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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on March 14, 2011, 09:44:02 AM
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The Dance is finally here. (http://goEMAW.com/blog/?p=941)
:bracketmouse:
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No prediction? :ohno:
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_fan, how much of those efficiency numbers do you put into context? If you look at who they played, how much of that can you just throw out the window?
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No prediction? :ohno:
We'll win. I'll give a score eventually.
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_Fan, your thoughts on Ken giving you the middle finger?
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_fan, how much of those efficiency numbers do you put into context? If you look at who they played, how much of that can you just throw out the window?
That's a great question, and hard to call. That's where you have to go off what you see, and I watched a couple of their games last night. They do a lot of things really well, but you have to put it into context.
For example, Boise State is a pretty average team, but athletic. They caused Utah State quite a few problems with pressure defense, but would go through stretches of terrible basketball. In both the 1st and 2nd half BSU allowed USU to build double digit leads, then they'd pick up the defense and make a run and cut into the lead. They just didn't have enough to finish and started the game like 0-8 from 3, plus their bigs were pretty average at best. St Mary's is hard to compare to and it was at their place. I do give USU a lot of credit though, they got behind by 8-9 in the middle of the game, but ended up coming back and won the game pretty comfortably in the last 5 minutes.
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_Fan, your thoughts on Ken giving you the middle finger?
Different style, but similar to mid-season Missouri. I give credit where its due; USU does a great job of dominating pretty bad competition, but I don't know how well it translates to playing more talented and especially more athletic teams. Even he admitted their rating might be a bit much today.
I’m not terribly confident about the probabilities for Utah State and Belmont. I’m confident they are seeded undeservingly low, but by how much is very difficult to say. Maybe the NCAA will seriously study situations like these someday and we can remove the scheduling issue from the selection process.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=673
So he basically says what most agree with; they probably deserved better than a 12 seed, but them having a 60% winning probability seems far fetched.
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No prediction? :ohno:
That was just _FAN sticking it to us straighttothebottom'rs.
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:weirdrobert:
Lets get WILD!
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I'm watching the USU vs BSU game right now. It's nearly comical to watch their post players.
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I'm watching the @St. Mary's game right now. The crowd makes me feel like I'm watching a high school game. Student section is horrible.
I'm only 5 minutes in, but Tai Wesley has some decent post moves, but I feel like we will do alright against him. Walker III reminds me of 95.
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Frank agress with _FAN and says USU is comparable to Nubb.
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I watched part of the Boise State game and a little of the St. Mary's. They seem like a controlled team. They don't dribble drive often (which imo is a weakness of our foul prone posts) and they don't take risks. I just don't see how any of their players can hang with the likes of our starters and a lot of our bench. We would have to have a very poor shooting night to lose to this team. Our defense is significantly better than the ones I watched them play against. They had some ugly plays vs. really crappy teams. We play tighter, have shot blockers in the paint, and usually at least get a hand in the face of three point shooters. None of their guys are tall or athletic enough to consistently score over a hands- straight-up Kelly or JHR, much less the aggressive versions of them. This game doesn't really frighten me. There's no way they have an answer for Jake. These analysts need to GTFOOF and stop trying to rile up the rest of America with talk of an upset. :chainsaw:
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I watched part of the Boise State game and a little of the St. Mary's. They seem like a controlled team. They don't dribble drive often (which imo is a weakness of our foul prone posts) and they don't take risks. I just don't see how any of their players can hang with the likes of our starters and a lot of our bench. We would have to have a very poor shooting night to lose to this team. Our defense is significantly better than the ones I watched them play against. They had some ugly plays vs. really crappy teams. We play tighter, have shot blockers in the paint, and usually at least get a hand in the face of three point shooters. None of their guys are tall or athletic enough to consistently score over a hands- straight-up Kelly or JHR, much less the aggressive versions of them. This game doesn't really frighten me. There's no way they have an answer for Jake. These analysts need to GTFOOF and stop trying to rile up the rest of America with talk of an upset. :chainsaw:
Sometimes our bigs get out of position and that leads to fouls. Wesley is really good at drawing fouls. If that starts to happen, then other bad things can build from there, especially forcing help and opening up their shooters. That is the biggest concern going in; concern b) would be some sort of low 40s eFG% night which this team has shown to be capable of, but watching their defenders I think they will have a hard time guarding Pullen.
