Heading into next season..

[Kat Kid]

Returning Starters:

Offense:
WR   
83 Daniel Gonzalez   Jr.-RS   
27 Jordy Nelson            Jr.-1L   
88 Cedric Wilson   So.-Jr.*

RB   
14 Leon Patton   Fr.-HS   
8 James Johnson   Jr.-JC*
 
TE   
85 Jeron Mastrud   Fr.-HS
89 Rashaad Norwood   Jr.-JC   

 LG   69 Caleb Handy   So.-1L   
C   79 Jordan Bedore   So.-1L   
RG   65 Logan Robinson   Jr.-SQ

QB
 QB   1 Josh Freeman   Fr.-HS

9 of 11.  *Started this year.  Return additional depth @ O-line.

Defense:

LE   98 Ian Campbell   So.-1L   

DT   50 Alphonso Moran   So.-1L   

RE   95 Rob Jackson   Jr.-JC   

SLB   53 Reggie Walker   So.-1L   

CB   
13 Joshua Moore   Fr.-HS   
22 Justin McKinney   Jr..-1L
6 Byron Garvin           Jr.-2L*

FS   
18 Andrew Erker   So.-SQ
 2  Watts, Marcus      Jr.*

7.5/11  The D-line loses Q-Echols, but the rotation scheme means this hurts much less than it should given his talent.  The secondary has been a hodge-podge.  The BIG loss is, of course, Mr. Archer.  How the Linebacking corps responds with two new starters in there with the squad leader missing will be key.  Will Marcus Watts be 100% next year?  If so, he could take the leadership role over.  As everyone knows the LBers are key, if we can tough out those losses, the rest sets up nicely.

ST
we lose Snodgrass and our Long Snapper.

This is another BIG issue.  Kicking has been a HUGE asset to this team.  Don't forget, it won us the Texas game.  In 2002 FG kicking lost us the Texas game, we need to minimize the downgrade here.  The last thing we want to do is sit through 2001 again.  In Tibesar we trust.

[ds43fan]

look for Josh Chery to make or brake us

[cireksu]

Stringer will take one of the tackle spots, I think Frieson is only starting because of an injury.

[Kat Kid]

Sep. 1 -- at Fresno State (4-7)----Return QB, 1300 yrd rusher, Top reciever
Sep. 8 -- SAN JOSE STATE (7-4)----Return QB/RB lose top two recievers,
Sep. 29 -- at Texas (9-3)--- Return McCoy, Sweed, Charles, lose DEs, good Griffin, both cbs, keep lbs
Oct. 6 -- KANSAS (6-6)----- return Meier, Reasing (snicker) lose Murph and Cornish two O-line, return most of Defense
Oct. 13 -- COLORADO (2-10)----return Bernard jackson and cody hawkins <----(teehee!), Hugh Charles, both leading recievers
Oct. 20 -- at Oklahoma State (6-6)-----return Bobby Reid, both RBs (combined 1200 yards), lose last Woods brother on Offense, Donovan back @ safety (Zac Wegner?)
Oct. 27 -- BAYLOR  (4-8)------all offensive skill pos. gone.
Nov. 3 -- at Iowa State  (4-8)----return Bret Meyer, lose Hicks, Flynn and Jon Davis
Nov. 10 -- at Nebraska  (9-3)----
Nov. 17 -- MISSOURI

[Saulbadguy]

Sweed will go pro.  I think.

Are we sure we are playing @Fresno State?

[Fausto]

"Sep. 1 -- at Fresno State (4-7)----Return QB, 1300 yrd rusher, Top reciever"

If Fresno is next year, that's good.  They were down this year, and Wright should not be back.

[ksu_FAN]

We played quite a few people at LB.  Houlick, Perry, and A Moore played quite a bit, just to name a few. 

That sunshine said, we lose our top 3 tacklers, and 30% of our total tackles for the year.  We've got playmakers returning, but some new ones will need to step up in a major way to replace Archer, Diles, and Williams. 

We do return our 2 leaders in sacks and its nice to have 3 of our 4 starters and most of our secondary back.

[The Manhatter]

Katkid,

Gonzalez is not a starter.  I would not count him as such as he just filled in.

