I don't understand KenPom

[QuinnMac]

Why is Wisconsin @ 6 (15-4)
and
K-State is @ # 8 (16-2)

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

 

[mocat]

Why is Wisconsin @ 6 (15-4)
and
K-State is @ # 8 (16-2)

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

 

kenpom lists PROJECTED finishes and RPI rankings, not current ones

[Pett]

Their wins over Duke & Purdue probably put them ahead of us (gave both teams their first loss). But seriously, these clowns have been one upping us since the '08 NCAA tourney.

[Skycat]

Here you go.

[QuinnMac]

Here you go.

I am not reading all that crap.
3-4 sentences and I will gladly oblige.
Otherwise GTFOOMF, and explain how Wiscky is better than K-State.

[Skycat]

Here you go.

I am not reading all that crap.
3-4 sentences and I will gladly oblige.
Otherwise GTFOOMF, and explain how Wiscky is better than K-State.

mocat is right.  KenPom does predictive rankings, not results based rankings.  He computes offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, adjusts them based on schedule strength, and then cranks them through a formula.

His numbers indicate that Wisconsin would beat K-State on a neutral floor more often than not.

[QuinnMac]

Here you go.

I am not reading all that crap.
3-4 sentences and I will gladly oblige.
Otherwise GTFOOMF, and explain how Wiscky is better than K-State.

mocat is right.  KenPom does predictive rankings, not results based rankings.  He computes offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, adjusts them based on schedule strength, and then cranks them through a formula.

His numbers indicate that Wisconsin would beat K-State on a neutral floor more often than not.

Thanks for the explanation, srsly.

But I don't believe his calculations are correct, just imo.

Thanks again.

[michigancat]

Here you go.

I am not reading all that crap.
3-4 sentences and I will gladly oblige.
Otherwise GTFOOMF, and explain how Wiscky is better than K-State.

They are better than KSU on a points per possession basis when strength of schedule is considered.

They ARE based entirely on results.

[QuinnMac]

Here you go.

I am not reading all that crap.
3-4 sentences and I will gladly oblige.
Otherwise GTFOOMF, and explain how Wiscky is better than K-State.

They are better than KSU on a points per possession basis when strength of schedule is considered.

They ARE based entirely on results.

well, so you are saying KenPom kinda sucks then.

[Skycat]

Here you go.

I am not reading all that crap.
3-4 sentences and I will gladly oblige.
Otherwise GTFOOMF, and explain how Wiscky is better than K-State.

They are better than KSU on a points per possession basis when strength of schedule is considered.

They ARE based entirely on results.

meh, they aren't based on win-loss results, and I'm pretty sure you knew what I meant

[michigancat]

Here you go.

I am not reading all that crap.
3-4 sentences and I will gladly oblige.
Otherwise GTFOOMF, and explain how Wiscky is better than K-State.

They are better than KSU on a points per possession basis when strength of schedule is considered.

They ARE based entirely on results.

well, so you are saying KenPom kinda sucks then.

no.

[JTKSU]

What's the deal with it projecting us to lose 3 more games, yet ending up 24-6 (11-5)?

[michigancat]

What's the deal with it projecting us to lose 3 more games, yet ending up 24-6 (11-5)?

It's a sum of the percentages.

[JTKSU]

What's the deal with it projecting us to lose 3 more games, yet ending up 24-6 (11-5)?

It's a sum of the percentages.

The percentage of that making any sense is <1.

[Chingon]

the final record is based on total probabilities not indv ones.

[ednksu]

he uses result to predict rankings.  The idea is that as the season draws to a close with more and more statistical info his final predicted results will be the same as the real world final results. 

[Litterbox]

So, he's like a meterologist predicting a tornado?  There's what he predicts and then there's what happens. amirite?

[mcmwcat]

if i flip a lopsided coin that has 51% chance to land on heads i will predict it will land on heads. 

i then decide to flip the coin 100 times.  before the 1st flip i'm not going to predict that all 100 flips will result in a heads.  i will predict that 51 times out of 100 that coin will come up heads