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Home of the now famous 'I believe' chant: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44YUnOoye58 and Wild Bill http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDH01l6Lhc8
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Is it a widely-held opinion that opposing coaches scouting us won't notice our vulnerability to the dribble drive? Having LBBIQ, I'm not sure whether, or how quickly, a team can implement a "dribble drive" strategy in the NCAA tournament.
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Is it a widely-held opinion that opposing coaches scouting us won't notice our vulnerability to the dribble drive? Having LBBIQ, I'm not sure whether, or how quickly, a team can implement a "dribble drive" strategy in the NCAA tournament.
Everyone knows this, its whether or not you have the players to do it effectively. CU is set up better than probably 90% of the teams in the country to do just that, Utah State is not. If they go into the game trying to drive us a lot, they will get beat badly. Their ball handlers are average at best compared to good Big 12 level guards. Pane is a decent player, but he landed at Utah State for a reason.
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Offensively were are very similar to K-State, defensively we are much better.
:dubious: _FAN, does this guy have any idea what he's talking about?
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Offensively were are very similar to K-State, defensively we are much better.
:dubious: _FAN, does this guy have any idea what he's talking about?
I think the "were are" makes the answer pretty obvious.
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Offensively were are very similar to K-State, defensively we are much better.
:dubious: _FAN, does this guy have any idea what he's talking about?
I assume he's talking about kenpom's ratings for them. Offensively we are nearly identical in efficiency; 110.2 for us 110.0 for them. But defensively they are at 88.1 and we are at 91.6. So if you go by that, yeah, he may have a point.
Of course, the average offense in the Big 12 has an efficiency of 109.9. In the WAC the average efficiency is 102.7. Defensively the average efficiency is 94.6 for the Big 12 and 99.3 for the WAC.
So you are really talking about two very different leagues.
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Last year I felt like Butler beat us by controlling possessions and pace, they didn't allow us to get into a fast pace game like we were used to (tell me if I'm wrong). This shouldn't be a problem for our Cats this year should it? You said they average lower 60s in average possessions. I assume we are a upper sixty pace (I'm not much of a stats guy, so correct me if I'm wrong). Should we be worried about another team that likes to play a controlled, lower possession game like Utah St? Or does us having a better half court game this year make us less vulnerable to this?
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Last year I felt like Butler beat us by controlling possessions and pace, they didn't allow us to get into a fast pace game like we were used to (tell me if I'm wrong). This shouldn't be a problem for our Cats this year should it? You said they average lower 60s in average possessions. I assume we are a upper sixty pace (I'm not much of a stats guy, so correct me if I'm wrong). Should we be worried about another team that likes to play a controlled, lower possession game like Utah St? Or does us having a better half court game this year make us less vulnerable to this?
If Utah State had a Top 10 NBA draft pick like Butler it would be more of a concern.
Again, USU has enough talent and ability to beat us, but IMO it will take a combination of two of the following; a really bad shooting night (low 40s eFG% for us), getting beat on the boards (10% or better advantage on OR%), or allowing USU to get to the FT line a lot (+15% advantage on FT rate) for us to lose this game.
That said, I won't be surprised by a 65-ish possession game with the Cats pulling away down the stretch to win by 7-8 points. In no way am I expecting some sort of 15-20 point comfortable win; there will likely be times where we squirm in this one. As I said, an @NU type of game is what I am anticipating.
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Can someone direct me to a place to watch these guys? I must have been looking in the wrong spots on the internet.
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Can someone direct me to a place to watch these guys? I must have been looking in the wrong spots on the internet.
Just do a replay of their last few games on espn3.com.
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Can someone direct me to a place to watch these guys? I must have been looking in the wrong spots on the internet.
Just do a replay of their last few games on espn3.com.
Genius. I never even thought of that. Thanks.
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JayBilas Jay Bilas
Remember this about the NCAA: it usually becomes a half court game. It is easier to slow a game down than it is to speed one up.
31 minutes ago
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Utah State's current 22 game winning streak is the 6th longest since 1963.
