Mercury/Janssen with a good one...

[ksu_FAN]

Well, most K-State fans won't like it, but some pretty decent comments from Lunardi and Palm.

"They're down to No. 56 in the RPI and generally that's not a good place to be," Palm said. "I was probably being kind (to put them in). They're 1-5 against Top 50 RPI teams, which tells me they're not quite ready for the prime time."

"Even their nice wins over Southern Cal and Texas aren't giving team much RPI punch," Lunardi said. "Plus they have a couple bad losses. They really need to finish strong. More than likely, they'll be in the NIT field.'

Both agree that that even if the 8-5, 19-9 Wildcats finish with 10 Big 12 wins and receive a first-round bye in the Big 12 Championships, their fate would be most uncertain.

"That wouldn't mean a thing," Palm said. "They played the better teams (Texas A&M and Texas) only once. They're just 1-4 against the upper-half teams. Their wins came against the soft teams."

"The committee is going to look at their unbalanced schedule," Lunardi said of playing the Big 12's North teams twice and South's teams only once. "Does their fourth-place standing make them better than a fifth- or sixth-place team that plays in the South?

"That will automatically be discussed by the committee,"said Lunardi, who works in the marketing department of St. Joseph's University in Philadelphia. "They'll ask, 'Are they really the fourth best team?" and the reasonable answer will be that they are not. Their fourth-place standing is more an accident of the circumstances rather than a measure of performance."

"Tech has the nice wins, but also shown the ability to lose to anyone," Palm said.

"Kansas State really needs that win at Oklahoma State," Palm said. "That or do some things against the upper-division teams in the Big 12 tournament."
Lunardi agreed. "K-State really needs another scalp. They just have to get one more high-level win. Maybe two, but for sure one."

And while Monday's loss to Kansas really didn't hurt K-State's chances, a win at home over Oklahoma (No. 82 RPI rating) in the regular-season finale would not help the Wildcats.

"Its a game they (KSU) are supposed to win, so no value is really added," Lunardi said. "They're doing what they're supposed to do."

We won't like some of those, and maybe they're a bit over the top (not quite ready for prime time, accident of circumstances), but probably pretty accurate.  I suppose not much different than much of the discussion, but the OSU game seems to be even bigger.  OSU-KSU could be an elimination game.  @CU and OU are just games we should win and can only hurt us by losing, but winning doesn't really give us a big bump.

[CatMission]

These are the same people who a month ago complained that we needed a signature win. Well we got one and that still isn't good enough.  Just watch, in the event we win at OSU next week, the "experts" will not reward KSU with adulation on a good win, but instead downgrade OSu for losing another game at home.

Jerry Palm is in a panic over all of those stories two weeks ago by the writers who attended the mock committee selection who said, to a man, that RPI was nothing more than a slight reference point in their discussion.  Since Palm makes his living by selling his accurate RPI tracker, this has made him completely irrelavant.

Fourth place (10 or 11 wins) and a win vs 5 or 12 seed in Big 12 qtrs and we are in.

[fatty fat fat]

Please. 10-6, one win in the tournament and we are a lock. We don't 100% need that OSU win.

[ksu_FAN]

I can see those arguments, and maybe these guys aren't good this early, but most of the time they are maybe 1 or 2 off in their picks.  I think they have a point, they might not be 100%, but they have a point. 

I had to shake my head at the "research" at the end.  1 team has had 10 wins and not gone and no team with a bye have not been picked.  Come on Mercury, you're better than that.

[fatty fat fat]

Seriously, if we finish 10-6 then we are a lock for 4th in the conference. At best, the 5th team will be 9-7, and the 6th team will be more than likely 8-8. That = SEPARATION

If we win the 4/5 game, we will be in the semis on a Saturday afternoon. That = SEPARATION.

It would take some crazy balls from the NCAA selection dudes to snubb us with 11 big 12 wins.

[michigancat]

Our record vs. the North:

ISU: 2-0
MU: 2-0
CU: 2-0 ()
NU: 1-1
ku: 0-2

Now, let's say we take oSu's place in the south:

BU: 2-0
OU: 1-1
TT: 1-1
aTm: 1-1
UT: 1-1

That's a one game difference.  According to Lunardi, we're basically being punished because we play all our top 50 teams on the road. 

We'd actually be better off playing in the south, because we'd get to play 4 or 5 top 50 teams at home vs. 2 under our current schedule.

[sys]

we need 3 more.  the more optimistic among our fan base are basically ignoring reality.  the 2 cu wins are meaningless, and the osu wins not a whole lot better.  other than winning ourselves, the better mu and nu do, the better we look.  nice of them to come on lately.

still, the odds are about 50:50 for ksu now.

[fatty fat fat]

BU destroying NU.

