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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: The Manhatter on July 10, 2011, 10:58:32 AM
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pass efficiency defense. Amazing how good KSU was in '99...here is a look at the top ranked pass efficiency d for every year since '99. KSU was not only better but signicantly better than every other top ranked pass efficiency d in the NCAA since '99.
65.7 - '99 KSU (11-1)
75.6 - '01 Miami (12-0)
83.9 - '02 Miami (12-1)
84.9 - '06 Wisconsin (12-1)
85.8 - '08 USC (12-1)
87.3 - '09 Nebraska (10-4)
88.1 - '00 Texas (10-2)
88.7 - '03 Nebraska (10-3)
89.5 - '05 Miami (9-3)
91.8 - '04 North Carolina State (5-6)
94.9 - '10 TCU (13-0)
96.5 - '07 Utah (9-4)
yikes at '04 NC-State. I seem to recall after Rivers they had a badass defense but their offense was miserable.
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our '99 defense allowed just a 37.6% completion rate and only 5 TDs to 21 ints.
That defense was perfectly constructed to shut down the passing game. Three outstanding pass rushing ends in Howard, Beisel, and Johnson....even had a NT in Fatafehi that could rush the passer (only reason he stayed in the NFL for as long as he did). Linebackers that could cover not only backs but receivers in Simoneau and Leber. I still remember a long pass play against Texas where Leber was covering UT's slot receiver...he had him mano y mano from the LOS and actually ran him down inside the 5. A free safety in Chapman that was drafted to play corner in the NFL. Speed and explosiveness at strong safety. Corners who could play press man coverage.
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We've have flashes at every other spot on D, but lacking the rush ends has been our downfall.
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We've have flashes at every other spot on D, but lacking the rush ends has been our downfall.
the pass efficiency d was actually pretty decent last year given our complete lack of ability to rush the passer, cover with LBs, and no press man coverage ability at the corner.
The pass effic d has a stronger correlation to scoring defense. Mizzou, last year for example, was mediocre in rush defense but top 10 in pass effec d and their scoring d was top 10.
If we can generate a pass rush w/ some of these new defensive ends (& I believe we have some of that), cover better at LB (Brown and Lammur should help), and get Darious Thomas back one would think that could improve. If Thomas comes back then Garrett can play safety...that would be dramatically helpful to have a safety with some corner skills. We really wouldn't have to improve dramatically in rush defense (just get into the 70s or so) and the defense would be much stiffer in allowing pts.
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Mizzou and Nebraska were 62nd and 63rd in rush defense last year....very average.
Mizzou was 11th in pass eff d
Nebraska was 3rd in pass eff d
Mizzou was 6th in scoring d
Nebraska was 9th in scoring d
I think the reason Mizzou was just a little better than Nebraska in scoring d was because their d was put in better situations by their offense vs. NU's offense.
Regardless...we can be ordinary in rush defense but as long as we make it difficult to efficiently move and score the ball through the air our defense won't surrender a lot of points.
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I'm guessing all these teams were great in the front 7:
1. Great pass rush, makes passing hard
2. lots of 3rd and long
3. goofy west coast screen pass crap doesn't work near as well
65.7 - '99 KSU (11-1) Darren Howard, Mark Simoneau, Beisel, Fatafehi
75.6 - '01 Miami (12-0) Jamaal Green, William Joseph, Jonathan Vilma, Vicne Wilfork
83.9 - '02 Miami (12-1) see above
84.9 - '06 Wisconsin (12-1) Big 10 doesn't pass, Wisky runs the ball so much other team probably only ran 14 plays
85.8 - '08 USC (12-1) Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Ray Maualuga
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Nfl talent recruited by venzy.
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Nerd Alert
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Probably also helped that we didn't play anyone who was good at passing in 1999.
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pass efficiency defense. Amazing how good KSU was in '99...here is a look at the top ranked pass efficiency d for every year since '99. KSU was not only better but signicantly better than every other top ranked pass efficiency d in the NCAA since '99.
65.7 - '99 KSU (11-1)
75.6 - '01 Miami (12-0)
83.9 - '02 Miami (12-1)
84.9 - '06 Wisconsin (12-1)
85.8 - '08 USC (12-1)
87.3 - '09 Nebraska (10-4)
88.1 - '00 Texas (10-2)
88.7 - '03 Nebraska (10-3)
89.5 - '05 Miami (9-3)
91.8 - '04 North Carolina State (5-6)
94.9 - '10 TCU (13-0)
96.5 - '07 Utah (9-4)
yikes at '04 NC-State. I seem to recall after Rivers they had a badass defense but their offense was miserable.