It is, also, the 8th longest since 1980
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Utah State :chainsaw:
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Utah State's current 22 game winning streak is the 6th longest since 1963.
It is, also, the 8th longest since 1980
They've won 8 in a row.
:confused:
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Utah State's current 22 game winning streak is the 6th longest since 1963.
It is, also, the 8th longest since 1980
They've won 8 in a row.
:confused:
You're probably right...
Guys, default to EllIII on this one.
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Utah State's current 22 game winning streak is the 6th longest since 1963.
It is, also, the 8th longest since 1980
They've won 8 in a row.
:confused:
You're probably right...
Guys, default to EllIII on this one.
:pbj:
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i need to watch more, but from what i saw, they're very sloppy with the ball. pretty sloppy period. spacing, risky passes, etc. not at all the stereotype you might have.
anyways, i'd bet kstate turns them over 10+ times in the first half. they'll tighten up as the game goes on, and kstate's pressure will invariably slack off. so it'd be nice to use the first half to build a cruise-home sized lead.
they aren't great shooters either, outside of one keiton page-sized dude. so you can do a lot defensively with help and pressure without too much risk.
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i need to watch more, but from what i saw, they're very sloppy with the ball. pretty sloppy period. spacing, risky passes, etc. not at all the stereotype you might have.
anyways, i'd bet kstate turns them over 10+ times in the first half. they'll tighten up as the game goes on, and kstate's pressure will invariably slack off. so it'd be nice to use the first half to build a cruise-home sized lead.
they aren't great shooters either, outside of one keiton page-sized dude. so you can do a lot defensively with help and pressure without too much risk.
Yeah, I think we could have a significant advantage in forcing turnovers. Again, similar to how we did in both games against Nebraska.
I am most concerned about Kelly/Samuels foul problems. I do think Wesley is a pretty good player as well as the white Jam-Sam.
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How is their point guard, he small and jake usually gives small point guards trouble right after the time line, would be nice if we could keep them out of their offense.
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How is their point guard, he small and jake usually gives small point guards trouble right after the time line, would be nice if we could keep them out of their offense.
He should have problems with Jake's defense.
And I know he was heavily criticized after CU, but this could be a great match-up for 95 as well.
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I am most concerned about Kelly/Samuels foul problems. I do think Wesley is a pretty good player as well as the white Jam-Sam.
i agree with that. i actually thought the other big, bendall, looked pretty solid as well. i just think our guards will completely overmatch theirs.
dunno, i need to see more. it's just that they looked completely shook up by boise state's pressure. and kstate's pressure is a lot better than boise state's.
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In the St. Mary's game, USU's offense in the second half was get the ball to Tai. I think if we do solid job on him (under his season average) we should handle these guys.
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Yeah, seeing Boise State's pressure really bother them makes it hard to not be overconfident. Boise State is a pretty average team, just athletic really.
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Went from :ohno: to :driving: after reading all the HBBIQ in this tread.
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we're bigger and can outrebound them.
Get them tired and frustrated then send in the doberman's in the second half. Nab the 50/50 balls and this one is ours.
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i need to watch more, but from what i saw, they're very sloppy with the ball. pretty sloppy period. spacing, risky passes, etc. not at all the stereotype you might have.
anyways, i'd bet kstate turns them over 10+ times in the first half. they'll tighten up as the game goes on, and kstate's pressure will invariably slack off. so it'd be nice to use the first half to build a cruise-home sized lead.
they aren't great shooters either, outside of one keiton page-sized dude. so you can do a lot defensively with help and pressure without too much risk.
x2
Watching just the first half of the game against Boise it seems as if they rely heavily on the post. I feel fairly comfortable thinking that assuming we stay out of foul trouble, our bigs can contain theirs. Outside of Green, they can't really shoot. :driving:
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Watching just the first half of the game against Boise it seems as if they rely heavily on the post. I feel fairly comfortable thinking that assuming we stay out of foul trouble, our bigs can contain theirs. Outside of Green, they can't really shoot. :driving:
I agree in part, but Newbold and Williams are streaky and still shoot over 35% each. It is fair to say both have struggled for the most part for the last few weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those 2 have a solid shooting game. For sure can't lose the Page-ish kid.