Stringer is definitely a returning starter.  He started 9 games and didn't play the last few games due to injury. 

Baldwin and Watts are returning starters on defense.  Both have 15 career starts in two years and would have many more if not for the injuries this year.

I would say our returning starters for next year are..

WR - Nelson
TE - Norwood
TE - Mastrud
LG - Handy (but I think somebody beats him out.  Perhaps Meyer?)
C - Bedore
RG - Robinson
RT - Stringer
QB - Freeman
RB - Patton or Johnson

DE - Campbell
DT - Moran
DE - Jackson
LB - Walker
CB - Baldwin
CB - McKinney
FS - Watts


A few notes on the schedule next year.

Nebraska loses entire starting DL although their best interior DL comes off the bench in Suh.  He's a beast.

ku loses 3 starting OL, not two.  Their LG, C, and RG (interior OL) has over 100 career starts.  They may have more talented player or players inserted into one or more of those positions but they will still have a lot of problems due to lack of experience and chemistry.

Texas loses both starting corners, FS, and DE's.  They might be worse in pass defense next year!!  They also lose over 100 career starts, like ku, in their interior OL as guards Blalock and studdard and center Sendlein are seniors.  Texas will be ultra talented but they will struggle runnning the ball even more next year and likely struggle just as much if not more in the pass defense.

Iowa State loses 4 starters on their OL.  Their offense will be suckage despite Meyer and Blythe returning.

When looking at what teams have returning the most important ingredient is line play on either side, not skill positions.


Nice list.  Thanks for putting that together.

[K-Lite Sucks]

Nebraska loses entire starting DL although their best interior DL comes off the bench in Suh.  He's a beast.

Yeah, Suh is a tank...and we have a couple of other young guys, like Barry Turner who will make an impact. The defense overall will be better next year, as the linebackers will be faster, Bowman will be back at CB, and Thenarse and Culbert will shore up the safety positions.

[Kat Kid]

Hatter-

Thanks for the corrections.  I was going off of the KSU depth chart, coupled with espn.com rosters and stats.

Kind of flintstonian, but I just wanted a general idea.

Texas seems like it will get worse on D, but they have a crap-load of talent.  I think they are two-years off from being a Nat'l Title contender, but they will still be 9/10 win team IMO.

Iowa St., ku, NU, Baylor all get worse I think.

Without really looking at much I would say that we should expect:

NORTH

Battle for NDC:  Missouri/Nebraska both schedules get easier and both should only have 2 losses max, with the game between them deciding the North (barring annual Pinkel melt-down)

1-2. Nebraska gets Okie State @ home, KSU home, Texas and Mizzou away.  I know they break in a new QB, but it is still awfully tough to win in Lincoln and I  think the schedule favors them with KSU still too far away to beat them at home and Mizzou still not showing an ability to finish a season off. 

1-3.Missouri gets NU home, both Texas schools @ home.  Their two tough away games are OU and KSU.  If they can finish strong and play to abilities should be easy 1-2.  Final game in Manhattan might drop them to 3. 

2-3.KSU  Including two more OOC teams that aren't Louisville I'll say 8-9 wins.  Cotton Bowl should be the goal, Big XII title Appearance on the overachieving side (if Nebraska metls down with Sam Keller and Mizzou Pinkels out), 7 wins and bowl game on low side.  Absolute disaster:  No bowl.  This is much more fun than '04/'05 pre-season talk.

Sep. 1 -- at Fresno State (4-7) W
Sep. 8 -- SAN JOSE STATE (7-4) W
Sep. 29 -- at Texas (9-3) L
Oct. 6 -- KANSAS (6-6) W
Oct. 13 -- COLORADO (2-10) W
Oct. 20 -- at Oklahoma State (6-6) L
Oct. 27 -- BAYLOR  (4-8)   W
Nov. 3 -- at Iowa State  (4-8)  W
Nov. 10 -- at Nebraska  (9-3)  L
Nov. 17 -- MISSOURI  (8-4)  Toss-up

4. ku team takes a big hit losing Cornish, schedule reverses meaning @KSU, @ CU, @A&M, @oSu with the only winnable games looking like Baylor and ISU @ home.

6. ISU/CU to fight for the bottom (CU might get a little better but they are one or two recruiting classes away from even competing)

[waks]

I think we should beat OSU.