What kind of bullshit is this?
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Pass efficiency D is completely irrelevant when you cannot stop the run.
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Pass efficiency D is completely irrelevant when you cannot stop the run.
Exactly. My man knows his football. Talk to Martinez from Nebraska after our game last season.
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our '99 defense allowed just a 37.6% completion rate and only 5 TDs to 21 ints.
That defense was perfectly constructed to shut down the passing game. Three outstanding pass rushing ends in Howard, Beisel, and Johnson....even had a NT in Fatafehi that could rush the passer (only reason he stayed in the NFL for as long as he did). Linebackers that could cover not only backs but receivers in Simoneau and Leber. I still remember a long pass play against Texas where Leber was covering UT's slot receiver...he had him mano y mano from the LOS and actually ran him down inside the 5. A free safety in Chapman that was drafted to play corner in the NFL. Speed and explosiveness at strong safety. Corners who could play press man coverage.
I agree, when you can rush the QB without blitzing, it makes playing defense a lot easier.
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Defense alone cannot win a championship in today's game.
PBX
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Pass efficiency D is completely irrelevant when you cannot stop the run.
Exactly. My man knows his football. Talk to Martinez from Nebraska after our game last season.
really guys? I see playboy provided an outlier. Well no crap you're not going to win if you allow 400 yards rushing but...
tell me this...in 2009 KSU was 16th in the nation in rushing defense. Yes, 16th just two years ago. That same season KSU was +7 in turnovers (only +4 in 2010) and maintained the ball for 33:48 per game vs 30:47.
So if rush defense is as important as you state then why, why if KSU ranked 103 places LOWER and next to last in D-1 in rushing D surrendering 2 yards per carry MORE...why did KSU surrender only a FG more than in 2009 if you extrapolate points per play surrendered in '10 and '09 over 65 plays?
KSU was a bowl team in 2010 and not in 2009.
I'm left wondering how Miami, Fla played in the 2002 national title game with a rushing defense that ranked 72nd or how Texas won it in 2005 w/ a 33rd ranked rushing defense. I suppose it was because Miami was #1 in pass eff d in 2002 and Texas 4th in that category in 2005.
Fact is that 8 of 11 national champs between 1999 and 2009 ranked top 5 in pass effic D...and all but one were at least in the top 15. That was NOT the case with their rushing defenses.
I've read that Mack Brown put someone to research the top components that go into making a national champ...1 of the top 5 components in "passing efficiency defense" and NOT rushing defense.
That is not to say your rushing defense can be piss poor (see playbody's outlier in Nebraska game last year) but you can be average in rushing defense (see Nubb and Mizzou in '10 pointed out earlier) but if you're really good in pass efficiency defense (see Nubb and Mizzou '10 pointed out earlier) then teams simply won't score on you (see Nubb and Mizzou '10).
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That's a good point Manhatter and it makes sense when I think back to past great K-State teams and the strength of those secondaries.
PBX
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I'm guessing all these teams were great in the front 7:
1. Great pass rush, makes passing hard
2. lots of 3rd and long
3. goofy west coast screen pass crap doesn't work near as well
65.7 - '99 KSU (11-1) Darren Howard, Mark Simoneau, Beisel, Fatafehi
75.6 - '01 Miami (12-0) Jamaal Green, William Joseph, Jonathan Vilma, Vicne Wilfork
83.9 - '02 Miami (12-1) see above
84.9 - '06 Wisconsin (12-1) Big 10 doesn't pass, Wisky runs the ball so much other team probably only ran 14 plays
85.8 - '08 USC (12-1) Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Ray Maualuga
Yes, but I think to be the #1 team in pass eff d you need three elements (KSU had all three and were extremely complete in disrupting the passing game).
1) pass rush. in '99 we had 3 defensive ends that were very good pass rushers in Howard, Beisel, and C. Johnson. In addition to those three at end Fatafehi was an outstanding pass rushing interior DL. As a senior in 2000 Mario had 8.5 sacks from the nose tackle position...an outstanding number for an interior player. Those 4 were able to rush the passer without the aid of the LBs.