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Utah State has 3 fifth year seniors who put on the magic underwear and went on year long fishing trips. Could be troubs.
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How is their post D, would be nice if we get their bigs in foul trouble, would love to see kelly go to work. I think this could be are largest advantage.
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5 out the 6 experts on ESPNU's panel picked Utah State.
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I watched what video I could find of them and the game plan seems simple. Do to them what Colorado did to us. Run Pullen, Peterson, Mcgruder, Kelly, and JO. Have Pullen and Peterson dribble drive and look to kickout. I think Kelly can defend their good forward and JO can just stand under the basket with his hands strait up. Feed Kelly the ball and try to get their forwards in foul trouble.
KSU is longer and more athletic and them having no guards that can penatrate, we should be able to play in your face man to keep their spot shooters guarded.
JMO
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Watching just the first half of the game against Boise it seems as if they rely heavily on the post. I feel fairly comfortable thinking that assuming we stay out of foul trouble, our bigs can contain theirs. Outside of Green, they can't really shoot. :driving:
I agree in part, but Newbold and Williams are streaky and still shoot over 35% each. It is fair to say both have struggled for the most part for the last few weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those 2 have a solid shooting game. For sure can't lose the Page-ish kid.
Fair enough. Another thing I noticed was that they played that sort of matchup zone. _Fan is this something they have played in all of the games that you have watched? It didn't seem to be all that effective against bsu...again though that was just the first half.
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Fair enough. Another thing I noticed was that they played that sort of matchup zone. _Fan is this something they have played in all of the games that you have watched? It didn't seem to be all that effective against bsu...again though that was just the first half.
Yes, the weird zone is common and I think we'll see it. I can see where it could give teams problems because it is pretty unorthodox, but I think we could exploit it pretty bad. I can see ball reversals leading to penetration lanes for Pullen.
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Utah State is 6-21 (.222) in its NCAA tournament history. Its 19 appearances are the most of any member of the Western Athletic Conference. In recent years, the team has won invitations to the tournament in 1998 (under coach Larry Eustachy), 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2010 (all under Morrill). Prior to 2006, all of these invitations were a result of winning the Big West Conference tournament. In both 2006 and 2010, the Aggies received an at-large bid to the tournament after losing in the WAC tournament championship game.
:surprised: Doesn't seem to fit the Utah image.
These assclowns haven't won a post season game in a decade (NIT included). Not sure why they're so butthurt over the 12 seed. They did make the Elite 8 in 1970. :thumbsup:
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These assclowns haven't won a post season game in a decade (NIT included). Not sure why they're so butthurt over the 12 seed. They did make the Elite 8 in 1970. :thumbsup:
This is a good point, Morrill does a great job tearing up whatever league they have been in, but he's won 1 post season game in his career. You would've thought he would've won some games in the NIT with his teams, but he hasn't. He's 1-14 in his coaching career in NIT/NCAA tournament games.
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5 out the 6 experts on ESPNU's panel picked Utah State.
This gives me more confidence that we'll win than the people who picked us for the Final 4.
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Of the 68 teams in the field:
Utah State has the 15th weakest schedule
Kansas State has the 18th strongest schedule
(according to kenpom)
:driving:
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NJSloan212 Nick Sloan
Utah State will beat Kansas State by at least 10 points.
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NJSloan212 Nick Sloan
Utah State will beat Kansas State by at least 10 points.
Who's Nick Sloan? :dunno:
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why have we nto moved onto our 2nd round match up with Belmont yet? :ksu:
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NJSloan212 Nick Sloan
Utah State will beat Kansas State by at least 10 points.
Who's Nick Sloan? :dunno:
Apparently the owner of the Kansas City Kansan online something or other. The website he linked on his Twitter profile appears to be non-existant: http://www.nicksloan.com/ (http://www.nicksloan.com/)
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NJSloan212 Nick Sloan
Utah State will beat Kansas State by at least 10 points.
Who's Nick Sloan? :dunno:
Owner/writer for the Kansas City Kansan. Nick covers a lot of KC area high school ball.
Also, he is a huge MU fan and hates KSU badly.
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We're going to beat these clowns by 40.
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And then we're going to beat those buzzcuts by 25 while Mike and Bill laugh at them from courtside.
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Jamie will cry.