[Joker]

Hate to say it, but I agree with what they are saying about quality wins. 

We've been winning most of the games we're supposed to win against a weak north division.  But we have more bad losses to teams we should have beaten than we do good wins against quality teams.

I'm guessing that if we were looking at a different team with a resume similar to ours, most on here would agree that they probably shouldn't get into the tournament.

I think we need to win the next three.

[sys]

BU destroying NU.

yeah.  it sucks.

[fatty fat fat]

Hate to say it, but I agree with what they are saying about quality wins. 

We've been winning most of the games we're supposed to win against a weak north division.  But we have more bad losses to teams we should have beaten than we do good wins against quality teams.

I'm guessing that if we were looking at a different team with a resume similar to ours, most on here would agree that they probably shouldn't get into the tournament.

I think we need to win the next three.

If we had beaten TT no one would regard it as a quality win imo. It would rank up there with the Mizzou win.

Winning @UT is an "elite" win. Seriously, that was big time.

[michigancat]

Lunardi agreed. "K-State really needs another scalp. They just have to get one more high-level win. Maybe two, but for sure one."

This guy has a 20-6 BYU team with wins quality wins over:

1. Air Force
2. UNLV

...in as a 6 seed.

 

[WILDCAT NATION]

My only comment on what those experts are sayin' is this.

If the North is so damned horrible, how can Misery have just one loss to anyone south of the Oklahoma Border with just A&M left to play?

NOTE:  KSU swept that same team, played on A&M's court within 5 points (and lost Bill Walker), lost to Tech after losing their star player, and beat UT on their own floor, the only team to do that to UT in a long time.

Looking at the wins Okie State had early in the season and then seeing what they've done in conference tells me this conference isn't half as bad at the pundits like to think it is.

[Dan Rydell]

Going into tonight, didn't the South just have four more wins over the north?  That's hardly dominance.  That's with the top 2 teams in the North at only .500 against the South at this point, too. 

South >>>>>> North has largely been a myth so far this season (at least to the extent that it's proclaimed), and appears mainly to be a result of Baylor's and OSU's overrating by everyone and the uncertainty surrounding the new coaches in the North.

[Kat Kid]

Hate to say it, but I agree with what they are saying about quality wins. 

We've been winning most of the games we're supposed to win against a weak north division.  But we have more bad losses to teams we should have beaten than we do good wins against quality teams.

I'm guessing that if we were looking at a different team with a resume similar to ours, most on here would agree that they probably shouldn't get into the tournament.

I think we need to win the next three.

If we had beaten TT no one would regard it as a quality win imo. It would rank up there with the Mizzou win.

Winning @UT is an "elite" win. Seriously, that was big time.

Extremely true.

I think these guys are as full of it as most of the rest of these guys peddling their "incredible insight."

Lunardi gets his bracket "1-2 off" every year because he puts out like 400,000 brackets.  He puts out about half of these right before the official bracket comes out and with the benefit of talking with the people who make them or have made them in the past.  I'd put him just above snake oil salesman and right below hack.

That said, there is no "formula" for making the tourney.  They tourney committee is like the Academy; it has quirks, it is glaringly human and it is guaranteed to surprise (and disappoint).

The best I can figure is this:

1.  KSU is clearly a bubble team from a major conference.
2.  The traditional "big-name" super-conferences (Big East/ACC) are both "down" (although in different ways)
I predict at most 12 bids between the two
      Big East (Lunardi sez 7)
Pittsburgh   11-2   24-4   
Georgetown   11-2   21-5   
Louisville       10-4    20-8   
Notre Dame   9-5   21-6   
Marquette   9-5   22-7   
Syracuse   8-5   19-8        RPI Rank: 63    SOS Rank: 61     Record: 19-8 (8-5)  I don't think they make it
West Virginia   8-6   20-7
(teams like Cinci and one of last year's #1 seeds UConn are out)


         ACC  (Lunardi sez 6)  the problem with ACC is they will have a TON of 20 win teams with mediocre conference records
North Carolina   9-3   23-4   
Virginia Tech   9-4   19-8   
Virginia       9-4      18-8   
Boston College   9-5   18-9   
Duke              7-6     20-7   
Maryland   6-6    20-7              
Georgia Tech   6-7   18-9   
Clemson            5-7   19-7   
Florida State   5-8   17-10
  Only One of these teams will get in barring an upset in the conference tourney.  Florida St.  is 5-8 in                    conference and those "pundits" that are pimping them forget that at some point, that matters (along with road game wins).

3.  The Big XII is WAY down and it is true, our unbalanced conference schedule hurts us.  The best scenario is that O-State beats Tech and Texas either wins 2 of 3 or loses all of its games down the stretch.  Either making the Oklahoma game seem decent as OU would have "built momentum" with a win over Texas, or re-emphasizing the greatness of the Texas road victory.  WE MUST NOT CHOKE IN THE TWO GIMMIES.  But overall, these last three games for K-STATE are all winnable.  STILL,  the Big XII will get 5 teams and they will not take two teams below the #4 team in the standings.

