Where we stand (Intensive analysis of Conference picture)

[Kat Kid]

Right now we are 4th in the Big XII, we play Mizzou on Wed., let's take a look at the teams we are competing for a tourney bid with.

Bubble

T-Tech: lost to Missouri today
tied with us at 4-2 now

Remaining Games (bolded are toughies):
Texas   at Oklahoma   Nebraska   at #16 Oklahoma St   at #6 Texas A&M     Colorado   at Texas    #16 Oklahoma St     Baylor   at Iowa St
estimated record: 9-7

Okie St.:  beat the Clones
4-2

at Colorado   at Oklahoma   Texas Tech   at Texas       Missouri   #6 Texas A&M   at Texas Tech   Kansas St   at Baylor   at Nebraska

Very favorable schedule left considering they only have one against Texas and A&M and already played ku.  They should be favored in 8 more games.
estimated record 10-6 to 12-4

The Elites All 5-1

Johnson Co.: beat CU


at Nebraska   #6 Texas A&M   Kansas St   at Missouri   at Colorado   Nebraska   at Kansas St    Iowa St   at Oklahoma   Texas


People say ku has by far the easiest schedule left, but they do still have two rivalry games on the road left.  They do get Texas and A&M at home and that is huge.  I see them dropping 2 more games tops, barring any sort of weird melt down.
estimated record 13-3


t-sips: beat Baylor

at Texas Tech   Kansas St   at #6 Texas A&M    Iowa St   #16 Oklahoma St     at Baylor   Texas Tech   at Oklahoma   #6 Texas A&M   at #8 Kansas

Just a brutal schedule.  They don't have any home court advantage at all and they have had two straight "scare" games.  Their next three will be crucial.  If they go on a run then they will be very dangerous, but they have two trap games and then A&M on the road then finish with A&M then @ ku.  I see them as the most likely to melt down the stretch, but Durant has risen to every occasion thus far.

estimated record: 9-7 or 13-3, I have no idea.

Fascists: beat Okies today

Iowa St     at #8 Kansas   Texas   at Nebraska   Texas Tech   at Oklahoma   at #16 Oklahoma St   Baylor     at Texas   Missouri

They are playing the most consistent basketball out there, have one of the best home court advantages (due to insane marine reject student body) and only have one left against tech and okie St.

estimated record: 12-4

So let's say the conference ends up something like this playing a little fast and loose:

1. ku 13-3
2. A&M 12-4
3. Okie St. 11-5

Then the battle for 4 and 5
Texas at 11-5
T-Tech 9-7
and us with the possibility of Oklahoma turning it around (remaining road games: Baylor, Iowa St., Mizzou, and us)

So where do we fit in?
We're at 4-2 now with this left:
Missouri   at Texas     at #8 Kansas   Colorado   at Nebraska   Iowa St     #8 Kansas   at Colorado   at #16 Oklahoma St   Oklahoma

Scenarios
Winning all the "easy games" gets us to 9-7 and lots of work left to do in the tourney (probably 6 or 7 seed)
Winning all easy's plus Oklahoma gets us 10-6 and probably to top 5
Winning all the remaining home games gets us to 11-5 (22 wins plus a signature win) and a near guarantee of March Madness with one win in the Big XII tourney.

Thoughts?  The next three games will be fascinating. 

[Kat Kid]

I need to learn how to format these better.  Anyone can feel free to try and do that for me.

[mjrod]

Other than the fact you need to separate the politics away from the analysis, it looks good.

[Kat Kid]

I just hate A&M really.

What do you think rod.  Scenario 1, 2 or 3?

[mjrod]

We won't lose anymore home games, Nebraska, Colorado, Texas and possibly Okie State we'll get.  The key will be to see how far these kids will take their winning streak, and how seriously they believe they can make a run.

These kids are starting to believe in themselves.  Even though today's game was .. interesting, Nebraska played Texas close and I think the reason is that Nebraska is overachieving.   Right now, I think our kids haven't peaked.   I think they know that.  They are gaining confidence as a team, and are starting to look like a Huggin's team.

I see us Top 3 before the end of the season.  I know, it's bold.. maybe daring, and certainly insane.. but after watching the replays.. I see this team raising eyebrows.   An NCAA tournament bid will happen.. and not a 16 seed either.

[michigancat]

I'm just afraid of what happens when our defense isn't there.  We could lose any game on our schedule if we play Xavier-esque defense.

