Zack Greinke is having an unforgettable start to this season, improving to 6-0 with a 0.40 ERA after Monday's complete-game shutout of the White Sox. It's like he is playing a video game right now. If you were going to design a pitcher and put together a bunch of great assets into one body, Greinke wouldn't be a bad result.
Honestly, it's hard to analyze a guy who is pitching so perfectly. Against the White Sox, his first pitch was 97 mph and his last one was 95. He's got the velocity of a top closer and one of the better breaking balls around with an 84 mph, sharp curveball. He also has a very fluid motion, so his ball is sneaky fast. He's not a very big man (6-foot-2, 185 pounds) and there is really nothing about him when he stands on the mound or goes into his delivery that prepares hitters for what they are in for. Then, all of a sudden, they are seeing wicked stuff.
So how does he do it? It's not like he's making exceptional pitches as far as painting the corners or using pinpoint location like Greg Maddux did so well for so many years. The pitches start in the middle of the strike zone, and because of the velocity, movement or sharpness to his breaking ball, the hitter is committed, and suddenly it's too late. Greinke's getting a lot of check swings and swings and misses. In fact, he has 84 swinging strikes this season, which was the best in the majors through May 4. The Mets' Johan Santana was second with 82.
The opposing hitter is just not finding the ball, and when big league hitters are left flailing, that tells you how exceptional his stuff is right now. He reminds me a lot of Pedro Martinez without the changeup. In 1999, when Martinez went 23-4 with the Red Sox and was a unanimous selection for the AL Cy Young award, he didn't get off to the kind of start Greinke has this year. Pedro didn't win his sixth game until his seventh start, and when he did, he had an ERA of 1.74.
I realize it is very premature to talk about postseason awards, but consider the following, courtesy of ESPN Research: Until Greinke did it this season, there were only five pitchers in the divisional era (Cliff Lee in 2008, Randy Johnson in 2000, Pedro Martinez in 1997, Roger Clemens in 1991 and Fernando Valenzuela in 1981) to win their first six starts and have an ERA under 1.00. They all went on to win the Cy Young Award.
The Cy Young may not be the only award he wins, either. The MVP, which hasn't been won by a starter since Roger Clemens in 1986, could be a possibility. For argument's sake, let's say he pitches 18 games over .500 this year (a record of 20-2 or 22-4) and the rest of the Royals' staff goes .500. That's a 90-win season for Kansas City and a chance at winning the division.
If the rest of the Royals don't keep pace and fall off this season, he could start to remind everyone of Steve Carlton's 1972 season, when he won 27 games for the 59-win Phillies. Carlton would be tough to match, obviously, but I always think of what Sandy Koufax said to me when I was with the Dodgers and we were going through some tough seasons. He told me that I needed to think it was a different team when I was on the mound and not to let losing affect my attitude or expectations on the mound. Greinke's going to have to have that kind of mentality if the team really struggles this year. He needs to think he can go out every fifth day and carry his team to a win. And he just may be able to do that like Koufax and Carlton did.
He also has the advantage of playing in a small market, so the media crush is not a big factor. He is still under the radar for most sports fans and has a chance to stay there for a while because he's playing for the Royals. It's inevitable that he'll start to get the biggest share of the headlines and attention in Kansas City, but Greinke is the kind of classy, humble guy that will have his teammates rooting for him all year long. That sounds obvious, but if you are arrogant and start to think you are better than your teammates, things can get messy. That's not a concern here.
Greinke could be headed for a historic season.
