Funny to see posters stressing since we're used to getting hosed...

[Bookcat]

and we've come to the conclusion that bad things can and usually happen to us.
Asbury, Wooly, Pasco running with the ball, getting screwed last year, Manny Dies...long list.

but, let's see here.

• #3 RPI Conference in the nation
  
  Predicted 5-6 teams might get invited...(I'm guessing 5)..
  
  We're the THREE SEED all by ourselves. 4-12 didn't win 10 conference games..
  
  have a win over (then) #2 team on our resume.
  
  Finished the year with 2 wins to fight off a 4 game slide.
  
  We have Beasley.

If we were left out of the dance then it would be obvious that there is some sort of consipiracy because there have been LOTS of teams with alot WORSE resumes that have gotten in. (see '07 Arkansas, '07 Stanford)...

[kougar24]

All the RPI sites I've seen, including kenpom, have the Big XII 3rd. Not sure where you're getting 1st.

[Bookcat]

All the RPI sites I've seen, including kenpom, have the Big XII 3rd. Not sure where you're getting 1st.

oops. Old data edit check.

[catzacker]

In terms of understanding what our record truly is perceived as, the Big 12 could do all the teams in the North (sans ku) a favor by just starting them out at 0-2 before conference play begins.  The weak Big 12 north is never, ever part of the discussion for ku's seeding. 

[AzCat]

Not stressing really but the scenario that leaves KSU out is pretty straightforward and, IMHO, more likely than not: the Big XII gets 5 teams; ku / UT / OU are locks; Baylor beats CU to move to 10 conference wins and a higher RPI than KSU locking up the fourth spot; A&M defeats ISU for Big XII win #9 setting up a KSU/A&M game for the fifth and final Big XII bid.  Advantage A&M: better OOC record, head-to-head vs KSU on a neutral floor in March; similar RPI; plays in tougher Big XII South. 

Don't fool yourselves, KSU is far from a lock at this point.

[kougar24]

Not stressing really but the scenario that leaves KSU out is pretty straightforward and, IMHO, more likely than not: the Big XII gets 5 teams; ku / UT / OU are locks; Baylor beats CU to move to 10 conference wins and a higher RPI than KSU locking up the fourth spot; A&M defeats ISU for Big XII win #9 setting up a KSU/A&M game for the fifth and final Big XII bid.  Advantage A&M: better OOC record, head-to-head vs KSU on a neutral floor in March; similar RPI; plays in tougher Big XII South. 

Don't fool yourselves, KSU is far from a lock at this point.

Azcat: far from lock.
Lunardi: lock.

I'll "take my chances" on Lunardi. And EVERY OTHER BRACKET GUY OUT THERE.

 

[Jesus Shuttlesworth]

A&M will lose to ISU.  KC is like a second home to those crazy 'Clones.  A&M has absolutely blown on the road. 

[steve dave]

A&M will lose to ISU.  KC is like a second home to those crazy 'Clones.  A&M has absolutely blown on the road. 

I agree that ISU has a good shot.  I'd go 50/50. 

[AzCat]

Not stressing really but the scenario that leaves KSU out is pretty straightforward and, IMHO, more likely than not: the Big XII gets 5 teams; ku / UT / OU are locks; Baylor beats CU to move to 10 conference wins and a higher RPI than KSU locking up the fourth spot; A&M defeats ISU for Big XII win #9 setting up a KSU/A&M game for the fifth and final Big XII bid.  Advantage A&M: better OOC record, head-to-head vs KSU on a neutral floor in March; similar RPI; plays in tougher Big XII South. 

Don't fool yourselves, KSU is far from a lock at this point.

Azcat: far from lock.
Lunardi: lock.

I'll "take my chances" on Lunardi. And EVERY OTHER BRACKET GUY OUT THERE.

 

The only saving grace for KSU is that the scenario that leaves them out has a lot of moving parts and they all have to hit so it's more likely than not that it won't come to pass but put your own number on it and try the math:

1. Big XII receives 5 or less bids (90% chance)
2. BU over CU (80% chance)
3. A&M over ISU (80% chance)
4. A&M over KSU (65% chance)

Thus I'd put the odds of KSU missing the NCAA tourney at just under 40% which is "far from a lock" in my book.

[kougar24]

1. Big XII receives 5 or less bids (90% chance) 70%
2. BU over CU (80% chance) 98%
3. A&M over ISU (80% chance) 51%
4. A&M over KSU (65% chance) 10%

[catzacker]

If I understood correctly last year, the field is pretty much set in terms of in/out before conference play begins.  KSU wasn't even in last year to begin the tourney, but this year I think we are.  The selection committee basically has to decide the last 5-8 spots based on scrub leagues getting more than one team (please win Butler).  KSU should be in as of right now, but my KSU inferiority complex will be running in high gear if we lose to A&M on Friday.  

Also, ISU is not beating A&M.  If ISU beats A&M, I won't post.....wait, nevermind.  

[AzCat]

KSU should be in as of right now ....

I agree but I think A&M has a shot at playing their way in and KSU has a shot at playing their way out. 

[catzacker]

KSU should be in as of right now ....

I agree but I think A&M has a shot at playing their way in and KSU has a shot at playing their way out. 

If I understand the process correctly, once you're in, you're in.  The teams that are "bubble" teams are the ones that are still on the committee's board but haven't been voted in.  At this point I think KSU is in.  While I wouldn't put it past the Committee, it would be terribly inconsistent for them to value one game at the end of the year in a conference tourney more than at the beginning in conference.  A&M's OOC is a fracking joke...it's 3rd worst in the Big 12 in SOS. 

[AzCat]

I suppose they could do to A&M what they did to KSU last year but I expect a Big XII South team would get better treatment than one from the North.

[catzacker]

I suppose they could do to A&M what they did to KSU last year but I expect a Big XII South team would get better treatment than one from the North.

I agree.  I don't know how the Committee weighs actual performance in games rather than just their results, but A&M has been absolutely non competitive in most of their losses.  5 of 8 have been by 15+, 3 have been 20+.  KSU hasn't lost by more than 14 and that was on the road against ku.