[mjrod]

As you know, the key to winning games is defense.  If we shoot poorly, then we have to make those other poor bastards shoot poorly.  They seem to be doing that until they can find offensive rhythm.  The other problem is we're still not getting back into defense fast enough in the transition, but we're better than we were at the beginning.

I see improvement in all areas, more consistency in the defense than the offense, but it's happening.

[AzCat]

I'm just afraid of what happens when our defense isn't there. 

Won't happen.  Early this season we were getting hammered because no one knew what to do, everyone was standing around, we had a bad habit of running into each other, and there was no help at all.  The overwhelming majority of that has been cured so defense is mainly a question of effort from here on out and effort is a variable that the team can control.

[WILDCAT NATION]

I'd call it a nice analysis...

Gotta win vs. MU, then think about the next one...This game in Austin is potentially HUGE since KSU already blew two opportunities vs. Tech and A&M...

I see at least one of the south teams taking a dive...should be interesting to see who it is...but it will happen simply because they all play each other 2 times.

I'm gonna scream if we blow any of the "should wins".

[fatty fat fat]

The talent isn't there for this team to beat the big boys imo. Be happy with 9-7. Huggs is doing amazing things with the hand he's been dealt.

[ksu_FAN]

At this point I think your middle option is most likely.  I think this is probably a 10-6 team that will be firmly on the bubble come selection sunday, but a lack of big wins may cost us. 

I think ku, aTm, and possible OSU are in the process of separating themselves right now.  Of those, OSU is most tenuous b/c of their roster issues, but they have one of the better home courts in the league and their RPI is already way up there. 

Tech, UT, and us seem to be in position to battle for 2 likely NCAA spots.  Tech is tenuous b/c they aren't overly talented outside Jackson and Zeno and have proven to be average on the road besides their trip to Manhattan.    More road losses are likely in store for them, but their 2 marquee wins over the top 2 teams in the league and a solid RPI will help.  UT's RPI is about the same as ours and they play in the tougher south.  That with their youth may catch up with them.  The game we have with them in Austin could be huge.  Then you've got us; our defense will keep in us in every game, but out offensive production could cost us at sometime and we already have a home loss in the league.  I don't see anyone not currently in this group having much of a shot (maybe OU), which means we have to be sure to beat those teams. 

[ds43fan]

We will be 10-6 or 11-5 period

[AzCat]

Huggins said he'd be happy with 25-6.

[Kat Kid]

I think we get to 10-6 and get top 4 because of the South beating itself up.  Oklahoma is going to beat some people at home and I think Texas takes a dive.  Okie St. will lose some they shouldn't because of foul trouble away from GIA and A&M and ku compete for the crown.  It is really nice to have Mizzou/Nebraska/Iowa St./CU to compete with in the North.

[Dan Rydell]

I think we get to 10-6 and get top 4 because of the South beating itself up.  Oklahoma is going to beat some people at home and I think Texas takes a dive.  Okie St. will lose some they shouldn't because of foul trouble away from GIA and A&M and ku compete for the crown.  It is really nice to have Mizzou/Nebraska/Iowa St./CU to compete with in the North.

This doesn't help us as much as it appears, unless the nortards help us out or we beat OSU or Texas.  Teams like Tech and aTm which have beaten us have a good shot at going 5-1 against the North.  If they win just their home games in the south, that puts them at 10-6 or 11-5.  Now that Baylor is sucking, that gives some of those teams an opportunity to pick up an extra road win in the south, as well. 

Thus, even if the South teams "beat up" on each other a bit, that still leaves OSU, Texas, Tech, and aTm with good shots at finishing 10-6.  Tech and aTm would already finish ahead of us thanks to beating us.   Thus, we need to win our games against the NorTards and then beat OSU or Texas or both to have a better shot at finishing better than 6th.

[fatty fat fat]

Agreed with slimz here. We are also in dire need of wins worth a damn.



Look at records vs 1-50 teams. We look out of place.

[Kat Kid]

damn.

[Dan Rydell]

Look at records vs 1-50 teams. We look out of place.

Yeah, that is absolutely going to kill us come selection Sunday if we don't get a win or two against ku, Texas, or OSU.  Losing Walker may keep us out of the tourney alright...because it threw us a bit out of sorts for two of the most important games of the season, both within 3 days, before we had a chance to adjust.  It looks like we'd have been better off if we'd played and lost to a Nebraska or Iowa State on that Big Monday, rather than having to go up against Tech before we readjusted.

