrong with that because Frank did so many other things well, but KU was often a tough match-up for us because it become so tough for us to score in those games. Now we get to see if a different system on offense can be more successful.
With the way we are playing and the way KU is playing, I like our chances tomorrow night. I don't think we'll reach all the marks we need to, but I think we'll reach enough.
K-State 66 - KU 63
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K-State 66 - KU 63
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:dance: <---but with oscar's head
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Great analysis _FAN
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Our DOB beat oscar by about 40 last season. He could be our secret weapon this year.
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KU 71
KSU 59
No analysis needed, I'm from the future.
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I think kstate turnover rate is really important, especially for this game. KU has struggled to score recently in the half court and we can't give them free buckets. Another stat the important for Bruceketball is assist percentage, his motion offense is predicated on great passing. The one weakness of oscar's offense is that it can be to reliant on the jump shot.
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I think kstate turnover rate is really important, especially for this game. KU has struggled to score recently in the half court and we can't give them free buckets. Another stat the important for Bruceketball is assist percentage, his motion offense is predicated on great passing. The one weakness of oscar's offense is that it can be to reliant on the jump shot.
Extremely important and very telling to how well we play under oscar.
Also, we just need Rodney to have a good game, but others to step up. Angel needs to handle the ball, but also shoot it. One big (JO or Gip) needs to have a solid game. Then probably a scoring game from a couple secondary players like Shane and/or Will. It's not one of those "we have to play perfect" games, but we do have to play well.
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"Down 2 with 10 seconds left, Angel dribbles up the court, passes to Rodney at the top of the key. Rodney drives, the defense collapses in on him, he dishes it out to.....SPRADLING! SPRADLING PUTS IT UP AND (BUZZZZZ!!!).........IT'S GOOD! IT'S GOOD! K-STATE WINS!!! K.....STATE......WINS!!!!"
I wonder how goEMAW would respond to Spradling winning us a game like that.
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"Down 2 with 10 seconds left, Angel dribbles up the court, passes to Rodney at the top of the key. Rodney drives, the defense collapses in on him, he dishes it out to.....SPRADLING! SPRADLING PUTS IT UP AND (BUZZZZZ!!!).........IT'S GOOD! IT'S GOOD! K-STATE WINS!!! K.....STATE......WINS!!!!"
I wonder how goEMAW would respond to Spradling winning us a game like that.
His on the court performance is a minimal reason to why I hate him.
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"Down 2 with 10 seconds left, Angel dribbles up the court, passes to Rodney at the top of the key. Rodney drives, the defense collapses in on him, he dishes it out to.....SPRADLING! SPRADLING PUTS IT UP AND (BUZZZZZ!!!).........IT'S GOOD! IT'S GOOD! K-STATE WINS!!! K.....STATE......WINS!!!!"
I wonder how goEMAW would respond to Spradling winning us a game like that.
Maybe he'd finally sprout a ball hair :ohno:
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Agree. KU needs to struggle shooting. Keep them to under 48 eFG%. Big key is not letting them get 5-7 layups off of transistion.
And having the edge in TO% and OR% also key.
Id put our odds at 45% of getting the win. 68-64 is score I had in my mind, so close to the 66 63 projection.
If we can get to 65 Pts, then I really like our chances.
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Obligatory "straight to the bottom" since no one has said it. (Even though it isn't true)
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if art's foot or knee is at all healthy, kstate wins by double digits.
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if art's foot or knee is at all healthy, kstate wins by double digits.
Arts mom is going to be at the game again, I expect super human performance.
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How big of run does KU go on to open the 2nd half? I say 8-0, but it gets stretched to 14-2.
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12 is the usual, right? Also, we have sucked out of half often. Could be that those 3-4min decide the game.
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12 is the usual, right? Also, we have sucked out of half often. Could be that those 3-4min decide the game.
could be.
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12 is the usual, right? Also, we have sucked out of half often. Could be that those 3-4min decide the game.
could be.
possibly
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anything's possible, yup, def agree with pete and cns here. any of the game's 40 minutes could decide the game.
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anything's possible, yup, def agree with pete and cns here. any of the game's 40 minutes could decide the game.
could be
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any of the game's 40 minutes could decide the game.
