Great Novembereleven post from Tigerboard

[Pete]

Reality will also have KSU in first place next week

...whether OU drills the Cats or not. Assuming KSU loses they'll be tied with ISU if the Clones can go to College Station and win or alone if ISU loses. But as Die-Hard so astutely points out, it's the two home games vs. ku and Mizzou which loom as the most important games and based on early Big 12 results, the low hanging fruit.
I'll be the first to admit KSU is FAR from a world beater, particularly on offense. But at this point ku, Mizzou and Nubb are far from world beaters themselves.

With all due respect H8er the reality doesn't look too good elsewhere in seach of the magic 5 wins (which would almost certainly win the North):

-Pinkel has only 1 five game conference winning streak in 9 years at Mizzou. Obviously that was in 2007 (6 games). But even with far superior teams to this year's model he's only managed one 4 game win streak (2008) and one 3 game win streak (2005).

-ku has a total of 7 Big 12 road wins in Mangino's entire 7 years as the head coach. With games at Texas, Texas Tech and KSU...getting one won't be easy and two nearly impossible. Defending home and Arrowhead alone only gets them to 3 wins and to do that they've got to solve NU's defense and beat their main rival.

-Nubb's defense is probably the best in the North and their offense anemic with a beat up backfield and QB who's the newest whipping post in Lincoln. But with 2 recent home losses, they're going to have to win it on the road (at Baylor, ku and CU)...and have OU and KSU coming to Lincoln. Can you find 4 wins in there? Sweep the road games and beat KSU? Seems rather unlikely to me.

-ISU needs 3 more wins to reach 5 and I don't see more than 1 or 2 tops in @ aTm, OSU, CU and @ Mizzou. They're backfield is even more beat up than Nubb's.

-CU needs 4 of the last 5 and with a trip to Stillwater looming that means rattling off wins at home vs. Mizzou, aTM and Nubb and going to Ames and winning. They're not consistent enough to manage any of that.

-KSU it would appear will come down to those two games in Manhattan vs. ku and Mizzou, currently a combined 1-5 in the Big 12. Add in Nubb at the end and it’s a combined 2-7. Still a tall task for KSU, but compared to the others as realistic (if not more) than any other scenario. The consistent chatter of "bad match-up" should be quelled some by the fact those ku and Mizzou games are at Manhattan, against an improving defense, with teams not named Texas Tech and vs. the best coach in the North who has an 8-1 career record vs. Pinkel and Mangino.

[sonofdaxjones]

Dax Anger Level Report:

Tigerboard- (on a scale of  5 )

Phog.net- (on a scale of 5  )  Dax Note:  Any Keitzman thread is a 5   effort

Huskerpedia- (on a scale of  5 )

[nosolutions]

This is the best scenario post i have read by far. It shows you that 5 wins in the north is an almost garauntee to win it, and 4 wins is looking real good if we beat nebraska.

[wildcat79]

No kidding around. Snyder has KSU in a position to win the North. Nobody, I say again, NOBODY gave us a chance this year of that. Not even the most loyal EMAW! Regardless of out come we are in the midst of some good stuff! What's so cool is that in the beginning the football team didn't believe it. I bet they do now.

[JTKSU]

Winning the north this year would be akin to ISU winning it a few years back.  But, I think any realistic, nonpowertard Cat fan would be very happy with that banner with this years squad.  A bowl trip would probably result in a trip to the ER for me as my EMAW boner would surely last longer than 4 hours.  Possibly the entire offseason depending on the actual recruiting class we end up with.

[cireksu]

the north is comically bad.

ku by far has the most weapons and mangino is screwing it up.

[nosolutions]

If we win the North and avoid a bowl game, i will be happy because 6 wins is way better than i expected. But at the same time, we will always be known as that team which is not what i want to hear

[chum1]

[doom]

They don't make the North trophy smaller if you sucked that year, guys.  It would seriously be a big &@#%ing deal. 

[novembereleven]

Awww shux Pete....