[Kat Kid]

I think we should beat OSU.

We aren't a very good road team and their offense should be pretty farkin' good if this year was any indication.

[JR Ewing]

Kat Kid--I'm not sure that hoping for the demise of others is a recipie for success.  KSU just needs to worry about KSU and we'll be fine.  Besides, I find your projections EXTREMELY conservative.  I say it's a 50-50 proposition that we go to a BCS game and I'll all but guarantee that we'll be in the Holiday, Cotton, or Gator if we aren't in the BCS game.  Great coaches really seem to turn on the jets their second/third year (e.g. Stoops, Carroll, Tressel) and there is no good reason why Prince and the Kats shouldn't to just that.

[The Manhatter]

Katkid,  You are thinking QB and offense too much when thinking about Mizzou.  Look at what their defense loses.  Smith and Jackson at DE, both were at least 3 year starters.  Overstreet was a 3 year starter at safety.  Bacon's gone.  And they lose Harrington at LB who is a 4 year starter.  That is too much experience to lose on defense and they struggled this year as a defense.

Sure, the Tigers offense will be good but offense doesn't win games.


As for OSU and Texas.  This will sound crazy but I like our chances winning in Austin better than in Stillwater and it has everything to do w/ experience lost.  Having said that OSU does lose all 4 staters on their defensive line.


We can beat Nebraska in Lincoln.  They beat us this year because they were a more experienced team in Callahan's system and because their DL was very big, experienced, and physical and matched up beautifully w/ our young OL.  I'm looking forward to next year already.

[Kat Kid]

Kat Kid--I'm not sure that hoping for the demise of others is a recipie for success.  KSU just needs to worry about KSU and we'll be fine.  Besides, I find your projections EXTREMELY conservative.  I say it's a 50-50 proposition that we go to a BCS game and I'll all but guarantee that we'll be in the Holiday, Cotton, or Gator if we aren't in the BCS game.  Great coaches really seem to turn on the jets their second/third year (e.g. Stoops, Carroll, Tressel) and there is no good reason why Prince and the Kats shouldn't to just that.

I like your thinking.  But football isn't 100% about how good your team is. 

It has alot to do with your competition, and in regards to Big XII championships, your schedule and your opponent's schedules. 

Now look at the schedules below.  We have three of our easiest opponents based on record last year and including early (extremely rough) predictions for next year at home.  We take three of our toughest home games from this year (texas, Okie St., NU) and put them on the road.  Okie St. was no cake walk at home this year, and they showed what they could do in Stillwater against NU.  I would say it is a fair assumption at this point, that unless those three teams take a big nose dive, or we make a miraculous leap in our ability to play on the road (1-3 this year) then we lose them off the bat.  We then play Missouri at home.  They looked every bit of 20 points better than us this year, but down the stretch Pinkel has shown a constant pattern of losing games he should win.  My point about Sam Keller is this:  in 2003 it looked like we had no business winning in Lincoln, but their QB was Jamaal Lord that played a large role in our victory.  NU is tough to beat there, but if Sam Keller is a disaster we have a better shot.

In my opinion to go into the season looking at the top three finishers in the Big XII North from this year and their schedules for next year, it would be optimistic to put us ahead of both of them and us into a BCS bowl.

Our conference schedule:
at Texas (9-3)
KANSAS (6-6)
COLORADO (2-10)
at Oklahoma State (6-6)
BAYLOR  (4-8) 
at Iowa State  (4-8) 
at Nebraska  (9-3)
MISSOURI  (8-4)

NU's
at Kansas   
Iowa St   
Kansas St   
at #5 Texas   
Oklahoma St   
at Missouri   
#24 Texas A&M   
at Colorado

MU's
at Colorado   
Texas Tech   
Texas A&M   
at Kansas St   
at Oklahoma   
Nebraska   
Iowa St   
at Kansas

[WildCatzPhreak]

Damnit..We play Texas the week before ku again?  Can't we swap those two out or something?

[pissclams]

CU's got a ton of incoming talent in next year's recruiting class, I expect them to make a lot of progress between this and next year's teams.  Picking them last in the North is a mistake imo.