HBBIQ right here folks
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any of the game's 40 minutes could decide the game.
HBBIQ right here folks
That's why we buy the premium.
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any of the game's 40 minutes could decide the game.
HBBIQ right here folks
That's why we buy the premium.
Yep. Money well spent.
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Somebody needs to send a hot GF to Lawrence and roofy Withey.
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Match-ups (in order of importance).
1) Angel (Tay) vs Johnson (Tharpe). Yes, I'd put this match-up higher than McClemore/Rod. IMHO, point guard play will go a long way toward deciding this game. Angel not only needs to continue creating and forcing turnovers, but tonight he must hit shots at a better clip. Johnson is a good player, but I think KU might be most vulnerable here.
2) Rod vs McClemore. Granted, they likely won't be matched up much of the game; Releford will likely get Rod most of the time while oscar throws several defenders at McClemore. However, the efficiency of scoring for each team starts with their two scoring stars; here the experienced SR vs the lottery pick talent Frosh. I think PG is more important, but this one is a close 2nd.
3) Withey vs Gip/JO. KU will win this battle, but K-State has to compete here. I'd take it if we could get JO/Gip to combine for a double-double and not allow Withey to get 8-10 blocks. Also, crisp movement in the motion and the ability to get Withey away from the rim would help open up the lane for others.
4) Shane/Will vs Releford/Ellis/Young. The final round becomes about the secondary players. K-State could probably throw Nino in here too, but Shane is the small ball 4 that has come on the most. And Shane/Will hitting some perimeter shots could be the difference. I've already said 3PT shots will likely be a huge part of K-State's chances to win and the Cats will need more than just Rod hitting shots. Releford is an efficient scorer and shooter, so whichever Cat defender ends up guarding him (probably Will) needs to do a great job limiting wide open shots.
To win it, K-State needs to win at least 3 of the 4 match-ups. 2 of 4 won't get it done and worse will be a Bramlage blowout.
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i expect Rod to dominate Mediocremore.
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i expect Rod to dominate Mediocremore.
I like McCleless my self.
I would love to see Rod go out and get 30.
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I expect McLemoriarty to dominate Rod. Rod is due for a bad game. We've been shooting above our heads recently.
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stopped reading at "oscar is much more a scheme [doctor]"
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stopped reading at "oscar is much more a scheme [doctor]"
You don't agree? Why?
Again, I don't think Frank just rolled a ball out; he is a very good basketball coach. But I think its fair to say oscar's scheme (especially offense) is more about the scheme and tactics and Frank's was more about relying on play-making in the midst of a continuity/pattern offense (based on the triangle). There is more reading/reacting going on in oscar's offense.
FWIW, I don't think either are better/worse strategies to win games. To win either way you need players.
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stopped reading at "oscar is much more a scheme [doctor]"
You don't agree? Why?
Again, I don't think Frank just rolled a ball out; he is a very good basketball coach. But I think its fair to say oscar's scheme (especially offense) is more about the scheme and tactics and Frank's was more about relying on play-making in the midst of a continuity/pattern offense (based on the triangle). There is more reading/reacting going on in oscar's offense.
FWIW, I don't think either are better/worse strategies to win games. To win either way you need players.
I agree with this. But, frank was implementing more of a motion offense his last year. :dunno:
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i expect Rod to dominate Mediocremore.
I like McCleless my self.
I would love to see Rod go out and get 30.
admittedly, i didn't put a lot of time into it.
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I agree with this. But, frank was implementing more of a motion offense his last year. :dunno:
Frank's (or Underwood's) offense was based on the triangle. The differences aren't huge, but it was more of a pattern/continuity offense that still required screening and reading. However, it didn't require the number of reads by both the cutter and the screener, not the number of different screens/cuts that oscar's offense requires. Also, Frank then had several set plays that we would run. Again, both require solid scheming or Xs/Os or whatever you want to call it, I just think oscar's is a little more fine tuned in that regard. And Frank's gave more freedom eventually for playmakers to make go make plays, ie. players generating shots whereas oscar's offense generates more shots for players from the offense itself. Again, the assist/TO numbers show that, IMHO.