I gave the Mizzou fans a bit more to think about this evening as well when one of their posters said the next four games were against crap teams (toned down for the youngsters).  My fave is the first point in bold.  KSU is half way through their schedule and this just looks/sounds/is hilarious:

-That crappy KSU team has 3 more conference wins than Mizzou...and actually one more win than "front runners" ku, Mizzou and Nebraska combined! Oh and you play in Manhattan vs. a coach Pinkel has never beaten.

-Pinkel is 11-24 (32%) in Big 12 road games with just two (Tech 06 & ISU 04) coming against teams with winning records. By the way, neither of those teams was over .500 in conference the years you beat them at their place.

-Pinkel is 0-5 vs. Snyder...two of those losses vs. last place KSU teams.

-Mangino has won 4 of the last 6 vs. Mizzou

-The crappy CU team has 1 more conference win than Mizzou...and the game is in Boulder.

-That crappy ISU team you play prior to ku has 2 more wins that Mizzou and just beat NU in Lincoln...who beat Mizzou in Columbia.

-Mizzou is 0-5 in conference play since beating ISU last year.

-Mizzou's QB is gimpy, the running game has issues and the coaches are suspect.

[JTKSU]

Awww shux Pete....

I gave the Mizzou fans a bit more to think about this evening as well when one of their posters said the next four games were against crap teams (toned down for the youngsters).  My fave is the first point in bold.  KSU is half way through their schedule and this just looks/sounds/is hilarious:

-That crappy KSU team has 3 more conference wins than Mizzou...and actually one more win than "front runners" ku, Mizzou and Nebraska combined! Oh and you play in Manhattan vs. a coach Pinkel has never beaten.

-Pinkel is 11-24 (32%) in Big 12 road games with just two (Tech 06 & ISU 04) coming against teams with winning records. By the way, neither of those teams was over .500 in conference the years you beat them at their place.

-Pinkel is 0-5 vs. Snyder...two of those losses vs. last place KSU teams.

-Mangino has won 4 of the last 6 vs. Mizzou

-The crappy CU team has 1 more conference win than Mizzou...and the game is in Boulder.

-That crappy ISU team you play prior to ku has 2 more wins that Mizzou and just beat NU in Lincoln...who beat Mizzou in Columbia.

-Mizzou is 0-5 in conference play since beating ISU last year.

-Mizzou's QB is gimpy, the running game has issues and the coaches are suspect.

You keep up with that sugar talk and we might invite you to a menag e maw.    (BTW that phrase should be patented.)

[fatty fat fat]

those are great stats, but i'm seriously worried because i'm pretty sure grant gregory sucks.

[FHSU92]

those are great stats, but i'm seriously worried because i'm pretty sure grant gregory sucks.

 

I believe his pass eff is the best of the north starting QBs (are Gabby, Lee, and Reese still starters?)

[PaintedPurple]

Fatty, love the new avatar.

The scenario stuff is always interesting, but no matter how it works itself out, the important thing to me is that Snyder and the team have set us fans up for one hell of an exciting month of football.  It's almost as fun when the entire North sucks as when it's stacked and we're in the mix.

[steve dave]

http://www.ksufans.com/forums/index.php?topic=45383.0

 

[novembereleven]

Totally agree Painted Purple.  That's why I tried to go a bit beyond the scenario things for the idiots (Mizzou, ku and Nubb) who somehow still are delusional enough to think they're elite.  

It's easy to say "we should win out," but a lot harder to do it.  The numbers bear that out and the home field factor, while considered, is often considered much less than it should be.  

Unless the winner ends up with 4 wins (decided by tie-breakers) my theory is the Hawks are done.  A coach who has only won 7 road games in 7 years...with 3 of those vs. average/below average teams in '07 (KSU, OSU, aTm), simply is not going to fare well on the road vs. Texas, Texas Tech and KSU.  Particularly with zero defense.  

Same for Mizzou, though their path looks easier.  They've barely had a pulse thus far squeaking by a 3-5 Mac team.  So now they're supposed to go on the road and beat CU and KSU...and ku at Arrowhead?  Well their best teams in 3 decades managed to win 5 in a row, ONCE!  Got to factor in Pinkel sucks on the road, can easily be outcoached and factors like bad/homer calls (ISU a few years back that cost them a gimme win in Ames), Sr. day/Coach retirements (KSU 2005) and rivalries (ku last year).  All average to bad teams, all Mizzou losses to inferior talent and this year they suck.  It's just not easy, no matter how much their fans want to think it is.

