i know some hate kenpom...

[blackman-era-front-rower]

...and/or reject 'pure stats' as a guide to performance... but he's out with his "projections" schedule add-on, and unlike last year, i think he's WAY too kind to us... youch 22-9, 10-6?! (and that's with TWO losses to mizzou)  comments?

[steve dave]

i know some hate kenpom and/or reject 'pure stats' as a guide to performance

d00d, kenpom is like kenporn to this place.  Nobody here dislikes that guy. 

[KCcat28]

Kenpom was pretty accurate when it came to predicting our games last season. Maybe this is a good sign once again!

[Pete]

i know some hate kenpom and/or reject 'pure stats' as a guide to performance

d00d, kenpom is like kenporn to this place.  Nobody here dislikes that guy. 

That record gets us in the tournament.  The aTm and OSU road wins are the most iffy, and the guarantees to the post season...if the other wins hold.

Peronally, I suspect that we'll see a win against Mizzou at home and lose against aTm and OSU on the road....frosh and soph mind &@#%ings are not part of the Kenpom formula.

[ksu_FAN]

If you hate kenpom you pretty much hate the game of basketball.  Just sayin'.

[yosh]

Love KenPom

Just looking at the games he has us at 89% or better to win: 18-14 (6-10).  Equals best season of the Wooly era.

70% or better?  20-12 (8-8).  Easily into the NIT.

[ArchE_Cat]

You could even swap a win against mizzou w/ a loss in Lincoln (I hate that place). Who will guard the ghost of Maric

[mcmwcat]

anybody expecting a win in Stillwater is a frackin idiot.

[ArchE_Cat]

anybody expecting a win in Stillwater is a frackin idiot.

dood, have you watched Travis ford try to coach Byron Eaton and Obi Munelo? There is also a chance Mike Gundy could ruin bball at okie st.

[catzacker]

anybody expecting a win in Stillwater any road game not in Boulder is a frackin idiot.

just sayin'      

[SUPERKSUFAN]

anybody expecting a win in Stillwater any road game not in Boulder is a frackin idiot.

just sayin'      

You're not worried about the Hilton Magic?

[catzacker]

anybody expecting a win in Stillwater any road game not in Boulder is a frackin idiot.

just sayin'      

You're not worried about the Hilton Magic?

ummmm...yes...any place 'cept Boulder I wouldn't count as a win at all. 

[Oklahoma_Cat]

anybody expecting a win in Stillwater is a frackin idiot.

They're pretty rough this year, should be advantage Katz.

[prome05]

Lol at North Carolina Central projection. Not that it couldn't happen, but still .

[KSU4ME]

Losing to Texas?

[PowercatPat]

Losing to Mizzou at home?

[blackman-era-front-rower]

no prediction per se'... but what if we start the big12 at 2-5 with wins only at colorado and vs mizzou at home? couldn't we carry on without frank (whose head will have exploded by that time) and win the last 9 (plus uncc) to finish 23-8 and 11-5?  we aren't exactly challenged by a tough close-out to the conference season... at aTm and at mizzou aren't picnics by any means, but when we guard well and the rain falls anywhere near like last night, i can see it happening

[yoga-lika_abana]

I think 8-8 or worse is more realistic The Nubbs will beat us one of those games and I don't think we will beat Baylor that one will probably get ugly. jmo.

[Squeak]

I really, really like KenPom's work, but these projections are not "his", per se, just based on his math & formula.  It's not how he thinks we'll do -- just what his computer spits out.

So far, it's statistically still too early to tell too much, and it'll probably be somewhat inconsistent and variable until we get a few games into conference play with all the turd teams that everyone plays.  The whoopin' last night was off-the-charts as far as per-possession stats go, so it's probably a little skewed to the good.  The more data points it has, the higher the percentage it'll be accurate.  All I can say is that I hope it's right.

Yes, I'm a math nerd. 

[rundown87]

I know it says 10-6 is the projection, but if you go by the projected wins, we go 11-5. . .

[Skycat]

I know it says 10-6 is the projection, but if you go by the projected wins, we go 11-5. . .

[rundown87]

I know it says 10-6 is the projection, but if you go by the projected wins, we go 11-5. . .

I don't know what that's for.  I just think it's odd that it says projection is 10-6, but if you look at the single game projections, then they show we go 11-5.

[Squeak]

I know it says 10-6 is the projection, but if you go by the projected wins, we go 11-5. . .

I don't know what that's for.  I just think it's odd that it says projection is 10-6, but if you look at the single game projections, then they show we go 11-5.

It's in the FAQ.  Basically, if 3 games are 52 likely to win, you'll probably lose one of them.  It kinda accounts for deviation from the predicted.

In other words, being 90% likely to win 10 games is much different than 51% likely to win 10 games.  Both are technically 10-0, but the odds will probably catch up with you in scenario 2 and will probably lead to something along the lines of 6-4 or 5-5 -- that's what KenPom means.

Hope this didn't just confuse people further.

[doom]

anybody expecting a win in Stillwater is a frackin idiot.

They're pretty rough this year, should be advantage Katz.

At this point in the season of course they are still rough under a new coach, but it's the next to last game on our schedule.  Should be about a 10-15 pt loss.  I'd love to be wring but...

[mcmwcat]

who is this kenny pomeroy anyway?  any prediction less than 13-3 is an insult to my intelligence

[FHSU92]

I really, really like KenPom's work, but these projections are not "his", per se, just based on his math & formula.  It's not how he thinks we'll do -- just what his computer spits out.

So far, it's statistically still too early to tell too much, and it'll probably be somewhat inconsistent and variable until we get a few games into conference play with all the turd teams that everyone plays.  The whoopin' last night was off-the-charts as far as per-possession stats go, so it's probably a little skewed to the good.  The more data points it has, the higher the percentage it'll be accurate.  All I can say is that I hope it's right.

Yes, I'm a math nerd. 

It's kinda like Bracketology, the closer it gets to bracket time (especially once conf 'ships are determined) the more accurate it is.

[Bookcat]

I think we lose in Lincoln. I fracking hate going to the Devaney Center. Sucky building, sucky fans.....and they always pull out some fluke shooting night. Kstate doesn't play well there.

[mcmwcat]

I think we lose in Lincoln. I fracking hate going to the Devaney Center. Sucky building, sucky fans.....and they always pull out some fluke shooting night. Kstate doesn't play well there.

we need tim ellis back!

[ksu_FAN]

I think we lose in Lincoln. I fracking hate going to the Devaney Center. Sucky building, sucky fans.....and they always pull out some fluke shooting night. Kstate doesn't play well there.

QFT!

Hard to decide what's more intimidating, Hilton Magic or Nebrasketball?

[catzacker]

I think we lose in Lincoln. I fracking hate going to the Devaney Center. Sucky building, sucky fans.....and they always pull out some fluke shooting night. Kstate doesn't play well there.

QFT!

Hard to decide what's more intimidating, Hilton Magic or Nebrasketball?

without a doubt Nebrasketball.  the losses in Hilton have, for the most part, been explainable (the more talented team won - ISU) ...but NU?....we've lost to some not so good team there, often.  it's f'ing maddening.