[fatty fat fat]

we need to improve a bunch on defense (talent) if we plan to stop mizzou next year.

[waks]

Hatter, what are your total predictions for next year?? As I recall, you were the closest (up until the Texas game) as far as predictions go this year...

[The Manhatter]

waks, part of it's luck but when forecasting people should ignore things like QB, RB, etc. and look more at the lines and returning experience on defense.  That and the schedule, particularly for North teams based on who and where from the South on their schedule.

I will say that back in June or July I picked the North fairly accurate as I had 1) Nebraska 2) KSU 3) Mizzou 4) CU 5) ISU and 6) ku.  Fatty can vouge for this as I reminded him yesterday w/ a link.

But I arrived at that just from a few simple observations...everybody loved ISU going into this year but I HATED their team for this year.  Why?  Lost WAY too many starters and experience on defense.  If you looked at ISU's rise from '03 to '05 it had to do w/ their defense and their rush defense in particular.  Their offense, despite the way they ripped up KSU, was not as good statistically as people assumed.  I didn't like CU because of their losses at both OT positions, TE, no vertical speed at receiver, lost a 3 year starter at QB.  ku was obvious...freshman QB and lost way too much on defense.

I would have to look at who everybody loses going into next year, where they play, and what those teams have coming back.  Based on the strength in the South their schedule will have a hand in how the North finishes.

Having said all of that I can say w/ certainty that OU not only wins the Big 12 next year but goes undefeated and plays for the title and I could give a Fudge who starts at QB for OU or whether Peterson comes back.  The Sooners are building a MONSTER offensive line w/ great talent, size, and depth.  They are very young up front this year and still one of the better running teams in the conference.  Next year it will look ugly watching any defense in this conference try to stop them.

I would make Nebraska the early favorites for the North.  Their offense won't miss a beat.  They lose two OL but Mann has not played much at all this year and Austin can be replaced easily by Andy Christenson who is better.  They are so deep at RB and building a very good receiving corps.  Keller was dynamite at ASU in '04 when they had a running game and he ws filing in for Walter.  Their back 7 should be just about as good as anyone in college football...and I mean that.  They won't be as tough on the DL but like I said earlier..Suh is a beast.

KSU will be very good next year.  We have a lot returning on both lines and in a lot of other positions.  Need to land a few more playmakers at wide receiver and a DT but we should be the clear favorite for 2nd in the North.

I like Mizzou where they are now...around .500 but no better.  Mizzou's problem is that when they face a quality defense w/ quality talent their passing game will struggle more in the redzone and they don't have the running game to put up the type of points they need...they are like Texas Tech in that regard.  And their defense won't stop anybody.  I do like some of their players on defense but then again I liked some of the defensive players returning on ku's defense this year too.

Iowa State should be suckage.  They lose 4 starters on OL, Zehr and Brant were 4 year starters.  And they lose Brent Curvey on defense...that is a HUGE loss for the clones.

I don't like Colorado next year.  They lose the top two players at center, Fenton and McMartin, and Daniels.  Daniels and Fenton were 4 year starters.  They still don't have vertical weapons at receiver...their TE's are not what they once were and they will go from a zone-option-read @ QB offense to multiple/pro-set.  They lose some studs on defense too that were vital in their defense being as good as it was...Barnett did not leave screaming Dan w/ a good situation at CU.

I do like ku's defense next year...they will be stubborn defensively.  They do lose some key guys on their DL but I think they will do a pretty fair job replacing Como, Wilder, and Allen.  Their LB's will be solid though not quite as good as the previous trio of '05.  But ku's offense won't be as good as this year's version and this year's version stalled if it was forced to pass in critical situations.  ku's mojo was their running game but they won't run the ball next year anything like this year.  And Meier or Reesing can't win games on their own like Freeman is capable of doing.

That is a raw assessment...things can change based on some key additions in recruiting but I doubt ku or ISU can make the necessary additions.  The North is headed back to a NU-KSU-CU dominant trio like it was in the mid-late 90's IMO.