4.  The SEC is getting 5 teams and no more.  The SEC WEST has a three-way tie at the top (6-6).
5.  Arizona just got crushed, is on a two-game losing streak and finishes with three straight on the road.  If they melt down and lose 5 straight to end the season, they will get the bump.  17 wins, 5 game losing streak, 8-10 in conference.
6.  The Big 10 is getting only 5 teams.
7.  I have no idea what any of this means.

[Dan Rydell]

Our record vs. the North:

ISU: 2-0
MU: 2-0
CU: 2-0 ()
NU: 1-1
ku: 0-2

Now, let's say we take oSu's place in the south:

BU: 2-0
OU: 1-1
TT: 1-1
aTm: 1-1
UT: 1-1

That's a one game difference.  According to Lunardi, we're basically being punished because we play all our top 50 teams on the road. 

We'd actually be better off playing in the south, because we'd get to play 4 or 5 top 50 teams at home vs. 2 under our current schedule.

http://www.ksufans.com/forums/index.php?topic=7781.msg80480#msg80480

Swapping with OSU, as the closest south school.

vs. North

@ ku  L
OSU  W
MU  W
@ NU  W
@ CU   W
ISU   W

vs. South

UT  L
@ UT W
aTm  L
@ aTm L
BU W
@ BU W
OU W
@ OU L
Tech  L
@ Tech W

10-6 in conference.  Wouldn't make much of a difference being in the better division, unless the guys wore down a little more due to playing better competition overall.

Me.  Ahead of the curve since 1979.  

[McGrowlTowelZac]

OSU is getting hammered by A&M, so even if we beat OSU next week, it won't count for anything in the end.  Just our luck. we really need to win out and win one in the conference tournament, or 2-1 in last 3 games and win 2 if possible in the conference tourney, then we're a lock....maybe

[WildCatzPhreak]

We really do need to go 3-0 and even win 1 in the tourney to feel confident about dancing.

Anything less is probably NIT worthy.  Our RPI is really high for a NCAA worthy team.

[ksu_FAN]

If we win the final 3 conference games and lose on friday in OKC, we'll be in pretty good shape.  CU will have minimal effect (we may even drop a couple spots), but a win @ OSU and even vs OU at home will move us up, probably into the upper to middle 40s.  A loss on a neutral floor to MU or Tech would have minimal effect.  At that point we'd have a 7-7 record on the road which the committee would look favorably on b/c we showed a willingness to go on the road, and would finish 5-3 on the road in the league.  Our resume would look a lot like aTm's last year, but we'd have gone on the road a lot more. 

Tonight NU eliminated any chance at 5th, and OSU has little to no shot with 3 road games remaining and OU was out of the running with their loss at ISU.  I think its pretty much Tech and MU battling for 5th and 6th now barring some unexpected upsets. 

[ksu_FAN]

Another thing on Lunardi's logic; there is no way ku deserves to be a 2 seed b/c they play in the north.  If they played in the south they'd be lucky to get a 4 seed because of the "accident of circumstances of playing in the north" factor. 

Again, I don't think what these guys said is completely without merit, but I do think they went over the top with some of their comments.  And its obvious they really haven't studied the Big 12, especially between the north and south, other than just scanning the records.

[dmartin]

Apparently it's time to start conference play 3 weeks earlier and switch to a 22 game conference season, playing every team twice.

[catzacker]

That article just reinforces the fact that we need to go 3-0 and probably win 1 in the big 12 tourney to leave no doubt.  The OSU game is looking more and more like it's going to be considered a "should win" for KSU.  It'd be tough to keep out a 11-5, #4 seed in the Big 12.  The only part that I really find disturbing or illogical, is the idea that our wins were against soft teams.....like the same thing can't be said for the top 3 or 4 teams in every conference.....that's what makes them the strong team and the other teams soft. 

I get the feeling we're staring at another "K-State rule", so to speak. 

[wildbear]

The NCAA selection committee does pretty much what they damn well please.

For an example look how Cincy and Andy Kennedy got screwed last season.

The fact that Huggins is coaching KSU will make a difference.

[Fedor]

We have a pretty good shot at finishing 4th, I would say a lock but I don't want to jinx it.  So the question is two fold:
1.  Has the Big XII ever gotten less than 4 teams in?
2.  Has a team in the conference ever been left out of the tournament while a team finishing below it in the conference standing went dancing?

If the answer is no to both of those I think all this other BS about RPI and needing to win out doesn't matter much. 

