Author Topic: B12 tourney (Read 16136 times)

the KHAN! · « **Reply #25 on:** February 20, 2011, 01:37:26 PM »

We'll see come saturday.

If I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

If you're wrong, you can suck my balls.

steve dave · « **Reply #26 on:** February 20, 2011, 01:37:34 PM »

Quote from: KSU_foo on February 20, 2011, 01:19:39 PM

We won't lose to NU. Mizzou....not so sure.

opposite

CHONGS · « **Reply #27 on:** February 20, 2011, 01:50:02 PM »

3 more wins and we are in.

SdK · « **Reply #28 on:** February 20, 2011, 01:54:51 PM »

10-6

CatsFan_58 · « **Reply #29 on:** February 20, 2011, 03:10:35 PM »

Quote from: skycat on February 20, 2011, 01:14:38 PM

We could lose @ NU and still get a bye by the skin of our teeth. KenPom has Nubb going 8-8, which would likely entail splitting the MU and @ISU games. If NU beats MU in Lincoln (52% win prob.) and loses to ISU in Ames (51% win prob.), and KenPom's other projections hold, we get the bye. Here's the bracket generator output:

1. Texas (15 - 1)
2. Kansas (14 - 2)
3. Texas A&M (10 - 6)
4. Kansas State (8 - 8) With Missouri, defeated Nebraska based on North Division record. Defeated Missouri based on record against #1 North Division teams.
5. Missouri (8 - 8) With Kansas State, defeated Nebraska based on North Division record. Lost to Kansas State based on record against #1 North Division teams. Defeated Nebraska based on North Division record.
6. Nebraska (8 - 8) Lost to Kansas State and Missouri based on North Division record. Lost to Missouri based on North Division record.
7. Baylor (7 - 9) Defeated Colorado based on head-to-head record.
8. Colorado (7 - 9) Lost to Baylor based on head-to-head record.
9. Oklahoma State (6 - 10)
10. Texas Tech (5 - 11) Defeated Oklahoma based on record against #2 North Division teams.
11. Oklahoma (5 - 11) Lost to Texas Tech based on record against #2 North Division teams.
12. Iowa State (3 - 13)

I think that there is a very good possibility that this happens. I am as optimistic as ever... WE WILL GET THAT 4 SEED!!!!

ChiComCat · « **Reply #30 on:** February 20, 2011, 03:53:15 PM »

Mizzou has been crap on the road

sys · « **Reply #31 on:** February 20, 2011, 04:16:58 PM »

Quote from: ChiCat on February 20, 2011, 03:53:15 PM

Mizzou has been crap on the road

1 conf road win. same as nu & ksu. baylor has two.

KSU_foo · « **Reply #32 on:** February 20, 2011, 04:57:46 PM »

Quote from: El Gato on February 20, 2011, 01:37:26 PM

We'll see come saturday.

If I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

If you're wrong, you can suck my balls.

Yep

Vanro03 · « **Reply #33 on:** February 20, 2011, 05:46:49 PM »

Quote from: steve dave on February 20, 2011, 01:10:18 PM

Quote from: doom on February 20, 2011, 12:06:32 PM
Quote from: gatoveintisiete on February 20, 2011, 11:06:38 AM
Seems like bubble teams with a little star power have an edge, remember the Beasley year, this year the beard carries us through even at 8-8.

I would rather mu not be a must win. and even with wins against mu, isu we still need to win our first tourney game or we aren't guaranteed cac.

If we beat NU and MU I guarantee our NCAA spot.

Big words from a Runza employee..

SleepFighter · « **Reply #34 on:** February 20, 2011, 05:50:44 PM »

Quote from: sys on February 20, 2011, 04:16:58 PM

Quote from: ChiCat on February 20, 2011, 03:53:15 PM
Mizzou has been crap on the road

1 conf road win. same as nu & ksu. baylor has two.

