Date: 25/08/25 - 09:53 AM   48060 Topics and 694399 Posts

Author Topic: Breakdown of bubble teams (as of 2-18)  (Read 578 times)

February 18, 2007, 06:59:49 PM
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PowercatPosse

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There are 34 at large bids.  Right now the mid majors/smaller conferences only have 3 teams that look really good at getting at larges.  The Mt West is going to get 3 teams in (2 at large). UNLV, Air Force and BYU are those 3. So Illinois and Creighton are the 2 that will get in for sure in the Mo Valley.

So the 6 major conferences could get as many as 37 teams (31 at large and 6 league champs) in the tourney.  35 or 36 is more likely, but 37 is possible as of today.

Here are the teams that look good right now for the NCAA tourney ---
** Big 12 (4) ku, aTm, UT, TT.   Even though Tech is only 6-6, the 3 wins vs aTm/ku hold a lot of weight. 
** ACC (6) UNC, BC, VT, Virg, Duke, Maryland
** B East (6) Pitt, Gtown, Nova, Marquette, Louisville, N Dame
** SEC (4) Fla, uk, Vandy, Tenn
** Pac 10 (6) Ucla, Wash St, USC, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford
** Big 10 (3) Ohio St, Wisc, Indiana

So that would leave 8 spots right now that are up for grabs IMO.  Here are the contenders (13 total) ---
* KSU (B12) Good conf record 8-4 (19-8).  Only 2 good wins. RPI is around 50. 7 road/nuetral wins.
* OK ST (B12) only 5-6 conf record (18-7).  4 good wins and RPI is 36. aTm and at Tech next 2 games

* Clemson (ACC) conf record only 5-7 (19-7) 5 good wins and RPI of 30.  Lost 7 of 9 and have 3 tough games left (Duke, at VT, at BC)
* Florida St (ACC) conf record a dismal 5-8(17-10).  3 wins vs top 25 RPI is only reason they are even on this list. 
* Ga Tech (ACC) conf record only 5-7.  They do have 6 good wins.  RPI is only around 47

* W Virg (BEast) Have a good conf record 8-5 (19-6).  Only 2 good wins and RPI is around 50.  Similar to KSU except they did beat Ucla
* Syracuse (B East) good conf. record of 8-5 (19-8).  Only 2 good wins and RPI is high at 62.

* Alabama (SEC) Have a good RPI of around 25.   Only 6-6 in conf (18-7) and only have 2 good wins. 
* Georgia (SEC) Conf record 7-5 (15-9).  3 good wins and RPI is around 50

* Purdue (B10) Conf record of 6-6 (17-9). 4 good wins, RPI is 37.  Only 1-7 on road.
* Illinois (B10) Conf record of 7-6 (18-9). 3-8 vs top 50 RPI.  RPI is 42
* Mich st (B10) conf record of 6-6 (19-8). RPI is 31.  4 good wins.  Still play Wisc twice

* Missouri St (Mo Vall) conf record is 10-6 (18-9). RPI is 41.  Good win vs Wisc

February 18, 2007, 07:04:32 PM
Reply #1

Pett

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I would put Texas Tech as the other bubble team from the Big 12 along with us.....not OSU. It's gonna be hard for TT due to their schedule coming up mostly adding in that they lost to Nebraska, Baylor, & Mizzou.


 :ksu:

February 18, 2007, 07:30:40 PM
Reply #2

PowercatPosse

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Tech still has work to do, but they are in better shape than Osu right now.   They have 3 wins over top 10 teams, while Osu has the win over Pitt.    The Cowboys have also lost 5 of 7 and have a tougher B12 slate IMO the rest of the way.  They have not played well on the road and have 2 losable games at Tech and at NU.  Then have aTm at home and us at home. 

If Tech loses to Osu at home, then they could be in trouble, but i think if they go 8-8 and get one B12 tourney win, they still have a good shot at getting in.  Like I said those 3 wins over ku/aTm will carry a lot of weight with the committee

February 18, 2007, 07:31:24 PM
Reply #3

ChicoRodriguez

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Tech is on the bubble.  KSU is not.