You may now commence telling me I am a crazy fool and the like.

[michigancat]

9-7 Tech got picked over 10-6 CU in 2004.

http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/big12/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/record_book.pdf

[WildCatzPhreak]

We have a pretty good shot at finishing 4th, I would say a lock but I don't want to jinx it.  So the question is two fold:
1.  Has the Big XII ever gotten less than 4 teams in?
2.  Has a team in the conference ever been left out of the tournament while a team finishing below it in the conference standing went dancing?

If the answer is no to both of those I think all this other BS about RPI and needing to win out doesn't matter much. 

You may now commence telling me I am a crazy fool and the like.

Finishing fourth means nothing in terms of NCAA selection.  Resume's mean everything.  Right now I'd say our resume is better than OSU(They haven't won a true road game all year, have a real possibillity of finishing .500 or below in conference, and have lost a lot of their last ten games) and probably slight under Tech(They've lost a lot of games down the stretch so that could help, but their wins over A&M, A&M, and ku carry a LOT of weight.  They also beat us head to head.)

What hurts us the most in terms of resume is that our best wins are Texas and USC.  USC is like 60 in the RPI and Texas is only in the 40-50 range.  We've had our chances against the top 50, but ended up going 1/5.  With a high RPI for a tourney team(55 right now) and no really "good" wins, we need at least one more nice thing to stick out on our resume.  Technically both USC and Texas are bubble teams, so our best wins are over teams that technically may not even make the dance.

I mean really, if you look at our conference season, we've won all that we were supposed to except for one(Nebraska,) We went 1-1 in games that were "tossups" Texas and Texas Tech, and we went O-fer in games that would have been considered big upsets(Really the only two teams we could have done this against were A&M and ku.)

Beating OSU would really help, but as some pointed out above, with the way OSU is crashing and burning right now beating them would probably get put in the "tossup" area instead of the "good wins" category.  It's absolute bullcrap, but it's the unfortunate truth.

What would really, really help us is if Texas beat A&M, ku, or both.  That would make our victory of them more of a "signature" win and make our resume look a little more impressive.  In the meantime, we still need to win the games we're supposed to to help our RPI.  Colorado won't help at all, but OSU has a nice bloated RPI and winning on the road at their place would surely bump us up at least into the top 50, which is where we need to be at minimum.

[jsstuber]

They have never left a team with 10 conference wins and 20+ overall out of the tournament.  Does anyone think they are going to start this with us?  We need to take care of business and get 2 of the final 3.

[Dan Rydell]

They have never left a team with 10 conference wins and 20+ overall out of the tournament.  Does anyone think they are going to start this with us?  We need to take care of business and get 2 of the final 3.

Yes, if there are enough other teams with 10 and 20 who have better wins and losses.  Or even some with 9 and 19 who have beaten 3 or 4 Top 50 teams.

This isn't a set standard.  It's a curve.

[WildCatzPhreak]

They have never left a team with 10 conference wins and 20+ overall out of the tournament.  Does anyone think they are going to start this with us?  We need to take care of business and get 2 of the final 3.

I hate when people say something like this.  Just because they haven't before means nothing.  They don't care about what they've done in the past, especially with the adjustment to RPI they made last year.

What they care about is putting the teams with the best resumes in the at-large spots.  They don't give two craps if we finish 4th in the conference.  Let me say this, even though it will piss a lot of the coolaid drinkers off: EVEN IF WE FINISH THIRD, THERE'S STILL A BIG POSSIBILITY WE DON'T GO.  If we finish 3rd, it means that Texas has lost at least one, possibly two.  That takes our only good win off our resume.

There are four ways we get to the tournament as of right now:

1) Go 3-0 and boost our RPI enough, then win a tournament game.
2) Go 2-1, with our loss coming at OSU, then win a tournament game against a team with higher RPI than us(First round game possibility is Tech, second round game A&M or ku.)
3) An upset of A&M or ku trumps all of the above and puts us in as a lock unless we do something horrible like lose to Colorado.
4.) Win the conference tournament and receive an autobid.  Obviously trumps everything.  Unless there are some MAJOR upsets in the tournament, we'd have to beat ku and A&M to do this.  Don't count on it.

[ksu_FAN]

The 20 win argument is way overblown.

What most people don't realize is almost every team in college basketball played more OOC games this year than any other year in the history of college basketball.  The NCAA changed the rules with exempt tournaments this past year and with that allowed teams to schedule 2 more OOC games if they are not in an exempt tournament AND opened up exempt tournaments so you can play in one every year if you want to.  As a result teams (with 16 conference game) can now play 13 instead of 11 OOC games without an exempt tournament and 15 instead of 14 OOC games with an exempt tournament.

I still think any combination of 3-1 still gets us in; 4 more wins and we're a slam dunk lock.