Never forget the Cats have 30 seconds of a second road win.

skycat · « **Reply #35 on:** February 21, 2011, 03:39:25 PM »

Quote from: CatsFan_58 on February 20, 2011, 03:10:35 PM

Quote from: skycat on February 20, 2011, 01:14:38 PM
We could lose @ NU and still get a bye by the skin of our teeth. KenPom has Nubb going 8-8, which would likely entail splitting the MU and @ISU games. If NU beats MU in Lincoln (52% win prob.) and loses to ISU in Ames (51% win prob.), and KenPom's other projections hold, we get the bye. Here's the bracket generator output:

1. Texas (15 - 1)
2. Kansas (14 - 2)
3. Texas A&M (10 - 6)
4. Kansas State (8 - 8) With Missouri, defeated Nebraska based on North Division record. Defeated Missouri based on record against #1 North Division teams.
5. Missouri (8 - 8) With Kansas State, defeated Nebraska based on North Division record. Lost to Kansas State based on record against #1 North Division teams. Defeated Nebraska based on North Division record.
6. Nebraska (8 - 8) Lost to Kansas State and Missouri based on North Division record. Lost to Missouri based on North Division record.
7. Baylor (7 - 9) Defeated Colorado based on head-to-head record.
8. Colorado (7 - 9) Lost to Baylor based on head-to-head record.
9. Oklahoma State (6 - 10)
10. Texas Tech (5 - 11) Defeated Oklahoma based on record against #2 North Division teams.
11. Oklahoma (5 - 11) Lost to Texas Tech based on record against #2 North Division teams.
12. Iowa State (3 - 13)
I think that there is a very good possibility that this happens. I am as optimistic as ever... WE WILL GET THAT 4 SEED!!!!

It's the most likely scenario:

http://www.bringonthecats.com/2011/2/21/2004474/big-12-outlook-02-21-11#storyjump

However, everything would still have to go just right. Much better to beat NU and get a little breathing room.

Gooch · « **Reply #36 on:** February 21, 2011, 03:45:55 PM »

No Wednesday!

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #37 on:** February 21, 2011, 10:48:27 PM »

I don't think we will lose again until we get to the Big 12 Tournament.

SdK · « **Reply #38 on:** February 21, 2011, 10:50:35 PM »

Quote from: Nuts Kicked on February 21, 2011, 10:48:27 PM

I don't think we will lose again until we get to the Big 12 Tournament.

If that happens...we go 3-1 in Big Monday games. One of the biggest shocks, after the team face-planted, of the season. (for me)

AppleJack · « **Reply #39 on:** February 23, 2011, 10:42:52 PM »

Looks like us vs Miz for the 4. Smell ya later Baylor and Nub

mcmwcat · « **Reply #40 on:** February 23, 2011, 11:30:59 PM »

wierd. if i do the bracket projector as

KSU: MU(W), @UT(L), ISU(W)
MU: @KSU(L), @NU(L), KU(W) =>

Quote

4. Missouri (9 - 7) Defeated Kansas State based on record against #4 North Division teams.

but if i switch to
MU: @KSU(L), @NU(W), KU(L) =>

Quote

4. Kansas State (9 - 7) Defeated Missouri based on record against #1 North Division teams.

neither teams North records change. but swapping out the results for Missouri against KU and NU flips the seedings.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #41 on:** February 24, 2011, 01:36:29 AM »

Quote from: mcmwcat on February 23, 2011, 11:30:59 PM

wierd. if i do the bracket projector as

KSU: MU(W), @UT(L), ISU(W)
MU: @KSU(L), @NU(L), KU(W) =>
Quote
4. Missouri (9 - 7) Defeated Kansas State based on record against #4 North Division teams.

but if i switch to
MU: @KSU(L), @NU(W), KU(L) =>
Quote
4. Kansas State (9 - 7) Defeated Missouri based on record against #1 North Division teams.

neither teams North records change. but swapping out the results for Missouri against KU and NU flips the seedings.

Yeah because if they beat KU the tie breaker of record against the #1 team in the division would be the same 1-1 versus KU. Mizzou and KSU would finish 2nd & 3rd in this scenario so then you go to the record against the #4 team. In whatever you generated Nebraska finished behind Colorado for 4th. KSU was 0-2 versus CU and Mizzou was 1-1. Therefore the third to last tiebreaker would go to Mizzou. It is not very likely that the standings will finish with Colorado finishing 4th and KSU and Mizzou would have to use that tie breaker. As a matter of fact KSU, Mizzou, NU, and CU would have to win/lose an exact combination of games for this to play out. I'm no mathematician but I'm pretty sure there are still around 100 win combination possibilities for these four teams.

Also worth noting that Colorado and Nebraska are still very much alive for the 4 seed. Colorado will likely be eliminated on Saturday, Nebraska will need to win in Ames.

the KHAN! · « **Reply #42 on:** February 24, 2011, 11:05:52 AM »

Quote from: El Gato on February 20, 2011, 01:37:26 PM

We'll see come saturday.

If I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

If you're wrong, you can suck my balls.

Okay now, looks like someone owes me a ball sucking...