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I don't know who we'll play next, but it's gonna be really ugly.
Hopefully, it's that punk, Steve.
We want a piece.
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Oh my, I can't wait to see the look on Tyrel's face.
Will he wear his Hinrich jersey out of the arena?
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This is the national title.
We don't lose national titles.
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^ :horrorsurprise:
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:surprised: + :love:
your best work in quite some time. well done good sir. well done.
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i watched parts of a few more games. usu is quite a bit better than i gave them credit for after my first look. but still, nothing near their kenpom/ap/etc numbers. 'grats to the committee for seeing through those sham metrics.
defensively, their 3-2 zone is pretty shitty. it looks good when they pack it in against teams with poor shooters, but when they spread out to try and contest against st. mary's, there were holes big enough to drive, or pass, a truck through. their wings don't recover that fast either. nmsu dropped a shooter down into the corner, and they never got to him. he had like 5-6 open looks in about a 10 minute span. i can't imagine they'll play much zone against ksu, but if they do, expect to pick shreds of it off the court.
their man is a lot better. they pack it in, help near the basket and are very physical. depending on how the game is called they could get in huge foul trouble, or kstate could build a wall of offensive inefficiency trying to drive into the middle of their help. individually, they're nothing special, including the wings that usufans like to talk up. newbold tries, which is important, and he's very persistent and aware off the ball. but meh. green is pretty bad. anyone except southwell should be able to take advantage of him if they try.
on ball screens, they did some of everything, switch, double, hard hedge, soft hedge, underneath, over the top. so who knows what they'll do against pullen. but pullen is really good at the ball screens. no matter what they do (other than double), i think he'll be better at attacking it than they are at defending it.
a lot has been made about their defensive rebounding. they're good, but a lot is a function of how packed in their defense is. if they have to spread out against kstate, as i would expect, there should be oboarding opportunities.
they don't appear as good offensively as defensively. the usufans talk up their scheme and execution, but the vids don't totally match their description. they screen away from the ball a lot, and are very physical, but they aren't out there running the clock to 2 and getting a good shot. when they scored effectively, it was usually off a bball move pretty early in the clock. when they had to go late in the clock, they were generally struggling. and even token pressure would slow them down to where they wouldn't even look at the basket till 25-20 on the shot clock. they also turn the ball over pretty easily. you can get beat up trying to defend them, but other than that, they don't appear particularly hard to guard.
wesley seems a little overrated in the post. but was really good on the drive or facing up from about 12-14 away. doesn't like to shoot, but will drive under control, even in a fairly crowded court. i still think you want to deny him, but his ability to score when he gets the ball that far out makes that harder. just have to good help when he moves to the basket.
their wings, again meh. they can hit an open shot, but that's about it. green is better than you'd think on the drive. pane is pullen if pullen couldn't shoot and was a little bit worse at everything pullen and pane both do. white samuels is exactly like samuels.
actually the guy that really impressed me was bendall. when they are struggling offensively, he seems like the guy that bails them out. good shooter, always seems to come open if someone else is doubled, can even put the ball on the floor a little (against other bigs). they also seem to run smoother when he's on the floor, regardless of whether he's with jardine or with wesley.
overall, i can imagine a lot of scenarios where kstate struggles to score (missing jump shots, turnovers trying to force the ball to the bigs or to cutters when they're packed in, trying to drive into their help, etc*). but other than via an outlandish ftrate, it's hard to imagine usu scoring efficiently against kstate's defense. their bigs are pretty solid, but their guards are markedly inferior to kstate's. nebraska is probably a pretty decent style comparison, but sadler wouldn't recognize the quality of bball they play. they're maybe somewhere near isu or ou. maybe not quite that good.
* - thanks to anyone who actually read this whole Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) essay. 76-61 cats, 8 point lead at the half, but feels like it should be 15. 15% chance of losing.
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* - thanks to anyone who actually read this whole Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) essay. 76-61 cats, 8 point lead at the half, but feels like it should be 15. 15% chance of losing.
STRAIGHT TO THE BOTTOM!
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I'm freaking out listening to Chad Milliman talk about how much sharps love Stew.