But yeah, Coach Snyder and staff have done a great job of putting this team in a place to win the North.  It's surprising and inspiring...but maybe it shouldn't be with his history.  He takes less and gets more out of them.  Oh and speaking of history, he owns Mangino and Pinkel.  Particularly at home and even with inferior talent.  Should be fun and should only get better in years to come.

[michigancat]

Totally agree Painted Purple.  That's why I tried to go a bit beyond the scenario things for the idiots (Mizzou, ku and Nubb) who somehow still are delusional enough to think they're elite. 

It's easy to say "we should win out," but a lot harder to do it.  The numbers bear that out and the home field factor, while considered, is often considered much less than it should be. 

Unless the winner ends up with 4 wins (decided by tie-breakers) my theory is the Hawks are done.  A coach who has only won 7 road games in 7 years...with 3 of those vs. average/below average teams in '07 (KSU, OSU, aTm), simply is not going to fare well on the road vs. Texas, Texas Tech and KSU.  Particularly with zero defense. 

Same for Mizzou, though their path looks easier.  They've barely had a pulse thus far squeaking by a 3-5 Mac team.  So now they're supposed to go on the road and beat CU and KSU...and ku at Arrowhead?  Well their best teams in 3 decades managed to win 5 in a row, ONCE!  Got to factor in Pinkel sucks on the road, can easily be outcoached and factors like bad/homer calls (ISU a few years back that cost them a gimme win in Ames), Sr. day/Coach retirements (KSU 2005) and rivalries (ku last year).  All average to bad teams, all Mizzou losses to inferior talent and this year they suck.  It's just not easy, no matter how much their fans want to think it is.

But yeah, Coach Snyder and staff have done a great job of putting this team in a place to win the North.  It's surprising and inspiring...but maybe it shouldn't be with his history.  He takes less and gets more out of them.  Oh and speaking of history, he owns Mangino and Pinkel.  Particularly at home and even with inferior talent.  Should be fun and should only get better in years to come.

I'm all for MU sucking and all, but I'm pretty sure KSU would be 0-3 if they played NU, UT, and @OSU.

And seriously, this team is "inspiring"? 

[sonofdaxjones]

LOL at cRusty being all 

Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.

How hard is this??

[Pete]

LOL at cRusty being all 

Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.

How hard is this??

I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already.  If they win another game I'll be more than content.   If they win the North I may need a tattoo.

All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.

[sonofdaxjones]

LOL at cRusty being all 

Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.

How hard is this??

I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already.  If they win another game I'll be more than content.   If they win the North I may need a tattoo.

All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.

The only game I see K-State really having a chance to win going forward is the mu game if they keep heading to the tank.   Plus, if K-State finishes 5-7 . . . that's what I predicted.

If ku doesn't win the North, than Mangino should be fired.

[novembereleven]

Damn Michigan...did you take a wrong turn searching for EmoFans.com?  Tough day/life in the suburbs? 

It's called expectation (or in Mizzou's case delusion) vs. reality.  They barely got by a 3-5 Mac team, gave up 27 points in a quarter to a Nubb team that's scored just 32 points combined in their other 3 games vs. BCS teams and currently sit with Nevada as their signature win.  Not quite the bluster that began the season with gems like "Gabbert might just be better than Daniel" and "the pundits just don't know yet."

Things will likely get better, as their schedule softens a bit.  But with a hobbled QB (fans are calling for the walk-on Costello), no running game, questions in the passing game, only 2 home games in the final 5, a defense that has been scorched lately and good old Pinkel "coaching," it's unlikey it will get MUCH better.

As for my being inspired, hell yeah!   Nobody thought KSU would have even a pulse this year.  Right now the Cats have as good or better shot at winning the North as any team in the division.  They aren't impressive offensively, but that horrible defense of the past couple years is light years from where it was.  I'm very proud of the effort I've seen (lacking the past couple years) and the improvement.  I think it's on the right track no matter how the season finishes.

[michigancat]

LOL at cRusty being all  

Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.

How hard is this??