2) LBs with versatility. Leber and Simoneau were excellent in coverage which is why both had/have long careers in the NFL. We used Leber frequently to cover slot receivers from his Mike position (he played Mike in '99 and Sam in '00 and '01). Simoneau, in particular, was very good at blitzing as well.
3) secondary that could cover at all 4 positions. It's debatable that Cooper was a good in coverage at strong safety but most point to one game to make their claim. That being '00 Oklahoma where he struggled w/ the flex TE in the spread. But he was a very explosive and lengthy strong safety that was very good against backs and TEs. Chapman was a free safety with cornerback skills...he was drafted the following spring to play corner in the NFL. We had 3 very solid corners in Carter, Butler, and Newman who could press man cover starting at the LOS.
If you're pretty good at all three of those levels it's nearly impossible for opposing teams to move and score the ball efficiently through the air.
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Pass efficiency D is completely irrelevant when you cannot stop the run.
Exactly. My man knows his football. Talk to Martinez from Nebraska after our game last season.
really guys? I see playboy provided an outlier. Well no crap you're not going to win if you allow 400 yards rushing but...
tell me this...in 2009 KSU was 16th in the nation in rushing defense. Yes, 16th just two years ago. That same season KSU was +7 in turnovers (only +4 in 2010) and maintained the ball for 33:48 per game vs 30:47.
So if rush defense is as important as you state then why, why if KSU ranked 103 places LOWER and next to last in D-1 in rushing D surrendering 2 yards per carry MORE...why did KSU surrender only a FG more than in 2009 if you extrapolate points per play surrendered in '10 and '09 over 65 plays?
KSU was a bowl team in 2010 and not in 2009.
I'm left wondering how Miami, Fla played in the 2002 national title game with a rushing defense that ranked 72nd or how Texas won it in 2005 w/ a 33rd ranked rushing defense. I suppose it was because Miami was #1 in pass eff d in 2002 and Texas 4th in that category in 2005.
Fact is that 8 of 11 national champs between 1999 and 2009 ranked top 5 in pass effic D...and all but one were at least in the top 15. That was NOT the case with their rushing defenses.
I've read that Mack Brown put someone to research the top components that go into making a national champ...1 of the top 5 components in "passing efficiency defense" and NOT rushing defense.
That is not to say your rushing defense can be piss poor (see playbody's outlier in Nebraska game last year) but you can be average in rushing defense (see Nubb and Mizzou in '10 pointed out earlier) but if you're really good in pass efficiency defense (see Nubb and Mizzou '10 pointed out earlier) then teams simply won't score on you (see Nubb and Mizzou '10).
I think the 2009 team was much better than the 2010 team, fwiw. They just struggled early due to having a new coach/system and lost to Louisiana Lafayette.
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I think the 2009 team was much better than the 2010 team, fwiw. They just struggled early due to having a new coach/system and lost to Louisiana Lafayette.
perhaps. we lost 5 games by 12 or more pts in 2009 but only 1 by 12+ last year. I suppose it depends how you look at it.
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2009 vs 2010 would be a great stand alone thread. someone should start that up. i have some passionate views about that one.
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2009 vs 2010 would be a great stand alone thread. someone should start that up. i have some passionate views about that one.
How is that possible? These are two of the biggest meh teams in the history of ksu. You could neither truly hate nor enjoy them. You could not laugh at nor love them. They were completely mediocre.
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2009 vs 2010 would be a great stand alone thread. someone should start that up. i have some passionate views about that one.
How is that possible? These are two of the biggest meh teams in the history of ksu. You could neither truly hate nor enjoy them. You could not laugh at nor love them. They were completely mediocre.
:kstategrad:
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Curious to see the top scoring D teams for the same years...Manhatter?
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Curious to see the top scoring D teams for the same years...Manhatter?
Scoring defense can be a very misleading statistic.
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I pointed out the most important defensive statistic last year it is: points allowed per play (adjusted for strength of schedule).
/thread
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I pointed out the most important defensive statistic last year it is: points allowed per play (adjusted for strength of schedule).
/thread
That would be a great statistic for the NCAA to track. Assuming 65 by the opposition per game the 2010 defense was just a FG worse than the 2009 defense.