February 18, 2007, 07:38:31 PM
Reply #4

PowercatPosse

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I could have put Maryland and T Tech in that bubble group.  both are 6-6 in their conf. and both can't afford a letdown here these last 2-3 weeks.   It's just my opinion that both of those teams are in right now.

February 18, 2007, 07:42:05 PM
Reply #5

AzCat

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Tech's definitely a bubble team until they prove otherwise because no one from the Big XII has ever made the dance with an 8-8 conference record.  They need at least a 3-1 finish and play @UT, @ISU, OSU & Baylor.  There's really only one sure thing there but two of those are very losable and one might present some challenge.  They're far from a lock at this point.
Ladies & gentlemen, I present: The Problem

February 18, 2007, 09:32:38 PM
Reply #6

PowercatPosse

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I don't think any 8-8 Big XII team has ever had 3 wins over teams that will be a 1 or 2 seed either.   There were a lot of teams in that group above that were .500 or below in their own conference (right now) that don't have the 3 big time wins that Tech has.  But even that said, I don't feel Tech is a lock by any meens.  I just like their chances more than those 3 ACC teams with losing records in conf or the B10 teams that are playing .500 in conf.

As of right now, I would have this ---
aTm and ku - 2 seeds
UT --- 8 or 9 seed
TT -- 10 seed
Ksu -- 11 seed
Osu --- not sure.  We will know more about where they stand after next week when they play aTm and at Tech.

Rusty,

 I mention those 3 teams in my first paragraph above. I think those 3 Mt West teams are all in right now.  UNLV and AF are 12 and 13 in the RPI and BYU is leading that conf with a 10-2 mark and RPI of 20
« Last Edit: February 18, 2007, 09:47:35 PM by PowercatPosse »

February 18, 2007, 09:51:05 PM
Reply #7

AzCat

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If Tech finishes 3-1 they'll get a slot but it's entirely possible that they'll finish 8-8.  I honestly can't see more than five Big XII teams making it this year so an 8-8 Tech would be bumping a 10-6 or 11-5 KSU.  At 10-6 that's a stretch even with Tech's big wins but at 11-5 I'd say it's more a fantasy.
Ladies & gentlemen, I present: The Problem

February 18, 2007, 10:02:59 PM
Reply #8

PowercatPosse

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Yeah at 11-5 KSU is a sure fire lock.  The Big 12 may get 5 and Osu may be the one left out

I am not counting OK ST in right now.  They are 5-6 and have played terrible on the road this year.  Between at Tech, at NU and home vs aTM, I don't see Osu coming out of that any better than 1-2 right now.  Plus Osu is so worn down with a short bench that we could get them too.  Mizzou beat them, Baylor and OU lost close games in Stillwater.  We are better than those 3 teams. I won't be shocked if Osu ends at 7-9.

we will see what happens the next 2-3 weeks, but right now the 6-6 Tech team has a better resume than the 5-6 Osu team
« Last Edit: February 18, 2007, 10:06:32 PM by PowercatPosse »

February 18, 2007, 10:28:10 PM
Reply #9

Pett

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Good post PowercatPosse.....looks like you did you homework...



 :ksu:

February 18, 2007, 11:01:35 PM
Reply #10

BMWJhawk

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Great post, PowercatPosse.  Finally some actual basketball discussion.

Looking at the bubble teams, I think K-State and Oklahoma St. are both in.  At this point, the other six teams would have to be Syracuse, West Virginia, Alabama, Illinois, Michigan State, and Missouri State.







February 18, 2007, 11:31:57 PM
Reply #11

PowercatPosse

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Regardless of what happens tommorrow night, If Ksu get to 10-6 and finishes in the top 4 of the Big12 (which seems likely) then we should be in the Dance.

Mich St has a tough remaining schedule.  They get Wisc twice and have Indiana at home.  I don't think any Big 10 that is 8-8 should get in, so Purdue and Illinois look more promising to get a 9-7 record at this point

Mo State is gonna be really hurting if the Shockers beat them down in Wichita this week. 11-7 in that conference is not real great IMO.