The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that we don't get in without 20 overall wins, 10 conference wins (per those stats fff threw up a week or two ago about teams that missed the tourney), and at least one win against a good team.  Heck, even that might not be enough.  If WSU put together a late surge and got on the bubble with us, I think they'd probably be taken first, just because of their "name" wins against Syracuse and LSU.

[michigancat]

Look at last year's RPI:



I think we should get in w/10-6.


(Also confirms my suspicion that aTm didn't do crap last season but have a pathetic OOC and beat the crappy B12 teams.)

[snart]

We have three problems at this point: 1) we lost to Texas Tech on our own court and they will be the most likely competition for a NCAA Tourney bid, and 2) we have no wins against good teams, and 3) our RPI stinks and isn’t likely to get much better.  Unless we can beat one of the conference biggies I think we will have to win at least two games in the conference tourney to get a look from the NCAA.  There is still a lot of basketball to play, but it is getting to the point where it will be tough to get to where we want to go...

[ksu_FAN]

I'm looking at it this way; at this point OSU or even Tech probably gets in with a 9-7 record over 10-6 KSU.  We've got to win at least one over OSU, UT, or ku (two games).   I think its a forgone conclusion that the rest are pretty much "must wins" if we want to dance.  If we can afford any loss in a game we "should win" it might be at NU.  We can't lose any game at home outside of the ku game.

[coitus]

22 wins + bob huggins = ncaa bid

[WILDCAT NATION]

I'm looking at it this way; at this point OSU or even Tech probably gets in with a 9-7 record over 10-6 KSU.  We've got to win at least one over OSU, UT, or ku (two games).   I think its a forgone conclusion that the rest are pretty much "must wins" if we want to dance.  If we can afford any loss in a game we "should win" it might be at NU.  We can't lose any game at home outside of the ku game.

Yep...and Rusty, you and I are on the same page as far as A&M goes..

Look at what they've "done" this season...I'm still not a believer.

[ksu_FAN]

I'm looking at it this way; at this point OSU or even Tech probably gets in with a 9-7 record over 10-6 KSU.  We've got to win at least one over OSU, UT, or ku (two games).   I think its a forgone conclusion that the rest are pretty much "must wins" if we want to dance.  If we can afford any loss in a game we "should win" it might be at NU.  We can't lose any game at home outside of the ku game.

Yep...and Rusty, you and I are on the same page as far as A&M goes..

Look at what they've "done" this season...I'm still not a believer.

Depends what "believer" means.  NCAA lock?  No way.  Heck of a lot better and likley bubble team?  Yes.  Frankly, considering the loss of Walker, you've got to take that this year.  If we can sneak in, that would be gravy.  Now we're looking at minimum a home game or two in the NIT and likely a nice little run to set us up for next year.  I'll take any postseason K-State basketball I can get, though the NCAA has to be what we strive for, I just think the deck is somewhat stacked against that right now.  We'll see if we can get it done though b/c it is still very possible.

[mavrick1821]

Some things we need to consider:

1) KSU has shown consistant improvement against better competition every game since Baylor (with flashes of a legit team earlier in the season, but the Walker situation makes that hard to distinguish)
2) We may be one of the best road teams in the Big 12.  We built that in the Non-Con schedule and backed it up at ISU and NU.  A&M almost bit the dust.  Remember, we took down ISU after they nearly upset ku, UT, MU just took apart Tech at home (albeit, TT was short handed-most argue that team totally rides on Jackson and Zeno-they both played  )
3) We match up very well with UT, OSU, OU and a win is not near as much a long shot over these as many on this board want to think.  We can go to either UT or OSU and win.
4) One thing is for sure....we need to take care of biz against the "must wins" like MU on Wed.  If we take care of the musts, our odds of the signature win should be much better than the current "long shot" consensus.

[michigancat]

I'm just afraid of what happens when our defense isn't there.  We could lose any game on our schedule if we play Xavier-esque defense.

MU is shoting 60% right now.

60%

[sys]

our defense was horrible until the last 5 minutes.  fortunately mu kinda sucks.  and martin and hoskins were both good offensively for once.

[michigancat]

I had a mini in-game meltdown up there.

[sys]

I had a mini in-game meltdown up there.

yóú shóúld hávé béén ín chát íf yóó wérén´t góíng tó bé át thé gámé.

[Kat Kid]

10-6 looking very do-able.