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Curious to see the top scoring D teams for the same years...Manhatter?
scoring defense '99
1 Virginia Tech 10.5
2 Marshall 11.2
3 Nebraska 12.5
4 Kansas St. 13.1
5 Wisconsin 13.2
scoring defense '00
1 TCU 9.6
2 Florida St. 10.3
3 Toledo 11.4
4 Western Mich. 11.6
5 Miami (Fla.) 15.5
scoring defense '01
1 Miami (Fla.) 9.4
2 Virginia Tech 13.4
3 Texas 13.7
4 Oklahoma 13.8
5 Florida 14.1
scoring defense '02
1 Kansas St. 11.8
2 Ohio St. 13.1
3 North Texas 192 14.8
4 Georgia 15.1
5 Alabama 15.4
scoring defense '03
1 LSU 11.0
2 Nebraska 14.5
3 Georgia 14.5
4 Miami (Fla.) 15.1
5 Oklahoma 15.3
scoring defense '04
1 Auburn 11.3
2 Virginia Tech 12.8
3 Southern California 13.0
4 Florida St. 14.1
5 Penn St. 15.3
scoring defense '05
1 Alabama 10.7
2 Virginia Tech 12.9
3 LSU 14.2
4 Miami (Fla.) 14.3
5 Ohio St. 15.3
scoring defense '06
1 Virginia Tech 11.0
2 Wisconsin 12.1
3 TCU 12.3
4 LSU 12.6
5 Ohio St. 12.8
scoring defense '07
1 Ohio St. 12.8
2 Southern California 16.0
3 Virginia Tech 16.1
4 Kansas 16.4
5 Utah 16.8
scoring defense '08
1 Southern California 9.00
2 TCU 11.31
3 Boise St. 12.62
4 Florida 12.93
5 Iowa 13.00
scoring defense '09
1 Nebraska 10.43
2 Alabama 11.71
3 Penn St. 12.23
4 Florida 12.43
5 Ohio St. 12.54
scoring defense '10
1 TCU 12.00
2 Boise St. 12.77
3 Alabama 13.54
3 West Virginia 13.54
5 Ohio St. 14.31
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I pointed out the most important defensive statistic last year it is: points allowed per play (adjusted for strength of schedule).
/thread
That would be a great statistic for the NCAA to track. Assuming 65 by the opposition per game the 2010 defense was just a FG worse than the 2009 defense.
NT (2010) = 65.4
NU (2010) = 70.7
NU (2007) = 68.4
TT (2009) = 66.0
Reg Season total raw DE
2010 = 30.7
2009 = 27.7
2008 = 34.8
2007 = 31.6
2006 = 27.0
DE is points given up in 75 offensive plays, so yep your analysis is spot on.
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Ratio of points allowed by defense per points scored by the offense? :dunno:
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Ratio of points allowed by defense per points scored by the offense? :dunno:
ah yes the ratio of DE/OE, the best statistic to determining win % against an average team and the basis (along with tempo) to predicting the likely hood of victory and the final score against a specific team as well.
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I pointed out the most important defensive statistic last year it is: points allowed per play (adjusted for strength of schedule).
/thread
That would be a great statistic for the NCAA to track. Assuming 65 by the opposition per game the 2010 defense was just a FG worse than the 2009 defense.
NT (2010) = 65.4
NU (2010) = 70.7
NU (2007) = 68.4
TT (2009) = 66.0
Reg Season total raw DE
2010 = 30.7
2009 = 27.7
2008 = 34.8
2007 = 31.6
2006 = 27.0
DE is points given up in 75 offensive plays, so yep your analysis is spot on.
this is the stat that should be kept by the NCAA. Extrapolate it over the avg. number of plays offenses get per game over a season to make more of an apples to apples. Our ppg is actually better, I would guess, because we hold the ball longer and allower fewer snaps than the opposition though that is probably a staple of better teams as well.
I split the difference between the '09 and '10 seasons with roughly 65 snaps per by opposing offenses...that is how I arrived at a FG difference. I think it was 757 snaps in 12 games in 2009 and 907 snaps in 13 games in 2010.
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eff it break out the Chingdex already.
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I pointed out the most important defensive statistic last year it is: points allowed per play (adjusted for strength of schedule).
/thread
That would be a great statistic for the NCAA to track. Assuming 65 by the opposition per game the 2010 defense was just a FG worse than the 2009 defense.