I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already.  If they win another game I'll be more than content.   If they win the North I may need a tattoo.

All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.

The only game I see K-State really having a chance to win going forward is the mu game if they keep heading to the tank.   Plus, if K-State finishes 5-7 . . . that's what I predicted.

I pretty much agree.  Do you honestly consider 5-7 or even 6-6 to really be "inspiring", though?  I'm just keeping the kneepads in the closet and saving my virtual BJ for Snyder for when he actually accomplishes something.  

How hard is this to understand?

[ksu_FAN]

I pretty much agree.  Do you honestly consider 5-7 or even 6-6 to really be "inspiring", though?  I'm just keeping the kneepads in the closet and saving my virtual BJ for Snyder for when he actually accomplishes something.  

How hard is this to understand?

Yes Rusty, its not hard to understand.  We all understand your point of view.  Its some bizarre mix of GP realism and extreme ksufans cynicism.

But its also easy to see how our fans are excited.  Sure, the schedule has contributed A LOT, but K-State hasn't sat 3-1 in the league in 9 years.  A month ago many/most fans thought we'd be lucky to win 1 conference game.  And the North favorites have all faltered more than expected; having essentually a 2 game lead over the rest of the north at our halfway point is completely unexpected.

However, if things go south like they could, many fans will turn.  Its the nature of the beast and the "inspiring" talk will end.  Its likely at the end of the year many will compare it to Prince's collapse in '07 after sitting at 3-2 in the league, depending on how we compete in our last 4 games.  I'd say for most to be relatively satisfied with this season Snyder has to win at least 1 more game and not get blown out by anyone not from Oklahoma.  Win 2 more and lock up the North, yeah you have to call that an "inspiring" season.

For now its about enjoying the ride and the unexpected Big 12 success so far, even if it is over ISU, aTm, and CU.

[cireksu]

If we lose to ku AND Mu at home AND Nubb, I will seriously question where the program is headed.


No excuse to go O'fer those games.

[pissclams]

I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already.  If they win another game I'll be more than content.   If they win the North I may need a tattoo.

All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.

save getting the powercat back tat for vegas

[ksu_FAN]

If we lose to ku AND Mu at home AND Nubb, I will seriously question where the program is headed.


No excuse to go O'fer those games.

I agree with this.  Snyder needs to beat at least one of those teams this year.  I'd say most likely is Missouri.  Prince's o-fer against these clowns was a big reason he got fired.

[chum1]

Excellent points.  The North is ours to lose.  We have, by far, the easiest path to the title.  If Snyder fails to win the North, he is a huge f*cking asshole. 

[sonofdaxjones]

LOL at cRusty being all  

Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.

How hard is this??

I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already.  If they win another game I'll be more than content.   If they win the North I may need a tattoo.

All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.

The only game I see K-State really having a chance to win going forward is the mu game if they keep heading to the tank.   Plus, if K-State finishes 5-7 . . . that's what I predicted.

I pretty much agree.  Do you honestly consider 5-7 or even 6-6 to really be "inspiring", though?  I'm just keeping the kneepads in the closet and saving my virtual BJ for Snyder for when he actually accomplishes something.  

How hard is this to understand?

Yes cRusty, the entire board is "inspired" and will be perfectly happy seeing K-State going 5-7/6-6 forever, as long as Bill Snyder is the coach.      

[Ghost of Stan Parrish]

If we lose to ku AND Mu at home AND Nubb, I will seriously question where the program is headed.

No excuse to go O'fer those games.

I guess I can think of one excuse/reason: we have less talent than any of those other teams. 

[catzacker]

I'm just waiting for the regression towards the mean, though we're half way through the conference so it's going to have to happen quickly if it ever does .  Like fats said, grant sucks (which is microcosm of the team as a whole sucking).  We're really not that good of a football team and even in that assertion I'm taking into consideration the rest of the not so good football teams in the North. The "inspired" stuff is great and all, but it's not about and never was about this season.  Who gives a crap about going to a bowl game this year if Coffman is our QB next year (I'm not considering Harper at QB)?  The only question about Bill Snyder is whether he has the assistants and the framework to recruit, not whether he could get Houlik into the right "fit".