I also see no way that the Big 12 gets 2 BCS teams. Our only shot at Holiday is if the Gator Bowl would pick a Big 12 team, and that seems unlikely right now. They pick #4 in the Big 12 pecking order and UT, OU, and NU will be gone* by that point so the only choice would be MU or us and I don't think they'd pick either over the Big East #2 which will be a ranked WVU, Rutgers, or Louisville. So our Holiday shot is very slim IMO.
The next best scenario is the Alamo, but I think we need both aTm and MU to lose for that to happen. I think its likely that aTm loses, but I don't see it with MU.
If the Holiday falls through, I could see us in the Sun Bowl or the Insight Bowl.
All of this also assumes a win in Lawrence, which I don't think will be as easy as some think.
*assumes UT winning over aTm.