NT (2010) = 65.4
NU (2010) = 70.7
NU (2007) = 68.4
TT (2009) = 66.0
Reg Season total raw DE
2010 = 30.7
2009 = 27.7
2008 = 34.8
2007 = 31.6
2006 = 27.0
DE is points given up in 75 offensive plays, so yep your analysis is spot on.
this is the stat that should be kept by the NCAA. Extrapolate it over the avg. number of plays offenses get per game over a season to make more of an apples to apples. Our ppg is actually better, I would guess, because we hold the ball longer and allower fewer snaps than the opposition though that is probably a staple of better teams as well.
I split the difference between the '09 and '10 seasons with roughly 65 snaps per by opposing offenses...that is how I arrived at a FG difference. I think it was 757 snaps in 12 games in 2009 and 907 snaps in 13 games in 2010.
I think my DE stat (and OE as well) is the proper metric since it does take into account tempo (hence a per play stat, which is fair to compare year to year imo). The raw numbers are calculated as you mentioned (I think). I take the total number of points scored (over the course of the season) and divide it by the number of offensive plays (over the course of the season). I then multiply by 75 to simply make a more familiar number (75 being about the avg number of offensive plays).
Example:
Team A lets its opponent average 40 plays a game, and they give up a TD+xp on 4 (10%) of them [28 pts]
Team B lets its opponent average 80 plays a game, and they give up a TD+xp on 6 (7.5%) [42 pts]
On first glance most people would say the first team is a better defense based on the lower number of points allowed.
The first team actually has an objectively worse defense, but they play a slower tempo.
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Curious to see the top scoring D teams for the same years...Manhatter?
scoring defense '99
1 Virginia Tech 10.5
2 Marshall 11.2
3 Nebraska 12.5
4 Kansas St. 13.1
5 Wisconsin 13.2
scoring defense '00
1 TCU 9.6
2 Florida St. 10.3
3 Toledo 11.4
4 Western Mich. 11.6
5 Miami (Fla.) 15.5
scoring defense '01
1 Miami (Fla.) 9.4
2 Virginia Tech 13.4
3 Texas 13.7
4 Oklahoma 13.8
5 Florida 14.1
scoring defense '02
1 Kansas St. 11.8
2 Ohio St. 13.1
3 North Texas 192 14.8
4 Georgia 15.1
5 Alabama 15.4
scoring defense '03
1 LSU 11.0
2 Nebraska 14.5
3 Georgia 14.5
4 Miami (Fla.) 15.1
5 Oklahoma 15.3
scoring defense '04
1 Auburn 11.3
2 Virginia Tech 12.8
3 Southern California 13.0
4 Florida St. 14.1
5 Penn St. 15.3
scoring defense '05
1 Alabama 10.7
2 Virginia Tech 12.9
3 LSU 14.2
4 Miami (Fla.) 14.3
5 Ohio St. 15.3
scoring defense '06
1 Virginia Tech 11.0
2 Wisconsin 12.1
3 TCU 12.3
4 LSU 12.6
5 Ohio St. 12.8
scoring defense '07
1 Ohio St. 12.8
2 Southern California 16.0
3 Virginia Tech 16.1
4 Kansas 16.4
5 Utah 16.8
scoring defense '08
1 Southern California 9.00
2 TCU 11.31
3 Boise St. 12.62
4 Florida 12.93
5 Iowa 13.00
scoring defense '09
1 Nebraska 10.43
2 Alabama 11.71
3 Penn St. 12.23
4 Florida 12.43
5 Ohio St. 12.54
scoring defense '10
1 TCU 12.00
2 Boise St. 12.77
3 Alabama 13.54
3 West Virginia 13.54
5 Ohio St. 14.31
Thanks for this...
USC '08....9 PPG is pretty amazing, although if I recall correctly that was a down year in the PAC 10. Still, typically a conference with some offenses that can score.
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the following may be the strongest case for why pass efficiency defense is more important than rushing defense.
over the last 12 years of college football (1999-2010)...
The #1 pass efficiency defense was also in the top 5 in scoring defense 9 of the 12 years. In addition to that, in 4 of those 12 years the #1 pass efficiency defense was also the #1 scoring defense.
The #1 rushing defense was in the top 5 of scoring defenses ONLY 3 times. The #1 rushing defense was NOT the #1 scoring defense in any of the 12 years.
I would say that is very influential evidence.