Overall
10-20-1 -13.86 units
2 units (or more): 4-7 -6.67 units
FRIDAY
Kansas@Toledo
I decided to do a little write up about this game, heres my handicapping thoughts.
kansas is 3-17 SU under mark mangino in true road contests with wins coming against tulsa, wyoming and rival mizzou dating back to 2002. kansas did not have a road win last season and all of their losses were by more than a TD.
kansas also has a redshirt freshman starting his first road game along with still trying to break in 8 new starters on defense. Even though they are 2-0, kansas has struggled in their first two games at home against lowly I-AA Northwestern St (49-18, most of ku's scores came from special teams) and Louisianna-Monroe (21-19, monroe missed 2 FG's and an XP, plus a chance to tie with a 2pt conv). ku is currently 79th in total defense including 110th in passing defense giving up 297yards/game through the air. In addition to all the new starters on def, there have been injuries and suspensions in the secondary. It is rumored their preseason all big 12 starting corner will return for friday's game but it is not certain yet.
This is Toledo's home opener after a 3 OT loss at another big 12 north team, iowa st (43-45) and a bad loss at western michigan(10-31) last week. Toledo has been a strong home team going 34-2 SU since 1999.
Despite being 0-2, Toledo has fielded a strong passing offense, averaging 292 yrds good for 13th in the nation.
With this line going from -5.5 to -3.5, i think Toledo is a pretty solid play. Asking a redshirt freshman to win a game on the road with a suspect defense that plays into the strength of the home team spells trouble for kansas.
Toledo -3.5 2 units
might add even more to this bet later, i feel really good about it. Time to get on a roll.