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* - thanks to anyone who actually read this whole Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) essay. 76-61 cats, 8 point lead at the half, but feels like it should be 15. 15% chance of losing.
sys, don't sell yourself short. That was excellent.
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:driving:
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* - thanks to anyone who actually read this whole Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) essay. 76-61 cats, 8 point lead at the half, but feels like it should be 15. 15% chance of losing.
NOT EVEN GONNA WATCH!
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After reading the analysis from you guys I see ya'll got this. We got no shot against this big time BCSer school. I just hope ya'll don't run up the score towards the end when you're already up 20. Show some mercy to the little no names from Utah. We're just glad to be here and feelin' privileged to play your team. Much love.
1
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After reading the analysis from you guys I see ya'll got this. We got no shot against this big time BCSer school. I just hope ya'll don't run up the score towards the end when you're already up 20. Show some mercy to the little no names from Utah. We're just glad to be here and feelin' privileged to play your team. Much love.
1
Please point out the analysis that guarantees a K-State win.
And of course we will be biased for our team, you guys are on your board as well.
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After reading the analysis from you guys I see ya'll got this. We got no shot against this big time BCSer school. I just hope ya'll don't run up the score towards the end when you're already up 20. Show some mercy to the little no names from Utah. We're just glad to be here and feelin' privileged to play your team. Much love.
1
So your confidence in the Aggies stems from beating the St. Mary's team that lost to Kent State in the NIT last night? Or maybe the crushing defeat you suffered against Georgetown, the only BCS school you've played? Or maybe your confidence comes from the 1-14 record you've had in postseason play since 1970 or so? Forgive us for being confident, your team hasn't exactly lit it up against anyone not named Utah.
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i watched parts of a few more games. usu is quite a bit better than i gave them credit for after my first look. but still, nothing near their kenpom/ap/etc numbers. 'grats to the committee for seeing through those sham metrics.
defensively, their 3-2 zone is pretty shitty. it looks good when they pack it in against teams with poor shooters, but when they spread out to try and contest against st. mary's, there were holes big enough to drive, or pass, a truck through. their wings don't recover that fast either. nmsu dropped a shooter down into the corner, and they never got to him. he had like 5-6 open looks in about a 10 minute span. i can't imagine they'll play much zone against ksu, but if they do, expect to pick shreds of it off the court.
* - thanks to anyone who actually read this whole Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) essay. 76-61 cats, 8 point lead at the half, but feels like it should be 15. 15% chance of losing.
Rodney, let's do this!
:Highfives:
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5 out the 6 experts on ESPNU's panel picked Utah State.
Would be biggest upset in KSU basketball history. Are we due? :ohno:
Top upsets by seed:
1989: #6 seed lost to #11 Minnesota in first round
1993: #6 seed lost to #11 Tulane in first round
1982: #5 seed lost to #8 BC in Sweet 16
2010: #2 seed lost to #5 Bulter in Elite 8
1988: #4 seed lost to #6 Kansas in Elite 8
ALSO: Prior to seeding, the loss to TCU in the 1968 Sweet 16 looks like a bad one, maybe...
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sys, that was amazing. Pretty hbbiq there. Thanks for that. I hope I am able to watch some of their games tonight.
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After reading the analysis from you guys I see ya'll got this. We got no shot against this big time BCSer school. I just hope ya'll don't run up the score towards the end when you're already up 20. Show some mercy to the little no names from Utah. We're just glad to be here and feelin' privileged to play your team. Much love.
1
So your confidence in the Aggies stems from beating the St. Mary's team that lost to Kent State in the NIT last night? Or maybe the crushing defeat you suffered against Georgetown, the only BCS school you've played? Or maybe your confidence comes from the 1-14 record you've had in postseason play since 1970 or so? Forgive us for being confident, your team hasn't exactly lit it up against anyone not named Utah.
You're tuckin' a little man, chill. Now to answer your question, my confidence in you winning by 20 (if you're going easy) does stem partly because of those things.
Thanks for the Utah recognition, and for the record, BYU hasn't beat us in Logan in 10+ years either.
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I wonder how much St. Mary's beating St. John's has helped Utah State in RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, etc. St. John's was crapping all over the place to start the season, but went on a nice run that probably bumped up Utah State in those formulas. How much would Utah State drop if that game were thrown out?