winning the north

[Rick Daris]

guys,

i've been doing some thinking and i think that us, nebraska, mizzou and ku all have a shot at winning the north championshi.. for us to win it, it's pretty simple....we have to win games. how many? i'm not sure, but if we win out then we will win it. for ku to win it for sure they probably have to win most or maybe all of there games also. missouri might win it but they would need some teams to lose and would also need to win themselves. nebraska is in the mix too. if they can just win there games then they will win it. they could also lose a game and win the rest but it would depend on what other teams do and who they lose to and who other teams win against. i feel confident that we can stay in the mix by winning games and/or and this is the big part...having other teams not win there games. what does everyone else think. am i crazy?  i don't think so. i also think that colorado or iowa state could win it but it would also require them winning games and not really losing them so much. just some thoughts that i wanted to get out there so that we could discuss this stuff.

[EllToPay]

good thoughts. haven't seen that brought up yet. not sure what will happen, either. just need to win games, ya know?
 

[willie]

Glad you posted this, it needed to be said.  I was going to post it, but was intimidated.

You nailed it, winning is key here.

[Phenom Smith]

As I posted yesterday, anyone can still win the North.  Probabilities, using our WAG lines, show NU with the best shot, followed by KSU, MU, and ku.  You can adjust the lines as you see fit.

http://atomicteeth.barkingcarnival.com/2009/11/02/predict-a-north-4-games-to-go/

We are working on another one called Predict-a-North for Dummies for those who don't like to deal with probabilities and just want to run win/loss scenarios.  It will be very cool if we can get our spreadsheet host to cooperate.  Computers, man....

[Rick Daris]

As I posted yesterday, anyone can still win the North.  Probabilities, using our WAG lines, show NU with the best shot, followed by KSU, MU, and ku.  You can adjust the lines as you see fit.

http://atomicteeth.barkingcarnival.com/2009/11/02/predict-a-north-4-games-to-go/

We are working on another one called Predict-a-North for Dummies for those who don't like to deal with probabilities and just want to run win/loss scenarios.  It will be very cool if we can get our spreadsheet host to cooperate.  Computers, man....

i'm not sure you understand what i'm saying. i'm trying to say that there are a lot of teams that can still win and that there are a lot of different scenarios that can still happen. does that make sense? tell me if it doesn't and i'll try to explain it differently. basically there are a lot of teams and those teams are all going to play each other and who wins and who loses are not decided yet and we don't know who will win or lose but we do know that someone will eventually end up winning the north. which team will it be? nobody knows yet.

[WildcatNkilt]

So Rick if I understand you correctly, if we win more games than we lose throughout the rest of the season we will win the north?

Where it gets complicated is all these north teams want to win.  Not all of them can be winners, which mean some have to lose.  The thing is, we don't know which ones will be the ones to lose.  The ones that lose, will not be the North Champs.

I think I'm finally wrapping my head around this one.

So key for us is to win games.  If we don't win games, we aren't winners. We are losers.  Losers don't become Big 12 north Champions, and there can only be one champion....thus being only one true winner.

[Rick Daris]

So Rick if I understand you correctly, if we win more games than we lose throughout the rest of the season we will win the north?

Where it gets complicated is all these north teams want to win.  Not all of them can be winners, which mean some have to lose.  The thing is, we don't know which ones will be the ones to lose.  The ones that lose, will not be the North Champs.

I think I'm finally wrapping my head around this one.

So key for us is to win games.  If we don't win games, we aren't winners. We are losers.  Losers don't become Big 12 north Champions, and there can only be one champion....thus being only one true winner.

yes. you have part of it. i suppose that you could technically lose and still win if everybody loses too. the hard part about this is that there are two things to consider. winning AND losing. too many people forget about the losing and only want to think about winning. think of it this way.......let's say that i have a car and i want that car to have gas in it. one way i could do this would be to put gas in it before i drive the car. the other way i could do this would be to just not drive the car and walk instead. or ride a bik or have someone else drive their car. does it make more sense now?

[KSUTOMMY]

Rick Daris - "If we score more points, we win games, if we win more games than the rest of the teams in our division, we win the division."

John Madden - "If we score more points, we win games, if we win more games than the rest of the teams in our division, we win the division."

[mavrick1821]

Beating the Toucans will up our chances dramatically.