[JR Ewing]

Kat,

If you are going to argue that we might struggle next year because of a tougher schedule, then do you also not have to argue that part of the reason we have had a nice year this year (sans the ku game) is because we have had an easier schedule?  I'm not sure that is an case I'm ready to make because it looks as if we are reaching to external factors to explain (potential) failure but looking at internal factors to explain success.  It is my opinion that the internal factors (our coaching, our talent, our motivation) tend to have the greatest explanatory power.  This is what I mean when I say KSU needs to worry about KSU.  Specifically this year, I think the mad scientist offensive genius Ron Prince, the--do I dare say it?--future Heisman candidate Josh Freeman, and our DC, who is one of the best motivators since George Patton, explain why we have been playing so well, especially lately.  I know it's cliched but when Prince's "Bold and Daring" plays wouldn't work out we didn't have a QB that could pick us up later in the game.  We have that now and it's only going to improve.

[Kat Kid]

Kat,

If you are going to argue that we might struggle next year because of a tougher schedule, then do you also not have to argue that part of the reason we have had a nice year this year (sans the ku game) is because we have had an easier schedule?  I'm not sure that is an case I'm ready to make because it looks as if we are reaching to external factors to explain (potential) failure but looking at internal factors to explain success.  It is my opinion that the internal factors (our coaching, our talent, our motivation) tend to have the greatest explanatory power.  This is what I mean when I say KSU needs to worry about KSU.  Specifically this year, I think the mad scientist offensive genius Ron Prince, the--do I dare say it?--future Heisman candidate Josh Freeman, and our DC, who is one of the best motivators since George Patton, explain why we have been playing so well, especially lately.  I know it's cliched but when Prince's "Bold and Daring" plays wouldn't work out we didn't have a QB that could pick us up later in the game.  We have that now and it's only going to improve.

I'll give Prince all the credit in the world but look what he did on the road this year.  There is no way he beats Texas on the road this year and without the Texas win we are ku right now.  Just be aware of how fragile this season was, nothing was ever a sure thing.  Going on the road and expecting to win easily is just not something I'm willing to do.

Our schedule would've looked MUCH different this year as:

COLORADO-----project Win
BAYLOR--------project Win
@ oSu------project loss
@ISU--------toss-up?
MISSOURI--------loss
@Texas------project loss
KANSAS-------project win
@ Nebraska-------loss

I'm not going to say one is harder and one is easier for us, but it is different.  If we lose the Texas game do we get up for ku more @ home?  Can we beat ISU on the road (Mizzou couldn't)?  Is Baylor a for sure win at home first game of the conference season?

I'm saying that schedule is huge.  It isn't the only thing, but it matters....alot.  I just don't really understand what your argument is.  That I should praise Prince more?  That I should be concentrating on the bowl game? 

[coitus]

i'm confident in antwon moore stepping it up at linebacker.

i'm not confident in anyone stepping it up at dt.  i'm guessing it will have to be someone we didn't see this year, ala kendall, crews or a new guy.  echols was far and away our top interior dl.

i'm confident in ol guys stepping it up.  many have experience, and the entire unit kept getting better.  they need time.

i'm not confident in gonzalez or cedric wilson playing to the level of moreira or figurs.

[FBWillie]

what about MLB?  Diles and Mack will both be gone. Move perry over? 

[coitus]

roland had moments, but was horribly inconsistent.  i think he has the tools, we'll see if he makes the adjustment.

that's another area prime for a stud jc.

[Manatee]

waks, part of it's luck but when forecasting people should ignore things like QB, RB, etc. and look more at the lines and returning experience on defense.  That and the schedule, particularly for North teams based on who and where from the South on their schedule.

I will say that back in June or July I picked the North fairly accurate as I had 1) Nebraska 2) KSU 3) Mizzou 4) CU 5) ISU and 6) ku.  Fatty can vouge for this as I reminded him yesterday w/ a link.

But I arrived at that just from a few simple observations...everybody loved ISU going into this year but I HATED their team for this year.  Why?  Lost WAY too many starters and experience on defense.  If you looked at ISU's rise from '03 to '05 it had to do w/ their defense and their rush defense in particular.  Their offense, despite the way they ripped up KSU, was not as good statistically as people assumed.  I didn't like CU because of their losses at both OT positions, TE, no vertical speed at receiver, lost a 3 year starter at QB.  ku was obvious...freshman QB and lost way too much on defense.

