From "YoureMyBoyBuhl"....
Thus far, in Big XII play, Kansas State has played:
Iowa State
Texas Tech
Texxas A&M
Colorado
Oklahoma
The Wildcats have compiled a 3-2 record over that schedule. This may seem like deja vu, but ku has played the following teams in Big XII play:
Iowa State
Colorado
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Look familiar? ku has compiled a 1-3 record over that schedule.
Considering that Kansas State has played every Big 12 team on ku's schedule thus far, I feel it would be accurate and justified to use Conference statistics as a basis for most of my comparisons.
When Kansas State has the ball
Kansas State is putting up 30 points per game in Conference play. This is slightly skewed by the game against Texas A&M, but there is no question that the current Wildcat offense is much better than the version of itself 6 weeks ago. The Wildcats don't try and mask what the are. What they are is a running team, and it shows as they are 2nd in Conference play averaging 171 yards per game on the ground. Conversely, ku's defense is towards the bottom of the Conference allowing near 150 yards per game. Going further, they have allowed a Conference worst 12 touchdowns on the ground in their four Conference games. To put it simply, everyone in the Conference knows that Kansas State is going to try and run the football. Thus far, nobody has been able to consistently stop them from doing so.
Throwing the football has been a bit of an inconsistency for the Wildcats. Kansas State ranks second to last in Conference play in passing, averaging about 172 yards per game (how's that for balance). Although something that may surprise most folks, the Wildcats behind Grant Gregory have completed 66% of their passes iin Conference play. ku comes into the game allowing nearly 245 yards per game through the air, although they have appeared to do a reasonable job of at least slowing the passing attacks of both Oklahoma and Texas Tech at times.
Some peripheral statistics regarding this matchup:
- Kansas State is 2nd in the Conference in time of possession at nearly 33 minutes per game
- Kansas State is towards the top of the Conference with only 6 turnovers lost in 5 games
- ku is near the bottom in forcing turnovers, with 8 in four games
- ku ranks dead last in Conference play in scoring defense allowing almost 37 points per game
In all, I feel really good about the matchup that Kansas State's offense has in this game, and think they should be able to string together some significant drives and keep the Wildcats ahead in the field position battle as well.
When ku has the ball
ku has struggled some recently offensively, only putting up three total offensive touchdowns in their last two games combined. That said, they still possess some potent offensive weapons, particularly in the passing game. ku is second in Conference play, putting up over 320 yards per game through the air. Kansas State is dead last in the Conference in passing defense, allowing over 300 yards per game through the air. While that number is skewed greatly by the 700 yards Texas Tech put up against the Wildcats (200 ypg against all other opponents), Kansas State has still had some difficulty at times against the pass. More specifically, tackling players after they make the catch.
ku could have a bit tougher go of things when they try to run the football. The Jayhawks are averaging just over 60 yards per game on the ground, and while one would think this is due to their emphasis on the pass, that is actually not the case. They have attempted nearly 30 carries per game, and are averaging a mere 2.2 yards per carry on those attempts. So, it isn't as if ku hasn't tried to run the football, they simply haven't been able to. While Kansas State hasn't been completely dominant against the run, they have been fairly steady at at least limiting opponent's gains on the ground. They rank right in the middle of the pack, allowing roughly 120 yards per game on the ground in Conference play.
Some peripheral statistics regarding this matchup:
- Kansas State is 3rd in Conference play with 13 takeaways
- ku has 10 giveaways in 4 games
- Kansas State ranks 3rd in Conference play, collecting 13 quarterback sacks in 5 games
- ku is 10th in Conference play, allowing 14 sacks in 4 games
- ku is 5th in Conference play in time of possession at just under 31 minutes per game
In all, Kansas State is going to need to make ku one dimensional. The ability of the defensive secondary to make open field tackles will be key. One statistic that kept popping out at me were the sacks, as the Wildcats are near the top of the Conference in Sacks By and the Jayhawks are near the bottom in Sacks Allowed. Ultimately, I expect ku to be able to move the ball at times in this game, but it will be Kansas State's ability to make big plays (sacks/turnovers) that will be the determining factor in how the Wildcat defense is viewed after this game.
X-Factors
Believe me, I'm digging as deep as I can to find some angles where ku has a marked advantage (as not to sound biased), but I'm having a hard time finding too many variables that favor the Jayhawks in this game. Bill Snyder has a career 3-1 record against Mark Mangino as a head coach, and has only lost 4 times to Kansas in his entire head coaching career. So you can bet his players know the importance of this game and will be supremely prepared to play in it.
Kansas State is 2-0 at home this season in Conference play, whereas ku is 0-2 in Conference road games. Kansas has lost 5 consecutive game against the spread, and 3 consecutive games straight up. On the other hand, Kansas State is 3-2 in their last 5, and 4-1 against the spread.
Special teams seem to always play a key role in big games like these. There appears to be no significant difference in each team's punting average, however Kansas is only 9th in the Conference in kickoff coverage. On the other end of the field, we all know how dangerous Brandon Banks is as a returner, and he has led the Wildcats to 1st place in the Conference in both return average (25) and touchdowns (2).
Wrap-up
In the end, I tried very hard to be as impartial as possible with this analysis. It is a very similar look that I give to many games I view as potential wagers. Unfortunately for Kansas, the road team, there isn't much that favors them in this game. Kansas State has the statistical edge in turnovers, time of possession, sacks, and special teams. Those are typically the areas that teams need to exploit when they try to win on the road in a hostile environment.
After the dust settles, I see ku's offense being able to have some statistical success against Kansas State. But I look for the Kansas State defense, that has had a recent history of big plays, to force some game changing turnovers and sacks. Offensively, I feel very confident in Kansas State's ability to implement diverse the gameplan that Coach Snyder wants to carry out, and I see several long and time consuming drives that end in points. Did I mention Kansas State is 6-6 kicking field goals thus far in Conference play?
Kansas State: 31
Kansas: 20