[Phenom Smith]

As I posted yesterday, anyone can still win the North.  Probabilities, using our WAG lines, show NU with the best shot, followed by KSU, MU, and ku.  You can adjust the lines as you see fit.

http://atomicteeth.barkingcarnival.com/2009/11/02/predict-a-north-4-games-to-go/

We are working on another one called Predict-a-North for Dummies for those who don't like to deal with probabilities and just want to run win/loss scenarios.  It will be very cool if we can get our spreadsheet host to cooperate.  Computers, man....

i'm not sure you understand what i'm saying. i'm trying to say that there are a lot of teams that can still win and that there are a lot of different scenarios that can still happen. does that make sense? tell me if it doesn't and i'll try to explain it differently. basically there are a lot of teams and those teams are all going to play each other and who wins and who loses are not decided yet and we don't know who will win or lose but we do know that someone will eventually end up winning the north. which team will it be? nobody knows yet.

There are over 16,000 permutations, so yeah, I get it. 

[Brock Landers]

Rick,

Trying not to hijack the thread or anything, but you mentioned 4, count 'em, FOUR teams in the running for the division title.  With that many good teams, does that mean the Big 12 North is the premier division in all of college football?  Thanks.

[Slanted Cat]

So Rick if I understand you correctly, if we win more games than we lose throughout the rest of the season we will win the north?

Where it gets complicated is all these north teams want to win.  Not all of them can be winners, which mean some have to lose.  The thing is, we don't know which ones will be the ones to lose.  The ones that lose, will not be the North Champs.

I think I'm finally wrapping my head around this one.

So key for us is to win games.  If we don't win games, we aren't winners. We are losers.  Losers don't become Big 12 north Champions, and there can only be one champion....thus being only one true winner.

yes. you have part of it. i suppose that you could technically lose and still win if everybody loses too. the hard part about this is that there are two things to consider. winning AND losing. too many people forget about the losing and only want to think about winning. think of it this way.......let's say that i have a car and i want that car to have gas in it. one way i could do this would be to put gas in it before i drive the car. the other way i could do this would be to just not drive the car and walk instead. or ride a bik or have someone else drive their car. does it make more sense now?

Ah, this clarifies things, I'm starting to get it......

[frankencat]

Let me ask you this, would having sex with a woman the night before one of these games help us win, thus getting us closer to this North thingy.  If so I'm a willing contributor

[Rick Daris]

As I posted yesterday, anyone can still win the North.  Probabilities, using our WAG lines, show NU with the best shot, followed by KSU, MU, and ku.  You can adjust the lines as you see fit.

http://atomicteeth.barkingcarnival.com/2009/11/02/predict-a-north-4-games-to-go/

We are working on another one called Predict-a-North for Dummies for those who don't like to deal with probabilities and just want to run win/loss scenarios.  It will be very cool if we can get our spreadsheet host to cooperate.  Computers, man....

i'm not sure you understand what i'm saying. i'm trying to say that there are a lot of teams that can still win and that there are a lot of different scenarios that can still happen. does that make sense? tell me if it doesn't and i'll try to explain it differently. basically there are a lot of teams and those teams are all going to play each other and who wins and who loses are not decided yet and we don't know who will win or lose but we do know that someone will eventually end up winning the north. which team will it be? nobody knows yet.

There are over 16,000 permutations, so yeah, I get it. 

yes. mutations. exactly. lots of different mutation scenarios. what would be great is if we could somehow take the guess work out of it. like build a robot computer that could accurately assess each teams chances of winning based on who they still have left to play and their chances of winning that game. i did some simple numbers on my own and came up with the following.




ksu-33%
nu-22%
ku-15%
isu-7%
cu-6%
mu-4%

these are odds of winning the north division as of right now with my calculations.

[Houcat]

I got the same result but I forgot to factor in Losing.  After factoring in losing I got this:

ksu-33%
nu-22%
k-15%
isu-7%
cu-6%
mu-4%

[FBWillie]

John Madden - "If we score more points, we win games, if we win more games than the rest of the teams in our division, we win the division."

Great point...   If we score more points, while the other teams don't... we're more likely to win games.   Since coach Schneider is such a micro-manager, I would tend to think that this is the "concept" that he will be trying to get the players to "buy into" for the remainder of the season.   And if WE can score more points than the other team, everything else will take care of itself; right?  



Wait... Does this effect who will be the Big VII north representatives?   Or just the individual games?   I think so... Atleast that's how it always plays out on playstation.   I'm going to go sim this season over and over and over and keep track of how many scores We get compared to the teams we play and see if a scenario works out to where we are the Big VII champions and report back how many scores we got compared to the other teams.   I'm willing to bet that it will hold true that the team that scores more points wins more games and the team that wins more games will be in the big VII north champs.  

I'll report back later.  

[FBWillie]

playstation confirms.  The team that scored more points than their opponent won each game, and the team that did that most often won the BigVII north.   This needs to be our plan!