I would have to look at who everybody loses going into next year, where they play, and what those teams have coming back.  Based on the strength in the South their schedule will have a hand in how the North finishes.

Having said all of that I can say w/ certainty that OU not only wins the Big 12 next year but goes undefeated and plays for the title and I could give a Fudge who starts at QB for OU or whether Peterson comes back.  The Sooners are building a MONSTER offensive line w/ great talent, size, and depth.  They are very young up front this year and still one of the better running teams in the conference.  Next year it will look ugly watching any defense in this conference try to stop them.

I would make Nebraska the early favorites for the North.  Their offense won't miss a beat.  They lose two OL but Mann has not played much at all this year and Austin can be replaced easily by Andy Christenson who is better.  They are so deep at RB and building a very good receiving corps.  Keller was dynamite at ASU in '04 when they had a running game and he ws filing in for Walter.  Their back 7 should be just about as good as anyone in college football...and I mean that.  They won't be as tough on the DL but like I said earlier..Suh is a beast.

KSU will be very good next year.  We have a lot returning on both lines and in a lot of other positions.  Need to land a few more playmakers at wide receiver and a DT but we should be the clear favorite for 2nd in the North.

I like Mizzou where they are now...around .500 but no better.  Mizzou's problem is that when they face a quality defense w/ quality talent their passing game will struggle more in the redzone and they don't have the running game to put up the type of points they need...they are like Texas Tech in that regard.  And their defense won't stop anybody.  I do like some of their players on defense but then again I liked some of the defensive players returning on ku's defense this year too.

Iowa State should be suckage.  They lose 4 starters on OL, Zehr and Brant were 4 year starters.  And they lose Brent Curvey on defense...that is a HUGE loss for the clones.

I don't like Colorado next year.  They lose the top two players at center, Fenton and McMartin, and Daniels.  Daniels and Fenton were 4 year starters.  They still don't have vertical weapons at receiver...their TE's are not what they once were and they will go from a zone-option-read @ QB offense to multiple/pro-set.  They lose some studs on defense too that were vital in their defense being as good as it was...Barnett did not leave screaming Dan w/ a good situation at CU.

I do like ku's defense next year...they will be stubborn defensively.  They do lose some key guys on their DL but I think they will do a pretty fair job replacing Como, Wilder, and Allen.  Their LB's will be solid though not quite as good as the previous trio of '05.  But ku's offense won't be as good as this year's version and this year's version stalled if it was forced to pass in critical situations.  ku's mojo was their running game but they won't run the ball next year anything like this year.  And Meier or Reesing can't win games on their own like Freeman is capable of doing.

That is a raw assessment...things can change based on some key additions in recruiting but I doubt ku or ISU can make the necessary additions.  The North is headed back to a NU-KSU-CU dominant trio like it was in the mid-late 90's IMO.

Hatter,
Excellent breakdown of the Big XII next year.  I actually think offensively they will be better next year than this year.  Especially the o-line.  You rightfully pointed out the issues on the defensive side of the ball.  It will be interesting to see how KSU does in year two of the Prince era.  I am not sold on this years recruiting class you all have coming in.  As long as MU and ku has their current head coaches, they will not challenge for the Big XII north.  ISU is a few years away, and they get  the killer Big XII south rotation after next season.

Nice to have some good talk rather than the KSU fans and NU fans attacking each other.  Of course, that is fun also.

[tmramrod91]

To me, KSU's success next season hinges directly on a few key positions.
LB-losing Archer and Diles is big, that is going to be the biggest question mark on D
DT-Moran was decent when healthy, another area of concern
WR-Jordy is back, Wilson has some tools, but is still an unknown, Gonzalez is a backup solid performer. Def need a JUCO playmaker to come in and step up.

Areas of least concern:
Secondary: Pretty much everyone back, sans Williams, hopefully Chandler or a returner can step right in
QB: duh...also seems as if Coffman will be a suitable backup
RB: We have a special player in Patton, JJ is also a very good player
DE: studs
OL: wouldnt say this is a sure thing, but if they improve as much next year as they did this year, this could be a solid unit, but its def not a given

[wildcat79]

I think I'm liking all of this optimism! Guess we might have to agree that Prince has made the right calls and put KSU in position to be a winner!

[FBWillie]

That's it... NC or bust.