Dirty Sanchez · « **Reply #43 on:** February 26, 2011, 04:34:12 PM »

Update

This week has really sorted things out. As mentioned above, its us and mizzou for #4. Looking at the schedules and tiebreakers, here's the breakdown:

KSU: @texas, iowa st.---despite our history with texas, I'm going conservative and say 1-1
mu: @nebraska, uk--I'd say at best 1-1. nebraska could be a trap game on the road, preparing for uk, and nebraska being a little angry at the iowa st loss.

Obviously, if we go 1-1 (or 2-0) and mizzou goes 0-2, we get the 4.

Now if we lose to texas and beat iowa st and mizzou beats nebraska and loses to uk. The tiebreakers go 1)head2head-split 2)division record-tied @6-4. 3)record against the top team in the division (uk)--Advantage KSU.

If we lose texas and win iowa st and mizzou loses to nebraska and beats uk, the same tiebreakers go until 3, when, if I'm reading it right, would go to common record against other division teams. uk/KSU/mu-tie. Then it would fall to colorado--Advantage mizzou.

The texas game is inconsequential if mizzou loses either game (I think they will lose either or both), because its a non-divisional game. Outside of NCAA resume's, the iowa st game is more important to us. Might be more to lose by losing to them than there is to gain beating texas.

Tiebreaker list:

http://www.big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&ATCLID=1520897

CatMission · « **Reply #44 on:** February 26, 2011, 05:48:46 PM »

Be careful, fracking Colorado could blow us up. They have an opportunity to also finish 9-7 (@ISU, NU) and we could fall as low as #6 if we finish in a three-way tie with CU and MU.

sys · « **Reply #45 on:** February 26, 2011, 06:02:01 PM »

so it seems like a three way tie would go cu 4. then kstate 5 if mu beats nu, kstate 6 if mu beats ku.

worth pointing out that a three way tie is highly unlikely, even though each individual game needed for the tie might appear fairly likely.

ednksu · « **Reply #46 on:** February 26, 2011, 06:03:08 PM »

Quote from: CatMission on February 26, 2011, 05:48:46 PM

Be careful, fracking Colorado could blow us up. They have an opportunity to also finish 9-7 (@ISU, NU) and we could fall as low as #6 if we finish in a three-way tie with CU and MU.

scary

sys · « **Reply #47 on:** February 26, 2011, 06:03:58 PM »

dream scenario, obviously, is kstate gets the no-wed by 10-6ing, to play five seed cu.

TheMadCatter · « **Reply #48 on:** February 26, 2011, 06:12:37 PM »

Quote from: sys on February 26, 2011, 06:03:58 PM

dream scenario, obviously, is kstate gets the no-wed by 10-6ing, to play five seed cu.

That would be amazing.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #49 on:** February 26, 2011, 06:50:43 PM »

Quote from: Dirty Sanchez on February 26, 2011, 04:34:12 PM

Update

This week has really sorted things out. As mentioned above, its us and mizzou for #4. Looking at the schedules and tiebreakers, here's the breakdown:

KSU: @texas, iowa st.---despite our history with texas, I'm going conservative and say 1-1
mu: @nebraska, uk--I'd say at best 1-1. nebraska could be a trap game on the road, preparing for uk, and nebraska being a little angry at the iowa st loss.

Obviously, if we go 1-1 (or 2-0) and mizzou goes 0-2, we get the 4.

Now if we lose to texas and beat iowa st and mizzou beats nebraska and loses to uk. The tiebreakers go 1)head2head-split 2)division record-tied @6-4. 3)record against the top team in the division (uk)--Advantage KSU.

If we lose texas and win iowa st and mizzou loses to nebraska and beats uk, the same tiebreakers go until 3, when, if I'm reading it right, would go to common record against other division teams. uk/KSU/mu-tie. Then it would fall to colorado--Advantage mizzou.

The texas game is inconsequential if mizzou loses either game (I think they will lose either or both), because its a non-divisional game. Outside of NCAA resume's, the iowa st game is more important to us. Might be more to lose by losing to them than there is to gain beating texas.

Tiebreaker list:

http://www.big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&ATCLID=1520897

This week cleared nothing up, Nebraska eliminated themselves, that's it. The CU win was a worst case scenario. Hell A&M could easily finish 6th and they've been third all season. This race is fun to watch, there are 13 games left and 11 of them have direct impact on the top 7 seeds. OU plays in both meaningless games. People who disparage basketballs regular season are idiots.